UPDATED Sep. 22, 2021, at 10:24 PM

Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below.

Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic forecast for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

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Week 3

/ forecasts completed

Thursday, Sept. 23
at 8:20 p.m. Eastern
Thursday, Sept. 23
at 8:20 p.m. Eastern
" + game.team2 + "-logo
PanthersCARAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
TexansHOUHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
CardinalsARIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
JaguarsJAXHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
FalconsATLAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
GiantsNYGHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
RavensBALAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
LionsDETHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BearsCHIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BrownsCLEHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BengalsCINAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
SteelersPITHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
ColtsINDAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
TitansTENHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
ChargersLACAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
ChiefsKCHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
SaintsNOAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
PatriotsNEHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
WashingtonWSHAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BillsBUFHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:05 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
DolphinsMIAAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
RaidersLVHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:05 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
JetsNYJAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BroncosDENHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
SeahawksSEAAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
VikingsMINHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BuccaneersTBAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
RamsLARHome
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 8:20 p.m.
Sunday, Sept. 26
at 8:20 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
PackersGBAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
49ersSFHome
Monday, Sept. 27
at 8:15 p.m.
Monday, Sept. 27
at 8:15 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
EaglesPHIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
CowboysDALHome

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Week 2 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
DET at GB
DET 17,
GB 35
" + game.team2 + "-logoLionsDETat " + game.team1 + "-logoPackersGBGB80%DET 17, GB 35
KC at BAL
KC 35,
BAL 36
" + game.team2 + "-logoChiefsKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoRavensBALKC55%KC 35, BAL 36
DAL at LAC
DAL 20,
LAC 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoCowboysDALat " + game.team1 + "-logoChargersLACLAC61%DAL 20, LAC 17
TEN at SEA
TEN 33,
SEA 30
" + game.team2 + "-logoTitansTENat " + game.team1 + "-logoSeahawksSEASEA71%TEN 33, SEA 30
ATL at TB
ATL 25,
TB 48
" + game.team2 + "-logoFalconsATLat " + game.team1 + "-logoBuccaneersTBTB85%ATL 25, TB 48
MIN at ARI
MIN 33,
ARI 34
" + game.team2 + "-logoVikingsMINat " + game.team1 + "-logoCardinalsARIARI64%MIN 33, ARI 34
BUF at MIA
BUF 35,
MIA 0
" + game.team2 + "-logoBillsBUFat " + game.team1 + "-logoDolphinsMIABUF50%BUF 35, MIA 0
CIN at CHI
CIN 17,
CHI 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoBengalsCINat " + game.team1 + "-logoBearsCHICHI57%CIN 17, CHI 20
DEN at JAX
DEN 23,
JAX 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoBroncosDENat " + game.team1 + "-logoJaguarsJAXDEN68%DEN 23, JAX 13
HOU at CLE
HOU 21,
CLE 31
" + game.team2 + "-logoTexansHOUat " + game.team1 + "-logoBrownsCLECLE86%HOU 21, CLE 31
LAR at IND
LAR 27,
IND 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoRamsLARat " + game.team1 + "-logoColtsINDLAR56%LAR 27, IND 24
NE at NYJ
NE 25,
NYJ 6
" + game.team2 + "-logoPatriotsNEat " + game.team1 + "-logoJetsNYJNE61%NE 25, NYJ 6
NO at CAR
NO 7,
CAR 26
" + game.team2 + "-logoSaintsNOat " + game.team1 + "-logoPanthersCARNO61%NO 7, CAR 26
OAK at PIT
LV 26,
PIT 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoRaidersLVat " + game.team1 + "-logoSteelersPITPIT66%LV 26, PIT 17
SF at PHI
SF 17,
PHI 11
" + game.team2 + "-logo49ersSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoEaglesPHISF52%SF 17, PHI 11
NYG at WSH
NYG 29,
WSH 30
" + game.team2 + "-logoGiantsNYGat " + game.team1 + "-logoWashingtonWSHNYG53%NYG 29, WSH 30
Week 2 pointsWeek 2 pointsWeek 2 points

Week 1 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
BAL at LV
BAL 27,
LV 33
" + game.team2 + "-logoRavensBALat " + game.team1 + "-logoRaidersLVBAL60%BAL 27, LV 33
CHI at LAR
CHI 14,
LAR 34
" + game.team2 + "-logoBearsCHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoRamsLARLAR73%CHI 14, LAR 34
CLE at KC
CLE 29,
KC 33
" + game.team2 + "-logoBrownsCLEat " + game.team1 + "-logoChiefsKCKC68%CLE 29, KC 33
DEN at NYG
DEN 27,
NYG 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoBroncosDENat " + game.team1 + "-logoGiantsNYGDEN50%DEN 27, NYG 13
GB at NO
GB 3,
NO 38
" + game.team2 + "-logoPackersGBat " + game.team1 + "-logoSaintsNOGB59%GB 3, NO 38
MIA at NE
MIA 17,
NE 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoDolphinsMIAat " + game.team1 + "-logoPatriotsNENE57%MIA 17, NE 16
ARI at TEN
ARI 38,
TEN 13
" + game.team2 + "-logoCardinalsARIat " + game.team1 + "-logoTitansTENTEN66%ARI 38, TEN 13
JAX at HOU
JAX 21,
HOU 37
" + game.team2 + "-logoJaguarsJAXat " + game.team1 + "-logoTexansHOUJAX59%JAX 21, HOU 37
LAC at WSH
LAC 20,
WSH 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoChargersLACat " + game.team1 + "-logoWashingtonWSHWSH58%LAC 20, WSH 16
MIN at CIN
MIN 24,
CIN 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoVikingsMINat " + game.team1 + "-logoBengalsCINMIN53%MIN 24, CIN 27
NYJ at CAR
NYJ 14,
CAR 19
" + game.team2 + "-logoJetsNYJat " + game.team1 + "-logoPanthersCARCAR65%NYJ 14, CAR 19
PHI at ATL
PHI 32,
ATL 6
" + game.team2 + "-logoEaglesPHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoFalconsATLATL64%PHI 32, ATL 6
PIT at BUF
PIT 23,
BUF 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoSteelersPITat " + game.team1 + "-logoBillsBUFBUF72%PIT 23, BUF 16
SEA at IND
SEA 28,
IND 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoSeahawksSEAat " + game.team1 + "-logoColtsINDIND52%SEA 28, IND 16
SF at DET
SF 41,
DET 33
" + game.team2 + "-logo49ersSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoLionsDETSF66%SF 41, DET 33
DAL at TB
DAL 29,
TB 31
" + game.team2 + "-logoCowboysDALat " + game.team1 + "-logoBuccaneersTBTB74%DAL 29, TB 31
Week 1 pointsWeek 1 pointsWeek 1 points

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/forecasts completed

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