Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Red Sox are done for the season.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
RaysRays40-20
YankeesYankees33-277.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays32-288.0
OriolesOrioles25-3515.0
Red SoxRed Sox24-3616.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
1488+0+0=148842%9
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
15417+10=154458%1
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Houck, Tanner
Houck
1486+12+0=149843%8
ATLATLBraves
Davidson, Tucker
Davidson
15448+10=154657%2
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
148643=147943%7
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
154322+10=153157%8
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14334+0=142940%13
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
1491+2+10=150360%1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1435+14+0=144941%1
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1489+11+10=151059%9
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1437+9+0=144643%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
14872+12=149757%8
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:07 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
157126+0=154557%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Houck, Tanner
Houck
1484+5+10=149943%10
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
156818+0=155058%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
14861+10=149542%0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
1567152=155058%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14872+7=149242%5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1486+11+0=149753%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14696+10=147347%3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Kickham, Mike
Kickham
1488+1+0=148954%4
MIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
146713+10=146446%8
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Houck, Tanner
Houck
1486+0+0=148650%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+10+10=148850%0
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14842+0=148237%6
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1553+16+10=157963%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1485+10+0=149540%4
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1552+3+10=156560%5
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Triggs, Andrew
Triggs
1487+2+0=148940%1
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1550+4+10=156460%11
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Kickham, Mike
Kickham
1486+11=148643%4
TBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
155127+9=153357%3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
14844+0=148048%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150722+10=149552%2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
1485+2+0=148748%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150611+9=150452%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
148914+0=147547%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Triggs, Andrew
Triggs
1487+2+10=149953%8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1490+22=149053%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
148625+8=146947%9
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
148562=147750%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Stripling, Ross
Stripling
149119+8=148050%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149019+0=147149%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
148619+10=147751%7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1488+03=148549%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14883+10=149551%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Erlin, Robbie
Erlin
153918+0=152153%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Leyer, Robinson
Leyer
1489+2+10=150147%5
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
15373+0=153459%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
149127+10=147441%3
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1536+232=155758%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
14922+10=150042%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Voth, Austin
Voth
153131+0=150052%5
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
149016+10=148448%9
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Sanchez, Anibal
Sanchez
153217+0=151553%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
14894+10=149547%5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1530+22+0=155257%10
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
1491+0+10=150143%2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
1494+2+0=149653%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Merryweather, Julian
Merryweather
148315+10=147847%9
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Hart, Kyle
Hart
149312+0=148148%9
TORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
1485+0+7=149252%7
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
149419+0=147558%4
BALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
142615+10=142142%5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:35 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14957+0=148857%4
BALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1425+3+10=143843%5
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:35 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
14942+0=149255%8
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1426+19+10=145545%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:35 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1492+42=149458%7
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
1428+1+10=143942%1
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150214+0=148850%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hart, Kyle
Hart
149013+10=148750%6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+0=148350%13
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
149320+8=148150%6
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14944+0=149038%3
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157914+10=157562%6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
1495+0+0=149541%2
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157830+10=155859%4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1497+10+0=150740%5
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15767+10=157960%11
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
149822=149431%3
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1574+49+12=163569%10
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15419+0=153254%17
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hart, Kyle
Hart
15013+10=150846%8
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1540+6+0=154657%9
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150316+10=149743%5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Kittredge, Andrew
Kittredge
153733+0=150450%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150512+10=150350%2
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
153653=152852%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Brasier, Ryan
Brasier
15065+10=151148%7
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1478+6+0=148445%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1505+6+10=152155%5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14772+0=147547%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+10=149853%1
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147893=146648%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150533+9=148152%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150214+0=148842%5
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15373+10=154458%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+71=151043%1
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+14+9=155857%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brice, Austin
Brice
15053+0=150239%7
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15746+10=157861%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150615+0=149138%2
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15736+10=157762%5
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
1507311=147538%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157215+8=156562%5
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150618+0=148845%4
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152713+10=152455%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+72=150938%6
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1528+55+8=159162%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152626+0=150048%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hall, Matt
Hall
15065+10=151152%3
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1525252=149848%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Osich, Josh
Osich
15085+10=151352%4
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
141310+0=140337%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
151023+10=149763%4
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14103+0=140737%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
151320+10=150363%2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1412152=139532%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1511+2+10=152368%13

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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