Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Rays have a 17% chance of winning the World Series.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
RaysRays40-20
YankeesYankees33-277.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays32-288.0
OriolesOrioles25-3515.0
Red SoxRed Sox24-3616.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/27Tuesday, Oct. 278:08 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1563+6+2=157141%
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1611+8+2=162159%
10/28Wednesday, Oct. 288:09 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1563+18+0=158140%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1611+21+0=163260%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/25Sunday, Oct. 258:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1609+23+0=163263%4
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15642+0=156237%2
10/24Saturday, Oct. 248:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
16116+0=160559%7
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15624+0=155841%8
10/23Friday, Oct. 238:08 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1609+18+2=162958%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1565+21+2=158842%2
10/21Wednesday, Oct. 218:08 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1562+4+0=156639%6
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1612+13+0=162561%4
10/20Tuesday, Oct. 208:11 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1564+1+5=157038%3
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1609+22+2=163362%8
10/17Saturday, Oct. 178:37 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15595+0=155445%2
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1562+17+0=157955%4
10/16Friday, Oct. 166:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15579+0=154846%7
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1565+5+0=157054%4
10/15Thursday, Oct. 155:07 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
156730+0=153750%3
HOUHOUAstros
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
155519+0=153650%4
10/14Wednesday, Oct. 148:40 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1568+4+0=157252%3
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1553+8+0=156148%4
10/13Tuesday, Oct. 138:40 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15665+0=156151%5
HOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1556+0+0=155649%2
10/12Monday, Oct. 124:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15586+0=155245%2
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1564+14+0=157855%4
10/11Sunday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15599+5=155547%1
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1563+5+2=157053%2
10/9Friday, Oct. 97:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1564+44+0=160858%1
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1561+3+0=156442%2
10/8Thursday, Oct. 87:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Thompson, Ryan
Thompson
156326+0=153747%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
156111+0=155053%5
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 77:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1561+13+0=157454%8
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
156411+0=155346%4
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 68:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
156629+0=153745%5
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1559+4+0=156355%7
10/5Monday, Oct. 58:07 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1563+46+7=161657%9
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1562+9+7=157843%3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 304 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1490+33+0=152341%2
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1559+4+10=157359%8
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 295 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1491+111=150136%1
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1558+5+12=157564%3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1500+28+0=152849%0
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155630+10=153651%5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1501+23+0=152448%3
TBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
155528+10=153752%4
9/25Friday, Sept. 256:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
1502181=148337%4
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1554+14+9=157763%6
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1552+4+0=155657%8
NYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
151924+10=150543%5
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1554+8+0=156257%2
NYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
151715+10=151243%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Fairbanks, Peter
Fairbanks
1553272=152441%2
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1518+58+10=158659%1
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15548+0=154662%1
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1435+14+10=145938%2
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1554+14+0=156869%3
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
143617+10=142931%1
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1553+33=155366%2
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14377+7=143734%1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:50 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Zimmermann, Bruce
Zimmermann
143863=142935%6
TBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
155225+7=153465%10
9/17Thursday, Sept. 174:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1551+63=155463%3
BALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1439+11+10=146037%1
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 161:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
152032+0=148843%4
TBTBRays
Fairbanks, Peter
Fairbanks
155329+10=153457%2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
1522151=150646%1
TBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
155130+12=153354%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14842+0=148237%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1553+16+10=157963%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1485+10+0=149540%4
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1552+3+10=156560%5
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Triggs, Andrew
Triggs
1487+2+0=148940%1
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1550+4+10=156460%11
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Kickham, Mike
Kickham
1486+11=148643%4
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155127+9=153357%3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15525+0=154754%3
WSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
152416+10=151846%5
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1555+163=156851%1
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1522+31+7=156049%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
14651+0=146436%4
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1554+3+10=156764%5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1462+9+0=147136%7
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1557+6+10=157364%3
9/4Friday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1463+11+0=147441%4
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155624+9=154159%5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1554+13+0=156750%5
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157011+10=156950%2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
155529+0=152643%3
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15696+10=157357%5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
155443=154739%5
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1570+41+9=162061%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1552+8+0=156060%12
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1463+16+10=148940%7
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155030+0=152056%4
MIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
1464+8+10=148244%0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15499+0=154060%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Sanchez, Sixto
Sanchez
14657+9=146740%0
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1427+0+0=142735%3
TBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
154827+10=153165%4
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:40 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
142771=141932%2
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15487+10=155168%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 243:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148312+0=147136%6
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1550+9+10=156964%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Thornton, Trent
Thornton
148417+0=146741%4
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
154929+10=153059%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1485+27+0=151249%1
TBTBRays
Slegers, Aaron
Slegers
154836+10=152251%2
8/21Friday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1483+113=149142%6
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15496+7=155058%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
154630+0=151641%10
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15768+10=157859%5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
154510+0=153535%4
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1578+51+10=163965%2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1543+11+0=155445%6
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15803+10=158755%3
8/16Sunday, Aug. 164 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15424+0=153856%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1479+9+10=149844%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15417+0=153456%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1479+0+10=148944%2
8/14Friday, Aug. 146:37 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
1544252=151756%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147612+12=147644%12
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15419+0=153254%17
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hart, Kyle
Hart
15013+10=150846%8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1540+6+0=154657%9
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150316+10=149743%5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Kittredge, Andrew
Kittredge
153733+0=150450%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150512+10=150350%2
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
153653=152852%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Brasier, Ryan
Brasier
15065+10=151148%7
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15738+0=156551%3
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+16+10=156149%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
157438+0=153654%3
TBTBRays
Thompson, Ryan
Thompson
153431+10=151346%5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+0=162562%8
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15356+10=153938%4
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
157443=156753%0
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1534+2+12=154847%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150214+0=148842%5
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15373+10=154458%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+71=151043%1
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+14+9=155857%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 21:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15386+0=153267%1
BALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
141716+10=141133%5
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15396+0=153366%4
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
14168+10=141834%5
7/31Friday, July 317:35 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1542+43=154367%3
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1413+1+10=142433%6
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15435+0=153850%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1530+1+10=154150%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1544+152=155749%4
ATLATLBraves
Soroka, Mike
Soroka
1528+27+8=156351%7
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153027+0=150344%2
TBTBRays
Chirinos, Yonny
Chirinos
15437+10=154656%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1533+33=153349%5
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15408+10=154251%14
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Hatch, Thomas
Hatch
147919+0=146037%5
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1539+6+10=155563%6
7/25Saturday, July 253:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1480+11+0=149143%1
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15387+10=154157%4
7/24Friday, July 246:40 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1479+233=149940%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1539+21+10=157060%4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments