Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Red Sox have a 44% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1506, the same as last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees9-499%80%
RaysRays6-73.078%14%
Red SoxRed Sox5-84.044%4%
Blue JaysBlue Jays4-74.031%2%
OriolesOrioles6-73.07%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14772+0=147547%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+10=149853%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1477+6+0=148344%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1506+6+10=152256%
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
153573=152553%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150611+10=150547%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153553%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1535+4+0=153958%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150633+10=148342%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:30 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15356+0=152955%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+10=149845%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1506+62=151033%
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+12=163767%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:15 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150611+0=149539%
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15739+10=157461%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150543%
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157330+10=155357%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150633+0=147335%
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15731+10=158265%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:30 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150115+0=148649%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150618+8=149651%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 191:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+0=150148%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151552%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
150612=150360%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143040%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150561%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143039%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150561%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143039%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150561%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143039%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 256:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150553%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+7=148447%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 266:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150553%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148747%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150553%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148747%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+02=153954%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+8=151346%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:30 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151546%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
1541+0+0=154154%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151546%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+02=153453%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153653%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:30 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+0=153653%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151547%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 37:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+03=147444%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151556%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151555%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151555%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147745%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151555%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 84:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150549%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+9=151051%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150549%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1501+0+10=151151%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
150611=150444%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+9=154456%
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154556%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150554%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150554%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150554%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+10=147646%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+02=157158%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+7=151242%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157358%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151542%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157358%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151542%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142036%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+12=151764%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142037%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151563%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142037%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151563%
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
150613=150244%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150544%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154656%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:30 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
147893=146648%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150533+9=148152%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 56:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150214+0=148842%5
TBTBRays
Yarbrough, Ryan
Yarbrough
15373+10=154458%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+71=151043%1
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+14+9=155857%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brice, Austin
Brice
15053+0=150239%7
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15746+10=157861%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150615+0=149138%2
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15736+10=157762%5
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
1507311=147538%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157215+8=156562%5
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150618+0=148845%4
NYMNYMMets
Matz, Steven
Matz
152713+10=152455%2
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1504+72=150938%6
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1528+55+8=159162%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152626+0=150048%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hall, Matt
Hall
15065+10=151152%3
7/27Monday, July 277:30 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1525252=149848%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Osich, Josh
Osich
15085+10=151352%4
7/26Sunday, July 261:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
141310+0=140337%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
151023+10=149763%4
7/25Saturday, July 251:35 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14103+0=140737%7
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
151320+10=150363%2
7/24Friday, July 247:30 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Milone, Tommy
Milone
1412152=139532%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1511+2+10=152368%13

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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