Twins | 2021 MLB Predictions

The Twins have a <1% chance of making the playoffs.

Their team rating is 1491, down 4 points from last week.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
White Sox White Sox61-44	—	95%	95%
Indians Indians51-50	8.0	8%	5%
Tigers Tigers50-57	12.0	<1%	<1%
Twins Twins44-61	17.0	<1%	<1%
Royals Royals45-58	15.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
8/1Sunday, Aug. 12:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1491	+13	+0	=1504	45%
8/1Sunday, Aug. 12:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1494	+24	+24	=1542	55%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1491	+18	+0	=1509	46%
8/3Tuesday, Aug. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1505	+6	+23	=1534	54%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 412:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	42%
8/4Wednesday, Aug. 412:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1505	+16	+24	=1545	58%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–3	=1486	36%
8/5Thursday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1570	–3	+21	=1588	64%
8/6Friday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1491	–6	+0	=1485	36%
8/6Friday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Greinke	1570	–5	+24	=1589	64%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1491	+13	+0	=1504	36%
8/7Saturday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1570	+9	+24	=1603	64%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1491	+18	+0	=1509	37%
8/8Sunday, Aug. 82:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	McCullers Jr.	1570	+5	+24	=1599	63%
8/9Monday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1536	+14	–2	=1548	55%
8/9Monday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+21	=1510	45%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1536	+9	+0	=1545	55%
8/10Tuesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	45%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 111:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1536	+25	+0	=1561	57%
8/11Wednesday, Aug. 111:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1491	–6	+24	=1509	43%
8/13Friday, Aug. 138:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	–3	=1551	55%
8/13Friday, Aug. 138:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+26	=1515	45%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	+0	=1554	56%
8/14Saturday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	44%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 152:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	+0	=1554	56%
8/15Sunday, Aug. 152:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	44%
8/16Monday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–3	=1492	47%
8/16Monday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
8/17Tuesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 181:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
8/18Wednesday, Aug. 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–3	=1486	38%
8/19Thursday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+24	=1568	62%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	39%
8/20Friday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+24	=1568	61%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 211:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	39%
8/21Saturday, Aug. 211:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+24	=1568	61%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	39%
8/22Sunday, Aug. 221:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1547	–3	+24	=1568	61%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	41%
8/24Tuesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+26	=1556	59%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	41%
8/25Wednesday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+24	=1554	59%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	41%
8/26Thursday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1527	+3	+24	=1554	59%
8/27Friday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	–2	=1539	54%
8/27Friday, Aug. 278:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+21	=1510	46%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/28Saturday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1539	+2	+0	=1541	54%
8/29Sunday, Aug. 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
8/30Monday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–3	=1486	50%
8/30Monday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+24	=1486	50%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	47%
8/31Tuesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+21	=1510	53%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+0	=1493	47%
9/1Wednesday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–1	=1488	37%
9/3Friday, Sept. 37:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	+24	=1578	63%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	38%
9/4Saturday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	+24	=1578	62%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	38%
9/5Sunday, Sept. 51:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1560	–6	+24	=1578	62%
9/6Monday, Sept. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–3	=1486	46%
9/6Monday, Sept. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+21	=1516	54%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/7Tuesday, Sept. 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	54%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/8Wednesday, Sept. 86:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	54%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/9Thursday, Sept. 96:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+24	=1519	54%
9/10Friday, Sept. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	–3	=1450	41%
