Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs34-26
RedsReds31-293.0
CardinalsCardinals30-283.0
BrewersBrewers29-315.0
PiratesPirates19-4115.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/1Thursday, Oct. 112 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1518+9+0=152743%0
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1539+16+10=156557%5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3012 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1519+21+2=154244%0
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1537+21+15=157356%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1518+13+0=153145%5
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1552+1+10=156355%3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1519+13+0=153245%3
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1550+6+10=156655%7
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1517191=149740%7
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1553+2+12=156760%2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
151412+0=150244%1
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1515+17+10=154256%6
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
15134+0=150946%3
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1516+12+10=153854%2
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1514+262=153850%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1514+13+10=153750%6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
152418+0=150651%3
CINCINReds
Lorenzen, Michael
Lorenzen
151223+10=149949%7
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1522+8+0=153048%5
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1515+18+10=154352%0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Stiever, Jonathan
Stiever
1524192=150350%1
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151220+12=150450%7
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1445+0+0=144538%0
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1511+10+10=153162%1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1446+20+0=146646%1
CINCINReds
Lorenzen, Michael
Lorenzen
151027+10=149354%4
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14484+0=144442%4
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
150819+10=149958%9
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1449+103=145639%1
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1507+18+8=153361%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150516+0=148946%10
STLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
15199+10=152054%5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
150723+0=148444%1
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15174+10=152356%7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+42=150746%3
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1519+6+10=153554%1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1507+20+0=152753%5
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
152323+10=151047%8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1505+11+0=151641%3
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+45+10=158059%0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150619+0=148745%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152414+10=152055%3
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
150823+0=148552%2
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1455+5+10=147048%3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1506152=148954%6
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14576+8=145946%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:25 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1455+72=146041%4
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1507+12+8=152759%3
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+4+0=151056%4
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1457+4+10=147144%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
151818+0=150051%3
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
150520+10=149549%4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
15139+0=150444%16
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1510+30+10=155056%2
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151292=150149%7
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151110+10=151151%5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152224+0=149846%10
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+3+10=152854%1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15234+0=151953%5
CINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
151428+10=149647%6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1521+37+0=155853%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1515+9+10=153447%0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1522+17+0=153957%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151429+8=149343%6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151134+0=147746%6
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
151112+10=150954%0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 275:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1509+29+2=154051%6
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1513+11+12=153649%1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1510+4+0=151445%2
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1512+28+10=155055%3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1511+132=152250%2
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1510+5+8=152350%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151327+0=148646%2
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151513+10=151254%6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151533+0=148247%0
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
151321+10=150253%3
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
151311+0=150248%4
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151512+10=151352%2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1514+272=153952%4
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1514+3+10=152748%5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1513+7+0=152061%5
KCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
145221+10=144139%0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 195:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+6+4=152557%0
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1450+19+10=147943%4
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1458+4+0=146238%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1513+26+10=154962%8
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1456+2+5=146341%9
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1515+1+10=152659%6
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1450+18+0=146847%5
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151635+10=149153%4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
145011=144839%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+4+10=152961%6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1518+26+0=154448%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1517+31+10=155852%9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15164+0=151248%4
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1518+1+10=152952%1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1514+12=151349%8
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152110+9=152051%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1518+6+0=152449%0
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
152910+10=152951%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
1519332=148441%0
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1528+12+8=154859%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1527+17+0=154457%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
152034+10=149643%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1527233=150142%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1519+28+8=155558%3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15171+0=151659%4
DETDETTigers
Norris, Daniel
Norris
1438+8+10=145641%0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15172+2=151761%4
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14398+12=144339%3
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1520+12+0=153261%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1436+7+10=145339%7
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1528+23+0=155150%7
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1517+26+10=155350%12
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15265+0=152154%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151933+10=149646%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1525202=150350%8
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
152027+10=150350%7
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1437+3+0=144038%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15215+10=152662%2
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14354+0=143134%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1523+11+10=154466%4
7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+32=143733%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1522+25+10=155767%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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