shoe gif

UPDATED Aug. 16, 2019, at 4:52 PM

2019-20 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

shoe gif

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 36% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Chris PaulC. Paul30000030SAME
+2.8
+0.7
Danilo GallinariD. Gallinari001020030SAME
+1.5
-0.1
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander02400024SAME
+0.4
-0.2
Steven AdamsS. Adams00002424SAME
-0.3
+2.1
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder18000018SAME
+0.7
-2.1
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01700017SAME
-0.3
-1.3
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00014923SAME
-0.7
+1.0
Andre RobersonA. Roberson00220022SAME
-1.8
+2.1
Nerlens NoelN. Noel00001515SAME
-2.4
+3.6
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo060006SAME
-1.7
-1.2
Darius BazleyD. Bazley00314017SAME
-2.2
-0.3
Deonte BurtonD. Burton010001SAME
-2.1
-0.2
Abdel NaderA. Nader00130013SAME
-2.9
-1.1
Luguentz DortL. Dort000000SAME
-2.8
-1.6
Replacement-level PFRepl. PF000000SAME
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.8
+2.1
Rotation winsWe use the ratings to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use the ratings to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
44
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1537
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Chris PaulC. Paul30000030
+2.8
+0.7
Danilo GallinariD. Gallinari001020030
+1.5
-0.1
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander02400024
+0.4
-0.2
Steven AdamsS. Adams00002424
-0.3
+2.1
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder18000018
+0.7
-2.1
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01700017
-0.3
-1.3
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00014923
-0.7
+1.0
Andre RobersonA. Roberson00220022
-1.8
+2.1
Nerlens NoelN. Noel00001515
-2.4
+3.6
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo060006
-1.7
-1.2
Darius BazleyD. Bazley00314017
-2.2
-0.3
Deonte BurtonD. Burton010001
-2.1
-0.2
Abdel NaderA. Nader00130013
-2.9
-1.1
Luguentz DortL. Dort000000
-2.8
-1.6
Replacement-level PFRepl. PF000000
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.8
+2.1
Rotation winsWe use the ratings to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use the ratings to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
44
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1537
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Chris PaulC. Paul32000032+2
+3.0
+0.9
Danilo GallinariD. Gallinari001417031+1
+1.4
-0.3
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander03200032+8
+0.4
-0.3
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003434+10
-0.5
+2.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder16000016-2
+0.8
-2.0
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01600016-1
-0.3
-1.3
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00013821-2
-0.8
+1.0
Andre RobersonA. Roberson00230023+1
-1.8
+2.1
Nerlens NoelN. Noel000066-9
-2.5
+3.6
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo000000-6
-1.7
-1.2
Darius BazleyD. Bazley00212014-3
-2.2
-0.3
Deonte BurtonD. Burton000000-1
-2.1
-0.2
Abdel NaderA. Nader009009-4
-2.9
-1.1
Luguentz DortL. Dort000000SAME
-2.8
-1.6
Replacement-level PFRepl. PF000606+6
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
+2.2
Rotation winsWe use the ratings to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use the ratings to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
47
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1562
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s CARMELO rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s CARMELO rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1563
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments