Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Tigers have a 19% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1439, the same as last week.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins10-498%68%
IndiansIndians8-72.588%20%
White SoxWhite Sox8-62.077%11%
TigersTigers6-52.519%1%
RoyalsRoyals5-105.59%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+0=143847%
PITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
14609+10=146153%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1439+12+0=145146%
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1460+8+10=147854%
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1500+32=150158%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+8=144842%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
15004+0=149657%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145043%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
150014+0=148656%
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14394+10=144544%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang-Hyun
Kim
1512202=149056%
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+10=144844%
8/13Thursday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+0=151257%
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1439+12+10=146143%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153111+1=152160%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145040%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 156:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153123+0=150858%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145042%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 161 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1531+15+0=154664%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145036%
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
143942=143340%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
15004+10=150660%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14391+0=143842%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
150014+10=149658%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144040%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151060%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 202 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144040%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151060%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143836%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+8=153864%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144036%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154064%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144036%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154064%
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+02=152561%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+9=144939%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152761%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145039%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+0=152761%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145039%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+01=155164%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145036%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155265%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145035%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155265%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145035%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155265%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145035%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144037%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152963%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144037%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+10=152963%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+12=156467%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+1=152060%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+7=144740%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151960%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145040%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 102:15 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143838%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152262%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 105:15 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144038%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152262%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143840%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151060%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144040%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151060%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144040%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151060%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+11=144650%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145050%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+0=144750%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145050%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
153112=152861%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145039%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153062%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145038%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 196:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153062%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145038%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153062%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145038%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+11=143933%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+12=143847%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144047%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144047%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144047%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145753%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+1+5=144246%17
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1462+0+10=147254%13
8/2Sunday, Aug. 25:25 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15171+0=151659%4
DETDETTigers
Norris, Daniel
Norris
1438+8+10=145641%0
8/2Sunday, Aug. 212:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
15172+2=151761%4
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14398+12=144339%3
7/31Friday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1520+12+0=153261%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1436+7+10=145339%7
7/30Thursday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14481+0=144751%5
DETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14374+10=144349%3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1449+13+0=146252%4
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+2+10=144848%5
7/28Tuesday, July 287:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Zimmer, Kyle
Zimmer
14507+0=144351%3
DETDETTigers
Garcia, Rony
Garcia
14356+10=143949%4
7/27Monday, July 277:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Montgomery, Mike
Montgomery
144751=144149%14
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1438+4+8=145051%6
7/26Sunday, July 261:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1437+3+0=144038%3
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
15215+10=152662%2
7/25Saturday, July 255:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Nova, Ivan
Nova
14354+0=143134%6
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1523+11+10=154466%4
7/24Friday, July 246:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1436+32=143733%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1522+25+10=155767%7

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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