9/10Friday, Sept. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+21	=1510	59%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+0	=1453	41%
9/11Saturday, Sept. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	59%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 122:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+0	=1453	41%
9/12Sunday, Sept. 122:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	59%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 143:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	–1	=1494	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 143:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+26	=1515	53%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
9/14Tuesday, Sept. 147:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	—	1500	–5	+0	=1495	47%
9/15Wednesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	53%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–1	=1488	39%
9/17Friday, Sept. 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	+26	=1569	61%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	39%
9/18Saturday, Sept. 183:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	+24	=1567	61%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	39%
9/19Sunday, Sept. 191:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	+24	=1567	61%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/21Tuesday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+25	=1518	54%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	46%
9/22Wednesday, Sept. 227:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1491	+2	+24	=1517	54%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	–3	=1540	54%
9/23Thursday, Sept. 237:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+22	=1511	46%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	+0	=1543	54%
9/24Friday, Sept. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	+0	=1543	54%
9/25Saturday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1535	+8	+0	=1543	54%
9/26Sunday, Sept. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	46%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	–1	=1461	42%
9/28Tuesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+26	=1515	58%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+0	=1462	43%
9/29Wednesday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	57%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1464	–2	+0	=1462	43%
9/30Thursday, Sept. 307:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+24	=1513	57%
10/1Friday, Oct. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	–2	=1487	52%
10/1Friday, Oct. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	48%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	52%
10/2Saturday, Oct. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	48%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1491	–2	+0	=1489	52%
10/3Sunday, Oct. 33:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	–4	+24	=1477	48%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
7/31Saturday, July 317:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1488	–8	+0	=1480	46%	8
7/31Saturday, July 317:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1497	–11	+24	=1510	54%	1
7/30Friday, July 308:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Jax	1490	–17	+0	=1473	47%	1
7/30Friday, July 308:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	LeBlanc	1495	–26	+24	=1493	53%	5
7/28Wednesday, July 281:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Peralta	1464	+0	+0	=1464	46%	17
7/28Wednesday, July 281:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1492	–21	+24	=1495	54%	14
7/27Tuesday, July 278:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1463	–14	+0	=1449	38%	6
7/27Tuesday, July 278:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1493	+15	+24	=1532	62%	5
7/26Monday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Manning	1463	–14	–2	=1447	39%	5
7/26Monday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1493	+11	+24	=1528	61%	6
7/25Sunday, July 252:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Barria	1500	–8	+0	=1492	48%	6
7/25Sunday, July 252:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1495	–14	+24	=1505	52%	2
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1499	–7	+0	=1492	42%	2
7/24Saturday, July 247:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1496	+26	+24	=1546	58%	1
7/23Friday, July 238:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Cobb	1500	+7	+0	=1507	51%	4
7/23Friday, July 238:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1495	–18	+24	=1501	49%	5
7/22Thursday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1499	–1	–2	=1496	45%	3
7/22Thursday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1496	+16	+22	=1534	55%	2
7/21Wednesday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1493	+11	+0	=1504	43%	7
7/21Wednesday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1546	–19	+24	=1551	57%	2
7/20Tuesday, July 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1495	–12	+0	=1483	41%	5
7/20Tuesday, July 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1545	–24	+24	=1545	59%	9
7/19Monday, July 198:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1496	+29	+0	=1525	50%	3
7/19Monday, July 198:35 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lopez	1543	–43	+24	=1524	50%	5
7/19Monday, July 195:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Jax	1495	–22	–2	=1471	33%	3
7/19Monday, July 195:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1545	+22	+24	=1591	67%	2
7/18Sunday, July 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1497	–13	+0	=1484	50%	0
7/18Sunday, July 181:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Peralta	1458	–1	+24	=1481	50%	7
7/17Saturday, July 176:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1499	+15	+0	=1514	57%	4
7/17Saturday, July 176:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1457	–15	+24	=1466	43%	5
