Updated Jul. 31, 2021, at 11:56 PM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Padres have a 76% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1551, down 10 points from last week.

NL West standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
DodgersDodgers63-433.099%60%
GiantsGiants65-3996%33%
PadresPadres60-476.576%7%
RockiesRockies46-5919.5<1%<1%
DbacksDiamondbacks33-7232.5<1%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/1Sunday, Aug. 14:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
1459+5+0=146435%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157465%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 39:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15516+0=154548%
OAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1524+11+24=155952%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 43:37 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1551+17+0=156853%
OAKOAKAthletics
Montas, Frankie
Montas
15241+24=154747%
8/6Friday, Aug. 610:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
144452=143735%
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
155127+24=154865%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 78:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
14446+0=143828%
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1551+25+24=160072%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 84:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1444+10+0=145433%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157467%
8/9Monday, Aug. 910:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
1476+53=147837%
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15516+24=156963%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 1010:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1476+21+0=149737%
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1551+17+24=159263%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 114:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+0=147740%
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
155127+24=154860%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 129:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
155112=154861%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+21=147339%
8/13Friday, Aug. 139:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+24=147640%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 148:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+24=147640%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 154:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+24=147640%
8/16Monday, Aug. 168:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
155113=154760%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+21=148040%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+24=148340%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 183:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
COLCOLRockies
Pitcher TBD
1459+0+24=148340%
8/20Friday, Aug. 2010:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+12=149939%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+23=157361%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 218:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+0=150140%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157460%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 223:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+0=150140%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157460%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 2410:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+1=159252%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+26=157648%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 2510:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+0=159152%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157448%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 269:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+0=159152%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157448%
8/27Friday, Aug. 279:38 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
155111=154954%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+3+20=152246%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 289:07 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155054%
LAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+3+24=152646%
8/30Monday, Aug. 309:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155061%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+20=147239%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 319:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+24=147640%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 13:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155060%
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Pitcher TBD
1444+8+24=147640%
9/3Friday, Sept. 310:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1570+01=156949%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157451%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 48:40 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1570+0+0=157049%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157451%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Pitcher TBD
1570+0+0=157049%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157451%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 710:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+31=150139%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+26=157661%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Pitcher TBD
1499+3+0=150240%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157460%
9/10Friday, Sept. 1010:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+1=155142%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+20=161158%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 119:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155041%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+24=161559%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 124:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155041%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+24=161559%
9/13Monday, Sept. 139:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
155112=154850%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+20=155250%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 149:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155049%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+24=155651%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 159:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155049%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+24=155651%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 163:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155049%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+24=155651%
9/17Friday, Sept. 178:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
155114=154655%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+23=151245%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155055%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+24=151345%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 192:15 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155055%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+24=151345%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 2110:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+22=157256%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 2210:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157456%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 234:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+0=153244%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157456%
9/24Friday, Sept. 2410:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
153452=152743%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157457%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 258:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+0=152943%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157457%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 264:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+0=152943%
SDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+24=157457%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 2810:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+1=155141%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+24=161559%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 2910:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155041%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+24=161559%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 3010:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155041%
LADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+24=161559%
10/1Friday, Oct. 19:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
155112=154849%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+24=155651%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 24:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155049%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+24=155651%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Pitcher TBD
15511+0=155049%
SFSFGiants
Pitcher TBD
1531+1+24=155651%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
7/31Saturday, July 318:40 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1457+32+0=148934%5
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1553+30+24=160766%3
7/30Friday, July 3010:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1454+6+0=146035%9
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
155713+24=156865%4
7/29Thursday, July 2910:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1455131=144130%0
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1556+10+24=159070%3
7/28Wednesday, July 284:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
1519+10+0=152942%10
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15591+24=158258%4
7/27Tuesday, July 2710:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Kaprielian, James
Kaprielian
1520+51=152445%4
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155718+22=156155%7
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1561+30+0=159166%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Curtiss, John
Curtiss
147423+24=147534%9
7/24Saturday, July 246:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156217+0=154561%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Garrett, Braxton
Garrett
147328+24=146939%3
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1561+8+0=156959%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
1474+5+24=150341%2
7/22Thursday, July 227:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
156043=155361%3
MIAMIAMarlins
Bender, Anthony
Bender
147518+21=147839%2
7/21Wednesday, July 2112:20 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155922+0=153750%3
ATLATLBraves
Muller, Kyle
Muller
152713+24=153850%2
7/20Tuesday, July 207:20 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1560+331=159262%1
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
152540+26=151138%2
7/18Sunday, July 183:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1561+12+0=157350%7
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1508+43+24=157550%8
7/17Saturday, July 177:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1559+0+0=155955%10
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
15109+24=152545%4
7/16Friday, July 167:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155523+3=153552%24
WSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151417+27=152448%8
7/11Sunday, July 114:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1451+2+0=145334%3
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
155716+24=156566%1
7/10Saturday, July 1010:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1448+34+0=148234%3
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1559+12+24=159566%0
7/9Friday, July 910:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1449192=142832%2
SDSDPadres
Knehr, Reiss
Knehr
155920+24=156368%4
7/8Thursday, July 89:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1519+44+0=156342%8
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1558+37+24=161958%9
7/7Wednesday, July 710:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
151514+0=150140%15
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156217+24=156960%5
7/6Tuesday, July 610:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
151616+0=150040%4
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156117+24=156860%7
7/5Monday, July 510:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
1514354=147534%7
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1563+11+20=159466%5
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15608+0=155256%11
PHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
150214+24=151244%1
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1562+37+0=159962%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Eflin, Zach
Eflin
150011+24=151338%4
7/2Friday, July 26:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1562222=153846%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1499+43+26=156854%4
7/1Thursday, July 17:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156416+0=154853%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+5+24=152847%5
6/30Wednesday, June 307:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1563+16+0=157960%7
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150018+24=150640%5
6/29Tuesday, June 297:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Stammen, Craig
Stammen
1562252=153554%5
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
150120+24=150546%4
6/27Sunday, June 274:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1452+37+0=148932%4
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1561+36+24=162168%5
6/26Saturday, June 2610:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1448+15+0=146331%10
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1566+8+24=159869%1
6/25Friday, June 2510:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Martin, Corbin
Martin
144925+0=142430%5
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156519+26=157270%11
6/23Wednesday, June 2310 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1592+21+0=161352%3
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1563+11+24=159848%5
6/22Tuesday, June 2210 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1593+9+0=160254%2
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
156213+24=157346%3
6/21Monday, June 2110 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
1595132=158045%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1560+32+24=161655%6
6/20Sunday, June 204:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+0+0=149937%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1559+7+24=159063%3
6/19Saturday, June 197:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
15009+0=149141%5
SDSDPadres
Diaz, Miguel
Diaz
155829+24=155359%7
6/18Friday, June 1810:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
150223+0=147938%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155719+24=156262%8
6/17Thursday, June 178:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150324=149737%4
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1556+11+21=158863%6
6/16Wednesday, June 163:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15575+0=155265%7
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
144223+24=144335%8
6/15Tuesday, June 158:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1560+34+0=159471%4
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
143925+24=143829%8
6/14Monday, June 148:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1561+44=156163%2
COLCOLRockies
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
1438+8+21=146737%3
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155922+0=153750%7
NYMNYMMets
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
154331+24=153650%3
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1561+9+0=157051%1
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15414+24=156149%4
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
156232=155741%2
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1540+56+24=162059%3
6/9Wednesday, June 94:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151816+0=150233%3
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1564+33+24=162167%1
6/8Tuesday, June 810 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1515+4+0=151939%7
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1567+6+24=159761%1
6/7Monday, June 710 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1517+222=153745%4
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156520+24=156955%9
6/6Sunday, June 64:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15385+0=153345%6
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156723+24=156855%2
6/5Saturday, June 510:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1536+55+0=159148%4
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1570+11+24=160552%0
6/4Friday, June 410:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Lucchesi, Joey
Lucchesi
153730+0=150739%0
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15689+24=158361%2
6/3Thursday, June 310 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1538+32=153938%3
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1568+35+20=162362%4
6/2Wednesday, June 22:20 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1570+6+0=157653%1
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1518+16+24=155847%6
6/1Tuesday, June 18:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
157115+0=155650%3
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1517+16+24=155750%4
5/31Monday, May 312:20 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
1574203=155155%2
CHCCHCCubs
Stewart, Kohl
Stewart
151519+24=152045%7
5/30Sunday, May 302:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15756+0=156949%4
HOUHOUAstros
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1550+6+24=158051%7
5/29Saturday, May 294:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1574+36+0=161057%11
HOUHOUAstros
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
155111+24=156443%8
5/28Friday, May 288:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1571+53=157350%10
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15546+26=157450%3
5/27Thursday, May 271:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
157223+0=154956%5
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
150828+24=150444%6
5/26Wednesday, May 267:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
157125+0=154657%2
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
150935+24=149843%1
5/25Tuesday, May 257:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1569+7+0=157651%7
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1512+30+24=156649%1
5/24Monday, May 247:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
157014=156549%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1510+44+22=157651%5
5/23Sunday, May 234:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Dunn, Justin
Dunn
1465+10+0=147529%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1569+36+24=162971%9
5/22Saturday, May 228:40 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
1466+10+0=147636%4
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156819+24=157364%6
5/21Friday, May 2110:10 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Flexen, Chris
Flexen
1468211=144634%1
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156629+26=156366%16
5/19Wednesday, May 194:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
144319+0=142428%0
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1565+1+24=159072%3
5/18Tuesday, May 1810:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
14445+0=143930%1
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15641+24=158770%2
5/17Monday, May 1710:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1445+173=145928%0
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1563+36+24=162372%7
5/16Sunday, May 167 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1511+8+0=151942%3
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156214+24=157258%5
5/15Saturday, May 158:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1514+6+0=152045%3
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155927+24=155655%13
5/14Friday, May 1410:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
1514284=148236%4
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1558+3+23=158464%5
5/12Wednesday, May 127:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
15601+0=155964%2
COLCOLRockies
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
14418+24=145736%3
5/12Wednesday, May 123:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1559+35+0=159465%5
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1442+19+24=148535%3
5/11Tuesday, May 118:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1557+71=156364%8
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14445+23=146236%1
5/9Sunday, May 94:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155428+0=152651%11
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
14982+24=152049%1
5/8Saturday, May 84:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1557+6+0=156354%1
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1495+17+24=153646%7
5/7Friday, May 79:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1558+1+0=155955%4
SFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1494+6+23=152345%5
5/5Wednesday, May 58:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1439+16+0=145528%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1557+36+24=161772%4
5/4Tuesday, May 410:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143812+0=142628%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1559+8+24=159172%1
5/3Monday, May 310:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1439+124=144736%0
SDSDPadres
Diaz, Miguel
Diaz
155835+24=154764%2
5/2Sunday, May 24:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1490+16+0=150638%7
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1561+8+24=159362%1
5/1Saturday, May 18:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1491+6+0=149738%2
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1560+1+24=158562%6
4/30Friday, April 3010:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
149216+0=147631%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1559+34+24=161769%3
4/28Wednesday, April 289:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
155716+0=154154%12
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Riley
Smith
149711+24=151046%3
4/27Tuesday, April 279:40 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155931+0=152851%1
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1495+1+22=151849%5
4/25Sunday, April 257 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1557+9+0=156645%8
LADLADDodgers
May, Dustin
May
160429+24=159955%7
4/24Saturday, April 249:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1558+1+0=155937%4
LADLADDodgers
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1603+26+24=165363%5
4/23Friday, April 2310:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1555+31+0=158642%6
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1606+11+24=164158%1
4/22Thursday, April 2210:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
1554261=152735%3
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1607+5+23=163565%2
4/21Wednesday, April 214:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152421+0=150338%4
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1556+10+24=159062%2
4/20Tuesday, April 2010:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1521+29+0=155050%6
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155828+24=155450%0
4/19Monday, April 1910:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1520+334=154944%3
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1560+9+24=159356%1
4/18Sunday, April 184:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Bauer, Trevor
Bauer
1610+27+0=163758%2
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1558+2+24=158442%5
4/17Saturday, April 178:40 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1608+10+0=161851%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1559+29+24=161249%0
4/16Friday, April 1610:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1606+91=161459%11
SDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156130+20=155141%6
4/15Thursday, April 1512:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155927+0=153260%8
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14371+24=146040%3
4/14Wednesday, April 146:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1562+11+0=157365%1
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1435+5+24=146435%5
4/13Tuesday, April 136:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1565+8+0=157367%4
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14324+24=145233%8
4/12Monday, April 126:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1564+263=158769%6
PITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14337+24=145031%2
4/11Sunday, April 112:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
156337+0=152655%2
TEXTEXRangers
Foltynewicz, Mike
Foltynewicz
1457+7+24=148845%0
4/10Saturday, April 107:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156228+0=153459%7
TEXTEXRangers
Lyles, Jordan
Lyles
145910+24=147341%4
4/9Friday, April 98:05 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1561+21=156261%3
TEXTEXRangers
Arihara, Kohei
Arihara
14605+26=148139%0
4/7Wednesday, April 74:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1480+16+0=149636%3
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1562+11+24=159764%2
4/6Tuesday, April 610:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Sanchez, Aaron
Sanchez
148112+0=146930%1
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1561+27+24=161270%3
4/5Monday, April 510:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1479+31=148140%3
SDSDPadres
Morejon, Adrian
Morejon
156331+24=155660%2
4/4Sunday, April 44:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
14859+0=147638%3
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
156525+24=156462%1
4/3Saturday, April 38:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14878+0=147935%0
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
15632+24=158565%7
4/2Friday, April 210:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1488+13+0=150137%2
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1562+10+24=159663%4
4/1Thursday, April 14:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
148912=148632%7
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1561+33+24=161868%8

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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