2020 MLB Predictions

The Royals are done for the season.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Twins Twins36-24	—	✓	✓
Indians Indians35-25	1.0	✓	—
White Sox White Sox35-25	1.0	✓	—
Royals Royals26-34	10.0	—	—
Tigers Tigers23-35	12.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 271:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Zimmermann	1435	–14	+0	=1421	42%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 271:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1454	+14	+10	=1478	58%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1434	–1	+0	=1433	47%	4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1455	–11	+10	=1454	53%	3
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1435	+19	+0	=1454	45%	2
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1454	+24	+10	=1488	55%	3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1436	–4	–2	=1430	45%	7
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1453	+4	+10	=1467	55%	8
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1513	–14	+0	=1499	55%	3
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1449	+8	+10	=1467	45%	12
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1511	–15	+0	=1496	52%	5
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1451	+18	+10	=1479	48%	0
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1513	+9	–3	=1519	60%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1449	–11	+8	=1446	40%	4
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+28	+0	=1479	45%	3
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1513	–9	+10	=1514	55%	5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1452	–2	+0	=1450	38%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1511	+14	+10	=1535	62%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1454	+13	+0	=1467	43%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1510	–7	+12	=1515	57%	9
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1452	+9	+0	=1461	52%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1441	–2	+10	=1449	48%	0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1454	–7	–1	=1446	50%	0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1438	–3	+10	=1445	50%	6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1452	+6	+0	=1458	46%	0
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+23	+10	=1484	54%	11
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1454	–6	+0	=1448	49%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1450	–7	+10	=1453	51%	7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1455	+4	–1	=1458	51%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1449	–5	+7	=1451	49%	4
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1444	–5	+0	=1439	36%	11
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1539	–13	+10	=1536	64%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1442	+14	+0	=1456	38%	3
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1541	–12	+10	=1539	62%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1440	+0	+0	=1440	39%	8
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1543	–31	+10	=1522	61%	6
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1441	+26	–3	=1464	40%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1542	–16	+10	=1536	60%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1514	+5	+0	=1519	63%	8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1443	–28	+10	=1425	37%	2
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1513	+37	+0	=1550	64%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1444	–5	+10	=1449	36%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Dunning	1511	–9	+0	=1502	57%	7
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1445	–3	+10	=1452	43%	4
9/3Thursday, Sept. 38:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1509	–18	–2	=1489	52%	11
9/3Thursday, Sept. 38:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1447	+17	+10	=1474	48%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1540	–40	+0	=1500	56%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1449	–1	+10	=1458	44%	0
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1538	–17	+0	=1521	62%	10
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1451	–24	+10	=1437	38%	1
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1540	+25	–2	=1563	62%	1
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+20	+8	=1478	38%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1451	–11	+0	=1440	41%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Dunning	1509	–19	+10	=1500	59%	5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1449	–4	+0	=1445	42%	9
8/29Saturday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1511	–18	+10	=1503	58%	6
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1450	+19	+0	=1469	45%	5
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1510	–17	+12	=1505	55%	6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1451	–3	+0	=1448	40%	5
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1517	–9	+10	=1518	60%	6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1449	–21	+0	=1428	36%	5
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1518	+1	+10	=1529	64%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+23	–2	=1472	36%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+44	+10	=1571	64%	9
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Wisler	1551	–22	+0	=1529	61%	5
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1452	–7	+10	=1455	39%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1550	+1	+0	=1551	63%	7
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1453	–3	+10	=1460	37%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1553	+3	–2	=1554	61%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1451	+14	+12	=1477	39%	7
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1513	+7	+0	=1520	61%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Harvey	1452	–21	+10	=1441	39%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 195:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1515	+6	+4	=1525	57%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 195:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+19	+10	=1479	43%	4
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1451	–7	+0	=1444	37%	1
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Wisler	1551	–24	+10	=1537	63%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1452	–2	+0	=1450	34%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1550	+2	+10	=1562	66%	4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1450	+12	+0	=1462	37%	4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1552	–5	+10	=1557	63%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Kennedy	1451	–3	+2	=1450	34%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1551	+4	+13	=1568	66%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1450	+18	+0	=1468	47%	5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1516	–35	+10	=1491	53%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1450	–1	–1	=1448	39%	5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1515	+4	+10	=1529	61%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1550	–2	+0	=1548	63%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1449	–4	+10	=1455	37%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1552	+7	+0	=1559	62%	6
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1446	+16	+10	=1472	38%	9
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1554	–20	–3	=1531	61%	2
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1445	–2	+10	=1453	39%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1531	–17	+0	=1514	57%	2
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1441	+14	+10	=1465	43%	13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1530	+24	–2	=1552	65%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1442	–6	+8	=1444	35%	1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1443	–2	+0	=1441	34%	4
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1530	+14	+10	=1554	66%	5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1444	+15	–2	=1457	39%	0
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1529	–4	+10	=1535	61%	2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1496	–19	+0	=1477	53%	9
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1446	+1	+10	=1457	47%	2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Gonzalez	1494	+3	+0	=1497	57%	11
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bolanos	1448	–12	+10	=1446	43%	5
7/31Friday, July 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1493	+0	–1	=1492	56%	3
7/31Friday, July 318:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1449	–6	+7	=1450	44%	2
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1448	–1	+0	=1447	51%	5
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Nova	1437	–4	+10	=1443	49%	3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1449	+13	+0	=1462	52%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1436	+2	+10	=1448	48%	5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Zimmer	1450	–7	+0	=1443	51%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Garcia	1435	–6	+10	=1439	49%	4
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Montgomery	1447	–5	–1	=1441	49%	14
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1438	+4	+8	=1450	51%	6
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bolanos	1449	–13	+0	=1436	37%	2
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1528	–8	+10	=1530	63%	9
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1447	–7	+0	=1440	33%	3
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1530	+21	+10	=1561	67%	2
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1448	+11	–3	=1456	37%	0
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1529	+7	+10	=1546	63%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments