Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Tigers are done for the season.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins36-24
IndiansIndians35-251.0
White SoxWhite Sox35-251.0
RoyalsRoyals26-3410.0
TigersTigers23-3512.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/27Sunday, Sept. 271:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
143514+0=142142%1
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1454+14+10=147858%3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14341+0=143347%4
KCKCRoyals
Hernandez, Carlos
Hernandez
145511+10=145453%3
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1435+19+0=145445%2
KCKCRoyals
Keller, Brad
Keller
1454+24+10=148855%3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
143642=143045%7
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
1453+4+10=146755%8
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
14374+0=143330%6
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+16+10=157870%7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1437+21=143835%4
MINMINTwins
Bailey, Homer
Bailey
155212+10=155065%5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
152910+0=151960%7
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14381+10=144740%4
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153133+0=149855%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1437+14+10=146145%5
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153115+0=151661%1
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14377+10=144039%0
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1529+272=155464%10
DETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1439+4+10=145336%3
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1452+9+0=146152%4
DETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
14412+10=144948%0
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
145471=144650%0
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14383+10=144550%6
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1440+18+0=145843%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Stiever, Jonathan
Stiever
152021+10=150957%5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14433+0=144041%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151723+10=150459%14
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
144422=144033%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1516+36+10=156267%4
9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Zimmermann, Jordan
Zimmermann
144116+0=142538%6
STLSTLCardinals
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
152118+10=151362%3
9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1443+72=144833%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1519+41+12=157267%12
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1504+3+0=150757%19
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1447+2+10=145943%0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1506+3+1=151057%3
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1445+12+7=146443%8
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14462+0=144434%2
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1545+4+10=155966%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
14446+0=143834%10
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
15471+10=155666%8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
144543=143832%3
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1546+14+7=156768%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:40 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
1546203=152361%3
DETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
144510+7=144239%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 42:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1446+1+0=144737%0
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154514+12=154363%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1448+17+0=146542%5
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1505+7+10=152258%8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14431+0=144240%12
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15099+10=151060%1
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1545+16+0=156166%2
DETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
14425+10=144734%3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
154719+0=152862%2
DETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
14407+10=144338%4
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
15503+4=155164%2
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14372+15=145036%8
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152421+0=150358%6
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1435+0+10=144542%7
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Chatwood, Tyler
Chatwood
152723+0=150456%1
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1433+16+10=145944%7
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
152562=151760%9
DETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1434+1+9=144440%3
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
14327+0=142535%7
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
153711+10=153665%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14344+0=143040%1
CLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153647+10=149960%6
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1431+42=143340%10
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153845+8=150160%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 202 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1433+19+0=145238%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+28+10=153862%9
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1434+1+0=143542%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
149914+10=149558%5
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1436+0+0=143642%4
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149716+10=149158%10
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
143862=143040%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
14956+10=149960%7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153342+0=149155%8
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1439+5+10=145445%5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1532+15+0=154761%3
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1440+19+10=146939%1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153011+1=152060%10
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14422+12=145240%5
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149615+0=148155%7
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14433+10=145045%5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
14945+0=148956%8
DETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
14456+10=144944%4
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1496+22=149657%1
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1442+0+8=145043%5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1441+13+0=145448%2
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1457+1+10=146852%1
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+0=143847%11
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
14609+10=146153%5
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+1+5=144246%17
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1462+0+10=147254%13
8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15171+0=151659%4
DETDETTigers
Norris, Daniel
Norris
1438+8+10=145641%0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15172+2=151761%4
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14398+12=144339%3
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1520+12+0=153261%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1436+7+10=145339%7
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14481+0=144751%5
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14374+10=144349%3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1449+13+0=146252%4
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+2+10=144848%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Zimmer, Kyle
Zimmer
14507+0=144351%3
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14356+10=143949%4
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Montgomery, Mike
Montgomery
144751=144149%14
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1438+4+8=145051%6
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1437+3+0=144038%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15215+10=152662%2
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14354+0=143134%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1523+11+10=154466%4
7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+32=143733%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1522+25+10=155767%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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