Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Twins have a 98% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1552, up 3 points from last week.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins10-498%68%
IndiansIndians8-72.588%20%
White SoxWhite Sox8-62.077%11%
TigersTigers6-52.519%1%
RoyalsRoyals5-105.59%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1552+7+0=155962%
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1446+16+10=147238%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15522+0=155064%
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14465+10=145136%
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
155222=154851%
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1518+16+10=154449%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+3+0=155555%
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15186+10=152245%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155256%
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
151814+10=151444%
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
144621=144333%
MINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1552+7+10=156967%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1446+16+0=146236%
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15522+10=156064%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14465+0=144134%
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
15522+10=156066%
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14461+0=144533%
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+3+10=156567%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
151814+0=150442%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156258%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151944%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156256%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1518+1+0=151944%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156256%
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+02=155063%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+12=145937%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155263%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145737%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155263%
KCKCRoyals
Pitcher TBD
1446+1+10=145737%
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+03=154951%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154049%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154048%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+10=154048%
8/27Thursday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+01=155164%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145036%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155265%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145035%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 296:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155265%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145035%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155265%
DETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+10=145035%
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+02=149841%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+7=155959%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150041%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156259%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+0=150041%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156259%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+12=156467%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 88:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+02=155054%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+8=152046%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 98:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155254%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
1512+0+10=152246%
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
153113=152745%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156255%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:15 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153045%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156255%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 134:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Pitcher TBD
15311+0=153045%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156255%
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+02=155056%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151044%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155256%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151044%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155256%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151044%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155256%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1500+0+10=151044%
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+01=155152%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+12=153948%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153748%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:20 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+0=155252%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1527+0+10=153748%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+11=143933%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
1439+1+0=144033%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156267%
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+01=151543%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+12=156457%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151643%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156257%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1516+0+0=151643%
MINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
1552+0+10=156257%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Smeltzer, Devin
Smeltzer
1554203=153161%2
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14452+10=145339%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1555+3+0=155863%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14602+10=146837%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
155483=154361%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14625+7=146439%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1463+13+0=147638%3
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15534+10=155962%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
1464102=145239%4
MINMINTwins
Thorpe, Lewis
Thorpe
155235+10=152761%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
152919+0=151047%1
MINMINTwins
Clippard, Tyler
Clippard
155128+10=153353%3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15308+0=152245%0
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
15491+10=155855%3
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1532+18+0=155051%1
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154812+10=154649%4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1530+93=153647%2
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15494+10=155553%0
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151313+0=150041%0
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1548+4+10=156259%3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
1515+0+0=151545%3
MINMINTwins
Bailey, Homer
Bailey
15468+10=154855%6
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1543+0+0=154357%14
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
14979+10=149843%2
7/25Saturday, July 252:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154613+0=153355%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
14945+10=149945%10
7/24Friday, July 248:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1544+12=154351%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1496+32+10=153849%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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