Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
The Tigers are done for the season.
AL Central standings
| Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | TwinsTwins36-24 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
 | IndiansIndians35-25 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | ||
 | White SoxWhite Sox35-25 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | ||
 | RoyalsRoyals26-34 | 10.0 | — | — | ||
 | TigersTigers23-35 | 12.0 | — | — |
Pitcher ratings
Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.
Team rating
Completed games
| Date | Team | Starting pitcher | Team rating | Starting pitcher adj. | Travel, rest & home field adj. | Pregame team rating | Win prob.Chance of winning | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/27Sunday, Sept. 271:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers |  | 1435 | –14 | +0 | =1421 | 42% | 1 |
| KCRoyals |  | 1454 | +14 | +10 | =1478 | 58% | 3 | |
| 9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers |  | 1434 | –1 | +0 | =1433 | 47% | 4 |
| KCRoyals |  | 1455 | –11 | +10 | =1454 | 53% | 3 | |
| 9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers |  | 1435 | +19 | +0 | =1454 | 45% | 2 |
| KCRoyals |  | 1454 | +24 | +10 | =1488 | 55% | 3 | |
| 9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers |  | 1436 | –4 | –2 | =1430 | 45% | 7 |
| KCRoyals |  | 1453 | +4 | +10 | =1467 | 55% | 8 | |
| 9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers |  | 1437 | –4 | +0 | =1433 | 30% | 6 |
| MINTwins |  | 1552 | +16 | +10 | =1578 | 70% | 7 | |
| 9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers |  | 1437 | +2 | –1 | =1438 | 35% | 4 |
| MINTwins |  | 1552 | –12 | +10 | =1550 | 65% | 5 | |
| 9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians |  | 1529 | –10 | +0 | =1519 | 60% | 7 |
| DETTigers | | 1438 | –1 | +10 | =1447 | 40% | 4 | |
| 9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians |  | 1531 | –33 | +0 | =1498 | 55% | 2 |
| DETTigers | | 1437 | +14 | +10 | =1461 | 45% | 5 | |
| 9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians |  | 1531 | –15 | +0 | =1516 | 61% | 1 |
| DETTigers | | 1437 | –7 | +10 | =1440 | 39% | 0 | |
| 9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians |  | 1529 | +27 | –2 | =1554 | 64% | 10 |
| DETTigers | | 1439 | +4 | +10 | =1453 | 36% | 3 | |
| 9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals | | 1452 | +9 | +0 | =1461 | 52% | 4 |
| DETTigers | | 1441 | –2 | +10 | =1449 | 48% | 0 | |
| 9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals |  | 1454 | –7 | –1 | =1446 | 50% | 0 |
| DETTigers | | 1438 | –3 | +10 | =1445 | 50% | 6 | |
| 9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1440 | +18 | +0 | =1458 | 43% | 2 |
| CHWWhite Sox |  | 1520 | –21 | +10 | =1509 | 57% | 5 | |
| 9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1443 | –3 | +0 | =1440 | 41% | 0 |
| CHWWhite Sox |  | 1517 | –23 | +10 | =1504 | 59% | 14 | |
| 9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1444 | –2 | –2 | =1440 | 33% | 3 |
| CHWWhite Sox |  | 1516 | +36 | +10 | =1562 | 67% | 4 | |
| 9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:40 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1441 | –16 | +0 | =1425 | 38% | 6 |
 STLCardinals |  | 1521 | –18 | +10 | =1513 | 62% | 3 | |
| 9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1443 | +7 | –2 | =1448 | 33% | 2 |
| STLCardinals |  | 1519 | +41 | +12 | =1572 | 67% | 12 | |
| 9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. Eastern |  MILBrewers |  | 1504 | +3 | +0 | =1507 | 57% | 19 |
| DETTigers | | 1447 | +2 | +10 | =1459 | 43% | 0 | |
| 9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers |  | 1506 | +3 | +1 | =1510 | 57% | 3 |
| DETTigers | | 1445 | +12 | +7 | =1464 | 43% | 8 | |
| 9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1446 | –2 | +0 | =1444 | 34% | 2 |
| MINTwins |  | 1545 | +4 | +10 | =1559 | 66% | 6 | |
| 9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1444 | –6 | +0 | =1438 | 34% | 10 |
| MINTwins |  | 1547 | –1 | +10 | =1556 | 66% | 8 | |
| 9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1445 | –4 | –3 | =1438 | 32% | 3 |
| MINTwins | | 1546 | +14 | +7 | =1567 | 68% | 4 | |
| 9/4Friday, Sept. 44:40 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins |  | 1546 | –20 | –3 | =1523 | 61% | 3 |
| DETTigers |  | 1445 | –10 | +7 | =1442 | 39% | 2 | |
| 9/4Friday, Sept. 42:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1446 | +1 | +0 | =1447 | 37% | 0 |
| MINTwins |  | 1545 | –14 | +12 | =1543 | 63% | 2 | |
| 9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1448 | +17 | +0 | =1465 | 42% | 5 |
| MILBrewers | | 1505 | +7 | +10 | =1522 | 58% | 8 | |
| 9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1443 | –1 | +0 | =1442 | 40% | 12 |
| MILBrewers |  | 1509 | –9 | +10 | =1510 | 60% | 1 | |
| 8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins | | 1545 | +16 | +0 | =1561 | 66% | 2 |
