Updated Aug. 8, 2020 at 1:27 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Yankees have a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1573, the same as last week.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
YankeesYankees9-499%80%
RaysRays6-73.078%14%
Red SoxRed Sox5-84.044%4%
Blue JaysBlue Jays4-74.031%2%
OriolesOrioles6-73.07%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+0=162562%
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15356+10=153938%
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157354%
TBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+10=154546%
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15739+0=156451%
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+15+10=156049%
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153651=153047%
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157330+9=155253%
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
153629+0=150739%
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15731+10=158261%
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1506+62=151033%
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+12=163767%
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:15 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
150611+0=149539%
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15739+10=157461%
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+0=150543%
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157330+10=155357%
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
150633+0=147335%
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15731+10=158265%
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153536%
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+10=163564%
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
8/21Friday, Aug. 217 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+01=157256%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+7=152844%
8/22Saturday, Aug. 227:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157356%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153144%
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157356%
NYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+10=153144%
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+01=157254%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+12=154846%
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157354%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
1536+0+10=154646%
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
152211=152041%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+9=158259%
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152141%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158359%
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Pitcher TBD
15221+0=152141%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158359%
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+03=153243%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Pitcher TBD
1535+0+0=153543%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158357%
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+12=143231%
9/4Friday, Sept. 48:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143031%
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143031%
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157369%
BALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+10=143031%
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+02=157162%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+8=148538%
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/10Thursday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
142111=141928%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+8=158172%
9/11Friday, Sept. 117:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142028%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158372%
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142028%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158372%
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Pitcher TBD
14211+0=142028%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158372%
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147735%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+12=158565%
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147735%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158365%
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+0=147735%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158365%
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+02=157158%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+7=151242%
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157358%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151542%
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157358%
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pitcher TBD
15061+10=151542%
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+02=157162%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+0=157362%
TORTORBlue Jays
Pitcher TBD
1477+0+10=148738%
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+03=146334%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+8=158166%
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146634%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158366%
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1466+0+0=146634%
NYYNYYYankees
Pitcher TBD
1573+0+10=158366%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
157443=156753%0
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1534+2+12=154847%1
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157511+0=156460%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+10=149340%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
1574331=154051%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+25+9=153549%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1499+20+2=152144%11
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157627+12=156156%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150015+6=149130%3
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1575+52+10=163770%6
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brice, Austin
Brice
15053+0=150239%7
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15746+10=157861%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150615+0=149138%2
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15736+10=157762%5
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
1507311=147538%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157215+8=156562%5
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157126+0=154564%8
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1414+25+10=144936%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1570+52+4=162676%9
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14151+13=142724%3
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
156937+0=153247%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15504+10=155653%2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15723+2=157160%2
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154756+12=150340%9
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1571+512=162056%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+19+10=157744%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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