Updated Oct. 24, 2021, at 1:44 PM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Pirates are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BrewersBrewers95-67
CardinalsCardinals90-725.0
RedsReds83-7912.0
CubsCubs71-9124.0
PiratesPirates61-10134.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
149913+0=148656%6
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14265+24=144544%3
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+13+0=151459%6
PITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
1424+0+24=144841%8
10/1Friday, Oct. 16:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+18+0=152263%2
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142013+24=143137%9
9/30Thursday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Steele, Justin
Steele
14543+0=145149%9
PITPITPirates
Yajure, Miguel
Yajure
1424+13+24=146151%0
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1453+15+0=146852%3
PITPITPirates
Contreras, Roansy
Contreras
1425+8+24=145748%2
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 286:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1455+15+0=147054%6
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14231+22=144446%8
9/27Monday, Sept. 271:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Overton, Connor
Overton
1426+62=143039%1
CINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
150521+24=150861%13
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
14238+0=141537%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Crouse, Hans
Crouse
150927+24=150663%0
9/25Saturday, Sept. 254:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142413+0=141133%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Suarez, Ranger
Suarez
1509+1+24=153467%3
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Howard, Sam
Howard
1425+6+0=143136%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
15081+24=153164%8
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Overton, Connor
Overton
1426+10+0=143635%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1506+15+24=154565%12
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14232+0=142134%6
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1506+10+24=154066%2
9/20Monday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
142543=141837%5
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150417+24=151163%9
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
142510+0=141534%5
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+39+24=153166%6
9/18Saturday, Sept. 186:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1423+3+0=142644%6
MIAMIAMarlins
Cabrera, Edward
Cabrera
147024+24=147056%3
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
1422163=140338%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
14714+23=149062%1
9/16Thursday, Sept. 1612:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1504+7+0=151158%1
PITPITPirates
Overton, Connor
Overton
1423+7+24=145442%0
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150514+0=149157%4
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14213+24=144243%5
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1507+01=150659%5
PITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
14205+26=144141%6
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
148316+0=146752%6
PITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1422+10+24=145648%2
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Gray, Josiah
Gray
148516+0=146956%7
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142018+24=142644%10
9/10Friday, Sept. 106:35 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Rogers, Josh
Rogers
1486162=146851%3
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1419+13+26=145849%4
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Manning, Matt
Manning
146623+0=144350%5
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14212+24=144350%1
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Peralta, Wily
Peralta
14676+0=146154%2
PITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
14207+24=143746%3
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Skubal, Tarik
Skubal
1469+72=147454%3
PITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1418+10+22=145046%6
9/5Sunday, Sept. 52:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
141911+0=140837%8
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1469+5+24=149863%11
9/4Saturday, Sept. 42:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1420+3+0=142338%6
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1468+17+24=150962%7
9/3Friday, Sept. 32:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1421+15+0=143640%5
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1467+17+24=150860%6
9/2Thursday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
142191=141139%5
CHCCHCCubs
Thompson, Keegan
Thompson
14672+22=148761%6
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
14226+0=141628%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1542+12+24=157872%6
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1423+9+0=143230%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1541+15+26=158270%4
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1500+3+0=150360%3
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142113+24=143240%4
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1496+35+0=153159%13
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1424+21+24=146941%0
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Happ, J.A.
Happ
149617+0=147956%4
PITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
142512+24=143744%3
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1498+143=150960%7
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14238+24=143940%11
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gilbert, Tyler
Gilbert
1447+4+0=145150%5
PITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1425+3+24=145250%2
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1449+17+0=146653%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14232+24=144547%4
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Mejia, Humberto
Mejia
1450153=143250%5
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142211+21=143250%6
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1423+22+0=144535%0
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1497+28+24=154965%3
8/21Saturday, Aug. 217:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
142216+0=140636%5
STLSTLCardinals
Happ, J.A.
Happ
149918+24=150564%4
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
141992=140832%4
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1502+13+24=153968%0
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 1810:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1420+4+0=142429%0
LADLADDodgers
Bruihl, Justin
Bruihl
159939+24=158471%9
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 1710:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142113+0=140824%3
LADLADDodgers
Price, David
Price
159919+24=160476%4
8/16Monday, Aug. 1610:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1421+194=143630%1
LADLADDodgers
Bruihl, Justin
Bruihl
159839+20=157970%2
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
154330+0=151362%2
PITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
142216+24=143038%1
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Ashby, Aaron
Ashby
154148+0=149358%6
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14249+24=143942%0
8/14Saturday, Aug. 142:30 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
154621+0=152560%4
PITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1420+8+26=145440%14
8/12Thursday, Aug. 1212:35 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
149421+0=147353%7
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1421+7+24=145247%6
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1493+25+0=151862%4
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142215+24=143138%0
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Happ, J.A.
Happ
1491231=146750%4
PITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1424+18+24=146650%1
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1424+5+0=142935%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1512+3+24=153965%3
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14268+0=141837%3
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
151020+24=151463%11
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1429+14+0=144337%0
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1508+3+24=153563%10
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
1429112=141633%4
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1507+11+24=154267%7
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 42:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brault, Steven
Brault
1430+15+0=144532%2
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1539+14+24=157768%4
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
14287+0=142134%8
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
154127+24=153866%5
8/2Monday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1429+02=142736%2
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
154031+21=153064%6
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Gibson, Kyle
Gibson
1500+12+0=151259%15
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143210+24=144641%4
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1501+18+0=151958%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1431+10+24=146542%3
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
1505232=148056%0
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142715+24=143644%7
7/29Thursday, July 297:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1537+11+0=154862%12
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1430+8+24=146238%0
7/28Wednesday, July 287:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
153630+0=150657%7
PITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
1432+2+24=145843%3
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
153327+0=150657%9
PITPITPirates
Oviedo, Luis
Oviedo
1434+1+22=145743%0
7/25Sunday, July 254:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1436+8+0=144436%1
SFSFGiants
Wood, Alex
Wood
15287+24=154564%6
7/24Saturday, July 249:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143122+0=140926%10
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1533+31+24=158874%2
7/23Friday, July 239:45 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1429+61=143435%6
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
153518+22=153965%4
7/21Wednesday, July 213:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
1430+5+0=143544%4
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Bumgarner, Madison
Bumgarner
1445+7+24=147656%6
7/20Tuesday, July 209:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1432+16+0=144846%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
1443+8+24=147554%11
7/19Monday, July 199:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
1433174=141243%2
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Caleb
Smith
14427+24=145957%4
7/18Sunday, July 181:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1531+3+0=153459%7
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1434+11+24=146941%6
7/17Saturday, July 177:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Megill, Tylor
Megill
153328+0=150560%7
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143222+24=143440%9
7/16Friday, July 167:05 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15359+5=153160%1
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1430+3+29=146240%4
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
142815+0=141334%6
NYMNYMMets
Loup, Aaron
Loup
153635+24=152566%5
7/10Saturday, July 107:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
1429+8+0=143737%2
NYMNYMMets
Megill, Tylor
Megill
153530+24=152963%4
7/10Saturday, July 104:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1426+14+0=144034%6
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15388+24=155466%2
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1428+13+0=144133%4
NYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
1536+4+26=156667%13
7/7Wednesday, July 712:35 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
152115+0=150661%14
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143125+24=143039%3
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1522+14+0=153662%1
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14293+24=145038%2
7/5Monday, July 57:05 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
152712=152463%1
PITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
142519+24=143037%11
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1533+16+0=154963%0
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1423+11+24=145837%2
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
153135+0=149657%11
PITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
14262+24=144843%2
7/2Friday, July 27:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152926+0=150355%7
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1428+17+24=146945%2
7/1Thursday, July 17:05 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1527+272=155268%7
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142927+21=142332%2
6/30Wednesday, June 303:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14303+0=142744%2
COLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1445+3+24=147256%6
6/29Tuesday, June 298:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
143219+0=141338%0
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1443+28+24=149562%8
6/28Monday, June 285:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1434+83=143950%0
COLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
144225+21=143850%2
6/27Sunday, June 272:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
1431+0+0=143142%7
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
148825+24=148758%2
6/26Saturday, June 262:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1432+21+0=145339%1
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1487+22+24=153361%3
6/25Friday, June 258:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143122+0=140935%5
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1489+4+24=151765%4
6/24Thursday, June 248:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
142763=141839%8
STLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
149219+22=149561%2
6/23Wednesday, June 2312:35 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
153522+0=151361%4
PITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
142817+24=143539%3
6/22Tuesday, June 227:05 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
1537+121=154863%3
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1426+7+26=145937%6
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Hentges, Sam
Hentges
150927+0=148252%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1427+17+24=146848%1
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
151220+0=149259%3
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142521+24=142841%6
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Mejia, J.C.
Mejia
1513192=149258%10
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14248+24=144042%11
6/16Wednesday, June 164:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
142417+0=140737%1
WSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
151031+24=150363%3
6/15Tuesday, June 157:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1426+11+0=143739%1
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
150819+24=151361%8
6/14Monday, June 147:05 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1427+173=144141%2
WSHWSHNationals
Lester, Jon
Lester
150726+24=150559%3
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142828+0=140033%2
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152221+24=152567%5
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14294+0=142529%4
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1521+33+24=157871%7
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
1430202=140826%4
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1521+47+22=159074%7
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
159610+0=158669%6
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14318+24=144731%3
6/9Wednesday, June 97:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
159514+0=158166%2
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1431+11+24=146634%1
6/8Tuesday, June 87:05 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1594+7+0=160168%5
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1432+15+26=147332%3
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+11+0=147954%3
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14335+24=145246%1
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Rogers, Trevor
Rogers
1470+19+0=148957%7
PITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
143214+24=144243%8
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Poteet, Cody
Poteet
14731+0=147254%2
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14297+24=144646%9
6/3Thursday, June 37:05 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1474102=146250%3
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1428+10+23=146150%5
6/1Tuesday, June 18:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142921+0=140837%5
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1474+3+24=150163%10
5/31Monday, May 318 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
143083=141938%3
KCKCRoyals
Minor, Mike
Minor
1473+13+22=150862%7
5/30Sunday, May 301:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
14418+0=143350%4
PITPITPirates
De Jong, Chase
De Jong
143121+24=143450%3
5/29Saturday, May 294:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
14431+0=144250%0
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
142911+24=144250%4
5/29Saturday, May 2912:05 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gray, Jon
Gray
1446+10+0=145649%0
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1427+11+26=146451%7
5/27Thursday, May 2712:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1513+17+0=153059%5
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1428+12+24=146441%3
5/26Wednesday, May 266:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
151124+0=148757%4
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142913+24=144043%1
5/25Tuesday, May 256:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
151051=150457%4
PITPITPirates
Ponce, Cody
Ponce
1430+5+24=145943%3
5/23Sunday, May 231:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1432+13+0=144536%1
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
15253+24=154664%7
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143311+0=142236%1
ATLATLBraves
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
152427+24=152164%6
5/21Friday, May 217:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1436+16+0=145235%1
ATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1521+15+24=156065%20
5/20Thursday, May 207:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
1435142=141935%6
ATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
152320+24=152765%4
5/19Wednesday, May 197:45 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14355+0=143031%5
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1511+36+24=157169%8
5/18Tuesday, May 187:45 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1437+141=145039%2
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
15095+22=152661%5
5/16Sunday, May 161:05 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Wood, Alex
Wood
14951+0=149457%4
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143816+24=144643%1
5/15Saturday, May 156:35 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
149611+0=148551%6
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1437+17+24=147849%8
5/14Friday, May 146:35 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1498+19+0=151759%2
PITPITPirates
Yajure, Miguel
Yajure
14359+24=145041%3
5/13Thursday, May 136:35 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1497+52=150058%3
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143615+24=144542%1
5/12Wednesday, May 1212:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1501+24+0=152560%5
PITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14387+24=145540%1
5/11Tuesday, May 116:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150322+0=148151%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1436+14+24=147449%7
5/10Monday, May 106:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1500+1+0=150157%14
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143910+22=145143%1
5/9Sunday, May 92:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1437+13+0=145036%6
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1505+19+24=154864%5
5/8Saturday, May 82:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
143822+0=141637%2
CHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150422+24=150663%3
5/7Friday, May 72:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
143962=143137%2
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
15033+26=152663%3
5/5Wednesday, May 58:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1439+16+0=145528%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1557+36+24=161772%4
5/4Tuesday, May 410:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143812+0=142628%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1559+8+24=159172%1
5/3Monday, May 310:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1439+124=144736%0
SDSDPadres
Diaz, Miguel
Diaz
155835+24=154764%2
5/2Sunday, May 21:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
150913+0=149658%3
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
144021+24=144342%0
5/1Saturday, May 16:35 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1507+29+0=153660%12
PITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14422+24=146440%5
4/30Friday, April 306:35 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
150563=149651%7
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1444+18+26=148849%3
4/28Wednesday, April 286:35 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Minor, Mike
Minor
1477+10+0=148754%9
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14459+24=146046%6
4/27Tuesday, April 276:35 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Junis, Jakob
Junis
1478182=145847%1
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1444+8+23=147553%2
4/25Sunday, April 252:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
144227+0=141533%6
MINMINTwins
Shoemaker, Matt
Shoemaker
152812+24=154067%2
4/24Saturday, April 242:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14396+0=143332%6
MINMINTwins
Pineda, Michael
Pineda
1530+10+24=156468%2
4/23Friday, April 238:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1440+153=145236%0
MINMINTwins
Happ, J.A.
Happ
15293+22=154864%2
4/22Thursday, April 221:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14388+0=143044%4
DETDETTigers
Urena, Jose
Urena
14461+24=146956%2
4/21Wednesday, April 216:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Yajure, Miguel
Yajure
14401+0=143944%2
DETDETTigers
Turnbull, Spencer
Turnbull
1444+14+24=148256%5
4/21Wednesday, April 212:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1439+8+3=145048%3
DETDETTigers
Fulmer, Michael
Fulmer
144510+25=146052%2
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14377+0=143036%6
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
152112+24=153364%5
4/17Saturday, April 177:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14392+0=143737%1
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
151911+24=153263%7
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1436+72=144137%6
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152219+26=152963%1
4/15Thursday, April 1512:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155927+0=153260%8
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14371+24=146040%3
4/14Wednesday, April 146:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1562+11+0=157365%1
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1435+5+24=146435%5
4/13Tuesday, April 136:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1565+8+0=157367%4
PITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14324+24=145233%8
4/12Monday, April 126:35 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1564+263=158769%6
PITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14337+24=145031%2
4/11Sunday, April 111:05 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
150220+0=148254%1
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1430+3+24=145746%7
4/10Saturday, April 106:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1505+8+2=151559%2
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14273+26=145041%8
4/8Thursday, April 81:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
150462=149655%4
PITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1428+8+22=145845%2
4/7Wednesday, April 712:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14301+0=142934%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1509+13+24=154666%11
4/6Tuesday, April 66:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14332+0=143139%1
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150619+24=151161%14
4/5Monday, April 56:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
143412=143139%3
CINCINReds
De Leon, Jose
De Leon
150519+24=151061%5
4/4Sunday, April 42:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14343+0=143135%3
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1506+9+24=153965%4
4/3Saturday, April 32:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1436+7+2=144539%1
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15047+26=152361%5
4/1Thursday, April 12:20 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
143432=142931%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1506+35+24=156569%3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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