| DETTigers | | 1442 | –5 | +10 | =1447 | 34% | 3 | |
| 8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins | | 1547 | –19 | +0 | =1528 | 62% | 2 |
| DETTigers | | 1440 | –7 | +10 | =1443 | 38% | 4 | |
| 8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins | | 1550 | –3 | +4 | =1551 | 64% | 2 |
| DETTigers | | 1437 | –2 | +15 | =1450 | 36% | 8 | |
| 8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern |  CHCCubs |  | 1524 | –21 | +0 | =1503 | 58% | 6 |
| DETTigers | | 1435 | +0 | +10 | =1445 | 42% | 7 | |
| 8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs |  | 1527 | –23 | +0 | =1504 | 56% | 1 |
| DETTigers | | 1433 | +16 | +10 | =1459 | 44% | 7 | |
| 8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs |  | 1525 | –6 | –2 | =1517 | 60% | 9 |
| DETTigers | | 1434 | +1 | +9 | =1444 | 40% | 3 | |
| 8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1432 | –7 | +0 | =1425 | 35% | 7 |
| CLEIndians | | 1537 | –11 | +10 | =1536 | 65% | 4 | |
| 8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1434 | –4 | +0 | =1430 | 40% | 1 |
| CLEIndians | | 1536 | –47 | +10 | =1499 | 60% | 6 | |
| 8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1431 | +4 | –2 | =1433 | 40% | 10 |
| CLEIndians |  | 1538 | –45 | +8 | =1501 | 60% | 5 | |
| 8/20Thursday, Aug. 202 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1433 | +19 | +0 | =1452 | 38% | 0 |
| CHWWhite Sox | | 1500 | +28 | +10 | =1538 | 62% | 9 | |
| 8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1434 | +1 | +0 | =1435 | 42% | 3 |
| CHWWhite Sox |  | 1499 | –14 | +10 | =1495 | 58% | 5 | |
| 8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1436 | +0 | +0 | =1436 | 42% | 4 |
| CHWWhite Sox |  | 1497 | –16 | +10 | =1491 | 58% | 10 | |
| 8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1438 | –6 | –2 | =1430 | 40% | 2 |
| CHWWhite Sox |  | 1495 | –6 | +10 | =1499 | 60% | 7 | |
| 8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians | | 1533 | –42 | +0 | =1491 | 55% | 8 |
| DETTigers | | 1439 | +5 | +10 | =1454 | 45% | 5 | |
| 8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians | | 1532 | +15 | +0 | =1547 | 61% | 3 |
| DETTigers | | 1440 | +19 | +10 | =1469 | 39% | 1 | |
| 8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEIndians |  | 1530 | –11 | +1 | =1520 | 60% | 10 |
| DETTigers |  | 1442 | –2 | +12 | =1452 | 40% | 5 | |
| 8/12Wednesday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | | 1496 | –15 | +0 | =1481 | 55% | 7 |
| DETTigers | | 1443 | –3 | +10 | =1450 | 45% | 5 | |
| 8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | | 1494 | –5 | +0 | =1489 | 56% | 8 |
| DETTigers | | 1445 | –6 | +10 | =1449 | 44% | 4 | |
| 8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox |  | 1496 | +2 | –2 | =1496 | 57% | 1 |
| DETTigers | | 1442 | +0 | +8 | =1450 | 43% | 5 | |
| 8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1441 | +13 | +0 | =1454 | 48% | 2 |
 PITPirates |  | 1457 | +1 | +10 | =1468 | 52% | 1 | |
| 8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1439 | –1 | +0 | =1438 | 47% | 11 |
| PITPirates |  | 1460 | –9 | +10 | =1461 | 53% | 5 | |
| 8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1436 | +1 | +5 | =1442 | 46% | 17 |
| PITPirates |  | 1462 | +0 | +10 | =1472 | 54% | 13 | |
| 8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. Eastern |  CINReds |  | 1517 | –1 | +0 | =1516 | 59% | 4 |
| DETTigers |  | 1438 | +8 | +10 | =1456 | 41% | 0 | |
| 8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. Eastern | CINReds |  | 1517 | –2 | +2 | =1517 | 61% | 4 |
| DETTigers |  | 1439 | –8 | +12 | =1443 | 39% | 3 | |
| 7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern | CINReds |  | 1520 | +12 | +0 | =1532 | 61% | 2 |
| DETTigers | | 1436 | +7 | +10 | =1453 | 39% | 7 | |
| 7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals | | 1448 | –1 | +0 | =1447 | 51% | 5 |
| DETTigers | | 1437 | –4 | +10 | =1443 | 49% | 3 | |
| 7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals |  | 1449 | +13 | +0 | =1462 | 52% | 4 |
| DETTigers | | 1436 | +2 | +10 | =1448 | 48% | 5 | |
| 7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals |  | 1450 | –7 | +0 | =1443 | 51% | 3 |
| DETTigers | | 1435 | –6 | +10 | =1439 | 49% | 4 | |
| 7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals |  | 1447 | –5 | –1 | =1441 | 49% | 14 |
| DETTigers | | 1438 | +4 | +8 | =1450 | 51% | 6 | |
| 7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1437 | +3 | +0 | =1440 | 38% | 3 |
| CINReds | | 1521 | –5 | +10 | =1526 | 62% | 2 | |
| 7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1435 | –4 | +0 | =1431 | 34% | 6 |
| CINReds | | 1523 | +11 | +10 | =1544 | 66% | 4 | |
| 7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | | 1436 | +3 | –2 | =1437 | 33% | 1 |
| CINReds |  | 1522 | +25 | +10 | =1557 | 67% | 7 |
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
Comments