Updated Sep. 17, 2021, at 10:18 PM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Team rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj.
rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake
Play-
offs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL West1606
+4
103-59+26142%32%
AL East1570
-4
99-63+180>99%>99%12%
AL West1562
+3
95-67+213>99%>99%13%
NL West1553
+6
104-58+19258%9%
AL East1552
91-71+4962%<1%4%
NL Central1550
+4
98-64+141>99%>99%10%
AL East1546
+3
91-71+18159%<1%3%
NL East1544
-3
86-76+10582%80%5%
AL Central1536
-2
92-70+144>99%>99%7%
NL West1529
-4
83-79+4719%<1%
AL West1522
-1
87-75+645%<1%<1%
AL East1521
+3
91-71+7173%<1%2%
NL East1516
-5
79-83-201%1%<1%
NL Central1509
+9
84-78-635%<1%<1%
NL Central1507
-1
85-77+3639%<1%<1%
NL East1505
-2
83-79-423%18%<1%
AL Central1497
-7
80-82-29<1%<1%<1%
AL West1495
+2
80-82-74<1%<1%<1%
AL Central1491
-2
72-90-109
AL West1486
-6
86-76-662%<1%<1%
NL East1484
-2
67-95-84
NL West1473
+6
75-87-53<1%<1%
AL Central1473
+5
77-85-65<1%<1%<1%
NL East1470
69-93-48<1%<1%<1%
AL Central1468
73-89-102
NL Central1465
-7
73-89-124<1%<1%
AL West1445
-1
61-101-176
NL West1439
53-109-220
NL Central1423
+4
61-101-222
AL East1413
-4
53-109-281
Forecast from

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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