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The Twins are done for the season.
Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
![]() | TwinsTwins36-24 | — | ✓ | ✓ | ||
![]() | IndiansIndians35-25 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | ||
![]() | White SoxWhite Sox35-25 | 1.0 | ✓ | — | ||
![]() | RoyalsRoyals26-34 | 10.0 | — | — | ||
![]() | TigersTigers23-35 | 12.0 | — | — |
Date | Team | Starting pitcher | Team rating | Starting pitcher adj. | Travel, rest & home field adj. | Pregame team rating | Win prob.Chance of winning | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1551 | +3 | +0 | =1554 | 50% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –1 | +10 | =1557 | 50% | 1 | |
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1548 | +10 | –1 | =1557 | 46% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1550 | +17 | +12 | =1579 | 54% | 1 | |
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1518 | +13 | +0 | =1531 | 45% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | +1 | +10 | =1563 | 55% | 3 | |
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1519 | +13 | +0 | =1532 | 45% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1550 | +6 | +10 | =1566 | 55% | 7 | |
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1517 | –19 | –1 | =1497 | 40% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1553 | +2 | +12 | =1567 | 60% | 2 | |
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –4 | +0 | =1433 | 30% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | +16 | +10 | =1578 | 70% | 7 | |
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1437 | +2 | –1 | =1438 | 35% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | –12 | +10 | =1550 | 65% | 5 | |
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –1 | +0 | =1548 | 46% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1529 | +38 | +10 | =1577 | 54% | 0 | |
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1547 | +5 | +0 | =1552 | 52% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1532 | –3 | +10 | =1539 | 48% | 1 | |
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –1 | –1 | =1546 | 48% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1531 | +18 | +12 | =1561 | 52% | 1 | |
9/17Thursday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1549 | +19 | +0 | =1568 | 58% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1523 | –21 | +10 | =1512 | 42% | 4 | |
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1547 | –2 | +0 | =1545 | 47% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1525 | +33 | +10 | =1568 | 53% | 1 | |
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –15 | +0 | =1534 | 51% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1523 | –6 | +10 | =1527 | 49% | 6 | |
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1550 | –1 | –2 | =1547 | 55% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1522 | –20 | +10 | =1512 | 45% | 3 | |
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1532 | –29 | +0 | =1503 | 41% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1549 | +7 | +10 | =1566 | 59% | 7 | |
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1533 | –14 | +0 | =1519 | 45% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –2 | +10 | =1556 | 55% | 8 | |
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1535 | +26 | –3 | =1558 | 48% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1547 | +15 | +13 | =1575 | 52% | 3 | |
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –11 | +0 | =1537 | 55% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1517 | –23 | +10 | =1504 | 45% | 6 | |
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1546 | +0 | –2 | =1544 | 53% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1519 | –7 | +8 | =1520 | 47% | 3 | |
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1446 | –2 | +0 | =1444 | 34% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1545 | +4 | +10 | =1559 | 66% | 6 | |
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1444 | –6 | +0 | =1438 | 34% | 10 |
![]() | ![]() | 1547 | –1 | +10 | =1556 | 66% | 8 | |
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1445 | –4 | –3 | =1438 | 32% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1546 | +14 | +7 | =1567 | 68% | 4 | |
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:40 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1546 | –20 | –3 | =1523 | 61% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1445 | –10 | +7 | =1442 | 39% | 2 | |
9/4Friday, Sept. 42:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1446 | +1 | +0 | =1447 | 37% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1545 | –14 | +12 | =1543 | 63% | 2 | |
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1511 | –20 | +0 | =1491 | 42% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1543 | –2 | +10 | =1551 | 58% | 8 | |
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1512 | +3 | +0 | =1515 | 44% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1542 | +5 | +10 | =1557 | 56% | 3 | |
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1511 | +37 | –2 | =1546 | 49% | 8 |
![]() | ![]() | 1544 | +3 | +7 | =1554 | 51% | 5 | |
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1545 | +16 | +0 | =1561 | 66% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1442 | –5 | +10 | =1447 | 34% | 3 | |
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1547 | –19 | +0 | =1528 | 62% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1440 | –7 | +10 | =1443 | 38% | 4 | |
