Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Do Not Sell My Info
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | SAME | +2.8 | +0.2 | |||||||
Pascal Siakam | P. Siakam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 37 | SAME | +0.5 | 0.0 | |||||||
Fred VanVleet | F. VanVleet | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | SAME | +2.1 | +1.6 | |||||||
OG Anunoby | O. Anunoby | 0 | 0 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 33 | SAME | -0.1 | +1.8 | |||||||
Gary Trent Jr. | G. Trent Jr. | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 28 | SAME | -0.1 | -1.9 | |||||||
Khem Birch | K. Birch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | SAME | -1.8 | +1.5 | |||||||
Chris Boucher | C. Boucher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 21 | SAME | +1.2 | +0.4 | |||||||
Malachi Flynn | M. Flynn | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.1 | |||||||
DeAndre' Bembry | D. Bembry | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | SAME | -2.2 | +1.0 | |||||||
Freddie Gillespie | F. Gillespie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | SAME | -2.2 | +0.8 | |||||||
Aron Baynes | A. Baynes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | SAME | -3.6 | +1.0 | |||||||
Stanley Johnson | S. Johnson | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.2 | |||||||
Yuta Watanabe | Y. Watanabe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | +0.1 | |||||||
Rodney Hood | R. Hood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.2 | |||||||
Jalen Harris | J. Harris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.0 | -1.5 | |||||||
Paul Watson | P. Watson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | +0.5 | -1.5 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.5 | +2.3 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-104 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1619 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1431). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1431). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1619 | ||||||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1628 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | +2.8 | +0.2 | ||||
Pascal Siakam | P. Siakam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 10 | 37 | +0.5 | 0.0 | ||||
Fred VanVleet | F. VanVleet | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | +2.1 | +1.6 | ||||
OG Anunoby | O. Anunoby | 0 | 0 | 20 | 13 | 0 | 33 | -0.1 | +1.8 | ||||
Gary Trent Jr. | G. Trent Jr. | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 28 | -0.1 | -1.9 | ||||
Khem Birch | K. Birch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | -1.8 | +1.5 | ||||
Chris Boucher | C. Boucher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 21 | +1.2 | +0.4 | ||||
Malachi Flynn | M. Flynn | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -1.1 | +0.1 | ||||
DeAndre' Bembry | D. Bembry | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2.2 | +1.0 | ||||
Freddie Gillespie | F. Gillespie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2.2 | +0.8 | ||||
Aron Baynes | A. Baynes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3.6 | +1.0 | ||||
Stanley Johnson | S. Johnson | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -2.1 | -0.2 | ||||
Yuta Watanabe | Y. Watanabe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 | +0.1 | ||||
Rodney Hood | R. Hood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 | -1.2 | ||||
Jalen Harris | J. Harris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | -1.5 | ||||
Paul Watson | P. Watson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.5 | -1.5 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.5 | +2.3 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-104 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1619 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1431). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1431). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1619 | ||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1628 |
Comments