2020 MLB Predictions

The Rays are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays40-20	—	✓	✓
Yankees Yankees33-27	7.0	✓	—
Blue Jays Blue Jays32-28	8.0	✓	—
Orioles Orioles25-35	15.0	—	—
Red Sox Red Sox24-36	16.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/27Tuesday, Oct. 278:08 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1563	+6	+2	=1571	41%	1
10/27Tuesday, Oct. 278:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1611	+8	+2	=1621	59%	3
10/25Sunday, Oct. 258:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1609	+23	+0	=1632	63%	4
10/25Sunday, Oct. 258:08 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1564	–2	+0	=1562	37%	2
10/24Saturday, Oct. 248:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1611	–6	+0	=1605	59%	7
10/24Saturday, Oct. 248:08 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1562	–4	+0	=1558	41%	8
10/23Friday, Oct. 238:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1609	+18	+2	=1629	58%	6
10/23Friday, Oct. 238:08 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1565	+21	+2	=1588	42%	2
10/21Wednesday, Oct. 218:08 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1562	+4	+0	=1566	39%	6
10/21Wednesday, Oct. 218:08 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1612	+13	+0	=1625	61%	4
10/20Tuesday, Oct. 208:11 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1564	+1	+5	=1570	38%	3
10/20Tuesday, Oct. 208:11 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1609	+22	+2	=1633	62%	8
10/17Saturday, Oct. 178:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1559	–5	+0	=1554	45%	2
10/17Saturday, Oct. 178:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1562	+17	+0	=1579	55%	4
10/16Friday, Oct. 166:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1557	–9	+0	=1548	46%	7
10/16Friday, Oct. 166:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1565	+5	+0	=1570	54%	4
10/15Thursday, Oct. 155:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1567	–30	+0	=1537	50%	3
10/15Thursday, Oct. 155:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1555	–19	+0	=1536	50%	4
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 148:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1568	+4	+0	=1572	52%	3
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 148:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1553	+8	+0	=1561	48%	4
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 138:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1566	–5	+0	=1561	51%	5
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 138:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1556	+0	+0	=1556	49%	2
10/12Monday, Oct. 124:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1558	–6	+0	=1552	45%	2
10/12Monday, Oct. 124:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1564	+14	+0	=1578	55%	4
10/11Sunday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1559	–9	+5	=1555	47%	1
10/11Sunday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1563	+5	+2	=1570	53%	2
10/9Friday, Oct. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1564	+44	+0	=1608	58%	1
10/9Friday, Oct. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1561	+3	+0	=1564	42%	2
10/8Thursday, Oct. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Thompson	1563	–26	+0	=1537	47%	1
10/8Thursday, Oct. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1561	–11	+0	=1550	53%	5
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1561	+13	+0	=1574	54%	8
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1564	–11	+0	=1553	46%	4
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1566	–29	+0	=1537	45%	5
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1559	+4	+0	=1563	55%	7
10/5Monday, Oct. 58:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1563	+46	+7	=1616	57%	9
10/5Monday, Oct. 58:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1562	+9	+7	=1578	43%	3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1490	+33	+0	=1523	41%	2
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1559	+4	+10	=1573	59%	8
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1491	+11	–1	=1501	36%	1
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1558	+5	+12	=1575	64%	3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+28	+0	=1528	49%	0
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1556	–30	+10	=1536	51%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1501	+23	+0	=1524	48%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1555	–28	+10	=1537	52%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1502	–18	–1	=1483	37%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1554	+14	+9	=1577	63%	6
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1552	+4	+0	=1556	57%	8
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1519	–24	+10	=1505	43%	5
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1554	+8	+0	=1562	57%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1517	–15	+10	=1512	43%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fairbanks	1553	–27	–2	=1524	41%	2
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1518	+58	+10	=1586	59%	1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1554	–8	+0	=1546	62%	1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1435	+14	+10	=1459	38%	2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1554	+14	+0	=1568	69%	3
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1436	–17	+10	=1429	31%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1553	+3	–3	=1553	66%	2
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1437	–7	+7	=1437	34%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1438	–6	–3	=1429	35%	6
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1552	–25	+7	=1534	65%	10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1551	+6	–3	=1554	63%	3
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1439	+11	+10	=1460	37%	1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Voth	1520	–32	+0	=1488	43%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fairbanks	1553	–29	+10	=1534	57%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1522	–15	–1	=1506	46%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1551	–30	+12	=1533	54%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1484	–2	+0	=1482	37%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1553	+16	+10	=1579	63%	3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1485	+10	+0	=1495	40%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1552	+3	+10	=1565	60%	5
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Triggs	1487	+2	+0	=1489	40%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1550	+4	+10	=1564	60%	11
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kickham	1486	+1	–1	=1486	43%	4
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1551	–27	+9	=1533	57%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1552	–5	+0	=1547	54%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1524	–16	+10	=1518	46%	5
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1555	+16	–3	=1568	51%	1
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1522	+31	+7	=1560	49%	6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1465	–1	+0	=1464	36%	4
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1554	+3	+10	=1567	64%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1462	+9	+0	=1471	36%	7
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1557	+6	+10	=1573	64%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1463	+11	+0	=1474	41%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1556	–24	+9	=1541	59%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1554	+13	+0	=1567	50%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1570	–11	+10	=1569	50%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1555	–29	+0	=1526	43%	3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1569	–6	+10	=1573	57%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1554	–4	–3	=1547	39%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1570	+41	+9	=1620	61%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1552	+8	+0	=1560	60%	12
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1463	+16	+10	=1489	40%	7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1550	–30	+0	=1520	56%	4
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1464	+8	+10	=1482	44%	0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1549	–9	+0	=1540	60%	2
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Sanchez	1465	–7	+9	=1467	40%	0
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1427	+0	+0	=1427	35%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1548	–27	+10	=1531	65%	4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1427	–7	–1	=1419	32%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1548	–7	+10	=1551	68%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1483	–12	+0	=1471	36%	6
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1550	+9	+10	=1569	64%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1484	–17	+0	=1467	41%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1549	–29	+10	=1530	59%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1485	+27	+0	=1512	49%	1
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Slegers	1548	–36	+10	=1522	51%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1483	+11	–3	=1491	42%	6
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1549	–6	+7	=1550	58%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1546	–30	+0	=1516	41%	10
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1576	–8	+10	=1578	59%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1545	–10	+0	=1535	35%	4
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1578	+51	+10	=1639	65%	2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1543	+11	+0	=1554	45%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1580	–3	+10	=1587	55%	3
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1542	–4	+0	=1538	56%	7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1479	+9	+10	=1498	44%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1541	–7	+0	=1534	56%	3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Anderson	1479	+0	+10	=1489	44%	2
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1544	–25	–2	=1517	56%	4
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1476	–12	+12	=1476	44%	12
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1541	–9	+0	=1532	54%	17
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hart	1501	–3	+10	=1508	46%	8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1540	+6	+0	=1546	57%	9
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1503	–16	+10	=1497	43%	5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kittredge	1537	–33	+0	=1504	50%	8
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1505	–12	+10	=1503	50%	2
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1536	–5	–3	=1528	52%	8
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brasier	1506	–5	+10	=1511	48%	7
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1573	–8	+0	=1565	51%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1535	+16	+10	=1561	49%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1574	–38	+0	=1536	54%	3
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Thompson	1534	–31	+10	=1513	46%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1573	+52	+0	=1625	62%	8
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1535	–6	+10	=1539	38%	4
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1574	–4	–3	=1567	53%	0
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1534	+2	+12	=1548	47%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1502	–14	+0	=1488	42%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1537	–3	+10	=1544	58%	0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1504	+7	–1	=1510	43%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1535	+14	+9	=1558	57%	5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1538	–6	+0	=1532	67%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Milone	1417	–16	+10	=1411	33%	5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1539	–6	+0	=1533	66%	4
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	LeBlanc	1416	–8	+10	=1418	34%	5
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1542	+4	–3	=1543	67%	3
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1413	+1	+10	=1424	33%	6
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1543	–5	+0	=1538	50%	1
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1530	+1	+10	=1541	50%	2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1544	+15	–2	=1557	49%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1528	+27	+8	=1563	51%	7
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1530	–27	+0	=1503	44%	2
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1543	–7	+10	=1546	56%	5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Foltynewicz	1533	+3	–3	=1533	49%	5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1540	–8	+10	=1542	51%	14
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Hatch	1479	–19	+0	=1460	37%	5
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1539	+6	+10	=1555	63%	6
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1480	+11	+0	=1491	43%	1
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1538	–7	+10	=1541	57%	4
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1479	+23	–3	=1499	40%	6
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1539	+21	+10	=1570	60%	4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments