Blue Jays | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Blue Jays have a 38% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1536, up 7 points from last week.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Rays Rays64-44	—	89%	57%
Red Sox Red Sox63-45	1.0	71%	27%
Yankees Yankees57-49	6.0	44%	9%
Blue Jays Blue Jays55-49	7.0	38%	8%
Orioles Orioles38-68	25.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1500	–30	+0	=1470	40%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1536	–17	+24	=1543	60%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1500	–7	+0	=1493	43%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1536	–18	+24	=1542	57%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1525	+21	–2	=1544	46%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1536	+13	+24	=1573	54%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 73:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1525	–3	+0	=1522	40%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 73:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1536	+29	+24	=1589	60%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1525	+14	+0	=1539	45%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1536	+17	+24	=1577	55%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1525	–22	+0	=1503	39%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1536	+22	+24	=1582	61%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 106:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Rodriguez	1498	–10	–2	=1486	42%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 106:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1536	–17	+26	=1545	58%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1536	–18	–4	=1514	56%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1498	–45	+20	=1473	44%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 119:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1536	+13	+0	=1549	54%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 119:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	46%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1536	+29	+0	=1565	56%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1498	+3	+24	=1525	44%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1536	+17	–3	=1550	56%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1486	–1	+24	=1509	44%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1536	+22	+0	=1558	55%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1486	+12	+24	=1522	45%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	54%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1486	+8	+24	=1518	46%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	–2	=1542	53%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1505	–7	+26	=1524	47%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	53%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1505	–7	+24	=1522	47%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1467	–2	–2	=1463	35%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	65%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 213:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1467	–2	+0	=1465	36%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 213:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	64%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1467	–2	+0	=1465	36%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	64%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1539	+1	–3	=1537	45%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	55%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1539	+1	+0	=1540	46%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	54%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1539	+1	+0	=1540	46%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	54%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 263:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1539	+1	+0	=1540	46%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 263:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	54%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	–2	=1542	58%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1467	–2	+24	=1489	42%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	58%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1467	–2	+24	=1489	42%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	58%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1467	–2	+24	=1489	42%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	–2	=1440	32%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+22	=1566	68%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+0	=1442	33%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	67%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+0	=1442	33%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	67%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1523	+2	–2	=1523	43%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+26	=1570	57%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 43:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1523	+2	+0	=1525	44%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 43:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	56%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1523	+2	+0	=1525	44%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	56%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	–2	=1542	46%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+24	=1570	54%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	46%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+24	=1570	54%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	46%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+24	=1570	54%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	46%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+24	=1570	54%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	–2	=1542	61%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+24	=1466	39%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 114:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	61%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 114:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+24	=1466	39%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	61%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+24	=1466	39%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	61%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+24	=1466	39%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1556	–6	–2	=1548	47%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+22	=1566	53%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1556	–6	+0	=1550	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	53%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1556	–6	+0	=1550	47%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	53%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	–1	=1489	39%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+26	=1570	61%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	+0	=1490	39%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	61%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	+0	=1490	39%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	61%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	–3	=1541	45%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1556	–6	+24	=1574	55%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	46%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1556	–6	+24	=1574	54%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 223:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	46%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 223:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1556	–6	+24	=1574	54%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	–3	=1541	54%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	+22	=1512	46%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	54%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	+24	=1514	46%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	54%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	+24	=1514	46%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+0	=1544	54%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–1	+24	=1514	46%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+3	=1549	47%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+23	=1567	53%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+0	=1546	47%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	53%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1548	–2	+0	=1546	47%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	53%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	–2	=1440	32%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	68%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+0	=1442	33%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	67%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1435	+7	+0	=1442	33%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1536	+8	+24	=1568	67%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1501	+17	+0	=1518	41%	2
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1534	+20	+24	=1578	59%	7
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1499	–17	–2	=1480	36%	5
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1536	+18	+24	=1578	64%	2
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1457	+1	+0	=1458	32%	1
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1535	+28	+24	=1587	68%	5
7/31Saturday, July 313:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1458	+10	+0	=1468	36%	0
7/31Saturday, July 313:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1534	+7	+24	=1565	64%	4
7/30Friday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1459	–16	–3	=1440	36%	4
7/30Friday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1533	–16	+22	=1539	64%	6
7/29Thursday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1529	+18	+0	=1547	47%	13
7/29Thursday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1534	+9	+24	=1567	53%	1
7/28Wednesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1531	–11	+0	=1520	44%	1
7/28Wednesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1533	+6	+24	=1563	56%	4
7/28Wednesday, July 282:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1529	+19	+2	=1550	52%	4
7/28Wednesday, July 282:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1534	–21	+26	=1539	48%	1
7/26Monday, July 267 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Hatch	1530	–12	–2	=1516	45%	4
7/26Monday, July 267 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1534	–5	+24	=1553	55%	5
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1531	–18	+0	=1513	44%	4
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Hill	1534	–4	+24	=1554	56%	5
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1528	+21	+0	=1549	49%	10
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1537	–6	+24	=1555	51%	3
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1530	–11	+0	=1519	47%	0
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1535	–22	+23	=1536	53%	3
7/21Wednesday, July 217:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1529	–20	+2	=1511	40%	7
7/21Wednesday, July 217:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1532	+21	+26	=1579	60%	4
7/19Monday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1525	–2	–2	=1521	46%	13
7/19Monday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1535	–12	+24	=1547	54%	4
7/18Sunday, July 183:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Foltynewicz	1454	–1	+0	=1453	38%	0
7/18Sunday, July 183:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1533	–17	+24	=1540	62%	10
7/18Sunday, July 181:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1455	–6	+2	=1451	33%	0
7/18Sunday, July 181:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1532	+16	+26	=1574	67%	5
7/16Friday, July 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1457	–12	+4	=1449	32%	2
7/16Friday, July 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1530	+18	+28	=1576	68%	10
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1528	+12	+0	=1540	43%	3
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Hill	1554	+9	+24	=1587	57%	1
7/10Saturday, July 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1530	–5	+0	=1525	43%	2
7/10Saturday, July 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1553	–4	+24	=1573	57%	5
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1532	+9	–1	=1540	46%	1
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1551	–6	+26	=1571	54%	7
7/7Wednesday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1530	+17	+0	=1547	65%	10
7/7Wednesday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Harvey	1432	–20	+24	=1436	35%	2
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1532	–12	+0	=1520	59%	5
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1431	+6	+22	=1459	41%	7
7/4Sunday, July 41:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1545	–5	+0	=1540	46%	5
7/4Sunday, July 41:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1534	+10	+24	=1568	54%	1
7/3Saturday, July 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1546	–6	+0	=1540	49%	3
7/3Saturday, July 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1532	–7	+24	=1549	51%	6
7/2Friday, July 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Patino	1549	–21	+0	=1528	47%	1
7/2Friday, July 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1529	–1	+24	=1552	53%	11
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1479	+18	+0	=1497	38%	7
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1532	+25	+24	=1581	62%	2
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1477	–13	+0	=1464	38%	9
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1534	–8	+24	=1550	62%	7
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1479	–13	+0	=1466	36%	3
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1532	+9	+26	=1567	64%	9
6/27Sunday, June 271:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1423	–2	+0	=1421	32%	2
6/27Sunday, June 271:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1531	–7	+24	=1548	68%	5
6/26Saturday, June 263:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1425	+1	+0	=1426	29%	4
6/26Saturday, June 263:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1530	+26	+24	=1580	71%	12
6/25Friday, June 257:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Harvey	1423	–27	+0	=1396	30%	6
6/25Friday, June 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1532	–8	+24	=1548	70%	5
6/24Thursday, June 247:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1425	+1	–2	=1424	34%	0
6/24Thursday, June 247:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1530	–11	+21	=1540	66%	9
6/23Wednesday, June 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1528	+9	+0	=1537	53%	3
6/23Wednesday, June 237:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1476	+18	+24	=1518	47%	1
6/22Tuesday, June 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1527	–8	–1	=1518	50%	2
6/22Tuesday, June 227:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1477	+15	+23	=1515	50%	1
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1526	+26	+0	=1552	67%	7
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Harvey	1431	–29	+24	=1426	33%	4
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1525	+2	+0	=1527	60%	10
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1432	–2	+24	=1454	40%	7
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1529	+10	–2	=1537	64%	1
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Eshelman	1428	–14	+22	=1436	36%	7
6/17Thursday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1549	–42	+0	=1507	44%	8
6/17Thursday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1531	–5	+24	=1550	56%	4
6/16Wednesday, June 167:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1548	+47	+0	=1595	57%	3
6/16Wednesday, June 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1532	–12	+24	=1544	43%	2
6/15Tuesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1547	–4	+0	=1543	44%	6
6/15Tuesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1533	+27	+22	=1582	56%	5
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1534	–5	+0	=1529	47%	1
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1517	+8	+24	=1549	53%	2
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1530	+9	+0	=1539	50%	18
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1521	–7	+24	=1538	50%	4
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1527	–8	+0	=1519	46%	7
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1524	–2	+24	=1546	54%	2
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1528	–11	–3	=1514	46%	5
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1523	–4	+24	=1543	54%	6
6/10Thursday, June 108 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1530	+31	+0	=1561	53%	2
6/10Thursday, June 108 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1536	–19	+24	=1541	47%	5
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1527	–7	+0	=1520	40%	6
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1539	+29	+24	=1592	60%	2
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1529	+7	+0	=1536	46%	1
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1537	+2	+26	=1565	54%	6
6/6Sunday, June 61:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1556	+6	+0	=1562	51%	6
6/6Sunday, June 61:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1531	–3	+24	=1552	49%	3
6/5Saturday, June 53:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1558	+5	+0	=1563	53%	2
6/5Saturday, June 53:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1529	–13	+24	=1540	47%	6
6/4Friday, June 47:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1554	+6	–3	=1557	44%	13
6/4Friday, June 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1533	+38	+26	=1597	56%	1
6/2Wednesday, June 27:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1475	+12	+0	=1487	40%	5
6/2Wednesday, June 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1533	+0	+24	=1557	60%	6
6/1Tuesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1476	+13	+3	=1492	41%	1
6/1Tuesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1531	+2	+24	=1557	59%	5
5/30Sunday, May 303:55 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1532	–5	+0	=1527	53%	5
5/30Sunday, May 303:55 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1509	–26	+24	=1507	47%	6
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1530	–17	+2	=1515	45%	4
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1511	+13	+26	=1550	55%	1
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1528	+38	–2	=1564	57%	11
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1514	–22	+23	=1515	43%	2
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1529	+5	+0	=1534	44%	3
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1561	–9	+24	=1576	56%	5
5/27Thursday, May 274:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1527	–8	+2	=1521	42%	2
5/27Thursday, May 274:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1563	–16	+26	=1573	58%	0
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1525	–9	–2	=1514	39%	6
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1565	–1	+26	=1590	61%	2
5/24Monday, May 241:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1548	–14	+0	=1534	49%	14
5/24Monday, May 241:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1527	–8	+24	=1543	51%	8
5/23Sunday, May 231:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Wacha	1546	–19	+0	=1527	41%	6
5/23Sunday, May 231:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1529	+40	+24	=1593	59%	4
5/22Saturday, May 227:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1544	–15	+0	=1529	46%	3
5/22Saturday, May 227:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1530	+3	+24	=1557	54%	1
5/21Friday, May 217:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1543	+25	–2	=1566	52%	9
5/21Friday, May 217:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1532	–3	+24	=1553	48%	7
5/20Thursday, May 207:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1515	–6	+0	=1509	44%	8
5/20Thursday, May 207:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1533	–7	+24	=1550	56%	7
5/19Wednesday, May 197:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1513	–8	+0	=1505	44%	7
5/19Wednesday, May 197:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1535	–11	+24	=1548	56%	3
5/18Tuesday, May 187:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1515	+14	+0	=1529	41%	0
5/18Tuesday, May 187:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1533	+34	+26	=1593	59%	8
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1507	–16	+0	=1491	40%	8
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1532	+4	+24	=1560	60%	10
5/15Saturday, May 157:37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1509	+24	+0	=1533	48%	0
5/15Saturday, May 157:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1530	–11	+24	=1543	52%	4
5/14Friday, May 147:37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1507	–18	–2	=1487	42%	5
5/14Friday, May 147:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1532	–10	+21	=1543	58%	1
5/13Thursday, May 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1530	–10	+0	=1520	45%	8
5/13Thursday, May 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1524	+8	+24	=1556	55%	4
5/12Wednesday, May 127:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1529	+35	+0	=1564	53%	4
5/12Wednesday, May 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1525	–8	+24	=1541	47%	1
5/11Tuesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1527	+6	–1	=1532	51%	5
5/11Tuesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1527	–29	+26	=1524	49%	3
5/9Sunday, May 92:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Pearson	1529	–17	+0	=1512	40%	4
5/9Sunday, May 92:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1549	+7	+24	=1580	60%	7
5/8Saturday, May 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1526	–9	+0	=1517	40%	8
5/8Saturday, May 87:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1551	+10	+24	=1585	60%	4
5/7Friday, May 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1528	–8	–4	=1516	42%	4
5/7Friday, May 78:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1549	+4	+21	=1574	58%	10
5/6Thursday, May 63:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1526	+36	+0	=1562	54%	10
5/6Thursday, May 63:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fiers	1515	–7	+24	=1532	46%	4
5/5Wednesday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1523	+4	+0	=1527	46%	9
5/5Wednesday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1517	+17	+24	=1558	54%	4
5/4Tuesday, May 49:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1525	–8	+0	=1517	47%	1
5/4Tuesday, May 49:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1516	–3	+24	=1537	53%	4
5/3Monday, May 39:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1526	–8	–4	=1514	47%	4
5/3Monday, May 39:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1515	–6	+24	=1533	53%	5
5/2Sunday, May 21:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1525	+20	+0	=1545	51%	2
5/2Sunday, May 21:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1524	–11	+24	=1537	49%	7
5/1Saturday, May 17:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1527	+20	+0	=1547	51%	5
5/1Saturday, May 17:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bergen	1523	–6	+24	=1541	49%	6
4/30Friday, April 307:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1529	–20	–3	=1506	44%	5
4/30Friday, April 307:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1520	+0	+26	=1546	56%	13
4/28Wednesday, April 287:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1511	–25	+0	=1486	42%	8
4/28Wednesday, April 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1523	–3	+24	=1544	58%	2
4/27Tuesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1513	+38	+0	=1551	52%	5
4/27Tuesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1521	–5	+23	=1539	48%	9
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1520	+35	+0	=1555	53%	1
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Patino	1530	–17	+24	=1537	47%	0
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1521	–1	+0	=1520	47%	3
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Honeywell Jr.	1529	–12	+24	=1541	53%	5
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1520	–3	–1	=1516	41%	5
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1530	+27	+23	=1580	59%	3
4/21Wednesday, April 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1518	–6	+0	=1512	48%	6
4/21Wednesday, April 217:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1515	–13	+24	=1526	52%	3
4/20Tuesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1519	+38	–1	=1556	49%	2
4/20Tuesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1514	+22	+24	=1560	51%	4
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1521	–2	+0	=1519	53%	0
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1474	+3	+24	=1501	47%	2
4/17Saturday, April 176:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Milone	1522	–23	+0	=1499	54%	2
4/17Saturday, April 176:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Santana	1473	–22	+24	=1475	46%	3
4/17Saturday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1520	–6	+2	=1516	50%	5
4/17Saturday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1474	+14	+26	=1514	50%	1
4/15Thursday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1521	–3	–3	=1515	55%	5
4/15Thursday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1473	–16	+24	=1481	45%	7
4/14Wednesday, April 141:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1568	–8	+0	=1560	51%	4
4/14Wednesday, April 141:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1520	+7	+24	=1551	49%	5
4/13Tuesday, April 137:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1570	+0	+0	=1570	49%	3
4/13Tuesday, April 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1518	+35	+24	=1577	51%	7
4/12Monday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1569	+49	–3	=1615	60%	3
4/12Monday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1519	–2	+26	=1543	40%	1
4/10Saturday, April 107:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Quintana	1515	–11	+0	=1504	46%	1
4/10Saturday, April 107:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1516	–8	+24	=1532	54%	15
4/9Friday, April 97:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1512	+2	+0	=1514	45%	7
4/9Friday, April 97:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Phelps	1518	+6	+24	=1548	55%	1
4/8Thursday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1510	+8	–2	=1516	48%	7
4/8Thursday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1520	–8	+21	=1533	52%	5
4/7Wednesday, April 72:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1521	+35	+0	=1556	61%	1
4/7Wednesday, April 72:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1458	–6	+24	=1476	39%	2
4/6Tuesday, April 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1523	–14	+0	=1509	53%	4
4/6Tuesday, April 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1457	+6	+24	=1487	47%	7
4/5Monday, April 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1521	–15	–3	=1503	52%	6
4/5Monday, April 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Foltynewicz	1458	+10	+22	=1490	48%	2
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1519	+6	+0	=1525	43%	3
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1572	–21	+24	=1575	57%	1
4/3Saturday, April 31:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1520	–5	+2	=1517	39%	3
4/3Saturday, April 31:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1571	–3	+26	=1594	61%	5
4/1Thursday, April 11:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1519	+35	–2	=1552	38%	3
4/1Thursday, April 11:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1572	+44	+24	=1640	62%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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