Mariners | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Mariners have a 9% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1473, down 6 points from last week.

AL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Astros Astros18-17	2.5	68%	53%
Athletics Athletics21-15	—	46%	29%
Angels Angels16-18	4.0	19%	10%
Mariners Mariners18-17	2.5	9%	4%
Rangers Rangers18-19	3.5	6%	3%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/11Tuesday, May 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1473	+3	–1	=1475	30%
5/11Tuesday, May 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1590	+7	+25	=1622	70%
5/12Wednesday, May 1210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1473	+7	+0	=1480	34%
5/12Wednesday, May 1210:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1590	–16	+24	=1598	66%
5/13Thursday, May 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1518	+16	–4	=1530	55%
5/13Thursday, May 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+21	=1495	45%
5/14Friday, May 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1518	+6	+0	=1524	54%
5/14Friday, May 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	46%
5/15Saturday, May 159:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1518	–25	+0	=1493	49%
5/15Saturday, May 159:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	51%
5/16Sunday, May 164:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1518	+45	+0	=1563	58%
5/16Sunday, May 164:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1473	+7	+24	=1504	42%
5/17Monday, May 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1435	–4	–4	=1427	40%
5/17Monday, May 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1473	+3	+24	=1500	60%
5/18Tuesday, May 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1435	+12	+0	=1447	42%
5/18Tuesday, May 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1473	+7	+24	=1504	58%
5/19Wednesday, May 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1435	–14	+0	=1421	39%
5/19Wednesday, May 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	61%
5/21Friday, May 2110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–1	=1473	35%
5/21Friday, May 2110:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1557	+1	+26	=1584	65%
5/22Saturday, May 228:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	35%
5/22Saturday, May 228:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1557	+1	+24	=1582	65%
5/23Sunday, May 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	35%
5/23Sunday, May 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1557	+1	+24	=1582	65%
5/24Monday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	41%
5/24Monday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+22	=1537	59%
5/25Tuesday, May 259:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	41%
5/25Tuesday, May 259:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	59%
5/26Wednesday, May 263:37 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	41%
5/26Wednesday, May 263:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	59%
5/27Thursday, May 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	–3	=1464	45%
5/27Thursday, May 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+21	=1495	55%
5/28Friday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
5/28Friday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
5/29Saturday, May 2910:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
5/29Saturday, May 2910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
5/30Sunday, May 304:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
5/30Sunday, May 304:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
5/31Monday, May 314:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	–3	=1512	52%
5/31Monday, May 314:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
6/1Tuesday, June 110:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
6/1Tuesday, June 110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
6/2Wednesday, June 210:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
6/2Wednesday, June 210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
6/3Thursday, June 39:38 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–3	=1471	42%
6/3Thursday, June 39:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	58%
6/4Friday, June 49:38 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
6/4Friday, June 49:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
6/5Saturday, June 510:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
6/5Saturday, June 510:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
6/6Sunday, June 64:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
6/6Sunday, June 64:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	52%
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+1	+24	=1460	48%
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	52%
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+1	+24	=1460	48%
6/10Thursday, June 101:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	52%
6/10Thursday, June 101:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1435	+1	+24	=1460	48%
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–1	=1473	40%
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	40%
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	40%
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	60%
6/14Monday, June 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1520	+0	–3	=1517	53%
6/14Monday, June 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+20	=1494	47%
6/15Tuesday, June 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	53%
6/15Tuesday, June 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	47%
6/16Wednesday, June 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	53%
6/16Wednesday, June 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	47%
6/17Thursday, June 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	–4	=1528	54%
6/17Thursday, June 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	46%
6/18Friday, June 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	+0	=1532	55%
6/18Friday, June 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	45%
6/19Saturday, June 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	+0	=1532	55%
6/19Saturday, June 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	45%
6/20Sunday, June 204:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	+0	=1532	55%
6/20Sunday, June 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	45%
6/22Tuesday, June 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1444	+0	–1	=1443	42%
6/22Tuesday, June 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+26	=1500	58%
6/23Wednesday, June 234:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1444	+0	+0	=1444	42%
6/23Wednesday, June 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	58%
6/25Friday, June 258:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	39%
6/25Friday, June 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1530	+0	+24	=1554	61%
6/26Saturday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	39%
6/26Saturday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1530	+0	+24	=1554	61%
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	39%
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1530	+0	+24	=1554	61%
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	39%
6/29Tuesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1527	+1	+26	=1554	61%
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	39%
6/30Wednesday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	61%
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	39%
7/1Thursday, July 11:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	61%
7/2Friday, July 210:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	–3	=1464	46%
7/2Friday, July 210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+20	=1494	54%
7/3Saturday, July 310:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
7/3Saturday, July 310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
7/4Sunday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
7/4Sunday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
7/6Tuesday, July 610:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	–2	=1560	59%
7/6Tuesday, July 610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+26	=1500	41%
7/7Wednesday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	+0	=1562	59%
7/7Wednesday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	41%
7/8Thursday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	+0	=1562	59%
7/8Thursday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	41%
7/9Friday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	–1	=1502	50%
7/9Friday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	50%
7/10Saturday, July 1010:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	51%
7/10Saturday, July 1010:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	49%
7/11Sunday, July 114:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	51%
7/11Sunday, July 114:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	49%
7/16Friday, July 169:38 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+4	=1478	43%
7/16Friday, July 169:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+28	=1531	57%
7/17Saturday, July 179:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
7/17Saturday, July 179:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
7/18Sunday, July 184:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
7/18Sunday, July 184:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
7/20Tuesday, July 208:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–1	=1473	51%
7/20Tuesday, July 208:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1444	+0	+26	=1470	49%
7/21Wednesday, July 213:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	51%
7/21Wednesday, July 213:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1444	+0	+24	=1468	49%
7/22Thursday, July 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	–1	=1514	53%
7/22Thursday, July 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+21	=1495	47%
7/23Friday, July 2310:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
7/23Friday, July 2310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
7/24Saturday, July 2410:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
7/24Saturday, July 2410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
7/25Sunday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
7/25Sunday, July 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
7/26Monday, July 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	–4	=1545	57%
7/26Monday, July 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	43%
7/27Tuesday, July 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+0	=1549	57%
7/27Tuesday, July 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	43%
7/28Wednesday, July 283:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+0	=1549	57%
7/28Wednesday, July 283:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	43%
7/30Friday, July 308:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	47%
7/30Friday, July 308:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+26	=1493	53%
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	48%
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+24	=1491	52%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 12:35 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	48%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 12:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+24	=1491	52%
8/2Monday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–3	=1471	38%
8/2Monday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	+24	=1556	62%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	38%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	+24	=1556	62%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 41:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	38%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 41:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1532	+0	+24	=1556	62%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–3	=1471	34%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	+24	=1586	66%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	34%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	+24	=1586	66%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 71:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	34%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 71:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	+24	=1586	66%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	34%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1562	+0	+24	=1586	66%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	–1	=1466	46%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+22	=1496	54%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+0	=1467	45%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1527	+1	–3	=1525	54%
8/13Friday, Aug. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	46%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	54%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	46%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	54%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	46%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	47%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+26	=1493	53%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 188:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	48%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 188:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+24	=1491	52%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 192:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	48%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 192:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1466	+1	+24	=1491	52%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	36%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+21	=1570	64%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	36%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 217:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+24	=1573	64%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	36%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+24	=1573	64%
8/23Monday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–4	=1470	40%
8/23Monday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	60%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 243:37 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	41%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 243:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	59%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	–4	=1462	45%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+23	=1497	55%
8/27Friday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	45%
8/27Friday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	45%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	45%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 294:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	55%
8/30Monday, Aug. 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	–4	=1545	57%
8/30Monday, Aug. 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	43%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 3110:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+0	=1549	57%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 3110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	43%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 14:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+0	=1549	57%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 14:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	43%
9/3Friday, Sept. 39:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–1	=1473	44%
9/3Friday, Sept. 39:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1486	+1	+26	=1513	56%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	45%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1486	+1	+24	=1511	55%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	45%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1486	+1	+24	=1511	55%
9/6Monday, Sept. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–3	=1471	36%
9/6Monday, Sept. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+21	=1570	64%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	36%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+24	=1573	64%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	36%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+1	+24	=1573	64%
9/10Friday, Sept. 1010:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1486	+1	–1	=1486	48%
9/10Friday, Sept. 1010:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+22	=1496	52%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 119:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1486	+1	+0	=1487	48%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 119:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	52%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1486	+1	+0	=1487	48%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 124:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	52%
9/13Monday, Sept. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1513	–1	–4	=1508	51%
9/13Monday, Sept. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	49%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1513	–1	+0	=1512	52%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1513	–1	+0	=1512	52%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 154:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
9/17Friday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	48%
9/17Friday, Sept. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	52%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	48%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	52%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 192:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	48%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 192:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	52%
9/20Monday, Sept. 209:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–4	=1470	41%
