Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rangers are done for the season.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics36-24
AstrosAstros29-317.0
MarinersMariners27-339.0
AngelsAngels26-3410.0
RangersRangers22-3814.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
155146+0=150559%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
145826+10=144241%8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15545+0=154964%1
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
145517+10=144836%6
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1555+2+0=155764%4
TEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
14534+10=145936%5
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
1552134=153553%12
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1456+52+7=151547%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Benjamin, Wes
Benjamin
145816+0=144244%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Young, Alex
Young
149520+10=148556%7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
1460232=143543%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
149214+9=148757%7
9/21Monday, Sept. 214:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146115+0=144639%5
LAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1491+21+10=152261%8
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
145915+0=144444%7
LAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149316+10=148756%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 199:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1460+51+0=151149%3
LAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1492+18+10=152051%4
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Herget, Jimmy
Herget
1461173=144142%2
LAALAAAngels
Barria, Jaime
Barria
14913+10=149858%6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
146227+0=143535%1
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
155522+10=154365%2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146021+0=143934%1
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
155610+10=155666%0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
146112+0=144934%1
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
15551+9=156366%4
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
1540+7+0=154754%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1460+50+10=152046%6
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:45 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1538+8+0=154662%10
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
146214+10=145838%1
9/12Saturday, Sept. 125:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Jefferies, Daulton
Jefferies
154015+0=152560%2
TEXTEXRangers
Goody, Nick
Goody
146014+10=145640%5
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
153944=153161%10
TEXTEXRangers
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
146115+10=145639%6
9/10Thursday, Sept. 104:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Bundy, Dylan
Bundy
1489+22+0=151158%6
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146219+10=145342%2
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
14918+0=148354%3
TEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
146015+10=145546%7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Teheran, Julio
Teheran
149481=148546%1
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1458+45+6=150954%7
9/7Monday, Sept. 74:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
14607+0=145345%4
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1451+28+10=148955%8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
146128+0=143345%3
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1450+6+10=146655%4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146220+0=144247%3
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1449+4+10=146353%5
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Cody, Kyle
Cody
1464184=144250%3
SEASEAMariners
Kikuchi, Yusei
Kikuchi
144716+14=144550%6
9/3Thursday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1465+48+0=151338%4
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1566+19+10=159562%8
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
146613+0=145336%1
HOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
156619+10=155764%2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
146419+0=144534%6
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
156720+15=156266%5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:35 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1597+9+0=160670%7
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146619+10=145730%2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
159521+0=157457%7
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1467+50+10=152743%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
159894=158564%2
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1464+8+12=148436%6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15386+0=153260%3
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
146517+10=145840%1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1536+2+0=153861%10
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
146716+10=146139%3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
153774=152650%2
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1466+51+6=152350%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1468+11+0=147955%1
SEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
144210+10=144245%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147120+0=145149%1
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1439+10+10=145951%10
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
1473123=145854%4
SEASEAMariners
Margevicius, Nick
Margevicius
143718+10=142946%7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147416+0=145840%7
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1510+10+10=153060%8
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1476+493=152251%3
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
15082+7=151349%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
150722+0=148548%6
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1477+12+10=149952%4
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1504+63=150756%14
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
148021+7=146644%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
14818+0=147344%6
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1496+12+10=151856%10
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
148022+0=145839%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1498+26+10=153461%4
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1479+421=152053%3
COLCOLRockies
Castellani, Ryan
Castellani
149810+12=150047%2
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1442+12+0=145448%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147718+10=146952%7
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1443+26+0=146946%2
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+10+10=149654%4
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1440+04=143645%10
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147918+10=147155%2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:35 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1497+6+0=150346%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1478+42+10=153054%7
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
14998+0=149153%0
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147616+10=147047%2
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1500+74=150356%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147518+6=146344%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+12+0=148843%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1529+0+10=153957%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147718+0=145938%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+5+10=154362%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1479+43+1=152351%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
152616+7=151749%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:05 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147718+0=145947%9
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1458+14+10=148253%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147915+0=146450%3
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1456+1+10=146750%7
7/31Friday, July 319 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1482+182=149855%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14531+10=146245%9
7/29Wednesday, July 294:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1509+7+0=151648%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1481+37+10=152852%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
150763=149853%4
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
148219+12=147547%1
7/26Sunday, July 262:35 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14897+0=148247%5
TEXTEXRangers
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
1484+11+10=150553%2
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1488+22+0=151050%3
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1485+17+10=151250%2
7/24Friday, July 248:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1489+253=151147%0
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1484+36+10=153053%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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