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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2021, at 10:41 PM

2020-21 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratings

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The Orlando Magic have a 62% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003333+1
+1.0
+1.6
Aaron GordonA. Gordon001121032+2
+0.4
+0.3
Evan Fournier*E. Fournier*01020012-17
+0.9
-0.4
Markelle FultzM. Fultz000000-29
0.0
-1.4
James Ennis IIIJ. Ennis III00210021+2
-0.9
-0.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu000000-20
-2.2
+0.9
Terrence RossT. Ross02450029+9
+1.0
-0.2
Cole AnthonyC. Anthony22000022+8
-1.7
-1.4
Mo BambaM. Bamba00051318+4
-1.5
+1.6
Michael Carter-WilliamsM. Carter-Williams600006-9
0.0
+2.1
Gary ClarkG. Clark00018018+4
-0.9
-1.3
Chuma OkekeC. Okeke000000-1
-0.5
+1.1
Dwayne BaconD. Bacon01490023+20
-2.6
-0.9
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac000000SAME
-1.4
+2.3
Khem BirchK. Birch000426+6
-1.8
+1.3
Jordan BoneJ. Bone10000010+10
-0.6
-1.3
Karim ManeK. Mane10000010+10
-2.9
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.9
0.0
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-2.1
-0.2
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
108-110
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
35
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1444
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1461). The weight given to Elo — 29% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1461). The weight given to Elo — 29% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1449
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003232
+1.0
+1.6
Aaron GordonA. Gordon00723030
+0.4
+0.3
Evan FournierE. Fournier02720029
+0.9
-0.4
Markelle FultzM. Fultz20900029
0.0
-1.4
James Ennis IIIJ. Ennis III00190019
-0.9
-0.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00810220
-2.2
+0.9
Terrence RossT. Ross09110020
+1.0
-0.2
Cole AnthonyC. Anthony14000014
-1.7
-1.4
Mo BambaM. Bamba00001414
-1.5
+1.6
Michael Carter-WilliamsM. Carter-Williams14100015
0.0
+2.1
Gary ClarkG. Clark00014014
-0.9
-1.3
Chuma OkekeC. Okeke000101
-0.5
+1.1
Dwayne BaconD. Bacon021003
-2.6
-0.9
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac000000
-1.4
+2.3
Khem BirchK. Birch000000
-1.8
+1.3
Jordan BoneJ. Bone000000
-0.6
-1.3
Karim ManeK. Mane000000
-2.9
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.7
+0.4
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
109-110
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
40
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1499
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1461). The weight given to Elo — 19% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1461). The weight given to Elo — 19% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1492
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003434+2
+0.9
+1.5
Aaron GordonA. Gordon00527032+2
+0.4
+0.2
Evan FournierE. Fournier02390032+3
+0.8
-0.5
Markelle FultzM. Fultz28400032+3
-0.1
-1.4
James Ennis IIIJ. Ennis III00180018-1
-0.9
-0.4
Al-Farouq AminuA. Aminu00512320SAME
-2.1
+0.9
Terrence RossT. Ross015110026+6
+1.0
-0.1
Cole AnthonyC. Anthony12000012-2
-1.7
-1.4
Mo BambaM. Bamba00001010-4
-1.5
+1.6
Michael Carter-WilliamsM. Carter-Williams8600014-1
-0.1
+2.1
Gary ClarkG. Clark0009110-4
-0.8
-1.2
Chuma OkekeC. Okeke000000-1
-0.5
+1.1
Dwayne BaconD. Bacon000000-3
-2.5
-0.9
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac000000SAME
-1.4
+2.3
Khem BirchK. Birch000000SAME
-1.7
+1.3
Jordan BoneJ. Bone000000SAME
-0.5
-1.3
Karim ManeK. Mane000000SAME
-2.8
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.3
+0.3
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
106-106
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1507
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1461). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1461). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1500
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1496
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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