Blue Jays | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Blue Jays have a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1523, the same as last week.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Yankees Yankees16-14	1.5	79%	55%
Rays Rays16-15	2.0	47%	19%
Blue Jays Blue Jays14-14	2.5	40%	15%
Red Sox Red Sox18-13	—	30%	10%
Orioles Orioles15-16	3.0	2%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/5Wednesday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1523	+4	+0	=1527	46%
5/5Wednesday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1517	+17	+24	=1558	54%
5/6Thursday, May 63:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1523	+36	+0	=1559	53%
5/6Thursday, May 63:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fiers	1517	–6	+24	=1535	47%
5/7Friday, May 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1523	–8	–4	=1511	41%
5/7Friday, May 78:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1547	+4	+21	=1572	59%
5/8Saturday, May 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1523	–10	+0	=1513	40%
5/8Saturday, May 87:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1547	+10	+24	=1581	60%
5/9Sunday, May 92:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	42%
5/9Sunday, May 92:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1547	+7	+24	=1578	58%
5/11Tuesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1523	+4	–1	=1526	47%
5/11Tuesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1527	–8	+26	=1545	53%
5/12Wednesday, May 127:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1523	+36	+0	=1559	55%
5/12Wednesday, May 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1527	–26	+24	=1525	45%
5/13Thursday, May 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1523	–8	+0	=1515	42%
5/13Thursday, May 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1527	+18	+24	=1569	58%
5/14Friday, May 146:37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1502	–19	–2	=1481	42%
5/14Friday, May 146:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1523	–10	+21	=1534	58%
5/15Saturday, May 153:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1502	+32	+0	=1534	48%
5/15Saturday, May 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	52%
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	44%
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
5/18Tuesday, May 186:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
5/18Tuesday, May 186:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+26	=1550	56%
5/19Wednesday, May 196:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
5/19Wednesday, May 196:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
5/20Thursday, May 206:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
5/20Thursday, May 206:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
5/21Friday, May 216:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	–2	=1529	47%
5/21Friday, May 216:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
5/22Saturday, May 223:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
5/22Saturday, May 223:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
5/23Sunday, May 231:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
5/23Sunday, May 231:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
5/24Monday, May 243:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
5/24Monday, May 243:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	40%
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+26	=1592	60%
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	41%
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	41%
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	47%
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	+23	=1540	53%
5/29Saturday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	48%
5/29Saturday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	52%
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	48%
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	52%
6/1Tuesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	39%
6/1Tuesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	61%
6/2Wednesday, June 27:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	39%
6/2Wednesday, June 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	61%
6/4Friday, June 47:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1547	+1	–3	=1545	49%
6/4Friday, June 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+26	=1550	51%
6/5Saturday, June 53:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
6/5Saturday, June 53:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	50%
6/6Sunday, June 61:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
6/6Sunday, June 61:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	50%
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	+26	=1550	54%
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	47%
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	53%
6/10Thursday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	47%
6/10Thursday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	53%
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–3	=1521	48%
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	52%
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	49%
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	51%
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	49%
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	51%
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	49%
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	51%
6/15Tuesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+0	=1566	53%
6/15Tuesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+22	=1546	47%
6/16Wednesday, June 167:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+0	=1566	53%
6/16Wednesday, June 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	47%
6/17Thursday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+0	=1566	53%
6/17Thursday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	47%
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	58%
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+22	=1469	42%
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	42%
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	42%
6/22Tuesday, June 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–1	=1523	54%
6/22Tuesday, June 227:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1474	+0	+23	=1497	46%
6/23Wednesday, June 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	54%
6/23Wednesday, June 237:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	46%
6/24Thursday, June 247:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	–2	=1445	36%
6/24Thursday, June 247:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+21	=1545	64%
6/25Friday, June 257:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
6/25Friday, June 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%
6/26Saturday, June 263:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
6/26Saturday, June 263:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%
6/27Sunday, June 271:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
6/27Sunday, June 271:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1476	–1	+0	=1475	39%
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+26	=1550	61%
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1476	–1	+0	=1475	40%
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	60%
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1476	–1	+0	=1475	40%
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	60%
7/2Friday, July 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
7/2Friday, July 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
7/3Saturday, July 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
7/3Saturday, July 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
7/4Sunday, July 41:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
7/4Sunday, July 41:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+22	=1469	42%
7/7Wednesday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
7/7Wednesday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	42%
7/8Thursday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
7/8Thursday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	42%
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–3	=1521	45%
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+26	=1557	55%
7/10Saturday, July 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
7/10Saturday, July 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	54%
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	54%
7/16Friday, July 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1463	+0	+4	=1467	38%
7/16Friday, July 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+28	=1552	62%
7/17Saturday, July 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1463	+0	+0	=1463	38%
7/17Saturday, July 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	62%
7/18Sunday, July 181:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1463	+0	+0	=1463	38%
7/18Sunday, July 181:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	62%
7/19Monday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	–2	=1508	44%
7/19Monday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
7/20Tuesday, July 207:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
7/20Tuesday, July 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
7/21Wednesday, July 217:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
7/21Wednesday, July 217:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1532	–1	+23	=1554	54%
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1532	–1	+24	=1555	54%
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1532	–1	+24	=1555	54%
7/26Monday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	48%
7/26Monday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+26	=1536	52%
7/27Tuesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	49%
7/27Tuesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	51%
7/28Wednesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	49%
7/28Wednesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	51%
7/29Thursday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	49%
7/29Thursday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+24	=1534	51%
7/30Friday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1473	+0	–3	=1470	39%
7/30Friday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+22	=1546	61%
7/31Saturday, July 313:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1473	+0	+0	=1473	39%
7/31Saturday, July 313:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	61%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1473	+0	+0	=1473	39%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	61%
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	–2	=1515	45%
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	55%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	46%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	46%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	46%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	–2	=1508	44%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 73:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 73:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	44%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	56%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	49%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1501	+1	+25	=1527	51%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 119:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	50%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 119:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1501	+1	+24	=1526	50%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	50%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1501	+1	+24	=1526	50%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–3	=1521	53%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1476	–1	+24	=1499	47%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	54%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1476	–1	+24	=1499	46%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	54%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1476	–1	+24	=1499	46%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	48%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1514	–1	+26	=1539	52%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	48%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1514	–1	+24	=1537	52%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+0	–2	=1433	34%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	66%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 213:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+0	+0	=1435	34%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 213:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	66%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+0	+0	=1435	34%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	66%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	–3	=1521	46%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	47%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	47%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 263:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1524	+0	+0	=1524	47%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 263:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	59%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+0	+24	=1459	41%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	59%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+0	+24	=1459	41%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	59%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+0	+24	=1459	41%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	–2	=1445	36%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+22	=1546	64%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1517	+1	–2	=1516	45%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+26	=1550	55%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 43:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1517	+1	+0	=1518	46%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 43:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1517	+1	+0	=1518	46%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	40%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	60%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	41%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	41%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	41%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	57%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	43%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	42%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	58%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+24	=1471	42%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	–2	=1529	47%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+22	=1546	53%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	47%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	53%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	–1	=1522	46%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+26	=1550	54%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	46%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	46%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	54%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–3	=1521	45%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	55%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	54%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 223:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	46%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 223:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	54%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	–3	=1521	47%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	+22	=1545	53%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	47%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	53%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	47%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	53%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	47%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	53%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+3	=1569	53%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+23	=1547	47%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+0	=1566	53%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	47%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1566	+0	+0	=1566	53%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	47%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	–2	=1445	35%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	65%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1447	+0	+0	=1447	36%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	64%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/4Tuesday, May 49:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1525	–8	+0	=1517	47%	1
5/4Tuesday, May 49:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1516	–3	+24	=1537	53%	4
5/3Monday, May 39:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1526	–8	–4	=1514	47%	4
5/3Monday, May 39:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1515	–6	+24	=1533	53%	5
5/2Sunday, May 21:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1525	+20	+0	=1545	51%	2
5/2Sunday, May 21:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1524	–11	+24	=1537	49%	7
5/1Saturday, May 17:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1527	+20	+0	=1547	51%	5
5/1Saturday, May 17:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bergen	1523	–6	+24	=1541	49%	6
4/30Friday, April 307:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1529	–20	–3	=1506	44%	5
4/30Friday, April 307:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1520	+0	+26	=1546	56%	13
4/28Wednesday, April 287:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1511	–25	+0	=1486	42%	8
4/28Wednesday, April 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1523	–3	+24	=1544	58%	2
4/27Tuesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1513	+38	+0	=1551	52%	5
4/27Tuesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1521	–5	+23	=1539	48%	9
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1520	+35	+0	=1555	53%	1
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Patino	1530	–17	+24	=1537	47%	0
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1521	–1	+0	=1520	47%	3
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Honeywell Jr.	1529	–12	+24	=1541	53%	5
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1520	–3	–1	=1516	41%	5
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1530	+27	+23	=1580	59%	3
4/21Wednesday, April 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Thornton	1518	–6	+0	=1512	48%	6
4/21Wednesday, April 217:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1515	–13	+24	=1526	52%	3
4/20Tuesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1519	+38	–1	=1556	49%	2
4/20Tuesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1514	+22	+24	=1560	51%	4
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1521	–2	+0	=1519	53%	0
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1474	+3	+24	=1501	47%	2
4/17Saturday, April 176:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Milone	1522	–23	+0	=1499	54%	2
4/17Saturday, April 176:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Santana	1473	–22	+24	=1475	46%	3
4/17Saturday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1520	–6	+2	=1516	50%	5
4/17Saturday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1474	+14	+26	=1514	50%	1
4/15Thursday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kay	1521	–3	–3	=1515	55%	5
4/15Thursday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1473	–16	+24	=1481	45%	7
4/14Wednesday, April 141:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1568	–8	+0	=1560	51%	4
4/14Wednesday, April 141:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1520	+7	+24	=1551	49%	5
4/13Tuesday, April 137:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1570	+0	+0	=1570	49%	3
4/13Tuesday, April 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1518	+35	+24	=1577	51%	7
4/12Monday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1569	+49	–3	=1615	60%	3
4/12Monday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1519	–2	+26	=1543	40%	1
4/10Saturday, April 107:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Quintana	1515	–11	+0	=1504	46%	1
4/10Saturday, April 107:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1516	–8	+24	=1532	54%	15
4/9Friday, April 97:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1512	+2	+0	=1514	45%	7
4/9Friday, April 97:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Phelps	1518	+6	+24	=1548	55%	1
4/8Thursday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1510	+8	–2	=1516	48%	7
4/8Thursday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1520	–8	+21	=1533	52%	5
4/7Wednesday, April 72:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1521	+35	+0	=1556	61%	1
4/7Wednesday, April 72:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1458	–6	+24	=1476	39%	2
4/6Tuesday, April 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1523	–14	+0	=1509	53%	4
4/6Tuesday, April 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1457	+6	+24	=1487	47%	7
4/5Monday, April 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1521	–15	–3	=1503	52%	6
4/5Monday, April 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Foltynewicz	1458	+10	+22	=1490	48%	2
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1519	+6	+0	=1525	43%	3
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1572	–21	+24	=1575	57%	1
4/3Saturday, April 31:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1520	–5	+2	=1517	39%	3
4/3Saturday, April 31:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1571	–3	+26	=1594	61%	5
4/1Thursday, April 11:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1519	+35	–2	=1552	38%	3
4/1Thursday, April 11:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1572	+44	+24	=1640	62%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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