Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Do Not Sell My Info
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratings
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -36 | +3.7 | +0.9 | |||||||
Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 0 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 34 | SAME | +1.9 | +0.7 | |||||||
Kemba Walker | K. Walker | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | +6 | +4.8 | -0.1 | |||||||
Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 0 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 33 | +5 | +0.8 | +1.5 | |||||||
Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | SAME | -1.5 | +1.9 | |||||||
Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 25 | +7 | -1.9 | -0.8 | |||||||
Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -14 | 0.0 | +0.6 | |||||||
Grant Williams | G. Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 20 | +4 | -2.1 | +0.1 | |||||||
Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | +2 | -0.6 | +1.7 | |||||||
Jeff Teague | J. Teague | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | +10 | -0.7 | -1.6 | |||||||
Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | -1.8 | +0.1 | |||||||
Semi Ojeleye | S. Ojeleye | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 18 | +7 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |||||||
Javonte Green | J. Green | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | +11 | -0.8 | -0.2 | |||||||
Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +4 | -1.8 | -0.9 | |||||||
Carsen Edwards | C. Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |||||||
Tacko Fall | T. Fall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -3.6 | +0.3 | |||||||
Tremont Waters | T. Waters | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | -1.0 | -0.5 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | +1.4 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-109 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 47 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1560 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1563 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 36 | +3.7 | +0.9 | ||||
Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 0 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 34 | +1.9 | +0.7 | ||||
Kemba Walker | K. Walker | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | +4.8 | -0.1 | ||||
Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 0 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 | +0.8 | +1.5 | ||||
Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | -1.5 | +1.9 | ||||
Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -1.9 | -0.8 | ||||
Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | +0.6 | ||||
Grant Williams | G. Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 16 | -2.1 | +0.1 | ||||
Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | -0.6 | +1.7 | ||||
Jeff Teague | J. Teague | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -0.7 | -1.6 | ||||
Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -1.8 | +0.1 | ||||
Semi Ojeleye | S. Ojeleye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | -1.3 | -0.2 | ||||
Javonte Green | J. Green | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | -0.2 | ||||
Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | -0.9 | ||||
Carsen Edwards | C. Edwards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | -0.7 | ||||
Tacko Fall | T. Fall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.6 | +0.3 | ||||
Tremont Waters | T. Waters | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.2 | +2.4 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-108 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 55 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1647 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1620 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 39 | +3 | +3.8 | +0.9 | |||||||
Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 0 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 35 | +1 | +2.1 | +0.8 | |||||||
Kemba Walker | K. Walker | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | +5 | +4.7 | -0.1 | |||||||
Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 4 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 34 | +6 | +0.9 | +1.5 | |||||||
Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 22 | -1 | -1.6 | +1.9 | |||||||
Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 21 | +3 | -1.5 | -0.7 | |||||||
Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | -1 | 0.0 | +0.6 | |||||||
Grant Williams | G. Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 17 | +1 | -2.0 | +0.1 | |||||||
Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | SAME | -0.5 | +1.7 | |||||||
Jeff Teague | J. Teague | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | -0.7 | -1.7 | |||||||
Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | -1.8 | +0.1 | |||||||
Semi Ojeleye | S. Ojeleye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -5 | -1.2 | -0.2 | |||||||
Javonte Green | J. Green | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.8 | -0.2 | |||||||
Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | -0.9 | |||||||
Carsen Edwards | C. Edwards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.7 | |||||||
Tacko Fall | T. Fall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -3.5 | +0.3 | |||||||
Tremont Waters | T. Waters | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.5 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.0 | +3.1 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-103 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1696 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1658 | ||||||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1661 |
Comments