Updated Jul. 31, 2021, at 11:56 PM

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds have a 23% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1505, up 5 points from last week.

NL Central standings

Games backChance to
make playoffs
Make playoffsChance to
win division
Win division
BrewersBrewers62-4393%89%
RedsReds55-507.023%8%
CardinalsCardinals52-529.55%2%
CubsCubs51-5511.52%<1%
PiratesPirates40-6421.5<1%<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
8/1Sunday, Aug. 11:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150525+0=148039%
NYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
1530+4+24=155861%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Maeda, Kenta
Maeda
1491+18+0=150946%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1505+6+23=153454%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 412:35 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Pitcher TBD
14912+0=148942%
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+16+24=154558%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1432+132=144336%
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+12+24=154164%
8/6Friday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+0=143136%
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1505+4+24=153364%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kranick, Max
Kranick
14326+0=142644%
CINCINReds
Garrett, Amir
Garrett
150560+24=146956%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 81:10 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
1432+7+0=143936%
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1505+6+24=153564%
8/9Monday, Aug. 96:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+162=151953%
CLECLEIndians
Mejia, J.C.
Mejia
150029+24=149547%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 107:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+123=151446%
ATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
153418+26=154254%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 117:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1505+4+0=150947%
ATLATLBraves
Toussaint, Touki
Toussaint
153430+24=152853%
8/12Thursday, Aug. 125:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150743%
ATLATLBraves
Pitcher TBD
15345+24=155357%
8/13Friday, Aug. 137:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+23=150447%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+24=152553%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 144:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150747%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+24=152553%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 151:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150747%
PHIPHIPhillies
Pitcher TBD
1500+1+24=152553%
8/16Monday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1491+23=149045%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+22=152955%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1491+2+0=149345%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 1812:35 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1491+2+0=149345%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+13=147442%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153158%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+0=147742%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153158%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+0=147742%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153158%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+0=147742%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153158%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150741%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+2+26=156759%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150742%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+2+24=156558%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150742%
MILMILBrewers
Pitcher TBD
1539+2+24=156558%
8/27Friday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+23=150450%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150150%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 286:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150751%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150149%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 291:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150751%
MIAMIAMarlins
Pitcher TBD
1476+1+24=150149%
8/30Monday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
149452=148744%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+21=152856%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 316:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+0=148944%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153156%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+0=148944%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153156%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
146422=146040%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+26=153360%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
14642+0=146240%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153160%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Pitcher TBD
14642+0=146240%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153160%
9/6Monday, Sept. 62:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+22=150548%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1491+2+24=151752%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150749%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1491+2+24=151751%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150749%
CHCCHCCubs
Pitcher TBD
1491+2+24=151751%
9/10Friday, Sept. 108:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150749%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+24=151351%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150749%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+24=151351%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 122:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150749%
STLSTLCardinals
Pitcher TBD
14945+24=151351%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 146:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+21=150657%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+26=145743%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150757%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145543%
9/16Thursday, Sept. 1612:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150757%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145543%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+12=158959%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+22=152941%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 187:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+0=159159%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153141%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Pitcher TBD
1590+1+0=159159%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153141%
9/20Monday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
143213=142836%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153164%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+0=143136%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153164%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 2212:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+0=143136%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153164%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
150793=149545%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/24Friday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149845%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149845%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 261:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Pitcher TBD
15079+0=149845%
CINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+24=153155%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150742%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1536+1+24=156158%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 298:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150742%
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Pitcher TBD
1536+1+24=156158%
10/1Friday, Oct. 16:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150757%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145543%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 26:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150757%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145543%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Pitcher TBD
1505+2+0=150757%
PITPITPirates
Pitcher TBD
14321+24=145543%

Team rating

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
7/31Saturday, July 317:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1505+4+0=150944%4
NYMNYMMets
Hill, Rich
Hill
15291+24=155256%5
7/30Friday, July 307:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+103=151042%6
NYMNYMMets
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
1531+12+24=156758%2
7/29Thursday, July 292:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1501+18+0=151949%7
CHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1491+10+24=152551%4
7/28Wednesday, July 288:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1499+5+0=150447%8
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1494+8+24=152653%2
7/27Tuesday, July 278:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149728+0=146942%7
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1496+8+24=152858%4
7/26Monday, July 268:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1498+92=150544%5
CHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1495+26+24=154556%6
7/25Sunday, July 251:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
149326+0=146739%10
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+18+24=154261%6
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Woodford, Jake
Woodford
149410+0=148443%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+13+24=153657%5
7/23Friday, July 237:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
LeBlanc, Wade
LeBlanc
1495272=146641%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1498+5+26=152959%6
7/21Wednesday, July 2112:35 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
15336+0=152754%7
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150124+24=150146%0
7/20Tuesday, July 207:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Stock, Robert
Stock
153441+0=149345%3
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1500+6+24=153055%4
7/19Monday, July 197:10 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Eickhoff, Jerad
Eickhoff
1532372=149348%15
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150220+24=150652%11
7/18Sunday, July 181:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1532+27+0=155952%8
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1505+19+24=154848%0
7/17Saturday, July 177:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1530+39+0=156955%7
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1506+7+24=153745%4
7/16Friday, July 167:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
152824+5=150945%11
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1509+5+29=154355%6
7/11Sunday, July 112:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1507+7+0=151439%3
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1530+40+24=159461%1
7/10Saturday, July 107:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150524+0=148138%4
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1531+14+24=156962%3
7/9Friday, July 98:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1504+1+0=150547%2
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
153333+24=152453%0
7/8Thursday, July 88:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1505+62=150947%3
MILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
153124+21=152853%5
7/7Wednesday, July 72:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1504+19+0=152355%5
KCKCRoyals
Singer, Brady
Singer
1454+9+24=148745%2
7/6Tuesday, July 68:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1505+5+0=151057%6
KCKCRoyals
Bubic, Kris
Bubic
145314+24=146343%7
7/5Monday, July 58:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1503273=147347%6
KCKCRoyals
Minor, Mike
Minor
1455+14+24=149353%2
7/4Sunday, July 41:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Hendricks, Kyle
Hendricks
1506+23+0=152950%2
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1502+2+24=152850%3
7/3Saturday, July 34:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1507+7+0=151447%2
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+8+24=153353%3
7/2Friday, July 27:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Mills, Alec
Mills
1507+7+0=151446%1
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+19+24=154354%2
7/1Thursday, July 17:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Weathers, Ryan
Weathers
156416+0=154853%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+5+24=152847%5
6/30Wednesday, June 307:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1563+16+0=157960%7
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150018+24=150640%5
6/29Tuesday, June 297:10 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Stammen, Craig
Stammen
1562252=153554%5
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
150120+24=150546%4
6/28Monday, June 286:40 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Howard, Spencer
Howard
1504253=147643%4
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1498+2+24=152457%12
6/27Sunday, June 271:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Muller, Kyle
Muller
152023+0=149745%4
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+8+24=153355%0
6/26Saturday, June 264:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Anderson, Ian
Anderson
1522+13+0=153552%1
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14991+24=152248%4
6/25Friday, June 257:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Smyly, Drew
Smyly
152021+0=149949%3
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
150018+24=150651%2
6/24Thursday, June 247:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Chavez, Jesse
Chavez
1522323=148749%3
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
149927+23=149551%5
6/22Tuesday, June 221:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1497+1+0=149846%10
MINMINTwins
Ober, Bailey
Ober
15044+24=152454%7
6/21Monday, June 218:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1498+124=150649%5
MINMINTwins
