Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rangers have a 22% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1476, down 3 points from last week.

AL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
AthleticsAthletics10-495%53%
AstrosAstros6-73.591%42%
AngelsAngels5-95.034%3%
RangersRangers4-85.022%2%
MarinersMariners5-105.57%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
14998+0=149153%
TEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147616+10=147047%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:35 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Heaney, Andrew
Heaney
1499+7+0=150647%
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1476+43+10=152953%
8/10Monday, Aug. 109:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1440+24=143846%
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147617+10=146954%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 119:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
1440+27+0=146746%
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+10+10=149654%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 129:05 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1440+13+0=145348%
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147616+10=147052%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
1476161=145938%
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1502+29+12=154362%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1476+43+0=151951%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1502+0+10=151249%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147617+0=145940%
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1502+20+10=153260%
8/17Monday, Aug. 179:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Davies, Zach
Davies
1507+33=150752%
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+10+7=149348%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1507+10+0=151757%
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147616+10=147043%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 199:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+03=147344%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+7=151456%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147644%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
1507+0+10=151756%
8/21Friday, Aug. 219:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+03=147353%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145247%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
8/24Monday, Aug. 249:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+14=152857%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+6=148243%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 259:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 269:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
8/28Friday, Aug. 289:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+14=158864%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148636%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159265%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148635%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:35 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1591+1+0=159265%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148635%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+12=157964%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 32:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+04=147253%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145247%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
9/7Monday, Sept. 74:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147654%
SEASEAMariners
Pitcher TBD
1440+2+10=145246%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 89:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+11=149952%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+6=148248%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 99:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150052%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148648%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 104:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+0=150052%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148648%
9/11Friday, Sept. 119:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+14=152856%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148644%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:05 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:35 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153257%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148643%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+12=157964%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147636%
HOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+10=157764%
9/18Friday, Sept. 189:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+03=147345%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151055%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:15 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151055%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151055%
9/21Monday, Sept. 21TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+1+10=151055%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 229:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+9=151355%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+0=147645%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1504+0+10=151455%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+04=156361%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+7=148339%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156761%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148639%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156761%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148639%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1567+0+0=156761%
TEXTEXRangers
Pitcher TBD
1476+0+10=148639%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 79:05 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Canning, Griffin
Canning
1500+74=150356%3
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147518+6=146344%4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 63:40 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1476+12+0=148843%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
1529+0+10=153957%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 59:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
147718+0=145938%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1528+5+10=154362%6
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 49:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1479+43+1=152351%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
152616+7=151749%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 24:05 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Allard, Kolby
Allard
147718+0=145947%9
SFSFGiants
Samardzija, Jeff
Samardzija
1458+14+10=148253%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 19:10 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
147915+0=146450%3
SFSFGiants
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
1456+1+10=146750%7
7/31Friday, July 319 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1482+182=149855%2
SFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
14531+10=146245%9
7/29Wednesday, July 294:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1509+7+0=151648%4
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1481+37+10=152852%7
7/28Tuesday, July 289:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
150763=149853%4
TEXTEXRangers
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
148219+12=147547%1
7/26Sunday, July 262:35 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14897+0=148247%5
TEXTEXRangers
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
1484+11+10=150553%2
7/25Saturday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1488+22+0=151050%3
TEXTEXRangers
Minor, Mike
Minor
1485+17+10=151250%2
7/24Friday, July 248:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1489+253=151147%0
TEXTEXRangers
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1484+36+10=153053%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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