Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The White Sox are done for the season.

AL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
TwinsTwins36-24
IndiansIndians35-251.0
White SoxWhite Sox35-251.0
RoyalsRoyals26-3410.0
TigersTigers23-3512.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/1Thursday, Oct. 13 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15157+0=150844%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Fiers, Mike
Fiers
15312+10=153956%6
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 303 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1517+13+0=153045%3
OAKOAKAthletics
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1529+16+10=155555%5
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 293 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1515+372=155051%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
1532+0+12=154449%1
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
152426+0=149848%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151615+10=151152%8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152520+0=150548%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15142+10=152252%9
9/25Friday, Sept. 258 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1523+372=155857%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
151719+8=150643%0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1518+9+0=152749%4
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153511+10=153451%5
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1519+33+0=155248%2
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+25+10=156952%3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
152018+0=150252%3
CLECLEIndians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
153255+10=148748%5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
1522+32=152350%4
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153115+9=152550%7
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
152418+0=150651%3
CINCINReds
Lorenzen, Michael
Lorenzen
151223+10=149949%7
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:07 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1522+8+0=153048%5
CINCINReds
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1515+18+10=154352%0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Stiever, Jonathan
Stiever
1524192=150350%1
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151220+12=150450%7
9/17Thursday, Sept. 172:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1549+19+0=156858%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
152321+10=151242%4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
15472+0=154547%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1525+33+10=156853%1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154915+0=153451%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15236+10=152749%6
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
155012=154755%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
152220+10=151245%3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1440+18+0=145843%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Stiever, Jonathan
Stiever
152021+10=150957%5
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
14433+0=144041%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151723+10=150459%14
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
144422=144033%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1516+36+10=156267%4
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
151412+0=150255%8
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1457+3+10=147045%1
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
1515201=149452%4
PITPITPirates
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1456+14+12=148248%5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 62:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1514+5+0=151963%8
KCKCRoyals
Harvey, Matt
Harvey
144328+10=142537%2
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1513+37+0=155064%5
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14445+10=144936%3
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
15119+0=150257%7
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14453+10=145243%4
9/3Thursday, Sept. 38:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
1509182=148952%11
KCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1447+17+10=147448%6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151120+0=149142%1
MINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
15432+10=155158%8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1512+3+0=151544%2
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1542+5+10=155756%3
8/31Monday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1511+372=154649%8
MINMINTwins
Hill, Rich
Hill
1544+3+7=155451%5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
145111+0=144041%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
150919+10=150059%5
8/29Saturday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
14494+0=144542%9
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
151118+10=150358%6
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Duffy, Danny
Duffy
1450+19+0=146945%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
151017+12=150555%6
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Williams, Trevor
Williams
1458+2+0=146041%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1508+3+10=152159%10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1459+5+0=146438%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1507+31+11=154962%4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
150818+0=149039%1
CHCCHCCubs
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1524+34+10=156861%2
8/22Saturday, Aug. 228:15 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
150616+0=149041%7
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1526+21+10=155759%4
8/21Friday, Aug. 218 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1502+21=150347%10
CHCCHCCubs
Lester, Jon
Lester
152914+10=152553%1
8/20Thursday, Aug. 202 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1433+19+0=145238%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+28+10=153862%9
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1434+1+0=143542%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Dunning, Dane
Dunning
149914+10=149558%5
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1436+0+0=143642%4
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149716+10=149158%10
8/17Monday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
143862=143040%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
14956+10=149960%7
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
151614+0=150249%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1493+2+10=150551%7
8/15Saturday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Woodford, Jake
Woodford
151420+0=149450%6
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Foster, Matt
Foster
14958+10=149750%3
8/15Saturday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1512+1+5=151847%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1497+31+13=154153%1
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149615+0=148155%7
DETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
14433+10=145045%5
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
14945+0=148956%8
DETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
14456+10=144944%4
8/10Monday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1496+22=149657%1
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
1442+0+8=145043%5
8/9Sunday, Aug. 97 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+15+0=154952%5
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1497+29+10=153648%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153123+0=150852%7
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Foster, Matt
Foster
150013+10=149748%1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
1533162=151553%0
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149817+10=149147%2
8/6Thursday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lindblom, Josh
Lindblom
151810+0=150850%8
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1500+1+10=151150%3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1517+121=152853%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
15012+9=150847%0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1500+29+0=152946%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1519+32+10=156154%2
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
149922=149544%6
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
1520+2+15=153756%4
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149619+0=147753%9
KCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1446+1+10=145747%2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Gonzalez, Gio
Gonzalez
1494+3+0=149757%11
KCKCRoyals
Bolanos, Ronald
Bolanos
144812+10=144643%5
7/31Friday, July 318:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
1493+01=149256%3
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
14496+7=145044%2
7/29Wednesday, July 296:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1491+27+0=151851%4
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
153229+10=151349%0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:45 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1493+2+0=149549%3
CLECLEIndians
Plutko, Adam
Plutko
153141+10=150051%5
7/28Tuesday, July 283:40 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
149414+0=148044%3
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153019+12=152356%4
7/26Sunday, July 262:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1543+0+0=154357%14
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
14979+10=149843%2
7/25Saturday, July 252:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Dobnak, Randy
Dobnak
154613+0=153355%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
14945+10=149945%10
7/24Friday, July 248:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1544+12=154351%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1496+32+10=153849%5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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