Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds have a 52% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1516, down 1 point from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
CubsCubs10-390%56%
CardinalsCardinals2-34.057%17%
BrewersBrewers5-64.057%15%
RedsReds6-84.552%12%
PiratesPirates3-117.54%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15164+0=151248%
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1518+1+10=152952%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1516+27+0=154348%
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1518+30+10=155852%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
144611=144443%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151629+10=149757%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1446+17+0=146341%
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1516+5+10=153159%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
146092=144939%
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1516+4+10=153061%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1460+8+0=146842%
CINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15164+10=152258%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1460+0+0=146037%
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1516+27+10=155363%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146045%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151629+10=149755%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1516+51=152057%
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1446+17+8=147143%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151658%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145742%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+02=151449%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152051%
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+02=151448%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+8=152752%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151648%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151648%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151648%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152952%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152751%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+8=152449%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152650%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152650%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152750%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152650%
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+02=151048%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152652%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152652%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151248%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152652%
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+10=147043%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151647%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153753%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151647%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153753%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151647%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153753%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+02=151449%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151649%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152251%
9/14Monday, Sept. 146:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+03=145741%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+8=152459%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146041%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152659%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146041%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152659%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+02=149846%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+12=152854%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150046%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152654%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150046%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152654%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+12=151749%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152651%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151949%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152651%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151949%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+10=152651%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+01=151543%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+12=156457%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151643%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156257%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151643%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156257%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1514+12=151349%8
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152110+9=152051%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1518+6+0=152449%0
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
152910+10=152951%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Antone, Tejay
Antone
1519332=148441%0
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1528+12+8=154859%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1527+17+0=154457%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
152034+10=149643%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1527233=150142%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1519+28+8=155558%3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15171+0=151659%4
DETDETTigers
Norris, Daniel
Norris
1438+8+10=145641%0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15172+2=151761%4
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14398+12=144339%3
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1520+12+0=153261%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1436+7+10=145339%7
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1528+23+0=155150%7
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1517+26+10=155350%12
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15265+0=152154%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151933+10=149646%5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
1525202=150350%8
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
152027+10=150350%7
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1437+3+0=144038%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15215+10=152662%2
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14354+0=143134%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1523+11+10=154466%4
7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+32=143733%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1522+25+10=155767%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments