Blue Jays | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Blue Jays have a 31% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1518, down 5 points from last week.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Yankees Yankees5-5	1.5	81%	60%
Rays Rays5-5	1.5	46%	19%
Blue Jays Blue Jays4-6	2.5	31%	11%
Red Sox Red Sox6-3	—	27%	10%
Orioles Orioles4-5	2.0	1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
4/13Tuesday, April 137:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1570	+0	+0	=1570	49%
4/13Tuesday, April 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1518	+35	+24	=1577	51%
4/14Wednesday, April 143:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1570	–9	+0	=1561	54%
4/14Wednesday, April 143:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1518	–9	+24	=1533	46%
4/15Thursday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	55%
4/15Thursday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1469	–15	+24	=1478	45%
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1518	–6	+0	=1512	50%
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1469	+15	+24	=1508	50%
4/17Saturday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1518	–1	+0	=1517	53%
4/17Saturday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1469	+4	+24	=1497	47%
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1518	+35	+0	=1553	58%
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1469	+5	+24	=1498	42%
4/20Tuesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1518	–9	–1	=1508	43%
4/20Tuesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1508	+22	+24	=1554	57%
4/21Wednesday, April 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	50%
4/21Wednesday, April 217:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1508	–13	+24	=1519	50%
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1518	–6	–1	=1511	41%
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1528	+25	+23	=1576	59%
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
4/27Tuesday, April 276:37 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1517	+0	+0	=1517	46%
4/27Tuesday, April 276:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+23	=1542	54%
4/28Wednesday, April 286:37 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1517	+0	+0	=1517	46%
4/28Wednesday, April 286:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
4/30Friday, April 306:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1532	+0	–3	=1529	48%
4/30Friday, April 306:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	52%
5/1Saturday, May 13:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1532	+0	+0	=1532	48%
5/1Saturday, May 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
5/2Sunday, May 21:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1532	+0	+0	=1532	48%
5/2Sunday, May 21:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
5/3Monday, May 39:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–4	=1515	48%
5/3Monday, May 39:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	+24	=1531	52%
5/4Tuesday, May 49:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
5/4Tuesday, May 49:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	+24	=1531	52%
5/5Wednesday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
5/5Wednesday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	+24	=1531	52%
5/6Thursday, May 63:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
5/6Thursday, May 63:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	+24	=1531	52%
5/7Friday, May 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–4	=1515	41%
5/7Friday, May 78:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+0	+21	=1575	59%
5/8Saturday, May 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	42%
5/8Saturday, May 87:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+0	+24	=1578	58%
5/9Sunday, May 92:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	42%
5/9Sunday, May 92:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+0	+24	=1578	58%
5/11Tuesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–1	=1518	44%
5/11Tuesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1532	+0	+26	=1558	56%
5/12Wednesday, May 127:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
5/12Wednesday, May 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1532	+0	+24	=1556	55%
5/13Thursday, May 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
5/13Thursday, May 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1532	+0	+24	=1556	55%
5/14Friday, May 146:37 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1510	+0	–2	=1508	45%
5/14Friday, May 146:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+21	=1540	55%
5/15Saturday, May 153:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	45%
5/15Saturday, May 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1510	+0	+0	=1510	45%
5/16Sunday, May 161:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
5/18Tuesday, May 186:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
5/18Tuesday, May 186:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	55%
5/19Wednesday, May 196:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
5/19Wednesday, May 196:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
5/20Thursday, May 206:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
5/20Thursday, May 206:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
5/21Friday, May 216:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	–2	=1526	48%
5/21Friday, May 216:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
5/22Saturday, May 223:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
5/22Saturday, May 223:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
5/23Sunday, May 231:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
5/23Sunday, May 231:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
5/24Monday, May 243:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
5/24Monday, May 243:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	39%
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+26	=1596	61%
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	39%
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+24	=1594	61%
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	39%
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+24	=1594	61%
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	47%
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	+23	=1537	53%
5/29Saturday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
5/29Saturday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	+24	=1538	53%
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	+24	=1538	53%
6/1Tuesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1463	+0	+0	=1463	39%
6/1Tuesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
6/2Wednesday, June 27:07 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1463	+0	+0	=1463	39%
6/2Wednesday, June 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
6/4Friday, June 47:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+0	–3	=1551	51%
6/4Friday, June 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	49%
6/5Saturday, June 53:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+0	+0	=1554	52%
6/5Saturday, June 53:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	48%
6/6Sunday, June 61:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+0	+0	=1554	52%
6/6Sunday, June 61:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	48%
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	46%
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	+26	=1544	54%
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	+24	=1542	53%
6/10Thursday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
6/10Thursday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	+24	=1542	53%
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	48%
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
6/15Tuesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+0	=1570	54%
6/15Tuesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+22	=1541	46%
6/16Wednesday, June 167:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+0	=1570	54%
6/16Wednesday, June 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	46%
6/17Thursday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+0	=1570	54%
6/17Thursday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	46%
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	58%
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+22	=1461	42%
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
6/22Tuesday, June 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–1	=1518	55%
6/22Tuesday, June 227:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1463	+0	+23	=1486	45%
6/23Wednesday, June 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	55%
6/23Wednesday, June 237:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1463	+0	+24	=1487	45%
6/24Thursday, June 247:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	–2	=1437	36%
6/24Thursday, June 247:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+21	=1540	64%
6/25Friday, June 257:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
6/25Friday, June 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
6/26Saturday, June 263:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
6/26Saturday, June 263:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
6/27Sunday, June 271:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
6/27Sunday, June 271:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1469	+0	+0	=1469	39%
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	61%
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1469	+0	+0	=1469	40%
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1469	+0	+0	=1469	40%
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
7/2Friday, July 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
7/2Friday, July 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
7/3Saturday, July 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
7/3Saturday, July 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
7/4Sunday, July 41:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
7/4Sunday, July 41:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+22	=1461	42%
7/7Wednesday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
7/7Wednesday, July 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
7/8Thursday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
7/8Thursday, July 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	44%
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+26	=1554	56%
7/10Saturday, July 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
7/10Saturday, July 101:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
7/16Friday, July 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1456	+0	+4	=1460	38%
7/16Friday, July 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+28	=1547	62%
7/17Saturday, July 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1456	+0	+0	=1456	38%
7/17Saturday, July 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	62%
7/18Sunday, July 181:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1456	+0	+0	=1456	38%
7/18Sunday, July 181:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	62%
7/19Monday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	–2	=1506	45%
7/19Monday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
7/20Tuesday, July 207:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
7/20Tuesday, July 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
7/21Wednesday, July 217:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
7/21Wednesday, July 217:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	44%
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1536	+0	+23	=1559	56%
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	44%
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1536	+0	+24	=1560	56%
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	44%
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1536	+0	+24	=1560	56%
7/26Monday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	48%
7/26Monday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+26	=1534	52%
7/27Tuesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
7/27Tuesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
7/28Wednesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
7/28Wednesday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
7/29Thursday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	48%
7/29Thursday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+24	=1532	52%
7/30Friday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1469	+0	–3	=1466	40%
7/30Friday, July 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+22	=1541	60%
7/31Saturday, July 313:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1469	+0	+0	=1469	40%
7/31Saturday, July 313:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1469	+0	+0	=1469	40%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	–2	=1512	46%
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	+0	=1514	46%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	+0	=1514	46%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1514	+0	+0	=1514	46%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	–2	=1506	45%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 73:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 73:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1508	+0	+0	=1508	45%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	47%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1513	+0	+25	=1538	53%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 119:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 119:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1513	+0	+24	=1537	53%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1513	+0	+24	=1537	53%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	53%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1469	+0	+24	=1493	47%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	54%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1469	+0	+24	=1493	46%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	54%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1469	+0	+24	=1493	46%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	46%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1517	+0	+26	=1543	54%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	47%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1517	+0	+24	=1541	53%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1445	+0	–2	=1443	36%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	64%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 213:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1445	+0	+0	=1445	36%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 213:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	64%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1445	+0	+0	=1445	36%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	64%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	–3	=1515	46%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	+0	=1518	46%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	+0	=1518	46%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 263:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1518	+0	+0	=1518	46%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 263:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	54%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	57%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1445	+0	+24	=1469	43%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	57%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1445	+0	+24	=1469	43%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	57%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1445	+0	+24	=1469	43%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	–2	=1437	35%
8/30Monday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+22	=1541	65%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	–2	=1505	44%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	56%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 43:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	+0	=1507	45%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 43:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1507	+0	+0	=1507	45%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	55%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	39%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+24	=1594	61%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	39%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+24	=1594	61%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	39%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+24	=1594	61%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	39%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+24	=1594	61%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	58%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	58%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+24	=1463	42%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	–2	=1526	48%
9/13Monday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+22	=1541	52%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+0	=1528	48%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	52%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	–1	=1540	49%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	51%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	+0	=1541	50%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	50%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	+0	=1541	50%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	50%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	45%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 223:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	45%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 223:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1528	+0	+24	=1552	55%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	43%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	+22	=1563	57%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	43%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	+24	=1565	57%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	43%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	+24	=1565	57%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	43%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1541	+0	+24	=1565	57%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+3	=1573	54%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+23	=1542	46%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+0	=1570	54%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	46%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1570	+0	+0	=1570	54%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	46%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	–2	=1437	35%
10/1Friday, Oct. 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1439	+0	+0	=1439	35%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	65%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
4/12Monday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1569	+49	–3	=1615	60%	3
4/12Monday, April 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1519	–2	+26	=1543	40%	1
4/10Saturday, April 107:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Quintana	1515	–11	+0	=1504	46%	1
4/10Saturday, April 107:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1516	–8	+24	=1532	54%	15
4/9Friday, April 97:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1512	+2	+0	=1514	45%	7
4/9Friday, April 97:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Phelps	1518	+6	+24	=1548	55%	1
4/8Thursday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1510	+8	–2	=1516	48%	7
4/8Thursday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1520	–8	+21	=1533	52%	5
4/7Wednesday, April 72:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1521	+35	+0	=1556	61%	1
4/7Wednesday, April 72:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1458	–6	+24	=1476	39%	2
4/6Tuesday, April 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Roark	1523	–14	+0	=1509	53%	4
4/6Tuesday, April 68:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1457	+6	+24	=1487	47%	7
4/5Monday, April 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1521	–15	–3	=1503	52%	6
4/5Monday, April 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Foltynewicz	1458	+10	+22	=1490	48%	2
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Zeuch	1519	+6	+0	=1525	43%	3
4/4Sunday, April 41:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1572	–21	+24	=1575	57%	1
4/3Saturday, April 31:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1520	–5	+2	=1517	39%	3
4/3Saturday, April 31:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Kluber	1571	–3	+26	=1594	61%	5
4/1Thursday, April 11:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1519	+35	–2	=1552	38%	3
4/1Thursday, April 11:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1572	+44	+24	=1640	62%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL East standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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Comments