Indians | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Indians have an 8% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1500, up 2 points from last week.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
White Sox White Sox61-44	—	95%	95%
Indians Indians51-50	8.0	8%	5%
Tigers Tigers50-57	12.0	<1%	<1%
Twins Twins44-61	17.0	<1%	<1%
Royals Royals45-58	15.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
8/1Sunday, Aug. 12:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1500	–6	+0	=1494	40%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 12:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+24	=1561	60%
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1500	–16	–2	=1482	36%
8/2Monday, Aug. 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ray	1535	+19	+24	=1578	64%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1500	+18	+0	=1518	46%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1535	–16	+24	=1543	54%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1500	–29	+0	=1471	35%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1535	+21	+24	=1580	65%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1500	–6	+0	=1494	43%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1535	–16	+24	=1543	57%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Manning	1464	–14	–1	=1449	40%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1500	–6	+22	=1516	60%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1464	–16	+0	=1448	40%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	60%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Peralta	1464	–5	+0	=1459	38%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1500	+18	+24	=1542	62%
8/9Monday, Aug. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1505	+16	–2	=1519	53%
8/9Monday, Aug. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1500	–29	+24	=1495	47%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1524	+11	–2	=1533	52%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1500	–6	+24	=1518	48%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1524	–1	+0	=1523	51%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1500	–6	+24	=1518	49%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1524	–3	+0	=1521	50%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	50%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–1	=1494	51%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+22	=1484	49%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 146:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	51%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 146:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+24	=1486	49%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	51%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+24	=1486	49%
8/16Monday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–3	=1492	47%
8/16Monday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 181:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1499	+3	–1	=1501	47%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+23	=1518	53%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1499	+3	+0	=1502	47%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 214:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	53%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 227 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1499	+3	+0	=1502	51%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 227 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	49%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1441	–4	–1	=1436	38%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+26	=1521	62%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1441	–4	+0	=1437	38%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	62%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1441	–4	+0	=1437	38%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	62%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	–3	=1527	51%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	49%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+0	=1530	51%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 284:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	49%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+0	=1530	51%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	49%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–1	=1494	53%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+22	=1475	47%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	53%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	47%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	53%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	47%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–3	=1492	42%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+21	=1551	58%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	42%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+24	=1554	58%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	42%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+24	=1554	58%
9/6Monday, Sept. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–3	=1486	46%
9/6Monday, Sept. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+21	=1516	54%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	54%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	54%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	54%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	53%
9/10Friday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	53%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	53%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 143:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–1	=1494	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 143:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+26	=1515	53%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–1	=1494	40%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+22	=1566	60%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 181:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	40%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 181:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+24	=1568	60%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	40%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+24	=1568	60%
9/20Monday, Sept. 205:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	–3	=1450	40%
9/20Monday, Sept. 205:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+22	=1517	60%
9/20Monday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+0	=1453	40%
9/20Monday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	60%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+0	=1453	40%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	60%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+0	=1453	40%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 226:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	60%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	–1	=1536	52%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	48%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	53%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 236:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	53%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 256:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	53%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 256:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	53%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	47%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–1	=1494	53%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+23	=1476	47%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	53%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	47%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	53%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	47%
10/1Friday, Oct. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–2	=1493	55%
10/1Friday, Oct. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1441	–4	+24	=1461	45%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	55%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1441	–4	+24	=1461	45%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	55%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1441	–4	+24	=1461	45%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
7/31Saturday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1499	–2	+0	=1497	44%	12
7/31Saturday, July 317:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1537	–23	+24	=1538	56%	11
7/30Friday, July 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1500	–29	+0	=1471	34%	4
7/30Friday, July 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1536	+26	+22	=1584	66%	6
7/28Wednesday, July 281:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1497	+13	+0	=1510	46%	2
7/28Wednesday, July 281:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1498	+17	+24	=1539	54%	7
7/27Tuesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1496	+20	+0	=1516	50%	4
7/27Tuesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1499	–11	+26	=1514	50%	2
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1556	–3	+0	=1553	55%	2
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1498	–4	+24	=1518	45%	3
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1554	–19	+0	=1535	55%	8
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1500	–25	+24	=1499	45%	2
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1552	–14	+0	=1538	49%	10
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1502	+20	+24	=1546	51%	5
7/22Thursday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Patino	1551	–23	–3	=1525	52%	5
7/22Thursday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1503	–14	+21	=1510	48%	4
7/21Wednesday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1502	–20	+0	=1482	34%	5
7/21Wednesday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1567	+6	+24	=1597	66%	4
7/20Tuesday, July 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1503	+1	+0	=1504	37%	3
7/20Tuesday, July 208:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1565	+6	+24	=1595	63%	9
7/19Monday, July 198:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1504	–25	–4	=1475	34%	3
7/19Monday, July 198:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1565	+3	+21	=1589	66%	4
7/18Sunday, July 184:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1502	+19	+0	=1521	44%	4
7/18Sunday, July 184:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1520	+20	+24	=1564	56%	2
7/17Saturday, July 174:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1501	–18	+0	=1483	42%	3
7/17Saturday, July 174:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1521	–6	+24	=1539	58%	2
7/16Friday, July 169:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1502	–21	+3	=1484	40%	4
7/16Friday, July 169:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1521	+7	+27	=1555	60%	5
7/10Saturday, July 106:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1451	+13	+0	=1464	44%	6
7/10Saturday, July 106:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1500	–18	+24	=1506	56%	14
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	–6	+0	=1445	40%	1
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1499	–8	+24	=1515	60%	2
7/8Thursday, July 87:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1453	+20	–3	=1470	40%	4
7/8Thursday, July 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1498	+23	+21	=1542	60%	7
7/7Wednesday, July 72:55 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1499	–28	+0	=1471	36%	0
7/7Wednesday, July 72:55 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McHugh	1549	–4	+24	=1569	64%	4
7/7Wednesday, July 712:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1501	–17	+2	=1486	40%	1
7/7Wednesday, July 712:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Wacha	1547	–19	+26	=1554	60%	8
7/5Monday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1501	–42	–3	=1456	33%	8
7/5Monday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Hill	1547	+9	+21	=1577	67%	9
7/4Sunday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1569	+0	+0	=1569	59%	4
7/4Sunday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1502	–20	+24	=1506	41%	3
7/3Saturday, July 37:15 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1568	–6	+0	=1562	58%	3
7/3Saturday, July 37:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1503	–24	+24	=1503	42%	2
7/2Friday, July 27:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1567	–3	+0	=1564	59%	6
7/2Friday, July 27:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1504	–27	+24	=1501	41%	3
7/1Thursday, July 17:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1565	+0	–3	=1562	57%	7
7/1Thursday, July 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1506	–14	+24	=1516	43%	2
6/30Wednesday, June 3010:15 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Peralta	1453	–13	+0	=1440	43%	7
6/30Wednesday, June 3010:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1509	–45	+24	=1488	57%	1
6/30Wednesday, June 304:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1450	–20	+2	=1432	38%	9
6/30Wednesday, June 304:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1512	–20	+26	=1518	62%	4
6/28Monday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Manning	1453	–8	–1	=1444	41%	5
6/28Monday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1510	–25	+21	=1506	59%	13
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1512	–20	+2	=1494	47%	2
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1501	–13	+26	=1514	53%	8