7/17Saturday, July 171:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Barnes	1500	–16	+4	=1488	55%	0
7/17Saturday, July 171:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1455	–27	+28	=1456	45%	1
7/11Sunday, July 112:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Peralta	1456	–2	+0	=1454	36%	9
7/11Sunday, July 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1499	+28	+24	=1551	64%	12
7/10Saturday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Funkhouser	1458	–6	+0	=1452	41%	4
7/10Saturday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1497	–7	+24	=1514	59%	9
7/9Friday, July 98:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Manning	1459	–21	+0	=1438	37%	2
7/9Friday, July 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1496	+12	+24	=1532	63%	4
7/8Thursday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1460	+5	–3	=1462	44%	3
7/8Thursday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1495	–14	+24	=1505	56%	5
7/7Wednesday, July 71:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1535	+26	+0	=1561	54%	6
7/7Wednesday, July 71:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1497	+15	+24	=1536	46%	1
7/6Tuesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1533	+12	+0	=1545	50%	4
7/6Tuesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1499	+24	+24	=1547	50%	1
7/5Monday, July 57 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1535	–17	–3	=1515	51%	5
7/5Monday, July 57 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1497	–13	+22	=1506	49%	8
7/4Sunday, July 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1495	+8	+0	=1503	55%	6
7/4Sunday, July 42:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1457	–8	+24	=1473	45%	2
7/3Saturday, July 34:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Jax	1497	–13	+0	=1484	48%	3
7/3Saturday, July 34:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1455	+22	+24	=1501	52%	6
7/2Friday, July 28:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1498	–8	–2	=1488	51%	4
7/2Friday, July 28:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1453	+10	+21	=1484	49%	7
7/1Thursday, July 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1500	+28	+0	=1528	44%	5
7/1Thursday, July 12:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1536	+9	+24	=1569	56%	8
6/30Wednesday, June 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1503	–7	+0	=1496	44%	3
6/30Wednesday, June 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1533	–21	+24	=1536	56%	13
6/29Tuesday, June 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1504	+9	+0	=1513	42%	6
6/29Tuesday, June 298:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1532	+12	+26	=1570	58%	7
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Hentges	1512	–20	+2	=1494	47%	2
6/27Sunday, June 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1501	–13	+26	=1514	53%	8
6/25Friday, June 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1513	–20	+0	=1493	48%	7
6/25Friday, June 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Coulombe	1500	–18	+24	=1506	52%	8
6/24Thursday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Mejia	1511	–26	+0	=1485	40%	4
6/24Thursday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1502	+23	+26	=1551	60%	1
6/22Tuesday, June 221:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1497	+1	+0	=1498	46%	10
6/22Tuesday, June 221:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1504	–4	+24	=1524	54%	7
6/21Monday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1498	+12	–4	=1506	49%	5
6/21Monday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1503	–11	+21	=1513	51%	7
6/20Sunday, June 202:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1502	+10	+0	=1512	54%	4
6/20Sunday, June 202:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1451	+9	+24	=1484	46%	2
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1501	–18	+0	=1483	52%	3
6/19Saturday, June 194:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Allard	1452	–8	+24	=1468	48%	2
6/18Friday, June 188:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1500	+22	–2	=1520	57%	7
6/18Friday, June 188:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Foltynewicz	1453	–5	+24	=1472	43%	5
6/16Wednesday, June 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1497	–10	+0	=1487	49%	7
6/16Wednesday, June 1610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Sheffield	1471	–4	+24	=1491	51%	2
6/15Tuesday, June 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1501	–6	+0	=1495	54%	0
6/15Tuesday, June 1510:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1468	–23	+24	=1469	46%	10
6/14Monday, June 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1502	+9	–3	=1508	50%	3
6/14Monday, June 1410:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1467	+24	+20	=1511	50%	4
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1559	+2	+0	=1561	52%	14
6/13Sunday, June 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1506	+15	+24	=1545	48%	3
6/12Saturday, June 127:15 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1561	+11	+0	=1572	54%	2
6/12Saturday, June 127:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1504	+19	+24	=1547	46%	5
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1560	–1	–3	=1556	56%	6
6/11Friday, June 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1505	–14	+24	=1515	44%	4
6/10Thursday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	King	1552	–46	+0	=1506	47%	5
6/10Thursday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1504	–2	+24	=1526	53%	7
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1550	+44	+0	=1594	61%	9
6/9Wednesday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1505	–10	+24	=1519	39%	6
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1549	–7	–1	=1541	50%	8
6/8Tuesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1507	+13	+24	=1544	50%	4
6/6Sunday, June 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1506	–20	+0	=1486	47%	2
6/6Sunday, June 62:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1479	+3	+24	=1506	53%	1
6/5Saturday, June 54:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1505	+18	+0	=1523	51%	5
6/5Saturday, June 54:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Minor	1480	+15	+24	=1519	49%	4
6/4Friday, June 48:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1508	–11	+0	=1497	50%	5
6/4Friday, June 48:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1476	+0	+24	=1500	50%	14
6/3Thursday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1509	–2	–3	=1504	50%	5
6/3Thursday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1475	–1	+26	=1500	50%	6
6/2Wednesday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1511	–12	+0	=1499	60%	3
6/2Wednesday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Harvey	1429	–25	+24	=1428	40%	6
6/1Tuesday, June 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1513	+14	+0	=1527	63%	4
6/1Tuesday, June 17:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1427	–15	+24	=1436	37%	7
5/31Monday, May 311 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1512	+10	–3	=1519	61%	3
5/31Monday, May 311 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1428	–10	+21	=1439	39%	2
5/30Sunday, May 302:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1471	+0	+0	=1471	42%	6
5/30Sunday, May 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1514	–11	+24	=1527	58%	3
5/29Saturday, May 292:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Santana	1471	–20	+0	=1451	38%	5
5/29Saturday, May 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1514	–3	+24	=1535	62%	6
5/28Friday, May 288:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1469	–6	–3	=1460	40%	8
5/28Friday, May 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1516	–10	+26	=1532	60%	3
5/26Wednesday, May 261:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lopez	1432	–11	+0	=1421	32%	2
5/26Wednesday, May 261:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1516	+12	+24	=1552	68%	3
5/25Tuesday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1433	–3	+0	=1430	34%	4
5/25Tuesday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1515	+10	+24	=1549	66%	7
5/24Monday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1435	+53	–3	=1485	45%	3
5/24Monday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1513	–13	+21	=1521	55%	8
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1511	–4	+0	=1507	43%	8
5/23Sunday, May 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1513	+18	+24	=1555	57%	5
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1512	+3	+0	=1515	41%	3
5/22Saturday, May 224:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1512	+42	+24	=1578	59%	5
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1508	–13	–4	=1491	46%	10
5/21Friday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	McKenzie	1516	–19	+22	=1519	54%	0
5/20Thursday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1507	+11	+0	=1518	48%	6
5/20Thursday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Canning	1497	+7	+24	=1528	52%	3
5/20Thursday, May 204:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Thorpe	1509	–30	–4	=1475	44%	1
5/20Thursday, May 204:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Cobb	1495	–5	+24	=1514	56%	7
5/19Wednesday, May 191:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1534	+8	+0	=1542	53%	2
5/19Wednesday, May 191:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1510	–14	+24	=1520	47%	1
5/18Tuesday, May 187:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1536	+29	+0	=1565	58%	4
5/18Tuesday, May 187:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1508	–25	+24	=1507	42%	5
5/17Monday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1532	–12	–2	=1518	47%	16
5/17Monday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1512	+2	+24	=1538	53%	4
5/16Sunday, May 162:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Bassitt	1516	+23	+0	=1539	50%	7
5/16Sunday, May 162:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1513	+5	+24	=1542	50%	6
5/15Saturday, May 154:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1517	+4	+0	=1521	46%	4
5/15Saturday, May 154:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1513	+9	+24	=1546	54%	5
5/14Friday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1515	–7	–3	=1505	48%	6
5/14Friday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1515	–15	+22	=1522	52%	1
5/13Thursday, May 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1516	+10	+0	=1526	42%	2
5/13Thursday, May 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1534	+27	+24	=1585	58%	4
5/12Wednesday, May 128:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1518	+7	+0	=1525	47%	8
5/12Wednesday, May 128:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1532	–9	+24	=1547	53%	13
5/11Tuesday, May 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1520	+3	+3	=1526	49%	3
5/11Tuesday, May 118:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1530	–20	+24	=1534	51%	9
5/8Saturday, May 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1523	+9	+0	=1532	59%	3
5/8Saturday, May 84:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1432	+9	+24	=1465	41%	7
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1521	–20	–3	=1498	59%	7
5/7Friday, May 77:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1434	–18	+21	=1437	41%	3
5/6Thursday, May 61:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Lyles	1463	–23	+0	=1440	34%	4
5/6Thursday, May 61:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1523	+8	+24	=1555	66%	3
5/5Wednesday, May 57:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Yang	1462	–10	+0	=1452	42%	3
5/5Wednesday, May 57:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Thorpe	1524	–37	+24	=1511	58%	1
5/4Tuesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gibson	1460	+13	+0	=1473	38%	6
5/4Tuesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1526	+6	+24	=1556	62%	3
5/3Monday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1460	+12	–3	=1469	39%	5
5/3Monday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1525	–1	+24	=1548	61%	6
5/2Sunday, May 22:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1480	–3	+0	=1477	38%	4
5/2Sunday, May 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1523	+11	+24	=1558	62%	13
5/1Saturday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1476	+11	+0	=1487	42%	11
5/1Saturday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1527	–11	+24	=1540	58%	3
4/30Friday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1478	+13	–1	=1490	41%	1
4/30Friday, April 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1525	+6	+23	=1554	59%	9
4/28Wednesday, April 281:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1522	+3	+0	=1525	54%	10
4/28Wednesday, April 281:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Allen	1512	–42	+24	=1494	46%	2
4/27Tuesday, April 276:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1523	+2	+0	=1525	48%	4
4/27Tuesday, April 276:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1511	+5	+24	=1540	52%	7
4/26Monday, April 266:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1525	+8	–3	=1530	49%	3
4/26Monday, April 266:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Plesac	1509	+5	+24	=1538	51%	5
4/25Sunday, April 252:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Crowe	1442	–27	+0	=1415	33%	6
4/25Sunday, April 252:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1528	–12	+24	=1540	67%	2
4/24Saturday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Cahill	1439	–6	+0	=1433	32%	6
4/24Saturday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1530	+10	+24	=1564	68%	2
4/23Friday, April 238:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1440	+15	–3	=1452	36%	0
4/23Friday, April 238:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1529	–3	+22	=1548	64%	2
4/21Wednesday, April 213:37 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1531	+11	+0	=1542	50%	12
4/21Wednesday, April 213:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1517	–1	+24	=1540	50%	13
4/20Tuesday, April 209:25 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1532	+5	+0	=1537	52%	0
4/20Tuesday, April 209:25 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Luzardo	1516	–17	+24	=1523	48%	1
4/20Tuesday, April 206:30 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1534	–8	+5	=1531	48%	0
4/20Tuesday, April 206:30 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Manaea	1513	+8	+26	=1547	52%	7
4/16Friday, April 169:38 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Thorpe	1536	–45	–4	=1487	43%	3
4/16Friday, April 169:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Heaney	1510	+6	+23	=1539	57%	10
4/15Thursday, April 151:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Richards	1514	–15	+0	=1499	41%	3
4/15Thursday, April 151:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1536	+3	+24	=1563	59%	4
4/14Wednesday, April 145:25 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Rodriguez	1511	+21	+0	=1532	45%	7
4/14Wednesday, April 145:25 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1538	+6	+24	=1568	55%	1
4/14Wednesday, April 142:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1510	+5	+0	=1515	41%	3
4/14Wednesday, April 142:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1540	+12	+24	=1576	59%	2
4/13Tuesday, April 132:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Perez	1508	–19	–1	=1488	40%	4
4/13Tuesday, April 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1541	–6	+26	=1561	60%	2
4/11Sunday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1467	–35	+0	=1432	32%	8
4/11Sunday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1543	–5	+24	=1562	68%	6
4/10Saturday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kikuchi	1466	–4	+2	=1464	35%	4
4/10Saturday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1545	+1	+26	=1572	65%	3
4/8Thursday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1468	+29	–3	=1494	39%	2
4/8Thursday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1542	+6	+21	=1569	61%	10
4/7Wednesday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1542	+13	+0	=1555	62%	3
4/7Wednesday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1446	+2	+24	=1472	38%	2
4/6Tuesday, April 61:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Happ	1543	–6	+0	=1537	61%	3
4/6Tuesday, April 61:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1445	–8	+24	=1461	39%	4
4/5Monday, April 51:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Shoemaker	1541	–7	–2	=1532	58%	15
4/5Monday, April 51:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Urena	1448	+3	+24	=1475	42%	6
4/4Sunday, April 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Pineda	1538	+0	+0	=1538	52%	8
4/4Sunday, April 42:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1517	–14	+24	=1527	48%	2
4/3Saturday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1537	+0	+2	=1539	47%	2
4/3Saturday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1519	+15	+26	=1560	53%	0
4/1Thursday, April 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1538	+17	–2	=1553	47%	5
4/1Thursday, April 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1518	+34	+24	=1576	53%	6

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

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Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

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2021 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

AL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Team rating

Completed games

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