Updated Oct. 26, 2020 at 12:57 AM

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Yankees are done for the season.

AL East standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
RaysRays40-20
YankeesYankees33-277.0
Blue JaysBlue Jays32-288.0
OriolesOrioles25-3515.0
Red SoxRed Sox24-3616.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/9Friday, Oct. 97:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1564+44+0=160858%1
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1561+3+0=156442%2
10/8Thursday, Oct. 87:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Thompson, Ryan
Thompson
156326+0=153747%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
156111+0=155053%5
10/7Wednesday, Oct. 77:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1561+13+0=157454%8
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
156411+0=155346%4
10/6Tuesday, Oct. 68:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
156629+0=153745%5
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1559+4+0=156355%7
10/5Monday, Oct. 58:07 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1563+46+7=161657%9
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1562+9+7=157843%3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 307 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15618+0=155353%10
CLECLEIndians
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
15301+10=153947%9
9/29Tuesday, Sept. 297 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1557+44+0=160155%12
CLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1534+29+12=157545%3
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Urena, Jose
Urena
14656+0=145940%5
NYYNYYYankees
Schmidt, Clarke
Schmidt
156036+10=153460%0
9/26Saturday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
146715+0=145238%4
NYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
155833+10=153562%11
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1466+153=147839%4
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
15598+8=155961%3
9/24Thursday, Sept. 246:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
156114+0=154753%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1488+32+10=153047%4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15663+0=156362%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Ray, Robbie
Ray
148312+10=148138%14
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1565+42+0=160768%12
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148421+10=147332%1
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
1567402=152553%5
TORTORBlue Jays
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
1482+13+8=150347%11
9/20Sunday, Sept. 201:07 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
157126+0=154557%2
BOSBOSRed Sox
Houck, Tanner
Houck
1484+5+10=149943%10
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
156818+0=155058%8
BOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
14861+10=149542%0
9/18Friday, Sept. 187:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
1567152=155058%6
BOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14872+7=149242%5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Merryweather, Julian
Merryweather
14866+0=148037%7
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15664+10=157263%10
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 167:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
148816+0=147231%2
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1564+39+10=161369%13
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1492+5+0=149743%6
NYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
156125+12=154857%20
9/13Sunday, Sept. 131:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1433+14+0=144735%1
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
156019+10=155165%3
9/12Saturday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1433+8+0=144135%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
156018+10=155265%2
9/11Friday, Sept. 116:55 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1435+9+0=144433%1
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15584+10=156467%10
9/11Friday, Sept. 114:05 p.m. EasternBALBALOrioles
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
14361+1=143628%0
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1557+37+10=160472%6
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 96:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
155528+0=152756%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Roark, Tanner
Roark
149417+10=148744%2
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 86:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
155619+0=153754%1
TORTORBlue Jays
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1493+4+10=150746%2
9/7Monday, Sept. 76:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
1558142=154252%7
TORTORBlue Jays
Ryu, Hyun-Jin
Ryu
1490+31+8=152948%12
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15611+0=156067%1
BALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
14302+10=143833%5
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1565+38+0=160372%1
BALBALOrioles
Akin, Keegan
Akin
1426+3+10=143928%6
9/4Friday, Sept. 49:20 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
156727+0=154067%3
BALBALOrioles
Lopez, Jorge
Lopez
142418+10=141633%6
9/4Friday, Sept. 45:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
1566362=152865%6
BALBALOrioles
Eshelman, Tom
Eshelman
142513+12=142435%5
9/3Thursday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
1568191=154858%7
NYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
151936+8=149142%9
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1554+13+0=156750%5
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157011+10=156950%2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Richards, Trevor
Richards
155529+0=152643%3
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15696+10=157357%5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
155443=154739%5
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1570+41+9=162061%3
8/30Sunday, Aug. 305:20 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Garcia, Deivi
Garcia
1569381=153052%5
NYMNYMMets
Lugo, Seth
Lugo
152314+9=151848%2
8/30Sunday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Porcello, Rick
Porcello
152417+0=150746%7
NYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
156839+10=153954%8
8/29Saturday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Gsellman, Robert
Gsellman
1525411=148341%1
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
156727+9=154959%2
8/28Friday, Aug. 287:20 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
1568311=153652%3
NYMNYMMets
Peterson, David
Peterson
152411+9=152248%4
8/28Friday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
152223+1=150040%6
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157011+9=156860%4
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 267 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15718+0=156350%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1537+18+10=156550%2
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 264:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+50+4=162763%1
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
153411+15=153837%5
8/20Thursday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
154630+0=151641%10
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15768+10=157859%5
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
154510+0=153535%4
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1578+51+10=163965%2
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1543+11+0=155445%6
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15803+10=158755%3
8/17Monday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Perez, Martin
Perez
14944+0=149038%3
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157914+10=157562%6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 167 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Mazza, Chris
Mazza
1495+0+0=149541%2
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157830+10=155859%4
8/15Saturday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1497+10+0=150740%5
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15767+10=157960%11
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brewer, Colten
Brewer
149822=149431%3
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1574+49+12=163569%10
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Ynoa, Huascar
Ynoa
153412+0=152241%3
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
1573+0+10=158359%6
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 117 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153531=153145%6
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157215+9=156655%9
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15738+0=156551%3
TBTBRays
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1535+16+10=156149%4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 85:30 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
King, Michael
King
157438+0=153654%3
TBTBRays
Thompson, Ryan
Thompson
153431+10=151346%5
8/8Saturday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+52+0=162562%8
TBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
15356+10=153938%4
8/7Friday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
157443=156753%0
TBTBRays
Snell, Blake
Snell
1534+2+12=154847%1
8/6Thursday, Aug. 66:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157511+0=156460%4
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150017+10=149340%5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:25 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
1574331=154051%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+25+9=153549%1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 54:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1499+20+2=152144%11
NYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157627+12=156156%7
8/3Monday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150015+6=149130%3
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1575+52+10=163770%6
8/2Sunday, Aug. 27 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Brice, Austin
Brice
15053+0=150239%7
NYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15746+10=157861%9
8/1Saturday, Aug. 17:07 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Godley, Zack
Godley
150615+0=149138%2
NYYNYYYankees
Tanaka, Masahiro
Tanaka
15736+10=157762%5
7/31Friday, July 317 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Weber, Ryan
Weber
1507311=147538%1
NYYNYYYankees
Montgomery, Jordan
Montgomery
157215+8=156562%5
7/30Thursday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Happ, J.A.
Happ
157126+0=154564%8
BALBALOrioles
Means, John
Means
1414+25+10=144936%6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:35 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1570+52+4=162676%9
BALBALOrioles
Wojciechowski, Asher
Wojciechowski
14151+13=142724%3
7/26Sunday, July 261:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Loaisiga, Jonathan
Loaisiga
156937+0=153247%3
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15504+10=155653%2
7/25Saturday, July 257:15 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Paxton, James
Paxton
15723+2=157160%2
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
154756+12=150340%9
7/23Thursday, July 237 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1571+512=162056%4
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1548+19+10=157744%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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