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UPDATED Oct. 20, 2019, at 11:38 PM

2019-20 NBA Predictions

Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Miami Heat have a 75% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler05290034SAME
+3.0
+1.8
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo00002626SAME
-1.9
+2.1
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow25020027SAME
0.0
+0.9
Goran DragicG. Dragic23000023SAME
+0.5
-0.8
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00021324SAME
+0.2
+0.4
Dion WaitersD. Waiters02310024SAME
+0.5
-0.7
Tyler HerroT. Herro02000020SAME
-1.3
-1.3
Meyers Leonard*M. Leonard*00021820SAME
-1.2
-1.7
Derrick Jones Jr.D. Jones Jr.00711018SAME
-0.9
+1.4
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00414018SAME
-1.6
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson005005SAME
-1.5
-0.8
KZ OkpalaK. Okpala000000SAME
-2.6
-1.6
Kendrick NunnK. Nunn000000SAME
-1.4
-0.9
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000000SAME
-5.1
+0.3
Chris SilvaC. Silva000011SAME
0.0
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.2
+1.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.4
+1.2
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
109-108
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
Team ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Team rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1525
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler05290034
+3.0
+1.8
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo00002626
-1.9
+2.1
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow25020027
0.0
+0.9
Goran DragicG. Dragic23000023
+0.5
-0.8
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00021324
+0.2
+0.4
Dion WaitersD. Waiters02310024
+0.5
-0.7
Tyler HerroT. Herro02000020
-1.3
-1.3
Meyers Leonard*M. Leonard*00021820
-1.2
-1.7
Derrick Jones Jr.D. Jones Jr.00711018
-0.9
+1.4
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00414018
-1.6
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson005005
-1.5
-0.8
KZ OkpalaK. Okpala000000
-2.6
-1.6
Kendrick NunnK. Nunn000000
-1.4
-0.9
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000000
-5.1
+0.3
Chris SilvaC. Silva000011
0.0
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.2
+1.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.4
+1.2
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
109-108
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
Team ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Team rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1525
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler016202038+4
+3.3
+1.8
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo00002929+3
-2.0
+2.1
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow220100032+5
+0.1
+0.9
Goran DragicG. Dragic25000025+2
+0.4
-0.8
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00021223-1
+0.3
+0.4
Dion WaitersD. Waiters012120024SAME
+0.6
-0.6
Tyler HerroT. Herro01800018-2
-1.3
-1.3
Meyers Leonard*M. Leonard*00091120SAME
-1.0
-1.7
Derrick Jones Jr.D. Jones Jr.0229013-5
-0.9
+1.4
James JohnsonJ. Johnson0047011-7
-1.6
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson000000-5
-1.4
-0.8
KZ OkpalaK. Okpala000000SAME
-2.5
-1.5
Kendrick NunnK. Nunn100001+1
-1.3
-0.9
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000000SAME
-5.0
+0.3
Chris SilvaC. Silva000066+5
0.0
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.6
+1.9
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+0.4
+1.7
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
106-104
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
Team ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Team rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1555
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1554
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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