2020 MLB Predictions

The Reds are done for the season.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Cubs Cubs34-26	—	✓	✓
Reds Reds31-29	3.0	✓	—
Cardinals Cardinals30-28	3.0	✓	—
Brewers Brewers29-31	5.0	✓	—
Pirates Pirates19-41	15.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/1Thursday, Oct. 112 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1518	+9	+0	=1527	43%	0
10/1Thursday, Oct. 112 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1539	+16	+10	=1565	57%	5
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3012 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1519	+21	+2	=1542	44%	0
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3012 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1537	+21	+15	=1573	56%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1518	+13	+0	=1531	45%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1552	+1	+10	=1563	55%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1519	+13	+0	=1532	45%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1550	+6	+10	=1566	55%	7
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1517	–19	–1	=1497	40%	7
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1553	+2	+12	=1567	60%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1514	–12	+0	=1502	44%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1515	+17	+10	=1542	56%	6
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1513	–4	+0	=1509	46%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1516	+12	+10	=1538	54%	2
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1514	+26	–2	=1538	50%	3
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1514	+13	+10	=1537	50%	6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1524	–18	+0	=1506	51%	3
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lorenzen	1512	–23	+10	=1499	49%	7
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1522	+8	+0	=1530	48%	5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1515	+18	+10	=1543	52%	0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Stiever	1524	–19	–2	=1503	50%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1512	–20	+12	=1504	50%	7
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1445	+0	+0	=1445	38%	0
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1511	+10	+10	=1531	62%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1446	+20	+0	=1466	46%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lorenzen	1510	–27	+10	=1493	54%	4
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1448	–4	+0	=1444	42%	4
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1508	–19	+10	=1499	58%	9
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1449	+10	–3	=1456	39%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1507	+18	+8	=1533	61%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	–16	+0	=1489	46%	10
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1519	–9	+10	=1520	54%	5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1507	–23	+0	=1484	44%	1
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1517	–4	+10	=1523	56%	7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1505	+4	–2	=1507	46%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1519	+6	+10	=1535	54%	1
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1507	+20	+0	=1527	53%	5
9/10Thursday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1523	–23	+10	=1510	47%	8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1505	+11	+0	=1516	41%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1525	+45	+10	=1580	59%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1506	–19	+0	=1487	45%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1524	–14	+10	=1520	55%	3
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1508	–23	+0	=1485	52%	2
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1455	+5	+10	=1470	48%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1506	–15	–2	=1489	54%	6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1457	–6	+8	=1459	46%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:25 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1455	+7	–2	=1460	41%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:25 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1507	+12	+8	=1527	59%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1506	+4	+0	=1510	56%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1457	+4	+10	=1471	44%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1518	–18	+0	=1500	51%	3
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	–20	+10	=1495	49%	4
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1513	–9	+0	=1504	44%	16
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1510	+30	+10	=1550	56%	2
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1512	–9	–2	=1501	49%	7
8/31Monday, Aug. 316:30 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1511	–10	+10	=1511	51%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1522	–24	+0	=1498	46%	10
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1515	+3	+10	=1528	54%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1523	–4	+0	=1519	53%	5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1514	–28	+10	=1496	47%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1521	+37	+0	=1558	53%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1515	+9	+10	=1534	47%	0
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1522	+17	+0	=1539	57%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1514	–29	+8	=1493	43%	6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1511	–34	+0	=1477	46%	6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1511	–12	+10	=1509	54%	0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 275:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1509	+29	+2	=1540	51%	6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 275:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1513	+11	+12	=1536	49%	1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1510	+4	+0	=1514	45%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1512	+28	+10	=1550	55%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1511	+13	–2	=1522	50%	2
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1510	+5	+8	=1523	50%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1513	–27	+0	=1486	46%	2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1515	–13	+10	=1512	54%	6
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1515	–33	+0	=1482	47%	0
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1513	–21	+10	=1502	53%	3
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1513	–11	+0	=1502	48%	4
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1515	–12	+10	=1513	52%	2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1514	+27	–2	=1539	52%	4
8/20Thursday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1514	+3	+10	=1527	48%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1513	+7	+0	=1520	61%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1452	–21	+10	=1441	39%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 195:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1515	+6	+4	=1525	57%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 195:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+19	+10	=1479	43%	4
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1458	+4	+0	=1462	38%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1513	+26	+10	=1549	62%	8
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1456	+2	+5	=1463	41%	9
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1515	+1	+10	=1526	59%	6
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+18	+0	=1468	47%	5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1516	–35	+10	=1491	53%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1450	–1	–1	=1448	39%	5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1515	+4	+10	=1529	61%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1518	+26	+0	=1544	48%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1517	+31	+10	=1558	52%	9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1516	–4	+0	=1512	48%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1518	+1	+10	=1529	52%	1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1514	+1	–2	=1513	49%	8
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1521	–10	+9	=1520	51%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1518	+6	+0	=1524	49%	0
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1529	–10	+10	=1529	51%	13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1519	–33	–2	=1484	41%	0
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1528	+12	+8	=1548	59%	2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1527	+17	+0	=1544	57%	4
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1520	–34	+10	=1496	43%	2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1527	–23	–3	=1501	42%	2
8/3Monday, Aug. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1519	+28	+8	=1555	58%	3
8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1517	–1	+0	=1516	59%	4
8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Norris	1438	+8	+10	=1456	41%	0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1517	–2	+2	=1517	61%	4
8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Garcia	1439	–8	+12	=1443	39%	3
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1520	+12	+0	=1532	61%	2
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1436	+7	+10	=1453	39%	7
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1528	+23	+0	=1551	50%	7
7/29Wednesday, July 296:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1517	+26	+10	=1553	50%	12
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1526	–5	+0	=1521	54%	8
7/28Tuesday, July 286:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1519	–33	+10	=1496	46%	5
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–20	–2	=1503	50%	8
7/27Monday, July 276:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1520	–27	+10	=1503	50%	7
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1437	+3	+0	=1440	38%	3
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1521	–5	+10	=1526	62%	2
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Nova	1435	–4	+0	=1431	34%	6
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1523	+11	+10	=1544	66%	4
7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1436	+3	–2	=1437	33%	1
7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1522	+25	+10	=1557	67%	7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments