Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Do Not Sell My Info
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Karl-Anthony Towns | K. Towns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | SAME | +3.7 | +0.4 | |||||||
D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 13 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | +1 | +2.4 | -2.8 | |||||||
Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -31 | +0.5 | -1.8 | |||||||
Anthony Edwards | A. Edwards | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 38 | +2 | -0.6 | -2.5 | |||||||
Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 0 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | +2 | -1.9 | +1.3 | |||||||
Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +4 | -0.6 | -1.0 | |||||||
Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | +3 | 0.0 | +0.3 | |||||||
Naz Reid | N. Reid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 19 | SAME | -1.3 | +1.0 | |||||||
Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | +0.3 | |||||||
Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15 | +2 | -1.3 | +1.8 | |||||||
Jordan McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | +9 | -0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||
Jaylen Nowell | J. Nowell | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +8 | -0.9 | -1.2 | |||||||
Jaden McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.8 | |||||||
Jake Layman | J. Layman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.1 | |||||||
Ed Davis | E. Davis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | SAME | -2.8 | 0.0 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.5 | -2.1 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 110-112 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 37 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1467 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1448 | ||||||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1449 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Karl-Anthony Towns | K. Towns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | +3.7 | +0.4 | ||||
D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | +2.4 | -2.8 | ||||
Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 0 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31 | +0.5 | -1.8 | ||||
Anthony Edwards | A. Edwards | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 | -0.6 | -2.5 | ||||
Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 0 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 21 | -1.9 | +1.3 | ||||
Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | -1.0 | ||||
Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.0 | +0.3 | ||||
Naz Reid | N. Reid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 19 | -1.3 | +1.0 | ||||
Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.4 | +0.3 | ||||
Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 | -1.3 | +1.8 | ||||
Jordan McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
Jaylen Nowell | J. Nowell | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.9 | -1.2 | ||||
Jaden McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20 | -2.1 | -0.8 | ||||
Jake Layman | J. Layman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.4 | +0.1 | ||||
Ed Davis | E. Davis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -2.8 | 0.0 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.1 | -2.9 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 110-112 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 37 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1463 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1450 | ||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1451 |
Comments