Brewers | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Brewers have a 93% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1539, up 4 points from last week.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers62-43	—	93%	89%
Reds Reds55-50	7.0	23%	8%
Cardinals Cardinals52-52	9.5	5%	2%
Cubs Cubs51-55	11.5	2%	<1%
Pirates Pirates40-64	21.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1539	–23	+0	=1516	42%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1534	+17	+24	=1575	58%
8/2Monday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1432	–6	–2	=1424	35%
8/2Monday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1539	–31	+21	=1529	65%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1432	+7	+0	=1439	31%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1539	+15	+24	=1578	69%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 42:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1432	–10	+0	=1422	28%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1539	+24	+24	=1587	72%
8/6Friday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1531	–3	–4	=1524	40%
8/6Friday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1539	+33	+26	=1598	60%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1531	+9	+0	=1540	50%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1539	–23	+24	=1540	50%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1531	–11	+0	=1520	48%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1539	–31	+24	=1532	52%
8/9Monday, Aug. 98:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1539	+15	–1	=1553	54%
8/9Monday, Aug. 98:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1491	+7	+24	=1522	46%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 108:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1539	+24	+0	=1563	61%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 108:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1491	–28	+24	=1487	39%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 118:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1539	+33	+0	=1572	55%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 118:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1491	+25	+24	=1540	45%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 122:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 122:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+24	=1517	46%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–2	=1539	62%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	38%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	62%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	38%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	62%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	38%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–1	=1540	54%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	46%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 187:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	46%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 197:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 197:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	46%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	–1	=1497	41%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+22	=1563	59%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 214:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+0	=1498	40%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 214:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	60%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+0	=1498	40%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	60%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	41%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+26	=1567	59%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	42%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	58%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	42%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	58%
8/27Friday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–2	=1539	54%
8/27Friday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+21	=1510	46%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
8/30Monday, Aug. 309:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–4	=1537	48%
8/30Monday, Aug. 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1531	+1	+20	=1552	52%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 319:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	48%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 319:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	52%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 19:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	48%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 19:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	52%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 23:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	48%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 23:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	52%
9/3Friday, Sept. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	40%
9/3Friday, Sept. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+20	=1561	60%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	39%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 52:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	39%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 52:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	–3	=1498	40%
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	60%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	41%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	59%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+0	=1501	41%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	59%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	53%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	53%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	53%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+1	=1542	58%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+26	=1488	42%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	58%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+24	=1486	42%
9/17Friday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	–3	=1490	39%
9/17Friday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	40%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	60%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 192:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	40%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 192:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	60%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	–2	=1487	39%
