Updated Oct. 24, 2021, at 1:44 PM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds are done for the season.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BrewersBrewers95-67
CardinalsCardinals90-725.0
RedsReds83-7912.0
CubsCubs71-9124.0
PiratesPirates61-10134.0

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
149913+0=148656%6
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14265+24=144544%3
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+13+0=151459%6
PITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
1424+0+24=144841%8
10/1Friday, Oct. 16:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1504+18+0=152263%2
PITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
142013+24=143137%9
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1506+16+0=152242%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Rodon, Carlos
Rodon
1540+16+24=158058%6
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
O'Brien, Riley
O'Brien
1508212=148544%1
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Lopez, Reynaldo
Lopez
153832+22=152856%7
9/27Monday, Sept. 271:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Overton, Connor
Overton
1426+62=143039%1
CINCINReds
Sanmartin, Reiver
Sanmartin
150521+24=150861%13
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Rogers, Josh
Rogers
14842+0=148242%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1503+9+24=153658%9
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
148515+0=147045%6
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150220+24=150655%7
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
14861+0=148541%7
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1501+20+24=154559%8
9/23Thursday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
1485203=146238%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1503+17+26=154662%2
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14232+0=142134%6
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1506+10+24=154066%2
9/20Monday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
142543=141837%5
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150417+24=151163%9
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1608+5+0=161363%8
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
15057+24=152237%5
9/18Saturday, Sept. 182:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1606+38+0=164464%5
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1507+17+24=154836%1
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1608+182=162462%1
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+10+22=153738%3
9/16Thursday, Sept. 1612:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1504+7+0=151158%1
PITPITPirates
Overton, Connor
Overton
1423+7+24=145442%0
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150514+0=149157%4
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14213+24=144243%5
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1507+01=150659%5
PITPITPirates
Peters, Dillon
Peters
14205+26=144141%6
9/12Sunday, Sept. 122:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1508+14+0=152253%0
STLSTLCardinals
Happ, J.A.
Happ
150024+24=150047%2
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1509+10+0=151949%4
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1498+6+24=152851%6
9/10Friday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1508+4+0=151252%4
STLSTLCardinals
Lester, Jon
Lester
150026+24=149848%2
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
151017+0=149347%1
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1470+16+24=151053%4
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
15092+0=150752%4
CHCCHCCubs
Sampson, Adrian
Sampson
14713+24=149248%3
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1510+152=152353%3
CHCCHCCubs
Steele, Justin
Steele
1470+7+24=150147%4
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Mize, Casey
Mize
1467+11+0=147840%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1512+11+24=154760%1
9/4Saturday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Boyd, Matthew
Boyd
1468+2+0=147040%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1511+9+24=154460%7
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
146442=145840%15
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
151513+26=152860%5
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Happ, J.A.
Happ
150117+0=148441%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1512+14+24=155059%12
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 11:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1500+8+2=151045%5
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1514+4+26=154455%4
8/30Monday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Lester, Jon
Lester
1498362=146038%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+7+21=154362%1
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1517+5+0=152258%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
146828+24=146442%2
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
15198+0=151149%1
MIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1465+25+24=151451%6
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1516+13=151452%6
MIAMIAMarlins
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
1468+8+24=150048%0
8/26Thursday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1514+9+0=152347%5
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
154824+24=154853%1
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1516+6+0=152240%1
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1546+22+24=159260%4
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1517+4+0=152138%4
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1545+33+26=160462%7
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Alcantara, Sandy
Alcantara
1468+21+0=148945%1
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
151612+24=152855%3
8/21Saturday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Thompson, Zach
Thompson
1470+6+0=147640%4
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1514+5+24=154360%7
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
1471+0+0=147140%3
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1513+7+24=154460%5
8/19Thursday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Neidert, Nick
Neidert
1472143=145538%1
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1512+6+24=154262%6
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 1812:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Sampson, Adrian
Sampson
14679+0=145837%7
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1515+11+24=155063%1
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1466+21+0=148744%2
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
151611+24=152956%1
8/16Monday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Steele, Justin
Steele
146813=146440%5
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1514+2+22=153860%14
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1512+9+0=152146%7
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1510+16+24=155054%4
8/14Saturday, Aug. 144:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1515+5+0=152055%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Moore, Matt
Moore
150743+24=148845%6
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1512+73=151641%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1510+48+24=158259%1
8/12Thursday, Aug. 125:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150814+0=149441%12
ATLATLBraves
Muller, Kyle
Muller
15415+24=156059%3
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1509+6+0=151548%6
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
154033+24=153152%8
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1510+103=151746%2
ATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
153922+26=154354%3
8/9Monday, Aug. 96:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1513+152=152655%3
CLECLEIndians
Hentges, Sam
Hentges
149929+24=149445%9
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Wilson, Bryse
Wilson
1424+5+0=142935%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1512+3+24=153965%3
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
14268+0=141837%3
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
151020+24=151463%11
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1429+14+0=144337%0
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1508+3+24=153563%10
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Crowe, Wil
Crowe
1429112=141633%4
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1507+11+24=154267%7
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 412:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Barnes, Charlie
Barnes
149115+0=147640%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+16+24=154660%6
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1490+18+0=150846%7
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1508+6+23=153754%5
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150525+0=148039%7
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
1530+4+24=155861%1
7/31Saturday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1505+4+0=150944%4
NYMNYMMets
Hill, Rich
Hill
15291+24=155256%5
7/30Friday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+103=151042%6
NYMNYMMets
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
1531+12+24=156758%2
7/29Thursday, July 292:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1501+18+0=151949%7
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1491+10+24=152551%4
7/28Wednesday, July 288:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1499+5+0=150447%8
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1494+8+24=152653%2
7/27Tuesday, July 278:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149728+0=146942%7
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1496+8+24=152858%4
7/26Monday, July 268:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1498+92=150544%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1495+26+24=154556%6
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
149326+0=146739%10
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+18+24=154261%6
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Woodford, Jake
Woodford
149410+0=148443%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+13+24=153657%5
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
1495272=146641%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1498+5+26=152959%6
7/21Wednesday, July 2112:35 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15336+0=152754%7
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150124+24=150146%0
7/20Tuesday, July 207:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Stock, Robert
Stock
153441+0=149345%3
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1500+6+24=153055%4
7/19Monday, July 197:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Eickhoff, Jerad
Eickhoff
1532372=149348%15
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150220+24=150652%11
7/18Sunday, July 181:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1532+27+0=155952%8
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+19+24=154848%0
7/17Saturday, July 177:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1530+39+0=156955%7
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+7+24=153745%4
7/16Friday, July 167:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152824+5=150945%11
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1509+5+29=154355%6
7/11Sunday, July 112:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1507+7+0=151439%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1530+40+24=159461%1
7/10Saturday, July 107:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150524+0=148138%4
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1531+14+24=156962%3
7/9Friday, July 98:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1504+1+0=150547%2
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
153333+24=152453%0
7/8Thursday, July 88:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1505+62=150947%3
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
153124+21=152853%5
7/7Wednesday, July 72:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1504+19+0=152355%5
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1454+9+24=148745%2
7/6Tuesday, July 68:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+5+0=151057%6
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
145314+24=146343%7
7/5Monday, July 58:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1503273=147347%6
KCKCRoyals
Minor, Mike
Minor
1455+14+24=149353%2
7/4Sunday, July 41:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1506+23+0=152950%2
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1502+2+24=152850%3
7/3Saturday, July 34:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1507+7+0=151447%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+8+24=153353%3
7/2Friday, July 27:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1507+7+0=151446%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+19+24=154354%2
7/1Thursday, July 17:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156416+0=154853%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+5+24=152847%5
6/30Wednesday, June 307:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1563+16+0=157960%7
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150018+24=150640%5
6/29Tuesday, June 297:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Stammen, Craig
Stammen
1562252=153554%5
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
150120+24=150546%4
6/28Monday, June 286:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
1504253=147643%4
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1498+2+24=152457%12
6/27Sunday, June 271:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Muller, Kyle
Muller
152023+0=149745%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+8+24=153355%0
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1522+13+0=153552%1
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14991+24=152248%4
6/25Friday, June 257:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
152021+0=149949%3
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150018+24=150651%2
6/24Thursday, June 247:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Chavez, Jesse
Chavez
1522323=148749%3
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
149927+23=149551%5
6/22Tuesday, June 221:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1497+1+0=149846%10
MINMINTwins
Ober, Bailey
Ober
15044+24=152454%7
6/21Monday, June 218:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1498+124=150649%5
MINMINTwins
Happ, J.A.
Happ
150311+21=151351%7
6/20Sunday, June 204:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+0+0=149937%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1559+7+24=159063%3
6/19Saturday, June 197:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
15009+0=149141%5
SDSDPadres
Diaz, Miguel
Diaz
155829+24=155359%7
6/18Friday, June 1810:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
150223+0=147938%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155719+24=156262%8
6/17Thursday, June 178:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150324=149737%4
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1556+11+21=158863%6
6/16Wednesday, June 162:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+6+0=150744%2
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1519+8+24=155156%1
6/15Tuesday, June 158:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
15005+0=149547%2
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
152028+24=151653%1
6/14Monday, June 148:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1497102=148547%10
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152341+24=150653%2
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1439+1+0=144042%2
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
149622+24=149858%6
6/12Saturday, June 124:15 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1441+31+0=147244%3
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14931+24=151656%10
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1443153=142536%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1492+8+24=152464%11
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1519+9+0=152852%7
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14947+24=151148%2
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
152027+0=149349%3
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149214+24=150251%7
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
151825+0=149344%5
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1494+19+24=153756%1
6/6Sunday, June 62:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14933+0=149045%8
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
1501+3+24=152855%7
6/5Saturday, June 52:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1491+8+0=149951%5
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
150332+24=149549%2
6/4Friday, June 48:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14907+0=148343%6
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1504+0+24=152857%4
6/3Thursday, June 38:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
148814+0=147442%4
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1506+6+20=153258%2
6/1Tuesday, June 17:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1495+22+0=151747%17
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1493+24+24=154153%3
5/31Monday, May 312:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
1498133=148246%1
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14893+22=150854%11
5/30Sunday, May 302:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1487+4+0=149144%5
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15176+24=153556%1
5/29Saturday, May 292:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14905+0=148542%2
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1515+1+24=154058%10
5/28Friday, May 282:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1490173=147039%0
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1514+14+22=155061%1
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1488+23+0=151142%3
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1514+26+24=156458%0
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
148916+0=147344%3
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151320+24=151756%5
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1488+2+0=149037%2
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1514+41+26=158163%1
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1508+4+0=151250%9
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14901+24=151350%4
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
150718+0=148943%4
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1491+23+24=153857%3
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1509201=148849%4
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
148918+24=149551%9
5/20Thursday, May 2012:35 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
150215+0=148745%19
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1494+7+24=152555%4
5/19Wednesday, May 196:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1500+22+0=152251%4
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14964+24=151649%0
5/18Tuesday, May 186:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1498+6+0=150448%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14982+24=152052%2
5/17Monday, May 176:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
1496162=147840%6
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+26+21=154760%3
5/16Sunday, May 163:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
149919+0=148053%7
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14468+24=146247%6
5/15Saturday, May 158:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1498+5+0=150358%6
COLCOLRockies
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
144725+24=144642%5
5/14Friday, May 148:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1500+2+0=150253%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1445+14+24=148347%9
5/13Thursday, May 138:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1502+23=150158%8
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
144324+24=144342%13
5/12Wednesday, May 1212:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1501+24+0=152560%5
PITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14387+24=145540%1
5/11Tuesday, May 116:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150322+0=148151%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1436+14+24=147449%7
5/10Monday, May 106:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1500+1+0=150157%14
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143910+22=145143%1
5/8Saturday, May 86:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1502+6+0=150845%2
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
1516+3+24=154355%9
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
15009+0=149142%3
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1518+11+21=155058%0
5/5Wednesday, May 512:35 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
152511+0=151446%0
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1499+21+24=154454%1
5/4Tuesday, May 46:40 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
152223+0=149948%9
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150217+26=151152%0
5/2Sunday, May 21:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
149813+0=148543%12
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1502+8+24=153457%13
5/1Saturday, May 14:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
14973+0=149444%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1503+8+24=153556%2
4/30Friday, April 307:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1499+52=150248%6
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150110+22=151352%8
4/28Wednesday, April 284:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+18+0=152135%0
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1599+10+24=163365%8
4/27Tuesday, April 2710:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150217+0=148530%6
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1600+7+24=163170%5
4/26Monday, April 2610:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1500+74=150335%5
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
160217+24=160965%3
4/25Sunday, April 252:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1501+11+0=151244%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1504+29+24=155756%5
4/24Saturday, April 242:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150211+0=149146%0
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
15027+24=151954%2
4/23Friday, April 238:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+232=152450%4
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1501+1+23=152550%5
4/22Thursday, April 2212:35 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
1489+2+0=149147%14
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150521+24=150853%11
4/21Wednesday, April 216:50 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1487+3+0=149044%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1507+0+24=153156%5
4/20Tuesday, April 206:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1486+34+0=152046%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1508+15+26=154954%4
4/18Sunday, April 181:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1511+47+0=155855%6
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151010+24=152445%3
4/17Saturday, April 174:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
151212+0=150042%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1509+26+24=155958%3
4/16Friday, April 167:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Allen, Logan
Allen
1514322=148046%3
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150622+22=150654%10
4/14Wednesday, April 143:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
15083+0=150549%0
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1484+2+24=151051%3
4/13Tuesday, April 139:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1509+17+0=152650%6
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1483+18+24=152550%7
4/12Monday, April 129:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1507133=149149%3
SFSFGiants
Sanchez, Aaron
Sanchez
148512+24=149751%0
4/11Sunday, April 114:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
De Leon, Jose
De Leon
151019+0=149147%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1484+1+24=150953%7
4/10Saturday, April 108:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
151220+0=149249%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Riley
Smith
14828+24=149851%8
4/9Friday, April 99:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151172=150250%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
14832+21=150250%5
4/7Wednesday, April 712:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14301+0=142934%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1509+13+24=154666%11
4/6Tuesday, April 66:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14332+0=143139%1
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150619+24=151161%14
4/5Monday, April 56:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
143412=143139%3
CINCINReds
De Leon, Jose
De Leon
150519+24=151061%5
4/4Sunday, April 41:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
150416+0=148848%1
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150222+24=150452%12
4/3Saturday, April 34:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1505+7+2=151449%6
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
15004+26=152251%9
4/1Thursday, April 14:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1503+312=153247%11
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1503+24+24=155153%6

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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