Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Royals are done for the season.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins36-24
IndiansIndians35-251.0
White SoxWhite Sox35-251.0
RoyalsRoyals26-3410.0
TigersTigers23-3512.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 271:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
143514+0=142142%1
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1454+14+10=147858%3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14341+0=143347%4
KCKCRoyals
Hernandez, Carlos
Hernandez
145511+10=145453%3
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1435+19+0=145445%2
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1454+24+10=148855%3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
143642=143045%7
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
1453+4+10=146755%8
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 238 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
151314+0=149955%3
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1449+8+10=146745%12
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 228:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
151115+0=149652%5
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1451+18+10=147948%0
9/21Monday, Sept. 218:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1513+93=151960%1
KCKCRoyals
Hernandez, Carlos
Hernandez
144911+8=144640%4
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1451+28+0=147945%3
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15139+10=151455%5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14522+0=145038%0
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1511+14+10=153562%5
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1454+13+0=146743%5
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
15107+12=151557%9
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1452+9+0=146152%4
DETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
14412+10=144948%0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
145471=144650%0
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14383+10=144550%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1452+6+0=145846%0
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1451+23+10=148454%11
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14546+0=144849%4
KCKCRoyals
Hernandez, Carlos
Hernandez
14507+10=145351%7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1455+41=145851%3
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14495+7=145149%4
9/10Thursday, Sept. 106:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14445+0=143936%11
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153913+10=153664%1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1442+14+0=145638%3
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154112+10=153962%0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1440+0+0=144039%8
CLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
154331+10=152261%6
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1441+263=146440%2
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
154216+10=153660%5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1514+5+0=151963%8
KCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
144328+10=142537%2
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1513+37+0=155064%5
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14445+10=144936%3
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15119+0=150257%7
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14453+10=145243%4
9/3Thursday, Sept. 38:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
1509182=148952%11
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1447+17+10=147448%6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
154040+0=150056%5
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14491+10=145844%0
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153817+0=152162%10
KCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
145124+10=143738%1
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1540+252=156362%1
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1450+20+8=147838%2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
145111+0=144041%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
150919+10=150059%5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14494+0=144542%9
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
151118+10=150358%6
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1450+19+0=146945%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151017+12=150555%6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14513+0=144840%5
STLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15179+10=151860%6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
144921+0=142836%5
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1518+1+10=152964%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1451+232=147236%3
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1517+44+10=157164%9
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
155122+0=152961%5
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14527+10=145539%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
1550+1+0=155163%7
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14533+10=146037%2
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1553+32=155461%2
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1451+14+12=147739%7
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1513+7+0=152061%5
KCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
145221+10=144139%0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 195:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+6+4=152557%0
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1450+19+10=147943%4
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14517+0=144437%1
MINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
155124+10=153763%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14522+0=145034%2
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
1550+2+10=156266%4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1450+12+0=146237%4
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15525+10=155763%2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Kennedy, Ian
Kennedy
14513+2=145034%2
MINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1551+4+13=156866%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1450+18+0=146847%5
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151635+10=149153%4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 116:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
145011=144839%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+4+10=152961%6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15502+0=154863%2
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14494+10=145537%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1552+7+0=155962%6
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1446+16+10=147238%9
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Smeltzer, Devin
Smeltzer
1554203=153161%2
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14452+10=145339%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
153117+0=151457%2
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1441+14+10=146543%13
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1530+242=155265%6
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14426+8=144435%1
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14432+0=144134%4
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1530+14+10=155466%5
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:15 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1444+152=145739%0
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15294+10=153561%2
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149619+0=147753%9
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1446+1+10=145747%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1494+3+0=149757%11
KCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144812+10=144643%5
7/31Friday, July 318:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1493+01=149256%3
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14496+7=145044%2
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14481+0=144751%5
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14374+10=144349%3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1449+13+0=146252%4
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+2+10=144848%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Zimmer, Kyle
Zimmer
14507+0=144351%3
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14356+10=143949%4
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Montgomery, Mike
Montgomery
144751=144149%14
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1438+4+8=145051%6
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144913+0=143637%2
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15288+10=153063%9
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14477+0=144033%3
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1530+21+10=156167%2
7/24Friday, July 247:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1448+113=145637%0
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1529+7+10=154663%2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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