Updated Sep. 23, 2021, at 12:44 AM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Team rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj.
rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake
Play-
offs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL West1606
-1
104-58+26034%30%
AL East1569
-1
99-63+182>99%14%
AL West1565
+7
96-66+223>99%>99%14%
NL West1555
-2
105-57+19266%10%
NL East1549
+4
87-75+12389%88%7%
AL East1547
-4
90-72+3341%<1%2%
AL East1547
91-71+18061%<1%3%
NL Central1543
-9
96-66+122>99%9%
AL Central1536
-4
91-71+147>99%>99%7%
AL East1527
+9
93-69+9095%<1%3%
NL West1524
-1
81-81+38<1%<1%
AL West1520
+1
87-75+58<1%<1%<1%
NL Central1520
+14
88-74+2095%<1%2%
NL East1511
-9
78-84-32<1%<1%<1%
NL East1506
+5
83-79-613%12%<1%
NL Central1503
-2
84-78+283%<1%
AL Central1502
+6
80-82-12<1%<1%<1%
AL West1493
+5
88-74-543%<1%<1%
AL Central1492
+1
72-90-108
AL West1487
-4
77-85-92
NL East1485
67-95-82
AL Central1478
+6
79-83-57
NL West1478
+6
76-86-41<1%<1%
AL Central1470
-1
73-89-99
NL East1465
-5
68-94-60
NL Central1461
-7
72-90-130
AL West1439
-9
60-102-190
NL West1435
-5
52-110-234
NL Central1426
+5
61-101-214
AL East1411
-2
52-110-286
Forecast from

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

Comments