Happ, J.A.
Happ
150311+21=151351%7
6/20Sunday, June 204:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1499+0+0=149937%2
SDSDPadres
Lamet, Dinelson
Lamet
1559+7+24=159063%3
6/19Saturday, June 197:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
15009+0=149141%5
SDSDPadres
Diaz, Miguel
Diaz
155829+24=155359%7
6/18Friday, June 1810:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
150223+0=147938%2
SDSDPadres
Paddack, Chris
Paddack
155719+24=156262%8
6/17Thursday, June 178:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150324=149737%4
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1556+11+21=158863%6
6/16Wednesday, June 162:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1501+6+0=150744%2
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1519+8+24=155156%1
6/15Tuesday, June 158:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
15005+0=149547%2
MILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
152028+24=151653%1
6/14Monday, June 148:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1497102=148547%10
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152341+24=150653%2
6/13Sunday, June 131:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
1439+1+0=144042%2
CINCINReds
Santillan, Tony
Santillan
149622+24=149858%6
6/12Saturday, June 124:15 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1441+31+0=147244%3
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14931+24=151656%10
6/11Friday, June 117:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Freeland, Kyle
Freeland
1443153=142536%5
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1492+8+24=152464%11
6/10Thursday, June 1012:35 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1519+9+0=152852%7
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14947+24=151148%2
6/9Wednesday, June 97:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
152027+0=149349%3
CINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
149214+24=150251%7
6/8Tuesday, June 87:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
151825+0=149344%5
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1494+19+24=153756%1
6/6Sunday, June 62:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14933+0=149045%8
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
1501+3+24=152855%7
6/5Saturday, June 52:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1491+8+0=149951%5
STLSTLCardinals
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
150332+24=149549%2
6/4Friday, June 48:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14907+0=148343%6
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1504+0+24=152857%4
6/3Thursday, June 38:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
148814+0=147442%4
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1506+6+20=153258%2
6/1Tuesday, June 17:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1495+22+0=151747%17
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1493+24+24=154153%3
5/31Monday, May 312:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Velasquez, Vince
Velasquez
1498133=148246%1
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14893+22=150854%11
5/30Sunday, May 302:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1487+4+0=149144%5
CHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
15176+24=153556%1
5/29Saturday, May 292:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14905+0=148542%2
CHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
1515+1+24=154058%10
5/28Friday, May 282:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gutierrez, Vladimir
Gutierrez
1490173=147039%0
CHCCHCCubs
Alzolay, Adbert
Alzolay
1514+14+22=155061%1
5/27Thursday, May 277:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1488+23+0=151142%3
WSHWSHNationals
Strasburg, Stephen
Strasburg
1514+26+24=156458%0
5/26Wednesday, May 267:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
148916+0=147344%3
WSHWSHNationals
Ross, Joe
Ross
151320+24=151756%5
5/25Tuesday, May 257:05 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1488+2+0=149037%2
WSHWSHNationals
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1514+41+26=158163%1
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1508+4+0=151250%9
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14901+24=151350%4
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Anderson, Brett
Anderson
150718+0=148943%4
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1491+23+24=153857%3
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. EasternMILMILBrewers
Houser, Adrian
Houser
1509201=148849%4
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
148918+24=149551%9
5/20Thursday, May 2012:35 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
150215+0=148745%19
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1494+7+24=152555%4
5/19Wednesday, May 196:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1500+22+0=152251%4
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
14964+24=151649%0
5/18Tuesday, May 186:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
DeSclafani, Anthony
DeSclafani
1498+6+0=150448%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
14982+24=152052%2
5/17Monday, May 176:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Webb, Logan
Webb
1496162=147840%6
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1500+26+21=154760%3
5/16Sunday, May 163:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
149919+0=148053%7
COLCOLRockies
Senzatela, Antonio
Senzatela
14468+24=146247%6
5/15Saturday, May 158:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1498+5+0=150358%6
COLCOLRockies
Chacin, Jhoulys
Chacin
144725+24=144642%5
5/14Friday, May 148:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1500+2+0=150253%6
COLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1445+14+24=148347%9
5/13Thursday, May 138:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1502+23=150158%8
COLCOLRockies
Gonzalez, Chi Chi
Gonzalez
144324+24=144342%13
5/12Wednesday, May 1212:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1501+24+0=152560%5
PITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14387+24=145540%1
5/11Tuesday, May 116:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150322+0=148151%2
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
1436+14+24=147449%7
5/10Monday, May 106:35 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1500+1+0=150157%14
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
143910+22=145143%1
5/8Saturday, May 86:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1502+6+0=150845%2
CLECLEIndians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
1516+3+24=154355%9
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
15009+0=149142%3
CLECLEIndians
Plesac, Zach
Plesac
1518+11+21=155058%0
5/5Wednesday, May 512:35 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Keuchel, Dallas
Keuchel
152511+0=151446%0
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1499+21+24=154454%1
5/4Tuesday, May 46:40 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Cease, Dylan
Cease
152223+0=149948%9
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150217+26=151152%0
5/2Sunday, May 21:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Williams, Trevor
Williams
149813+0=148543%12
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1502+8+24=153457%13
5/1Saturday, May 14:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Davies, Zach
Davies
14973+0=149444%3
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1503+8+24=153556%2
4/30Friday, April 307:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Arrieta, Jake
Arrieta
1499+52=150248%6
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150110+22=151352%8
4/28Wednesday, April 284:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+18+0=152135%0
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1599+10+24=163365%8
4/27Tuesday, April 2710:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150217+0=148530%6
LADLADDodgers
Buehler, Walker
Buehler
1600+7+24=163170%5
4/26Monday, April 2610:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1500+74=150335%5
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
160217+24=160965%3
4/25Sunday, April 252:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1501+11+0=151244%2
STLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1504+29+24=155756%5
4/24Saturday, April 242:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150211+0=149146%0
STLSTLCardinals
Gant, John
Gant
15027+24=151954%2
4/23Friday, April 238:15 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1503+232=152450%4
STLSTLCardinals
Kim, Kwang Hyun
Kim
1501+1+23=152550%5
4/22Thursday, April 2212:35 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
1489+2+0=149147%14
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150521+24=150853%11
4/21Wednesday, April 216:50 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1487+3+0=149044%8
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
1507+0+24=153156%5
4/20Tuesday, April 206:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1486+34+0=152046%5
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1508+15+26=154954%4
4/18Sunday, April 181:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1511+47+0=155855%6
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
151010+24=152445%3
4/17Saturday, April 174:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
151212+0=150042%2
CINCINReds
Gray, Sonny
Gray
1509+26+24=155958%3
4/16Friday, April 167:10 p.m. EasternCLECLEIndians
Allen, Logan
Allen
1514322=148046%3
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150622+22=150654%10
4/14Wednesday, April 143:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
15083+0=150549%0
SFSFGiants
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
1484+2+24=151051%3
4/13Tuesday, April 139:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1509+17+0=152650%6
SFSFGiants
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1483+18+24=152550%7
4/12Monday, April 129:45 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
1507133=149149%3
SFSFGiants
Sanchez, Aaron
Sanchez
148512+24=149751%0
4/11Sunday, April 114:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
De Leon, Jose
De Leon
151019+0=149147%0
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Weaver, Luke
Weaver
1484+1+24=150953%7
4/10Saturday, April 108:10 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
151220+0=149249%3
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Smith, Riley
Smith
14828+24=149851%8
4/9Friday, April 99:40 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
151172=150250%6
ARIARIDiamondbacks
Widener, Taylor
Widener
14832+21=150250%5
4/7Wednesday, April 712:35 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Kuhl, Chad
Kuhl
14301+0=142934%4
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1509+13+24=154666%11
4/6Tuesday, April 66:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Cahill, Trevor
Cahill
14332+0=143139%1
CINCINReds
Miley, Wade
Miley
150619+24=151161%14
4/5Monday, April 56:40 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
143412=143139%3
CINCINReds
De Leon, Jose
De Leon
150519+24=151061%5
4/4Sunday, April 41:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Martinez, Carlos
Martinez
150416+0=148848%1
CINCINReds
Hoffman, Jeff
Hoffman
150222+24=150452%12
4/3Saturday, April 34:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1505+7+2=151449%6
CINCINReds
Mahle, Tyler
Mahle
15004+26=152251%9
4/1Thursday, April 14:10 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Flaherty, Jack
Flaherty
1503+312=153247%11
CINCINReds
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1503+24+24=155153%6

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

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