2020 MLB Predictions

The Twins are done for the season.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Twins Twins36-24	—	✓	✓
Indians Indians35-25	1.0	✓	—
White Sox White Sox35-25	1.0	✓	—
Royals Royals26-34	10.0	—	—
Tigers Tigers23-35	12.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1551	+3	+0	=1554	50%	3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 301 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1548	–1	+10	=1557	50%	1
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1548	+10	–1	=1557	46%	4
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 292 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1550	+17	+12	=1579	54%	1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1518	+13	+0	=1531	45%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1552	+1	+10	=1563	55%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1519	+13	+0	=1532	45%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1550	+6	+10	=1566	55%	7
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1517	–19	–1	=1497	40%	7
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1553	+2	+12	=1567	60%	2
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1437	–4	+0	=1433	30%	6
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1552	+16	+10	=1578	70%	7
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1437	+2	–1	=1438	35%	4
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bailey	1552	–12	+10	=1550	65%	5
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1549	–1	+0	=1548	46%	4
9/20Sunday, Sept. 207 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1529	+38	+10	=1577	54%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1547	+5	+0	=1552	52%	8
9/19Saturday, Sept. 198:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1532	–3	+10	=1539	48%	1
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1548	–1	–1	=1546	48%	0
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1531	+18	+12	=1561	52%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1549	+19	+0	=1568	58%	3
9/17Thursday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1523	–21	+10	=1512	42%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1547	–2	+0	=1545	47%	5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1525	+33	+10	=1568	53%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1549	–15	+0	=1534	51%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Dunning	1523	–6	+10	=1527	49%	6
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1550	–1	–2	=1547	55%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1522	–20	+10	=1512	45%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1532	–29	+0	=1503	41%	5
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1549	+7	+10	=1566	59%	7
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1533	–14	+0	=1519	45%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 128:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1548	–2	+10	=1556	55%	8
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1535	+26	–3	=1558	48%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1547	+15	+13	=1575	52%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1548	–11	+0	=1537	55%	4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1517	–23	+10	=1504	45%	6
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1546	+0	–2	=1544	53%	7
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 83:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1519	–7	+8	=1520	47%	3
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1446	–2	+0	=1444	34%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1545	+4	+10	=1559	66%	6
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1444	–6	+0	=1438	34%	10
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1547	–1	+10	=1556	66%	8
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1445	–4	–3	=1438	32%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1546	+14	+7	=1567	68%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Wisler	1546	–20	–3	=1523	61%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1445	–10	+7	=1442	39%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 42:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1446	+1	+0	=1447	37%	0
9/4Friday, Sept. 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1545	–14	+12	=1543	63%	2
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1511	–20	+0	=1491	42%	1
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1543	–2	+10	=1551	58%	8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1512	+3	+0	=1515	44%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1542	+5	+10	=1557	56%	3
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1511	+37	–2	=1546	49%	8
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1544	+3	+7	=1554	51%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1545	+16	+0	=1561	66%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1442	–5	+10	=1447	34%	3
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Wisler	1547	–19	+0	=1528	62%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1440	–7	+10	=1443	38%	4
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1550	–3	+4	=1551	64%	2
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1437	–2	+15	=1450	36%	8
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1552	–2	+0	=1550	49%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1535	+14	+10	=1559	51%	6
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1553	–1	+0	=1552	48%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1534	+23	+10	=1567	52%	4
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1552	+14	–3	=1563	54%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1535	–6	+10	=1539	46%	2
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Wisler	1551	–22	+0	=1529	61%	5
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1452	–7	+10	=1455	39%	4
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1550	+1	+0	=1551	63%	7
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1453	–3	+10	=1460	37%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1553	+3	–2	=1554	61%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 218:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1451	+14	+12	=1477	39%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1520	+28	+0	=1548	50%	1
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1550	–8	+10	=1552	50%	7
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1517	+0	+0	=1517	43%	9
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1553	+3	+10	=1566	57%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1518	–29	+0	=1489	39%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1552	+7	+10	=1569	61%	4
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1451	–7	+0	=1444	37%	1
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Wisler	1551	–24	+10	=1537	63%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1452	–2	+0	=1450	34%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1550	+2	+10	=1562	66%	4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1450	+12	+0	=1462	37%	4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1552	–5	+10	=1557	63%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Kennedy	1451	–3	+2	=1450	34%	2
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1551	+4	+13	=1568	66%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1548	+5	+0	=1553	55%	12
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1519	–13	+10	=1516	45%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Clippard	1550	–23	+0	=1527	51%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1518	–5	+10	=1523	49%	6
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1548	–1	–2	=1545	50%	4
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1519	+16	+10	=1545	50%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1550	–2	+0	=1548	63%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1449	–4	+10	=1455	37%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Odorizzi	1552	+7	+0	=1559	62%	6
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1446	+16	+10	=1472	38%	9
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1554	–20	–3	=1531	61%	2
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1445	–2	+10	=1453	39%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1555	+3	+0	=1558	63%	5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1460	–2	+10	=1468	37%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1554	–8	–3	=1543	61%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1462	–5	+7	=1464	39%	2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1463	+13	+0	=1476	38%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1553	–4	+10	=1559	62%	7
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1464	–10	–2	=1452	39%	4
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Thorpe	1552	–35	+10	=1527	61%	5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1529	–19	+0	=1510	47%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Clippard	1551	–28	+10	=1533	53%	3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1530	–8	+0	=1522	45%	0
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1549	–1	+10	=1558	55%	3
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Clevinger	1532	+18	+0	=1550	51%	1
7/31Friday, July 318:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1548	–12	+10	=1546	49%	4
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1530	+9	–3	=1536	47%	2
7/30Thursday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1549	–4	+10	=1555	53%	0
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1513	–13	+0	=1500	41%	0
7/29Wednesday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1548	+4	+10	=1562	59%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1515	+0	+0	=1515	45%	3
7/28Tuesday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bailey	1546	–8	+10	=1548	55%	6
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1543	+0	+0	=1543	57%	14
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1497	–9	+10	=1498	43%	2
7/25Saturday, July 252:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1546	–13	+0	=1533	55%	3
7/25Saturday, July 252:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1494	–5	+10	=1499	45%	10
7/24Friday, July 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1544	+1	–2	=1543	51%	10
7/24Friday, July 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1496	+32	+10	=1538	49%	5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments