Pirates | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Pirates have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1432, down 4 points from last week.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers62-43	—	93%	89%
Reds Reds55-50	7.0	23%	8%
Cardinals Cardinals52-52	9.5	5%	2%
Cubs Cubs51-55	11.5	2%	<1%
Pirates Pirates40-64	21.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1500	+12	+0	=1512	59%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1432	–10	+24	=1446	41%
8/2Monday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1432	–6	–2	=1424	35%
8/2Monday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1539	–31	+21	=1529	65%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1432	+7	+0	=1439	31%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1539	+15	+24	=1578	69%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 42:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1432	–10	+0	=1422	28%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1539	+24	+24	=1587	72%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1432	+13	–2	=1443	36%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1505	+12	+24	=1541	64%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	36%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1505	+4	+24	=1533	64%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1432	–6	+0	=1426	44%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Garrett	1505	–60	+24	=1469	56%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1432	+7	+0	=1439	36%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	+6	+24	=1535	64%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	–1	=1488	56%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1432	–10	+24	=1446	44%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	LeBlanc	1494	–22	+0	=1472	50%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1432	+13	+24	=1469	50%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 1212:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	55%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 1212:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–2	=1539	62%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	38%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	62%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	38%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	62%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	38%
8/16Monday, Aug. 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–4	=1427	26%
8/16Monday, Aug. 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+20	=1611	74%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	26%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+24	=1615	74%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	26%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1590	+1	+24	=1615	74%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–2	=1429	38%
8/20Friday, Aug. 208:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	62%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 217:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	38%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 217:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	62%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	38%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 222:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+24	=1513	62%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	–3	=1449	50%
8/23Monday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+21	=1452	50%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+0	=1452	50%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	50%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1444	+8	+0	=1452	50%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	50%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	–3	=1486	55%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	55%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	55%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1494	–5	+0	=1489	55%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	32%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+26	=1563	68%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	32%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1536	+1	+24	=1561	68%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–1	=1430	38%
9/2Thursday, Sept. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+22	=1515	62%
9/3Friday, Sept. 32:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	38%
9/3Friday, Sept. 32:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+24	=1517	62%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	38%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+24	=1517	62%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	38%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+24	=1517	62%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	–2	=1460	51%
9/6Monday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+22	=1453	49%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:35 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+0	=1462	51%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	49%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+0	=1462	51%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	49%
9/10Friday, Sept. 106:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	–2	=1496	55%
9/10Friday, Sept. 106:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+26	=1457	45%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+0	=1498	56%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	44%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1507	–9	+0	=1498	56%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 121:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	44%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	–1	=1506	57%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+26	=1457	43%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	57%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	43%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 1612:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	57%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 1612:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	43%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–3	=1428	40%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+23	=1500	60%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 186:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	40%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 186:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	60%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	40%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	60%
9/20Monday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–3	=1428	36%
9/20Monday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+24	=1531	64%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	36%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+24	=1531	64%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 2212:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	36%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 2212:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+24	=1531	64%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	–2	=1429	36%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	64%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	37%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	63%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	37%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	63%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+0	=1431	37%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1500	+1	+24	=1525	63%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 286:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	55%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 286:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	55%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	55%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	45%
10/1Friday, Oct. 16:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	57%
10/1Friday, Oct. 16:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	43%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	57%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	43%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	57%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1432	–1	+24	=1455	43%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1501	+18	+0	=1519	58%	2
7/31Saturday, July 317:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1431	+10	+24	=1465	42%	3
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Velasquez	1505	–23	–2	=1480	56%	0
7/30Friday, July 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1427	–15	+24	=1436	44%	7
7/29Thursday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1537	+11	+0	=1548	62%	12
7/29Thursday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1430	+8	+24	=1462	38%	0
7/28Wednesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1536	–30	+0	=1506	57%	7
7/28Wednesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1432	+2	+24	=1458	43%	3
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1533	–27	+0	=1506	57%	9
7/27Tuesday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1434	+1	+22	=1457	43%	0
7/25Sunday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1436	+8	+0	=1444	36%	1
7/25Sunday, July 254:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1528	–7	+24	=1545	64%	6
7/24Saturday, July 249:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1431	–22	+0	=1409	26%	10
7/24Saturday, July 249:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1533	+31	+24	=1588	74%	2
7/23Friday, July 239:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1429	+6	–1	=1434	35%	6
7/23Friday, July 239:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1535	–18	+22	=1539	65%	4
7/21Wednesday, July 213:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1430	+5	+0	=1435	44%	4
7/21Wednesday, July 213:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1445	+7	+24	=1476	56%	6
7/20Tuesday, July 209:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1432	+16	+0	=1448	46%	6
7/20Tuesday, July 209:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Widener	1443	+8	+24	=1475	54%	11
7/19Monday, July 199:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1433	–17	–4	=1412	43%	2
7/19Monday, July 199:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Smith	1442	–7	+24	=1459	57%	4
7/18Sunday, July 181:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1531	+3	+0	=1534	59%	7
7/18Sunday, July 181:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1434	+11	+24	=1469	41%	6
7/17Saturday, July 177:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1533	–28	+0	=1505	60%	7
7/17Saturday, July 177:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1432	–22	+24	=1434	40%	9
7/16Friday, July 167:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1535	–9	+5	=1531	60%	1
7/16Friday, July 167:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1430	+3	+29	=1462	40%	4
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1428	–15	+0	=1413	34%	6
7/11Sunday, July 111:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Loup	1536	–35	+24	=1525	66%	5
7/10Saturday, July 107:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1429	+8	+0	=1437	37%	2
7/10Saturday, July 107:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1535	–30	+24	=1529	63%	4
7/10Saturday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1426	+14	+0	=1440	34%	6
7/10Saturday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Stroman	1538	–8	+24	=1554	66%	2
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1428	+13	+0	=1441	33%	4
7/9Friday, July 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Walker	1536	+4	+26	=1566	67%	13
7/7Wednesday, July 712:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1521	–15	+0	=1506	61%	14
7/7Wednesday, July 712:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1431	–25	+24	=1430	39%	3
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1522	+14	+0	=1536	62%	1
7/6Tuesday, July 67:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1429	–3	+24	=1450	38%	2
7/5Monday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1527	–1	–2	=1524	63%	1
7/5Monday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1425	–19	+24	=1430	37%	11
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1533	+16	+0	=1549	63%	0
7/4Sunday, July 41:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1423	+11	+24	=1458	37%	2
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1531	–35	+0	=1496	57%	11
7/3Saturday, July 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1426	–2	+24	=1448	43%	2
7/2Friday, July 27:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1529	–26	+0	=1503	55%	7
7/2Friday, July 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1428	+17	+24	=1469	45%	2
7/1Thursday, July 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1527	+27	–2	=1552	68%	7
7/1Thursday, July 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1429	–27	+21	=1423	32%	2
6/30Wednesday, June 303:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1430	–3	+0	=1427	44%	2
6/30Wednesday, June 303:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1445	+3	+24	=1472	56%	6
6/29Tuesday, June 298:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1432	–19	+0	=1413	38%	0
6/29Tuesday, June 298:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1443	+28	+24	=1495	62%	8
6/28Monday, June 285:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1434	+8	–3	=1439	50%	0
6/28Monday, June 285:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1442	–25	+21	=1438	50%	2
6/27Sunday, June 272:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kranick	1431	+0	+0	=1431	42%	7
6/27Sunday, June 272:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1488	–25	+24	=1487	58%	2
6/26Saturday, June 262:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1432	+21	+0	=1453	39%	1
6/26Saturday, June 262:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1487	+22	+24	=1533	61%	3
6/25Friday, June 258:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1431	–22	+0	=1409	35%	5
6/25Friday, June 258:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1489	+4	+24	=1517	65%	4
6/24Thursday, June 248:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1427	–6	–3	=1418	39%	8
6/24Thursday, June 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1492	–19	+22	=1495	61%	2
6/23Wednesday, June 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1535	–22	+0	=1513	61%	4
6/23Wednesday, June 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1428	–17	+24	=1435	39%	3
6/22Tuesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1537	+12	–1	=1548	63%	3
6/22Tuesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1426	+7	+26	=1459	37%	6
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1509	–27	+0	=1482	52%	2
6/20Sunday, June 201:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1427	+17	+24	=1468	48%	1
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1512	–20	+0	=1492	59%	3
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1425	–21	+24	=1428	41%	6
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1513	–19	–2	=1492	58%	10
6/18Friday, June 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1424	–8	+24	=1440	42%	11
6/16Wednesday, June 164:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1424	–17	+0	=1407	37%	1
6/16Wednesday, June 164:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Espino	1510	–31	+24	=1503	63%	3
6/15Tuesday, June 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1426	+11	+0	=1437	39%	1
6/15Tuesday, June 157:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1508	–19	+24	=1513	61%	8
6/14Monday, June 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1427	+17	–3	=1441	41%	2
6/14Monday, June 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Lester	1507	–26	+24	=1505	59%	3
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1428	–28	+0	=1400	33%	2
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1522	–21	+24	=1525	67%	5
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1429	–4	+0	=1425	29%	4
6/12Saturday, June 124:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1521	+33	+24	=1578	71%	7
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1430	–20	–2	=1408	26%	4
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1521	+47	+22	=1590	74%	7
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1596	–10	+0	=1586	69%	6
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1431	–8	+24	=1447	31%	3
6/9Wednesday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1595	–14	+0	=1581	66%	2
6/9Wednesday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1431	+11	+24	=1466	34%	1
6/8Tuesday, June 87:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1594	+7	+0	=1601	68%	5
6/8Tuesday, June 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1432	+15	+26	=1473	32%	3
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1468	+11	+0	=1479	54%	3
6/6Sunday, June 61:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1433	–5	+24	=1452	46%	1
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1470	+19	+0	=1489	57%	7
6/5Saturday, June 54:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1432	–14	+24	=1442	43%	8
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Poteet	1473	–1	+0	=1472	54%	2
6/4Friday, June 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1429	–7	+24	=1446	46%	9
6/3Thursday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1474	–10	–2	=1462	50%	3
6/3Thursday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1428	+10	+23	=1461	50%	5
6/1Tuesday, June 18:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1429	–21	+0	=1408	37%	5
6/1Tuesday, June 18:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1474	+3	+24	=1501	63%	10
5/31Monday, May 318 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1430	–8	–3	=1419	38%	3
5/31Monday, May 318 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1473	+13	+22	=1508	62%	7
5/30Sunday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1441	–8	+0	=1433	50%	4
5/30Sunday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	De Jong	1431	–21	+24	=1434	50%	3
5/29Saturday, May 294:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1443	–1	+0	=1442	50%	0
5/29Saturday, May 294:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1429	–11	+24	=1442	50%	4
5/29Saturday, May 2912:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gray	1446	+10	+0	=1456	49%	0
5/29Saturday, May 2912:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1427	+11	+26	=1464	51%	7
5/27Thursday, May 2712:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1513	+17	+0	=1530	59%	5
5/27Thursday, May 2712:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1428	+12	+24	=1464	41%	3
5/26Wednesday, May 266:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Williams	1511	–24	+0	=1487	57%	4
5/26Wednesday, May 266:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1429	–13	+24	=1440	43%	1
5/25Tuesday, May 256:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1510	–5	–1	=1504	57%	4
5/25Tuesday, May 256:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1430	+5	+24	=1459	43%	3
5/23Sunday, May 231:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1432	+13	+0	=1445	36%	1
5/23Sunday, May 231:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1525	–3	+24	=1546	64%	7
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1433	–11	+0	=1422	36%	1
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wilson	1524	–27	+24	=1521	64%	6
5/21Friday, May 217:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1436	+16	+0	=1452	35%	1
5/21Friday, May 217:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1521	+15	+24	=1560	65%	20
5/20Thursday, May 207:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1435	–14	–2	=1419	35%	6
5/20Thursday, May 207:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smyly	1523	–20	+24	=1527	65%	4
5/19Wednesday, May 197:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1435	–5	+0	=1430	31%	5
5/19Wednesday, May 197:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+36	+24	=1571	69%	8
5/18Tuesday, May 187:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1437	+14	–1	=1450	39%	2
5/18Tuesday, May 187:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gant	1509	–5	+22	=1526	61%	5
5/16Sunday, May 161:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1495	–1	+0	=1494	57%	4
5/16Sunday, May 161:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1438	–16	+24	=1446	43%	1
5/15Saturday, May 156:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cueto	1496	–11	+0	=1485	51%	6
5/15Saturday, May 156:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1437	+17	+24	=1478	49%	8
5/14Friday, May 146:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Gausman	1498	+19	+0	=1517	59%	2
5/14Friday, May 146:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Yajure	1435	–9	+24	=1450	41%	3
5/13Thursday, May 136:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1497	+5	–2	=1500	58%	3
5/13Thursday, May 136:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1436	–15	+24	=1445	42%	1
5/12Wednesday, May 1212:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1501	+24	+0	=1525	60%	5
5/12Wednesday, May 1212:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1438	–7	+24	=1455	40%	1
5/11Tuesday, May 116:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Hoffman	1503	–22	+0	=1481	51%	2
5/11Tuesday, May 116:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1436	+14	+24	=1474	49%	7
5/10Monday, May 106:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1500	+1	+0	=1501	57%	14
5/10Monday, May 106:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1439	–10	+22	=1451	43%	1
5/9Sunday, May 92:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1437	+13	+0	=1450	36%	6
5/9Sunday, May 92:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1505	+19	+24	=1548	64%	5
5/8Saturday, May 82:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1438	–22	+0	=1416	37%	2
5/8Saturday, May 82:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Williams	1504	–22	+24	=1506	63%	3
5/7Friday, May 72:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1439	–6	–2	=1431	37%	2
5/7Friday, May 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Davies	1503	–3	+26	=1526	63%	3
5/5Wednesday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1439	+16	+0	=1455	28%	2
5/5Wednesday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1557	+36	+24	=1617	72%	4
5/4Tuesday, May 410:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1438	–12	+0	=1426	28%	2
5/4Tuesday, May 410:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lamet	1559	+8	+24	=1591	72%	1
5/3Monday, May 310:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1439	+12	–4	=1447	36%	0
5/3Monday, May 310:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Diaz	1558	–35	+24	=1547	64%	2
5/2Sunday, May 21:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1509	–13	+0	=1496	58%	3
5/2Sunday, May 21:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1440	–21	+24	=1443	42%	0
5/1Saturday, May 16:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1507	+29	+0	=1536	60%	12
5/1Saturday, May 16:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1442	–2	+24	=1464	40%	5
4/30Friday, April 306:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gant	1505	–6	–3	=1496	51%	7
4/30Friday, April 306:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1444	+18	+26	=1488	49%	3
4/28Wednesday, April 286:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1477	+10	+0	=1487	54%	9
4/28Wednesday, April 286:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1445	–9	+24	=1460	46%	6
4/27Tuesday, April 276:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Junis	1478	–18	–2	=1458	47%	1
4/27Tuesday, April 276:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1444	+8	+23	=1475	53%	2
4/25Sunday, April 252:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1442	–27	+0	=1415	33%	6
4/25Sunday, April 252:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1528	–12	+24	=1540	67%	2
4/24Saturday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1439	–6	+0	=1433	32%	6
4/24Saturday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1530	+10	+24	=1564	68%	2
4/23Friday, April 238:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1440	+15	–3	=1452	36%	0
4/23Friday, April 238:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1529	–3	+22	=1548	64%	2
4/22Thursday, April 221:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1438	–8	+0	=1430	44%	4
4/22Thursday, April 221:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1446	–1	+24	=1469	56%	2
4/21Wednesday, April 216:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Yajure	1440	–1	+0	=1439	44%	2
4/21Wednesday, April 216:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1444	+14	+24	=1482	56%	5
4/21Wednesday, April 212:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1439	+8	+3	=1450	48%	3
4/21Wednesday, April 212:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1445	–10	+25	=1460	52%	2
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1437	–7	+0	=1430	36%	6
4/18Sunday, April 182:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1521	–12	+24	=1533	64%	5
4/17Saturday, April 177:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1439	–2	+0	=1437	37%	1
4/17Saturday, April 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1519	–11	+24	=1532	63%	7
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1436	+7	–2	=1441	37%	6
4/16Friday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1522	–19	+26	=1529	63%	1
4/15Thursday, April 1512:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Paddack	1559	–27	+0	=1532	60%	8
4/15Thursday, April 1512:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1437	–1	+24	=1460	40%	3
4/14Wednesday, April 146:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1562	+11	+0	=1573	65%	1
4/14Wednesday, April 146:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1435	+5	+24	=1464	35%	5
4/13Tuesday, April 136:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1565	+8	+0	=1573	67%	4
4/13Tuesday, April 136:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1432	–4	+24	=1452	33%	8
4/12Monday, April 126:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1564	+26	–3	=1587	69%	6
4/12Monday, April 126:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1433	–7	+24	=1450	31%	2
4/11Sunday, April 111:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Williams	1502	–20	+0	=1482	54%	1
4/11Sunday, April 111:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1430	+3	+24	=1457	46%	7
4/10Saturday, April 106:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Davies	1505	+8	+2	=1515	59%	2
4/10Saturday, April 106:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1427	–3	+26	=1450	41%	8
4/8Thursday, April 81:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1504	–6	–2	=1496	55%	4
4/8Thursday, April 81:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1428	+8	+22	=1458	45%	2
4/7Wednesday, April 712:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1430	–1	+0	=1429	34%	4
4/7Wednesday, April 712:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1509	+13	+24	=1546	66%	11
4/6Tuesday, April 66:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1433	–2	+0	=1431	39%	1
4/6Tuesday, April 66:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1506	–19	+24	=1511	61%	14
4/5Monday, April 56:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1434	–1	–2	=1431	39%	3
4/5Monday, April 56:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	De Leon	1505	–19	+24	=1510	61%	5
4/4Sunday, April 42:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1434	–3	+0	=1431	35%	3
4/4Sunday, April 42:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Davies	1506	+9	+24	=1539	65%	4
4/3Saturday, April 32:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Anderson	1436	+7	+2	=1445	39%	1
4/3Saturday, April 32:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Arrieta	1504	–7	+26	=1523	61%	5
4/1Thursday, April 12:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1434	–3	–2	=1429	31%	5
4/1Thursday, April 12:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1506	+35	+24	=1565	69%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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