Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rays have a 78% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1535, down 4 points from last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees9-499%80%
RaysRays6-73.078%14%
Red SoxRed Sox5-84.044%4%
Blue JaysBlue Jays4-74.031%2%
OriolesOrioles6-73.07%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+0=162562%
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15356+10=153938%
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157354%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154546%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15739+0=156451%
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+15+10=156049%
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
153573=152553%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150611+10=150547%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153553%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1535+4+0=153958%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150633+10=148342%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15356+0=152955%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+10=149845%
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+02=153358%
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147713+12=147642%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+15+0=155059%
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14772+10=148541%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 163:07 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15357+0=152855%
TORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1477+6+10=149345%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153536%
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+10=163564%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+03=147440%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+7=154260%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147740%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154560%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147740%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154560%
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147740%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154560%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142111=141933%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154567%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142033%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154567%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142033%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154567%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+02=153359%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+7=147341%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153558%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147642%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153558%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147642%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+03=153243%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+9=154461%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154561%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146639%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154561%
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+03=153248%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+7=154852%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153548%
WSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+10=155152%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
150611=150444%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+9=154456%
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+01=154049%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+12=154751%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 163:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154149%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154551%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+03=153264%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143036%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153565%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143035%
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+02=153350%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153150%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153551%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153551%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153149%
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+01=150044%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+9=154456%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 266:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150144%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
157443=156753%0
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1534+2+12=154847%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150214+0=148842%5
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15373+10=154458%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+71=151043%1
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+14+9=155857%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15386+0=153267%1
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
141716+10=141133%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15396+0=153366%4
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14168+10=141834%5
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1542+43=154367%3
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1413+1+10=142433%6
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15435+0=153850%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1530+1+10=154150%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1544+152=155749%4
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+27+8=156351%7
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153027+0=150344%2
TBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15437+10=154656%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1533+33=153349%5
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15408+10=154251%14
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Hatch, Thomas
Hatch
147919+0=146037%5
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1539+6+10=155563%6
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+11+0=149143%1
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15387+10=154157%4
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1479+233=149940%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1539+21+10=157060%4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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