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1550 | –3 | +4 | =1551 | 64% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1437 | –2 | +15 | =1450 | 36% | 8 | |
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1552 | –2 | +0 | =1550 | 49% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1535 | +14 | +10 | =1559 | 51% | 6 | |
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1553 | –1 | +0 | =1552 | 48% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1534 | +23 | +10 | =1567 | 52% | 4 | |
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1552 | +14 | –3 | =1563 | 54% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1535 | –6 | +10 | =1539 | 46% | 2 | |
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1551 | –22 | +0 | =1529 | 61% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1452 | –7 | +10 | =1455 | 39% | 4 | |
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1550 | +1 | +0 | =1551 | 63% | 7 |
![]() | ![]() | 1453 | –3 | +10 | =1460 | 37% | 2 | |
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1553 | +3 | –2 | =1554 | 61% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1451 | +14 | +12 | =1477 | 39% | 7 | |
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1520 | +28 | +0 | =1548 | 50% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1550 | –8 | +10 | =1552 | 50% | 7 | |
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1517 | +0 | +0 | =1517 | 43% | 9 |
![]() | ![]() | 1553 | +3 | +10 | =1566 | 57% | 3 | |
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1518 | –29 | +0 | =1489 | 39% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | +7 | +10 | =1569 | 61% | 4 | |
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1451 | –7 | +0 | =1444 | 37% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1551 | –24 | +10 | =1537 | 63% | 4 | |
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1452 | –2 | +0 | =1450 | 34% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1550 | +2 | +10 | =1562 | 66% | 4 | |
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1450 | +12 | +0 | =1462 | 37% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | –5 | +10 | =1557 | 63% | 2 | |
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1451 | –3 | +2 | =1450 | 34% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1551 | +4 | +13 | =1568 | 66% | 4 | |
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1548 | +5 | +0 | =1553 | 55% | 12 |
![]() | ![]() | 1519 | –13 | +10 | =1516 | 45% | 2 | |
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1550 | –23 | +0 | =1527 | 51% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1518 | –5 | +10 | =1523 | 49% | 6 | |
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –1 | –2 | =1545 | 50% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1519 | +16 | +10 | =1545 | 50% | 2 | |
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1550 | –2 | +0 | =1548 | 63% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1449 | –4 | +10 | =1455 | 37% | 4 | |
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1552 | +7 | +0 | =1559 | 62% | 6 |
![]() | ![]() | 1446 | +16 | +10 | =1472 | 38% | 9 | |
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1554 | –20 | –3 | =1531 | 61% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1445 | –2 | +10 | =1453 | 39% | 3 | |
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1555 | +3 | +0 | =1558 | 63% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1460 | –2 | +10 | =1468 | 37% | 6 | |
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1554 | –8 | –3 | =1543 | 61% | 5 |
![]() | ![]() | 1462 | –5 | +7 | =1464 | 39% | 2 | |
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1463 | +13 | +0 | =1476 | 38% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1553 | –4 | +10 | =1559 | 62% | 7 | |
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1464 | –10 | –2 | =1452 | 39% | 4 |
![]() | ![]() | 1552 | –35 | +10 | =1527 | 61% | 5 | |
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1529 | –19 | +0 | =1510 | 47% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1551 | –28 | +10 | =1533 | 53% | 3 | |
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1530 | –8 | +0 | =1522 | 45% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –1 | +10 | =1558 | 55% | 3 | |
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1532 | +18 | +0 | =1550 | 51% | 1 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | –12 | +10 | =1546 | 49% | 4 | |
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1530 | +9 | –3 | =1536 | 47% | 2 |
![]() | ![]() | 1549 | –4 | +10 | =1555 | 53% | 0 | |
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1513 | –13 | +0 | =1500 | 41% | 0 |
![]() | ![]() | 1548 | +4 | +10 | =1562 | 59% | 3 | |
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1515 | +0 | +0 | =1515 | 45% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1546 | –8 | +10 | =1548 | 55% | 6 | |
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1543 | +0 | +0 | =1543 | 57% | 14 |
![]() | ![]() | 1497 | –9 | +10 | =1498 | 43% | 2 | |
7/25Saturday, July 252:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1546 | –13 | +0 | =1533 | 55% | 3 |
![]() | ![]() | 1494 | –5 | +10 | =1499 | 45% | 10 | |
7/24Friday, July 248:10 p.m. Eastern | ![]() | ![]() | 1544 | +1 | –2 | =1543 | 51% | 10 |
![]() | ![]() | 1496 | +32 | +10 | =1538 | 49% | 5 |
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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