9/20Monday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	39%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	39%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 232:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	39%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	61%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1530	–1	–1	=1528	45%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	55%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1530	–1	+0	=1529	45%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	55%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1530	–1	+0	=1529	45%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+24	=1565	55%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	46%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	46%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 301:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 301:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	46%
10/1Friday, Oct. 110:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–4	=1537	39%
10/1Friday, Oct. 110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+24	=1615	61%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 29:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	40%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 29:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+24	=1615	60%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	40%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+24	=1615	60%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
7/31Saturday, July 317:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1542	+36	+0	=1578	54%	1
7/31Saturday, July 317:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Muller	1531	–7	+24	=1548	46%	8
7/30Friday, July 307:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1540	+30	–2	=1568	55%	9
7/30Friday, July 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Toussaint	1533	–22	+21	=1532	45%	5
7/29Thursday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1537	+11	+0	=1548	62%	12
7/29Thursday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1430	+8	+24	=1462	38%	0
7/28Wednesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1536	–30	+0	=1506	57%	7
7/28Wednesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1432	+2	+24	=1458	43%	3
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1533	–27	+0	=1506	57%	9
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1434	+1	+22	=1457	43%	0
7/25Sunday, July 257 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1539	+25	+0	=1564	46%	3
7/25Sunday, July 257 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1535	+36	+24	=1595	54%	1
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1541	+18	+0	=1559	46%	1
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1533	+31	+24	=1588	54%	6
7/23Friday, July 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1544	+11	+1	=1556	48%	1
7/23Friday, July 238:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1530	+12	+26	=1568	52%	7
7/21Wednesday, July 212:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1447	+0	+0	=1447	39%	6
7/21Wednesday, July 212:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1532	–32	+24	=1524	61%	3
7/20Tuesday, July 204:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1445	+9	+0	=1454	39%	5
7/20Tuesday, July 204:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1535	–25	+24	=1534	61%	2
7/18Sunday, July 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1532	+27	+0	=1559	52%	8
7/18Sunday, July 181:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1505	+19	+24	=1548	48%	0
7/17Saturday, July 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1530	+39	+0	=1569	55%	7
7/17Saturday, July 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1506	+7	+24	=1537	45%	4
7/16Friday, July 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1528	–24	+5	=1509	45%	11
7/16Friday, July 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1509	+5	+29	=1543	55%	6
7/11Sunday, July 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1507	+7	+0	=1514	39%	3
7/11Sunday, July 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1530	+40	+24	=1594	61%	1
7/10Saturday, July 107:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1505	–24	+0	=1481	38%	4
7/10Saturday, July 107:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1531	+14	+24	=1569	62%	3
7/9Friday, July 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1504	+1	+0	=1505	47%	2
7/9Friday, July 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1533	–33	+24	=1524	53%	0
7/8Thursday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	+6	–2	=1509	47%	3
7/8Thursday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1531	–24	+21	=1528	53%	5
7/7Wednesday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1529	–26	+0	=1503	48%	5
7/7Wednesday, July 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stock	1539	–45	+24	=1518	52%	0
7/7Wednesday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1530	+27	+2	=1559	41%	3
7/7Wednesday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	deGrom	1538	+59	+26	=1623	59%	4
7/5Monday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1531	+42	–2	=1571	57%	2
7/5Monday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1536	–34	+23	=1525	43%	4
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1533	+16	+0	=1549	63%	0
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1423	+11	+24	=1458	37%	2
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1531	–35	+0	=1496	57%	11
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1426	–2	+24	=1448	43%	2
7/2Friday, July 27:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1529	–26	+0	=1503	55%	7
7/2Friday, July 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1428	+17	+24	=1469	45%	2
7/1Thursday, July 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1527	+27	–2	=1552	68%	7
7/1Thursday, July 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1429	–27	+21	=1423	32%	2
6/30Wednesday, June 302:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1510	–18	+0	=1492	47%	7
6/30Wednesday, June 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1525	–32	+24	=1517	53%	15
6/29Tuesday, June 298:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Davies	1511	+12	+0	=1523	41%	1
6/29Tuesday, June 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1524	+41	+24	=1589	59%	2
6/28Monday, June 288:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1514	+25	–4	=1535	47%	4
6/28Monday, June 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1521	+15	+24	=1560	53%	14
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1444	–26	+0	=1418	38%	0
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1519	–41	+24	=1502	62%	5
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1445	–3	+0	=1442	39%	4
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1517	–24	+24	=1517	61%	10
6/25Friday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1446	+3	–2	=1447	34%	4
6/25Friday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1517	+25	+22	=1564	66%	5
6/23Wednesday, June 233:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1516	+41	+0	=1557	61%	3
6/23Wednesday, June 233:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Smith	1449	+3	+24	=1476	39%	2
6/22Tuesday, June 229:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1514	+13	+0	=1527	52%	5
6/22Tuesday, June 229:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1452	+36	+24	=1512	48%	0
6/21Monday, June 219:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1516	–20	–3	=1493	51%	1
6/21Monday, June 219:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1450	+12	+24	=1486	49%	5
6/20Sunday, June 203:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1515	–41	+0	=1474	54%	7
6/20Sunday, June 203:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gonzalez	1446	–23	+24	=1447	46%	6
6/19Saturday, June 199:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1514	–22	+0	=1492	51%	6
6/19Saturday, June 199:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1447	+15	+24	=1486	49%	5
6/18Friday, June 188:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1515	+27	+0	=1542	61%	5
6/18Friday, June 188:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1446	–2	+24	=1468	39%	6
6/17Thursday, June 178:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1518	+45	–3	=1560	60%	3
6/17Thursday, June 178:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1443	+23	+24	=1490	40%	7
6/16Wednesday, June 162:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1501	+6	+0	=1507	44%	2
6/16Wednesday, June 162:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1519	+8	+24	=1551	56%	1
6/15Tuesday, June 158:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%	2
6/15Tuesday, June 158:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1520	–28	+24	=1516	53%	1
6/14Monday, June 148:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1497	–10	–2	=1485	47%	10
6/14Monday, June 148:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1523	–41	+24	=1506	53%	2
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1428	–28	+0	=1400	33%	2
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1522	–21	+24	=1525	67%	5
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1429	–4	+0	=1425	29%	4
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1521	+33	+24	=1578	71%	7
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1430	–20	–2	=1408	26%	4
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1521	+47	+22	=1590	74%	7
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1519	+9	+0	=1528	52%	7
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1494	–7	+24	=1511	48%	2
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1520	–27	+0	=1493	49%	3
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1492	–14	+24	=1502	51%	7
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1518	–25	+0	=1493	44%	5
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1494	+19	+24	=1537	56%	1
6/6Sunday, June 62:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Smith	1466	–7	+0	=1459	35%	0
6/6Sunday, June 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1517	+28	+24	=1569	65%	2
6/5Saturday, June 54:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1466	+14	+0	=1480	35%	5
6/5Saturday, June 54:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1516	+50	+24	=1590	65%	7
6/4Friday, June 48:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Peacock	1468	–4	+0	=1464	39%	1
6/4Friday, June 48:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1515	+5	+24	=1544	61%	5
6/3Thursday, June 37:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Duplantier	1469	–12	–4	=1453	41%	4
6/3Thursday, June 37:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1514	–22	+26	=1518	59%	7
6/1Tuesday, June 17:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1447	+2	+0	=1449	42%	10
6/1Tuesday, June 17:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1516	–33	+24	=1507	58%	7
5/31Monday, May 312:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1448	–18	–2	=1428	31%	2
5/31Monday, May 312:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1515	+27	+21	=1563	69%	3
5/30Sunday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1513	+45	+0	=1558	48%	3
5/30Sunday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Scherzer	1508	+41	+24	=1573	52%	0
5/29Saturday, May 297:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1511	–22	+0	=1489	47%	6
5/29Saturday, May 297:15 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Lester	1510	–25	+24	=1509	53%	2
5/29Saturday, May 292:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1510	+0	–1	=1509	48%	4
5/29Saturday, May 292:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1512	–13	+26	=1525	52%	1
5/27Thursday, May 271:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1572	–23	+0	=1549	56%	5
5/27Thursday, May 271:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1508	–28	+24	=1504	44%	6
5/26Wednesday, May 267:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1571	–25	+0	=1546	57%	2
5/26Wednesday, May 267:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1509	–35	+24	=1498	43%	1
5/25Tuesday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1569	+7	+0	=1576	51%	7
5/25Tuesday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1512	+30	+24	=1566	49%	1
5/24Monday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1570	–1	–4	=1565	49%	3
5/24Monday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1510	+44	+22	=1576	51%	5
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1508	+4	+0	=1512	50%	9
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1490	–1	+24	=1513	50%	4
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1507	–18	+0	=1489	43%	4
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1491	+23	+24	=1538	57%	3
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1509	–20	–1	=1488	49%	4
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Hoffman	1489	–18	+24	=1495	51%	9
5/19Wednesday, May 198:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1511	+29	+0	=1540	57%	4
5/19Wednesday, May 198:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1468	–2	+24	=1490	43%	6
5/18Tuesday, May 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1512	+42	+0	=1554	61%	0
5/18Tuesday, May 188:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1466	–13	+24	=1477	39%	2
5/16Sunday, May 162:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1525	+1	+0	=1526	49%	9
5/16Sunday, May 162:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1511	–1	+24	=1534	51%	10
5/15Saturday, May 157:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1524	+14	+0	=1538	52%	5
5/15Saturday, May 157:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1513	–14	+24	=1523	48%	1
5/14Friday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1522	–23	–3	=1496	47%	6
5/14Friday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1515	–18	+24	=1521	53%	3
5/13Thursday, May 131:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1513	+31	+0	=1544	46%	2
5/13Thursday, May 131:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1516	+28	+24	=1568	54%	0
5/12Wednesday, May 127:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gant	1514	–9	+0	=1505	40%	1
5/12Wednesday, May 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1515	+40	+24	=1579	60%	4
5/11Tuesday, May 117:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1512	+3	+0	=1515	47%	6
5/11Tuesday, May 117:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1518	–7	+23	=1534	53%	1
5/9Sunday, May 91:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1516	–12	+0	=1504	48%	2
5/9Sunday, May 91:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1475	+17	+24	=1516	52%	1
5/8Saturday, May 86:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1515	–17	+0	=1498	52%	6
5/8Saturday, May 86:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1477	–19	+24	=1482	48%	2
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1517	–10	–3	=1504	49%	1
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1475	+10	+24	=1509	51%	6
5/6Thursday, May 61:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1518	+39	+0	=1557	51%	0
5/6Thursday, May 61:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1502	+22	+24	=1548	49%	2
5/5Wednesday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1519	–5	+0	=1514	51%	4
5/5Wednesday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Anderson	1501	–14	+24	=1511	49%	5
5/4Tuesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1520	–28	+0	=1492	41%	5
5/4Tuesday, May 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1500	+30	+24	=1554	59%	6
5/3Monday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1521	–19	–3	=1499	50%	3
5/3Monday, May 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1499	–22	+24	=1501	50%	4
5/2Sunday, May 22:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1596	–16	+0	=1580	58%	16
5/2Sunday, May 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Bettinger	1524	–26	+24	=1522	42%	4
5/1Saturday, May 17:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1597	–25	+0	=1572	48%	5
5/1Saturday, May 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1523	+36	+24	=1583	52%	6
4/30Friday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Uceta	1599	–42	+0	=1557	53%	1
4/30Friday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1522	–12	+24	=1534	47%	3
4/29Thursday, April 297:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Bauer	1600	+24	–4	=1620	65%	1
4/29Thursday, April 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1520	–33	+24	=1511	35%	2
4/28Wednesday, April 281:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1470	+16	+0	=1486	48%	6
4/28Wednesday, April 281:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Godley	1522	–46	+24	=1500	52%	2
4/27Tuesday, April 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Castano	1470	–12	+0	=1458	41%	4
4/27Tuesday, April 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1521	–21	+24	=1524	59%	5
4/26Monday, April 267:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1466	+6	–4	=1468	34%	8
4/26Monday, April 267:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1526	+33	+23	=1582	66%	0
4/25Sunday, April 252:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1523	+34	+0	=1557	54%	6
4/25Sunday, April 252:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1504	+0	+24	=1528	46%	0
4/24Saturday, April 242:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1522	–13	+0	=1509	48%	4
4/24Saturday, April 242:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1505	–3	+24	=1526	52%	3
4/23Friday, April 232:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1526	–10	–2	=1514	45%	2
4/23Friday, April 232:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1501	+25	+24	=1550	55%	15
4/21Wednesday, April 214:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1524	–21	+0	=1503	38%	4
4/21Wednesday, April 214:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1556	+10	+24	=1590	62%	2
4/20Tuesday, April 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1521	+29	+0	=1550	50%	6
4/20Tuesday, April 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1558	–28	+24	=1554	50%	0
4/19Monday, April 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1520	+33	–4	=1549	44%	3
4/19Monday, April 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1560	+9	+24	=1593	56%	1
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1437	–7	+0	=1430	36%	6
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1521	–12	+24	=1533	64%	5
4/17Saturday, April 177:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1439	–2	+0	=1437	37%	1
4/17Saturday, April 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1519	–11	+24	=1532	63%	7
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1436	+7	–2	=1441	37%	6
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1522	–19	+26	=1529	63%	1
4/14Wednesday, April 141:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1499	–3	+0	=1496	40%	0
4/14Wednesday, April 141:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1520	+25	+24	=1569	60%	7
4/13Tuesday, April 137:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1498	+4	+0	=1502	39%	3
4/13Tuesday, April 137:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1522	+33	+24	=1579	61%	2
4/12Monday, April 127:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1499	–8	–2	=1489	44%	3
4/12Monday, April 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1520	–14	+22	=1528	56%	6
4/11Sunday, April 112:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1518	–9	+0	=1509	48%	9
4/11Sunday, April 112:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1505	–5	+24	=1524	52%	3
4/10Saturday, April 102:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1516	–16	+2	=1502	48%	9
4/10Saturday, April 102:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1507	–17	+26	=1516	52%	5
4/8Thursday, April 84:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1517	+20	–2	=1535	51%	1
4/8Thursday, April 84:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1506	+0	+21	=1527	49%	3
4/7Wednesday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1516	+30	+0	=1546	48%	4
4/7Wednesday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1505	+30	+24	=1559	52%	2
4/6Tuesday, April 67:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1513	–15	+0	=1498	46%	4
4/6Tuesday, April 67:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1508	–7	+24	=1525	54%	0
4/5Monday, April 57:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1515	–4	–1	=1510	51%	3
4/5Monday, April 57:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Williams	1506	–25	+24	=1505	49%	5
4/4Sunday, April 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1538	+0	+0	=1538	52%	8
4/4Sunday, April 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1517	–14	+24	=1527	48%	2
4/3Saturday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1537	+0	+2	=1539	47%	2
4/3Saturday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1519	+15	+26	=1560	53%	0
4/1Thursday, April 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1538	+17	–2	=1553	47%	5
4/1Thursday, April 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1518	+34	+24	=1576	53%	6

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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