Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Twins are done for the season.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins36-24
IndiansIndians35-251.0
White SoxWhite Sox35-251.0
RoyalsRoyals26-3410.0
TigersTigers23-3512.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Urquidy, Jose
Urquidy
1551+3+0=155450%3
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15481+10=155750%1
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1548+101=155746%4
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1550+17+12=157954%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1518+13+0=153145%5
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1552+1+10=156355%3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1519+13+0=153245%3
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1550+6+10=156655%7
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1517191=149740%7
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1553+2+12=156760%2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
14374+0=143330%6
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+16+10=157870%7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1437+21=143835%4
MINMINTwins
Bailey, Homer
Bailey
155212+10=155065%5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15491+0=154846%4
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1529+38+10=157754%0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1547+5+0=155252%8
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
15323+10=153948%1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
154811=154648%0
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1531+18+12=156152%1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1549+19+0=156858%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
152321+10=151242%4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
15472+0=154547%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1525+33+10=156853%1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154915+0=153451%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15236+10=152749%6
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
155012=154755%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
152220+10=151245%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
153229+0=150341%5
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1549+7+10=156659%7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153314+0=151945%4
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
15482+10=155655%8
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1535+263=155848%1
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1547+15+13=157552%3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154811+0=153755%4
STLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151723+10=150445%6
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1546+02=154453%7
STLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
15197+8=152047%3
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14462+0=144434%2
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1545+4+10=155966%6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
14446+0=143834%10
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
15471+10=155666%8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
144543=143832%3
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1546+14+7=156768%4
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:40 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
1546203=152361%3
DETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
144510+7=144239%2
9/4Friday, Sept. 42:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1446+1+0=144737%0
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154514+12=154363%2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151120+0=149142%1
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15432+10=155158%8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1512+3+0=151544%2
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1542+5+10=155756%3
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1511+372=154649%8
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1544+3+7=155451%5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1545+16+0=156166%2
DETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
14425+10=144734%3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
154719+0=152862%2
DETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
14407+10=144338%4
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
15503+4=155164%2
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14372+15=145036%8
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15522+0=155049%3
CLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1535+14+10=155951%6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
15531+0=155248%2
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+23+10=156752%4
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+143=156354%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
15356+10=153946%2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
155122+0=152961%5
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14527+10=145539%4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
1550+1+0=155163%7
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14533+10=146037%2
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1553+32=155461%2
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1451+14+12=147739%7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1520+28+0=154850%1
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15508+10=155250%7
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1517+0+0=151743%9
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1553+3+10=156657%3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
151829+0=148939%3
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1552+7+10=156961%4
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14517+0=144437%1
MINMINTwins
Wisler, Matt
Wisler
155124+10=153763%4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14522+0=145034%2
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
1550+2+10=156266%4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1450+12+0=146237%4
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15525+10=155763%2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Kennedy, Ian
Kennedy
14513+2=145034%2
MINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1551+4+13=156866%4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1548+5+0=155355%12
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
151913+10=151645%2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Clippard, Tyler
Clippard
155023+0=152751%4
MILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
15185+10=152349%6
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154812=154550%4
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1519+16+10=154550%2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15502+0=154863%2
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14494+10=145537%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
1552+7+0=155962%6
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1446+16+10=147238%9
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Smeltzer, Devin
Smeltzer
1554203=153161%2
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
14452+10=145339%3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1555+3+0=155863%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14602+10=146837%6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
155483=154361%5
PITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
14625+7=146439%2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1463+13+0=147638%3
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15534+10=155962%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Holland, Derek
Holland
1464102=145239%4
MINMINTwins
Thorpe, Lewis
Thorpe
155235+10=152761%5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
152919+0=151047%1
MINMINTwins
Clippard, Tyler
Clippard
155128+10=153353%3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15308+0=152245%0
MINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
15491+10=155855%3
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
1532+18+0=155051%1
MINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154812+10=154649%4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1530+93=153647%2
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15494+10=155553%0
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Ponce de Leon, Daniel
Ponce de Leon
151313+0=150041%0
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1548+4+10=156259%3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
1515+0+0=151545%3
MINMINTwins
Bailey, Homer
Bailey
15468+10=154855%6
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1543+0+0=154357%14
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
14979+10=149843%2
7/25Saturday, July 252:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154613+0=153355%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
14945+10=149945%10
7/24Friday, July 248:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1544+12=154351%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1496+32+10=153849%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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