Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Royals have a 9% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1446, down 2 points from last week.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins10-498%68%
IndiansIndians8-72.588%20%
White SoxWhite Sox8-62.077%11%
TigersTigers6-52.519%1%
RoyalsRoyals5-105.59%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1552+7+0=155962%
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1446+16+10=147238%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15522+0=155064%
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14465+10=145136%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
144611=144443%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151629+10=149757%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1446+17+0=146341%
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1516+5+10=153159%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
144621=144333%
MINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1552+7+10=156967%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1446+16+0=146236%
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15522+10=156064%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14465+0=144134%
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
15522+10=156066%
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14461+0=144533%
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+3+10=156567%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1516+51=152057%
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1446+17+8=147143%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151658%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145742%
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+02=155063%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+12=145937%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155263%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145737%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155263%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145737%
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+12=144539%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152261%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144740%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152260%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144740%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152260%
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144741%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+12=151259%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144741%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151059%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144741%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151059%
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
153112=152860%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+8=145540%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153060%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145740%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153060%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145740%
9/3Thursday, Sept. 38:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+02=149856%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145744%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150056%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145744%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150056%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145744%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150056%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145744%
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+13=144437%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144737%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144737%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144737%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154063%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+01=145951%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+7=145449%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146050%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145750%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
1460+0+0=146050%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145750%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+11=144650%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145050%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144750%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145050%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144738%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+12=153162%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144739%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152961%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144739%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152961%
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+01=151158%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+8=145542%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151258%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145742%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151258%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145742%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143847%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144047%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144047%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144047%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Smeltzer, Devin
Smeltzer
1554203=153161%2
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14452+10=145339%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
153117+0=151457%2
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1441+14+10=146543%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1530+242=155265%6
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14426+8=144435%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14432+0=144134%4
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+14+10=155466%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1444+152=145739%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15294+10=153561%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149619+0=147753%9
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1446+1+10=145747%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1494+3+0=149757%11
KCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144812+10=144643%5
7/31Friday, July 318:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1493+01=149256%3
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14496+7=145044%2
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14481+0=144751%5
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14374+10=144349%3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1449+13+0=146252%4
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+2+10=144848%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Zimmer, Kyle
Zimmer
14507+0=144351%3
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14356+10=143949%4
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Montgomery, Mike
Montgomery
144751=144149%14
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1438+4+8=145051%6
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144913+0=143637%2
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15288+10=153063%9
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14477+0=144033%3
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1530+21+10=156167%2
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1448+113=145637%0
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1529+7+10=154663%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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