6/25Friday, June 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1513	–20	+0	=1493	48%	7
6/25Friday, June 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Coulombe	1500	–18	+24	=1506	52%	8
6/24Thursday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1511	–26	+0	=1485	40%	4
6/24Thursday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1502	+23	+26	=1551	60%	1
6/22Tuesday, June 228:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1513	–30	+0	=1483	39%	1
6/22Tuesday, June 228:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1513	+22	+24	=1559	61%	7
6/21Monday, June 218:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1510	+12	–2	=1520	45%	4
6/21Monday, June 218:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1516	+15	+24	=1555	55%	0
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1509	–27	+0	=1482	52%	2
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1427	+17	+24	=1468	48%	1
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1512	–20	+0	=1492	59%	3
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1425	–21	+24	=1428	41%	6
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1513	–19	–2	=1492	58%	10
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1424	–8	+24	=1440	42%	11
6/17Thursday, June 171:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1430	–5	+0	=1425	39%	3
6/17Thursday, June 171:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1511	–29	+24	=1506	61%	10
6/16Wednesday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1431	+10	+0	=1441	35%	7
6/16Wednesday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1510	+16	+24	=1550	65%	8
6/15Tuesday, June 157:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Harvey	1432	–27	+0	=1405	36%	2
6/15Tuesday, June 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1509	–26	+24	=1507	64%	7
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1433	–6	–3	=1424	38%	3
6/14Monday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1508	–22	+24	=1510	62%	4
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1464	+3	+0	=1467	34%	6
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1511	+45	+24	=1580	66%	2
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1465	+10	+0	=1475	44%	4
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1510	–15	+24	=1519	56%	5
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1467	+13	–1	=1479	41%	0
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1508	+8	+24	=1540	59%	7
6/9Wednesday, June 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1510	–15	+0	=1495	45%	2
6/9Wednesday, June 98:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1497	+9	+24	=1530	55%	8
6/8Tuesday, June 88:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1507	+45	–1	=1551	56%	10
6/8Tuesday, June 88:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1500	–14	+26	=1512	44%	1
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1512	–21	+0	=1491	56%	5
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1430	–6	+24	=1448	44%	18
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1510	+9	+0	=1519	52%	10
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1433	+48	+24	=1505	48%	4
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1511	–21	+3	=1493	54%	1
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Akin	1431	+7	+26	=1464	46%	3
6/1Tuesday, June 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1536	–17	+0	=1519	42%	5
6/1Tuesday, June 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1510	+43	+24	=1577	58%	6
5/31Monday, May 316:35 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lambert	1538	–37	+0	=1501	49%	1
5/31Monday, May 316:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1509	–23	+24	=1510	51%	3
5/31Monday, May 313:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1537	+5	–2	=1540	53%	8
5/31Monday, May 313:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1510	–17	+24	=1517	47%	6
5/30Sunday, May 303:55 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Matz	1532	–5	+0	=1527	53%	5
5/30Sunday, May 303:55 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1509	–26	+24	=1507	47%	6
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1530	–17	+2	=1515	45%	4
5/30Sunday, May 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1511	+13	+26	=1550	55%	1
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1528	+38	–2	=1564	57%	11
5/28Friday, May 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Morgan	1514	–22	+23	=1515	43%	2
5/27Thursday, May 271:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1512	+39	+0	=1551	61%	5
5/27Thursday, May 271:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1442	+6	+24	=1472	39%	2
5/26Wednesday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1514	–24	+0	=1490	54%	0
5/26Wednesday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1441	–4	+24	=1461	46%	1
5/25Tuesday, May 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1512	+10	+0	=1522	60%	4
5/25Tuesday, May 257:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1442	–16	+24	=1450	40%	1
5/24Monday, May 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1511	–27	–1	=1483	50%	6
5/24Monday, May 247:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1443	+20	+21	=1484	50%	5
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1511	–4	+0	=1507	43%	8
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1513	+18	+24	=1555	57%	5
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1512	+3	+0	=1515	41%	3
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1512	+42	+24	=1578	59%	5
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1508	–13	–4	=1491	46%	10
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1516	–19	+22	=1519	54%	0
5/19Wednesday, May 198:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1515	+6	+0	=1521	49%	3
5/19Wednesday, May 198:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1496	+10	+24	=1530	51%	2
5/18Tuesday, May 189:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1514	+21	+0	=1535	50%	6
5/18Tuesday, May 189:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1497	+10	+24	=1531	50%	5
5/17Monday, May 179:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1515	–19	–3	=1493	50%	4
5/17Monday, May 179:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1495	–20	+20	=1495	50%	7
5/16Sunday, May 164:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1517	+43	+0	=1560	62%	2
5/16Sunday, May 164:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dugger	1474	–20	+24	=1478	38%	3
5/15Saturday, May 159:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1519	–15	+0	=1504	50%	3
5/15Saturday, May 159:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1472	+7	+24	=1503	50%	7
5/14Friday, May 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1521	+5	+0	=1526	58%	3
5/14Friday, May 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1470	–24	+24	=1470	42%	7
5/13Thursday, May 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1520	+16	–4	=1532	56%	4
5/13Thursday, May 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1471	–2	+21	=1490	44%	2
5/12Wednesday, May 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Davies	1503	+1	+0	=1504	48%	1
5/12Wednesday, May 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1519	–25	+24	=1518	52%	2
5/11Tuesday, May 116:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Alzolay	1503	+13	+0	=1516	39%	2
5/11Tuesday, May 116:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1518	+45	+29	=1592	61%	3
5/8Saturday, May 86:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1502	+6	+0	=1508	45%	2
5/8Saturday, May 86:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1516	+3	+24	=1543	55%	9
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1500	–9	+0	=1491	42%	3
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1518	+11	+21	=1550	58%	0
5/6Thursday, May 62:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1516	–18	+0	=1498	48%	4
5/6Thursday, May 62:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1473	+15	+24	=1512	52%	0
5/5Wednesday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1515	+51	+0	=1566	58%	5
5/5Wednesday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1474	+11	+24	=1509	42%	4
5/4Tuesday, May 48:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Maton	1513	–22	+0	=1491	48%	7
5/4Tuesday, May 48:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1476	+6	+24	=1506	52%	3
5/3Monday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1512	+7	–2	=1517	55%	8
5/3Monday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1477	–18	+22	=1481	45%	6
5/2Sunday, May 22:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1509	+9	+0	=1518	44%	5
5/2Sunday, May 22:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1524	+15	+24	=1563	56%	0
5/1Saturday, May 14:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1511	–13	+0	=1498	39%	3
5/1Saturday, May 14:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1523	+31	+24	=1578	61%	7
4/30Friday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1510	+51	+0	=1561	53%	5
4/30Friday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1524	–10	+24	=1538	47%	3
4/28Wednesday, April 281:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1522	+3	+0	=1525	54%	10
4/28Wednesday, April 281:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1512	–42	+24	=1494	46%	2
4/27Tuesday, April 276:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1523	+2	+0	=1525	48%	4
4/27Tuesday, April 276:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1511	+5	+24	=1540	52%	7
4/26Monday, April 266:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1525	+8	–3	=1530	49%	3
4/26Monday, April 266:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1509	+5	+24	=1538	51%	5
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1563	–3	+0	=1560	56%	3
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1507	–10	+24	=1521	44%	7
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1562	+52	+0	=1614	55%	2
4/24Saturday, April 246:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1508	+50	+24	=1582	45%	1
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1561	–6	+0	=1555	58%	5
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1509	–35	+24	=1498	42%	3
4/22Thursday, April 226:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1559	–26	–2	=1531	49%	6
4/22Thursday, April 226:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1511	+4	+26	=1541	51%	3
4/20Tuesday, April 206:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1517	–5	–3	=1509	45%	8
4/20Tuesday, April 206:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1513	+7	+24	=1544	55%	5
4/18Sunday, April 181:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1511	+47	+0	=1558	55%	6
4/18Sunday, April 181:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1510	–10	+24	=1524	45%	3
4/17Saturday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1512	–12	+0	=1500	42%	2
4/17Saturday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1509	+26	+24	=1559	58%	3
4/16Friday, April 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1514	–32	–2	=1480	46%	3
4/16Friday, April 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Hoffman	1506	–22	+22	=1506	54%	10
4/15Thursday, April 152:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1513	+1	+0	=1514	42%	4
4/15Thursday, April 152:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1520	+30	+24	=1574	58%	2
4/14Wednesday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1516	+16	+0	=1532	51%	0
4/14Wednesday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1517	–16	+24	=1525	49%	8
4/13Tuesday, April 138:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1514	+40	+0	=1554	47%	2
4/13Tuesday, April 138:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1518	+30	+24	=1572	53%	0
4/12Monday, April 128:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1515	–13	–2	=1500	45%	3
4/12Monday, April 128:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1517	–9	+24	=1532	55%	4
4/11Sunday, April 111:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1443	–1	+0	=1442	42%	2
4/11Sunday, April 111:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1514	–37	+24	=1501	58%	5
4/10Saturday, April 106:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1445	+5	+0	=1450	38%	3
4/10Saturday, April 106:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1512	–2	+24	=1534	62%	11
4/9Friday, April 97:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Teheran	1446	–13	+1	=1434	34%	1
4/9Friday, April 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1511	+15	+26	=1552	66%	4
4/7Wednesday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1473	–20	+2	=1455	33%	2
4/7Wednesday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1510	+42	+26	=1578	67%	4
4/5Monday, April 54:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1472	+2	–3	=1471	46%	3
4/5Monday, April 54:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1512	–37	+23	=1498	54%	0
4/4Sunday, April 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1510	–2	+0	=1508	55%	9
4/4Sunday, April 41:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1450	+2	+24	=1476	45%	3
4/3Saturday, April 31:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1512	+16	+2	=1530	60%	2
4/3Saturday, April 31:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Teheran	1448	–13	+26	=1461	40%	5
4/1Thursday, April 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1513	+44	–1	=1556	62%	2
4/1Thursday, April 11:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1446	–1	+24	=1469	38%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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