9/20Monday, Sept. 209:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+22	=1537	59%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	41%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	59%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	41%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	59%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 233:37 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	41%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 233:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+24	=1539	59%
9/24Friday, Sept. 249:38 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	–2	=1472	42%
9/24Friday, Sept. 249:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	58%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 259:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 259:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 264:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+0	=1474	43%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 264:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	57%
9/27Monday, Sept. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	–3	=1512	52%
9/27Monday, Sept. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+21	=1495	48%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 2910:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1514	+1	+0	=1515	52%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 2910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	48%
10/1Friday, Oct. 110:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	–4	=1499	50%
10/1Friday, Oct. 110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+26	=1500	50%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 29:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	51%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 29:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	49%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	51%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1473	+1	+24	=1498	49%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/9Sunday, May 92:35 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1476	+11	+0	=1487	48%	2
5/9Sunday, May 92:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1465	+14	+24	=1503	52%	10
5/8Saturday, May 87:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Swanson	1477	–19	+0	=1458	48%	8
5/8Saturday, May 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Arihara	1464	–15	+24	=1473	52%	9
5/7Friday, May 78:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1476	–25	–2	=1449	44%	5
5/7Friday, May 78:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Foltynewicz	1465	+7	+21	=1493	56%	4
5/5Wednesday, May 53:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1444	+41	+0	=1485	48%	6
5/5Wednesday, May 53:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1478	+0	+24	=1502	52%	0
5/4Tuesday, May 410:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1445	–21	+0	=1424	38%	2
5/4Tuesday, May 410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1477	+5	+24	=1506	62%	5
5/3Monday, May 310:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1444	–5	–3	=1436	44%	5
5/3Monday, May 310:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Swanson	1479	–23	+24	=1480	56%	3
5/2Sunday, May 24:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Bundy	1506	+17	+0	=1523	52%	0
5/2Sunday, May 24:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1477	+9	+24	=1510	48%	2
5/1Saturday, May 19:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1504	+1	+0	=1505	51%	10
5/1Saturday, May 19:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Newsome	1479	–8	+24	=1495	49%	5
4/30Friday, April 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1506	+16	–2	=1520	57%	4
4/30Friday, April 3010:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1477	–25	+20	=1472	43%	7
4/29Thursday, April 292:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1476	–8	+0	=1468	37%	1
4/29Thursday, April 292:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1548	–11	+24	=1561	63%	0
4/28Wednesday, April 288:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1477	+4	+0	=1481	35%	5
4/28Wednesday, April 288:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1548	+14	+24	=1586	65%	7
4/27Tuesday, April 278:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1478	+27	+0	=1505	39%	0
4/27Tuesday, April 278:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1547	+8	+24	=1579	61%	2
4/26Monday, April 268:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1479	+12	–4	=1487	38%	2
4/26Monday, April 268:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1545	+2	+24	=1571	62%	5
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1480	–16	+0	=1464	37%	3
4/25Sunday, April 251:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1509	+23	+24	=1556	63%	5
4/24Saturday, April 241:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1477	–34	+0	=1443	36%	8
4/24Saturday, April 241:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1512	+7	+24	=1543	64%	2
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1477	–4	+0	=1473	44%	5
4/23Friday, April 237:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1511	–18	+24	=1517	56%	6
4/22Thursday, April 227:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1475	+3	–2	=1476	43%	7
4/22Thursday, April 227:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1513	–14	+24	=1523	57%	3
4/20Tuesday, April 204:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1606	–23	+0	=1583	59%	1
4/20Tuesday, April 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1476	+22	+24	=1522	41%	0
4/19Monday, April 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1608	–27	–3	=1578	59%	3
4/19Monday, April 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1475	+13	+24	=1512	41%	4
4/18Sunday, April 184:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1548	–3	+0	=1545	59%	2
4/18Sunday, April 184:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1472	–16	+24	=1480	41%	7
4/17Saturday, April 179:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1547	+11	+0	=1558	64%	1
4/17Saturday, April 179:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1473	–37	+24	=1460	36%	0
4/16Friday, April 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1548	+7	–2	=1553	59%	5
4/16Friday, April 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1471	–2	+20	=1489	41%	6
4/15Thursday, April 153:45 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1470	+2	+0	=1472	52%	2
4/15Thursday, April 153:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1437	–2	+24	=1459	48%	1
4/15Thursday, April 1512:35 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1469	+23	+2	=1494	57%	4
4/15Thursday, April 1512:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Harvey	1439	–20	+26	=1445	43%	2
4/13Tuesday, April 137:15 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Margevicius	1470	–13	+0	=1457	49%	6
4/13Tuesday, April 137:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1438	+3	+24	=1465	51%	7
4/13Tuesday, April 134:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1469	+12	–1	=1480	47%	4
4/13Tuesday, April 134:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1439	+35	+26	=1500	53%	3
4/11Sunday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1467	–35	+0	=1432	32%	8
4/11Sunday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1543	–5	+24	=1562	68%	6
4/10Saturday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1466	–4	+2	=1464	35%	4
4/10Saturday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1545	+1	+26	=1572	65%	3
4/8Thursday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1468	+29	–3	=1494	39%	2
4/8Thursday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1542	+6	+21	=1569	61%	10
4/7Wednesday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1519	–6	+0	=1513	53%	4
4/7Wednesday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Dunn	1466	+3	+24	=1493	47%	8
4/6Tuesday, April 610:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1517	+31	+0	=1548	54%	10
4/6Tuesday, April 610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Paxton	1468	+32	+24	=1524	46%	4
4/5Monday, April 510:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1514	–17	–3	=1494	47%	6
4/5Monday, April 510:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1471	+15	+26	=1512	53%	0
4/3Saturday, April 39:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1482	–5	+0	=1477	54%	0
4/3Saturday, April 39:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1469	–45	+24	=1448	46%	4
4/2Friday, April 210:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1480	–3	+0	=1477	48%	6
4/2Friday, April 210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1470	–6	+24	=1488	52%	3
4/1Thursday, April 110:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1481	+13	–3	=1491	45%	7
4/1Thursday, April 110:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1469	+35	+24	=1528	55%	8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL West standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments