2020 MLB Predictions

The Yankees are done for the season.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays40-20	—	✓	✓
Yankees Yankees33-27	7.0	✓	—
Blue Jays Blue Jays32-28	8.0	✓	—
Orioles Orioles25-35	15.0	—	—
Red Sox Red Sox24-36	16.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/9Friday, Oct. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1564	+44	+0	=1608	58%	1
10/9Friday, Oct. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1561	+3	+0	=1564	42%	2
10/8Thursday, Oct. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Thompson	1563	–26	+0	=1537	47%	1
10/8Thursday, Oct. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1561	–11	+0	=1550	53%	5
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1561	+13	+0	=1574	54%	8
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1564	–11	+0	=1553	46%	4
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1566	–29	+0	=1537	45%	5
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1559	+4	+0	=1563	55%	7
10/5Monday, Oct. 58:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1563	+46	+7	=1616	57%	9
10/5Monday, Oct. 58:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1562	+9	+7	=1578	43%	3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 307 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1561	–8	+0	=1553	53%	10
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 307 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1530	–1	+10	=1539	47%	9
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 297 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1557	+44	+0	=1601	55%	12
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 297 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1534	+29	+12	=1575	45%	3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Urena	1465	–6	+0	=1459	40%	5
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Schmidt	1560	–36	+10	=1534	60%	0
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1467	–15	+0	=1452	38%	4
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1558	–33	+10	=1535	62%	11
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1466	+15	–3	=1478	39%	4
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1559	–8	+8	=1559	61%	3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1561	–14	+0	=1547	53%	1
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1488	+32	+10	=1530	47%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1566	–3	+0	=1563	62%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1483	–12	+10	=1481	38%	14
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1565	+42	+0	=1607	68%	12
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1484	–21	+10	=1473	32%	1
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1567	–40	–2	=1525	53%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Shoemaker	1482	+13	+8	=1503	47%	11
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1571	–26	+0	=1545	57%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1484	+5	+10	=1499	43%	10
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1568	–18	+0	=1550	58%	8
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1486	–1	+10	=1495	42%	0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1567	–15	–2	=1550	58%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1487	–2	+7	=1492	42%	5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1486	–6	+0	=1480	37%	7
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1566	–4	+10	=1572	63%	10
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1488	–16	+0	=1472	31%	2
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1564	+39	+10	=1613	69%	13
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1492	+5	+0	=1497	43%	6
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1561	–25	+12	=1548	57%	20
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+14	+0	=1447	35%	1
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1560	–19	+10	=1551	65%	3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1433	+8	+0	=1441	35%	1
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1560	–18	+10	=1552	65%	2
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1435	+9	+0	=1444	33%	1
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1558	–4	+10	=1564	67%	10
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Cobb	1436	–1	+1	=1436	28%	0
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1557	+37	+10	=1604	72%	6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1555	–28	+0	=1527	56%	7
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1494	–17	+10	=1487	44%	2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1556	–19	+0	=1537	54%	1
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Walker	1493	+4	+10	=1507	46%	2
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1558	–14	–2	=1542	52%	7
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1490	+31	+8	=1529	48%	12
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1561	–1	+0	=1560	67%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1430	–2	+10	=1438	33%	5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1565	+38	+0	=1603	72%	1
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1426	+3	+10	=1439	28%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1567	–27	+0	=1540	67%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1424	–18	+10	=1416	33%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1566	–36	–2	=1528	65%	6
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1425	–13	+12	=1424	35%	5
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1568	–19	–1	=1548	58%	7
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1519	–36	+8	=1491	42%	9
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1554	+13	+0	=1567	50%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1570	–11	+10	=1569	50%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Richards	1555	–29	+0	=1526	43%	3
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1569	–6	+10	=1573	57%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1554	–4	–3	=1547	39%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1570	+41	+9	=1620	61%	3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 305:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Garcia	1569	–38	–1	=1530	52%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 305:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lugo	1523	–14	+9	=1518	48%	2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Porcello	1524	–17	+0	=1507	46%	7
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1568	–39	+10	=1539	54%	8
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Gsellman	1525	–41	–1	=1483	41%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1567	–27	+9	=1549	59%	2
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Loaisiga	1568	–31	–1	=1536	52%	3
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1524	–11	+9	=1522	48%	4
8/28Friday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Wacha	1522	–23	+1	=1500	40%	6
8/28Friday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1570	–11	+9	=1568	60%	4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1571	–8	+0	=1563	50%	1
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1537	+18	+10	=1565	50%	2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1573	+50	+4	=1627	63%	1
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1534	–11	+15	=1538	37%	5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Curtiss	1546	–30	+0	=1516	41%	10
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1576	–8	+10	=1578	59%	5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1545	–10	+0	=1535	35%	4
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1578	+51	+10	=1639	65%	2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1543	+11	+0	=1554	45%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1580	–3	+10	=1587	55%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1494	–4	+0	=1490	38%	3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1579	–14	+10	=1575	62%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Mazza	1495	+0	+0	=1495	41%	2
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1578	–30	+10	=1558	59%	4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1497	+10	+0	=1507	40%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1576	–7	+10	=1579	60%	11
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brewer	1498	–2	–2	=1494	31%	3
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1574	+49	+12	=1635	69%	10
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1534	–12	+0	=1522	41%	3
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1573	+0	+10	=1583	59%	6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1535	–3	–1	=1531	45%	6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1572	–15	+9	=1566	55%	9
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1573	–8	+0	=1565	51%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Morton	1535	+16	+10	=1561	49%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:30 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1574	–38	+0	=1536	54%	3
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:30 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Thompson	1534	–31	+10	=1513	46%	5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1573	+52	+0	=1625	62%	8
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1535	–6	+10	=1539	38%	4
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1574	–4	–3	=1567	53%	0
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Snell	1534	+2	+12	=1548	47%	1
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1575	–11	+0	=1564	60%	4
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Eflin	1500	–17	+10	=1493	40%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Loaisiga	1574	–33	–1	=1540	51%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1501	+25	+9	=1535	49%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1499	+20	+2	=1521	44%	11
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1576	–27	+12	=1561	56%	7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Arrieta	1500	–15	+6	=1491	30%	3
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1575	+52	+10	=1637	70%	6
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Brice	1505	–3	+0	=1502	39%	7
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1574	–6	+10	=1578	61%	9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Godley	1506	–15	+0	=1491	38%	2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Tanaka	1573	–6	+10	=1577	62%	5
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Weber	1507	–31	–1	=1475	38%	1
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1572	–15	+8	=1565	62%	5
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Happ	1571	–26	+0	=1545	64%	8
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1414	+25	+10	=1449	36%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1570	+52	+4	=1626	76%	9
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wojciechowski	1415	–1	+13	=1427	24%	3
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Loaisiga	1569	–37	+0	=1532	47%	3
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1550	–4	+10	=1556	53%	2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Paxton	1572	–3	+2	=1571	60%	2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1547	–56	+12	=1503	40%	9
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1571	+51	–2	=1620	56%	4
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1548	+19	+10	=1577	44%	1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments