UPDATED Sep. 22, 2021, at 10:24 PM

2021 NFL Predictions

For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.

More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?

elo with top qb
elo rating
1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivision
record
sim. record
point diff.make playoffswin division1st-round byewin super bowl
1663
+10
Buccaneers2-0NFC South12-5+131.189%68%32%16%
1657
-2
Chiefs1-1AFC West12-5+109.881%46%24%13%
1604
+11
Rams2-0NFC West11-6+84.474%32%17%9%
1612
+30
Bills1-1AFC East11-6+127.882%63%15%8%
1585
+24
49ers2-0NFC West11-6+80.176%32%16%6%
1584
+15
Ravens1-1AFC North10-7+57.465%43%11%6%
1553
+16
Broncos2-0AFC West11-6+63.565%25%12%4%
1561
+5
Browns1-1AFC North10-7+48.956%33%7%4%
1550
+12
Cardinals2-0NFC West10-7+55.061%21%9%4%
1564
-19
Seahawks1-1NFC West10-7+46.752%15%6%3%
1552
+11
Packers1-1NFC North9-8+6.559%53%3%3%
1537
+11
Cowboys1-1NFC East9-8+29.859%51%3%3%
1526
+41
Raiders2-0AFC West10-7+22.654%18%8%3%
1542
-50
Saints1-1NFC South9-8+45.049%15%4%3%
1523
-18
Chargers1-1AFC West9-8+7.640%11%4%2%
1525
+19
Patriots1-1AFC East9-8+41.047%21%4%2%
1510
+23
Titans1-1AFC South9-8+8.768%63%6%2%
1504
+45
Panthers2-0NFC South9-8+21.449%16%5%2%
1501
-36
-13Steelers1-1AFC North8-9-12.833%16%3%1%
1500
+1
Vikings0-2NFC North7-10-11.031%24%0.8%1%
1480
-44
+15Dolphins1-1AFC East9-8-21.243%15%3%1%
1467
-15
Eagles1-1NFC East8-9-8.133%26%1%0.9%
1477
-8
-34Colts0-2AFC South7-10-20.934%27%1%0.9%
1485
+1
-115Washington1-1NFC East6-11-75.520%15%0.4%0.7%
1451
+10
-8Bears1-1NFC North7-10-67.825%19%0.6%0.6%
1424
-21
Bengals1-1AFC North7-10-56.418%8%0.9%0.4%
1424
+3
Giants0-2NFC East6-11-84.511%8%0.1%0.2%
1404
-7
Falcons0-2NFC South6-11-109.58%1%0.1%0.1%
1354
-5
Lions0-2NFC North4-13-132.25%4%<0.1%<0.1%
1339
-34
Jets0-2AFC East5-12-120.44%1%<0.1%<0.1%
1305
+2
-61Texans1-1AFC South5-12-128.56%5%<0.1%<0.1%
1321
-22
Jaguars0-2AFC South4-13-138.45%4%<0.1%<0.1%

Week 3

Thursday, Sept. 23

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers-876%
Texans24%
Quality
2
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
24
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
13
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Sept. 26

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-6.572%
Jaguars28%
Quality
15
Importance
26
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons39%
Giants-361%
Quality
11
Importance
20
Overall
16
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-773%
Lions27%
Quality
28
Importance
25
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%
Browns-773%
Quality
49
Importance
44
Overall
47
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals33%
Steelers-567%
Quality
26
Importance
59
Overall
43
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts33%
Titans-567%
Quality
36
Importance
95
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers25%
Chiefs-875%
Quality
86
Importance
56
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints44%
Patriots-1.556%
Quality
66
Importance
78
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington15%
Bills-1285%
Quality
38
Importance
17
Overall
28
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins37%
Raiders-463%
Quality
54
Importance
88
Overall
71
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets17%
Broncos-1183%
Quality
19
Importance
18
Overall
19
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
SeahawksPK50%
Vikings50%
Quality
65
Importance
77
Overall
71
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers49%
RamsPK51%
Quality
96
Importance
88
Overall
92
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers37%
49ers-463%
Quality
80
Importance
62
Overall
71

Monday, Sept. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles32%
Cowboys-568%
Quality
49
Importance
89
Overall
69

Week 4

Thursday, Sept. 30

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars28%
Bengals-6.572%
Quality
3
Importance
16
Overall
10

Sunday, Oct. 3

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers37%
Cowboys-3.563%
Quality
59
Importance
80
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BrownsPK50%
Vikings50%
Quality
64
Importance
67
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions30%
Bears-670%
Quality
7
Importance
26
Overall
17
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans8%
Bills-1792%
Quality
8
Importance
6
Overall
7
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts38%
Dolphins-3.562%
Quality
37
Importance
78
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-5.568%
Eagles32%
Quality
76
Importance
49
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants26%
Saints-774%
Quality
38
Importance
46
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-4.566%
Jets34%
Quality
13
Importance
30
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington37%
Falcons-3.563%
Quality
5
Importance
31
Overall
18
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals35%
Rams-4.565%
Quality
83
Importance
80
Overall
82
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks39%
49ers-361%
Quality
82
Importance
84
Overall
83
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens46%
Broncos-154%
Quality
80
Importance
85
Overall
83
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers35%
Packers-4.565%
Quality
62
Importance
62
Overall
62
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-361%
Patriots39%
Quality
87
Importance
65
Overall
76

Monday, Oct. 4

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders42%
Chargers-258%
Quality
61
Importance
90
Overall
76

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 7

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams47%
Seahawks-153%
Quality
85
Importance
88
Overall
87

Sunday, Oct. 10

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets41%
Falcons-2.559%
Quality
3
Importance
10
Overall
7
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos49%
Steelers-0.551%
Quality
62
Importance
86
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions24%
Vikings-876%
Quality
14
Importance
28
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-360%
Bengals40%
Quality
41
Importance
57
Overall
49
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins20%
Buccaneers-9.580%
Quality
80
Importance
36
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-8.578%
Texans22%
Quality
3
Importance
30
Overall
17
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-4.566%
Washington34%
Quality
24
Importance
68
Overall
46
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles37%
Panthers-463%
Quality
41
Importance
81
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-5.568%
Jaguars32%
Quality
10
Importance
46
Overall
28
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears31%
Raiders-5.569%
Quality
41
Importance
56
Overall
49
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns46%
Chargers-154%
Quality
69
Importance
90
Overall
80
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants27%
Cowboys-773%
Quality
36
Importance
57
Overall
47
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers47%
Cardinals-153%
Quality
80
Importance
87
Overall
84
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills36%
Chiefs-464%
Quality
96
Importance
71
Overall
84

Monday, Oct. 11

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts28%
Ravens-6.572%
Quality
63
Importance
60
Overall
62

Week 6

Thursday, Oct. 14

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-5.569%
Eagles31%
Quality
77
Importance
66
Overall
72

Sunday, Oct. 17

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-6.571%
Jaguars29%
Quality
6
Importance
35
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-0.552%
Lions48%
Quality
5
Importance
22
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-256%
Bears44%
Quality
48
Importance
94
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans18%
Colts-10.582%
Quality
2
Importance
24
Overall
13
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-979%
Washington21%
Quality
49
Importance
30
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers33%
Ravens-567%
Quality
74
Importance
81
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-4.566%
Giants34%
Quality
53
Importance
48
Overall
51
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings41%
Panthers-2.559%
Quality
50
Importance
84
Overall
67
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals40%
Browns-360%
Quality
75
Importance
75
Overall
75
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys43%
Patriots-257%
Quality
64
Importance
75
Overall
70
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders38%
Broncos-3.562%
Quality
68
Importance
90
Overall
79
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks50%
SteelersPK50%
Quality
65
Importance
77
Overall
71

Monday, Oct. 18

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-256%
Titans44%
Quality
77
Importance
60
Overall
69

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 21

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos40%
Browns-2.560%
Quality
76
Importance
87
Overall
82

Sunday, Oct. 24

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons35%
Dolphins-4.565%
Quality
20
Importance
42
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers-153%
Giants47%
Quality
30
Importance
63
Overall
47
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals22%
Ravens-8.578%
Quality
48
Importance
58
Overall
53
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-3.563%
Titans37%
Quality
84
Importance
60
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets22%
Patriots-8.578%
Quality
15
Importance
32
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington20%
Packers-9.580%
Quality
26
Importance
37
Overall
32
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions14%
Rams-12.586%
Quality
32
Importance
16
Overall
24
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles33%
Raiders-567%
Quality
47
Importance
68
Overall
58
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears17%
Buccaneers-1183%
Quality
73
Importance
34
Overall
54
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%
Cardinals-12.586%
Quality
11
Importance
17
Overall
14
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts24%
49ers-876%
Quality
63
Importance
48
Overall
56

Monday, Oct. 25

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints41%
Seahawks-2.559%
Quality
74
Importance
94
Overall
84

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 28

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers42%
Cardinals-2.558%
Quality
74
Importance
86
Overall
80

Sunday, Oct. 31

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers-256%
Falcons44%
Quality
24
Importance
66
Overall
45
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-154%
Jets46%
Quality
4
Importance
25
Overall
15
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-9.580%
Texans20%
Quality
19
Importance
23
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins22%
Bills-8.578%
Quality
70
Importance
63
Overall
67
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-258%
Lions42%
Quality
10
Importance
39
Overall
25
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers37%
Browns-3.563%
Quality
64
Importance
93
Overall
79
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-360%
Bears40%
Quality
56
Importance
68
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans47%
Colts-153%
Quality
45
Importance
98
Overall
72
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars16%
Seahawks-11.584%
Quality
17
Importance
17
Overall
17
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots37%
Chargers-3.563%
Quality
61
Importance
90
Overall
76
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-2.559%
Saints41%
Quality
90
Importance
90
Overall
90
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington23%
Broncos-8.577%
Quality
35
Importance
45
Overall
40
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys47%
Vikings-153%
Quality
58
Importance
77
Overall
68

Monday, Nov. 1

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants16%
Chiefs-11.584%
Quality
65
Importance
19
Overall
42

Week 9

Thursday, Nov. 4

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets24%
Colts-876%
Quality
8
Importance
24
Overall
16

Sunday, Nov. 7

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons25%
Saints-875%
Quality
33
Importance
48
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-9.579%
Jaguars21%
Quality
24
Importance
20
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-361%
Bengals39%
Quality
43
Importance
85
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos44%
Cowboys-1.556%
Quality
71
Importance
77
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans21%
Dolphins-9.579%
Quality
5
Importance
29
Overall
17
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings28%
Ravens-6.572%
Quality
69
Importance
56
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots45%
Panthers-1.555%
Quality
56
Importance
84
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders-2.559%
Giants41%
Quality
34
Importance
56
Overall
45
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers49%
Eagles-0.551%
Quality
46
Importance
77
Overall
62
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals37%
49ers-3.563%
Quality
80
Importance
87
Overall
84
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers28%
Chiefs-6.572%
Quality
90
Importance
48
Overall
69
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans29%
Rams-671%
Quality
75
Importance
53
Overall
64

Monday, Nov. 8

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears35%
Steelers-465%
Quality
35
Importance
61
Overall
48

Week 10

Thursday, Nov. 11

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-256%
Dolphins44%
Quality
64
Importance
93
Overall
79

Sunday, Nov. 14

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons25%
Cowboys-7.575%
Quality
32
Importance
40
Overall
36
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-8.578%
Jets22%
Quality
30
Importance
26
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns47%
Patriots-153%
Quality
70
Importance
95
Overall
83
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions27%
Steelers-773%
Quality
14
Importance
28
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars23%
Colts-8.577%
Quality
6
Importance
32
Overall
19
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints46%
Titans-154%
Quality
62
Importance
80
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-567%
Washington33%
Quality
80
Importance
57
Overall
69
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers35%
Cardinals-4.565%
Quality
62
Importance
93
Overall
78
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings38%
Chargers-3.562%
Quality
54
Importance
70
Overall
62
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles30%
Broncos-670%
Quality
53
Importance
64
Overall
59
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks46%
Packers-154%
Quality
76
Importance
87
Overall
82
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-360%
Raiders40%
Quality
87
Importance
87
Overall
87

Monday, Nov. 15

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams45%
49ers-1.555%
Quality
88
Importance
82
Overall
85

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 18

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-2.559%
Falcons41%
Quality
29
Importance
53
Overall
41

Sunday, Nov. 21

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-257%
Bears43%
Quality
56
Importance
70
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions18%
Browns-10.582%
Quality
23
Importance
23
Overall
23
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers49%
VikingsPK51%
Quality
62
Importance
97
Overall
80
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans20%
Titans-9.580%
Quality
7
Importance
43
Overall
25
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts25%
Bills-7.575%
Quality
69
Importance
55
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-3.562%
Jets38%
Quality
9
Importance
50
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-0.552%
Eagles48%
Quality
50
Importance
90
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-876%
Jaguars24%
Quality
20
Importance
26
Overall
23
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington39%
Panthers-361%
Quality
46
Importance
75
Overall
61
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals31%
Raiders-5.569%
Quality
34
Importance
73
Overall
54
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals40%
Seahawks-360%
Quality
76
Importance
94
Overall
85
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys26%
Chiefs-774%
Quality
88
Importance
50
Overall
69
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers38%
Chargers-3.562%
Quality
54
Importance
89
Overall
72

Monday, Nov. 22

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants17%
Buccaneers-1183%
Quality
66
Importance
24
Overall
45

Week 12

Thursday, Nov. 25

12:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears-1.556%
Lions44%
Quality
7
Importance
39
Overall
23
4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders40%
Cowboys-360%
Quality
65
Importance
80
Overall
73
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-0.552%
Saints48%
Quality
83
Importance
70
Overall
77

Sunday, Nov. 28

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons-154%
Jaguars46%
Quality
2
Importance
13
Overall
8
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers45%
Dolphins-1.555%
Quality
45
Importance
85
Overall
65
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets46%
Texans-154%
Quality
0
Importance
10
Overall
5
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles48%
Giants-0.552%
Quality
21
Importance
70
Overall
46
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers-153%
Bengals47%
Quality
29
Importance
80
Overall
55
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-568%
Colts32%
Quality
79
Importance
61
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans40%
Patriots-360%
Quality
57
Importance
83
Overall
70
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers34%
Broncos-4.566%
Quality
68
Importance
92
Overall
80
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-0.552%
Packers48%
Quality
83
Importance
83
Overall
83
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings30%
49ers-670%
Quality
69
Importance
68
Overall
69
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns39%
Ravens-361%
Quality
82
Importance
95
Overall
89

Monday, Nov. 29

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks-0.552%
Washington48%
Quality
61
Importance
78
Overall
70

Week 13

Thursday, Dec. 2

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys41%
Saints-2.559%
Quality
68
Importance
89
Overall
79

Sunday, Dec. 5

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-2.559%
Bears41%
Quality
48
Importance
83
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos25%
Chiefs-7.575%
Quality
90
Importance
62
Overall
76
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-4.566%
Texans34%
Quality
5
Importance
50
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-1.555%
Bengals45%
Quality
34
Importance
77
Overall
56
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-3.563%
Lions37%
Quality
14
Importance
45
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants34%
Dolphins-4.566%
Quality
24
Importance
52
Overall
38
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-360%
Jets40%
Quality
7
Importance
35
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-876%
Falcons24%
Quality
60
Importance
34
Overall
47
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington35%
Raiders-465%
Quality
51
Importance
67
Overall
59
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-154%
Steelers46%
Quality
69
Importance
94
Overall
82
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars12%
Rams-1488%
Quality
22
Importance
13
Overall
18
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers45%
Seahawks-1.555%
Quality
82
Importance
92
Overall
87

Monday, Dec. 6

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots30%
Bills-670%
Quality
80
Importance
88
Overall
84

Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 9

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers42%
Vikings-2.558%
Quality
49
Importance
73
Overall
61

Sunday, Dec. 12

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons26%
Panthers-7.574%
Quality
24
Importance
56
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens42%
Browns-2.558%
Quality
82
Importance
95
Overall
89
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys49%
Washington-0.551%
Quality
54
Importance
92
Overall
73
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars17%
Titans-1183%
Quality
10
Importance
34
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-670%
Jets30%
Quality
17
Importance
37
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders25%
Chiefs-7.575%
Quality
87
Importance
70
Overall
79
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks-876%
Texans24%
Quality
14
Importance
33
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-464%
Bengals36%
Quality
49
Importance
57
Overall
53
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions18%
Broncos-10.582%
Quality
22
Importance
24
Overall
23
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants28%
Chargers-6.572%
Quality
34
Importance
48
Overall
41
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills35%
Buccaneers-4.565%
Quality
96
Importance
50
Overall
73
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears26%
Packers-7.574%
Quality
48
Importance
91
Overall
70

Monday, Dec. 13

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams50%
CardinalsPK50%
Quality
83
Importance
92
Overall
88

Week 15

Thursday, Dec. 16

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-360%
Chargers40%
Quality
86
Importance
86
Overall
86

Sunday, Dec. 19

Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers28%
Bills-6.572%
Quality
76
Importance
59
Overall
68
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots48%
Colts-0.552%
Quality
49
Importance
89
Overall
69
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets21%
Dolphins-979%
Quality
9
Importance
35
Overall
22
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders36%
Browns-464%
Quality
70
Importance
91
Overall
81
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington41%
Eagles-2.559%
Quality
36
Importance
85
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-5.568%
Lions32%
Quality
21
Importance
44
Overall
33
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-257%
Giants43%
Quality
36
Importance
76
Overall
56
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers37%
Ravens-3.563%
Quality
80
Importance
73
Overall
77
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans40%
Jaguars-360%
Quality
0
Importance
12
Overall
6
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans43%
Steelers-257%
Quality
51
Importance
79
Overall
65
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons20%
49ers-1080%
Quality
43
Importance
37
Overall
40
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals25%
Broncos-7.575%
Quality
41
Importance
63
Overall
52
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks36%
Rams-464%
Quality
85
Importance
92
Overall
89
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints26%
Buccaneers-774%
Quality
90
Importance
76
Overall
83

Monday, Dec. 20

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings49%
Bears-0.551%
Quality
35
Importance
91
Overall
63

Week 16

Thursday, Dec. 23

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-0.552%
Titans48%
Quality
72
Importance
66
Overall
69

Saturday, Dec. 25

4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns43%
Packers-257%
Quality
76
Importance
82
Overall
79
8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts32%
Cardinals-5.568%
Quality
55
Importance
76
Overall
66

Sunday, Dec. 26

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-464%
Bengals36%
Quality
48
Importance
84
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-154%
Patriots46%
Quality
80
Importance
92
Overall
86
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions35%
Falcons-4.565%
Quality
4
Importance
13
Overall
9
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars39%
Jets-361%
Quality
0
Importance
9
Overall
5
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-6.571%
Texans29%
Quality
9
Importance
38
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-1.556%
Vikings44%
Quality
73
Importance
82
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants36%
Eagles-464%
Quality
21
Importance
66
Overall
44
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-464%
Panthers36%
Quality
84
Importance
89
Overall
87
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%
Seahawks-773%
Quality
51
Importance
70
Overall
61
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos46%
Raiders-154%
Quality
68
Importance
96
Overall
82
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers22%
Chiefs-8.578%
Quality
83
Importance
60
Overall
72
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington35%
Cowboys-4.565%
Quality
54
Importance
91
Overall
73

Monday, Dec. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins33%
Saints-567%
Quality
54
Importance
80
Overall
67

Week 17

Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals44%
Cowboys-256%
Quality
70
Importance
89
Overall
80
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons18%
Bills-10.582%
Quality
49
Importance
21
Overall
35
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers37%
Saints-463%
Quality
60
Importance
96
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars18%
Patriots-10.582%
Quality
12
Importance
27
Overall
20
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-773%
Bengals27%
Quality
65
Importance
56
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins38%
Titans-3.562%
Quality
46
Importance
86
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants38%
Bears-3.562%
Quality
19
Importance
45
Overall
32
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders48%
Colts-0.552%
Quality
49
Importance
88
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles39%
Washington-361%
Quality
36
Importance
84
Overall
60
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-10.582%
Jets18%
Quality
40
Importance
15
Overall
28
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos46%
Chargers-154%
Quality
68
Importance
95
Overall
82
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans12%
49ers-13.588%
Quality
17
Importance
16
Overall
17
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions17%
Seahawks-1183%
Quality
24
Importance
27
Overall
26
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams44%
Ravens-256%
Quality
88
Importance
75
Overall
82
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings35%
Packers-4.565%
Quality
62
Importance
98
Overall
80

Monday, Jan. 3, 2022

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BrownsPK51%
Steelers49%
Quality
64
Importance
96
Overall
80

Week 18

Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers22%
Buccaneers-8.578%
Quality
84
Importance
68
Overall
76
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears35%
Vikings-465%
Quality
35
Importance
87
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals25%
Browns-7.575%
Quality
43
Importance
73
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-0.551%
Eagles49%
Quality
49
Importance
98
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-5.569%
Lions31%
Quality
21
Importance
49
Overall
35
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-464%
Jaguars36%
Quality
6
Importance
46
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots48%
Dolphins-0.552%
Quality
50
Importance
98
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-3.562%
Falcons38%
Quality
33
Importance
66
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets13%
Bills-1387%
Quality
30
Importance
19
Overall
25
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers31%
Ravens-5.569%
Quality
69
Importance
92
Overall
81
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-670%
Texans30%
Quality
7
Importance
56
Overall
32
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
WashingtonPK51%
Giants49%
Quality
25
Importance
50
Overall
38
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-257%
Broncos43%
Quality
90
Importance
85
Overall
88
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers42%
Raiders-2.558%
Quality
61
Importance
97
Overall
79
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks43%
Cardinals-257%
Quality
76
Importance
96
Overall
86
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers39%
Rams-361%
Quality
88
Importance
80
Overall
84

Completed

Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 16

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants-153%29
Washington47%30
Quality
4
Importance
48
Overall
26

Sunday, Sept. 19

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills50%35
DolphinsPK50%0
Quality
74
Importance
91
Overall
83
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals43%17
Bears-257%20
Quality
20
Importance
49
Overall
35
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-5.568%23
Jaguars32%13
Quality
18
Importance
45
Overall
32
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%21
Browns-12.586%31
Quality
13
Importance
16
Overall
15
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-256%27
Colts44%24
Quality
68
Importance
64
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-361%25
Jets39%6
Quality
18
Importance
52
Overall
35
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-361%7
Panthers39%26
Quality
60
Importance
77
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders34%26
Steelers-4.566%17
Quality
53
Importance
78
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-0.552%17
Eagles48%11
Quality
59
Importance
79
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons15%25
Buccaneers-1285%48
Quality
60
Importance
19
Overall
40
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%33
Cardinals-464%34
Quality
58
Importance
73
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys39%20
Chargers-361%17
Quality
66
Importance
66
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans29%33
Seahawks-6.571%30
Quality
66
Importance
52
Overall
59
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.555%35
Ravens45%36
Quality
93
Importance
81
Overall
87

Monday, Sept. 20

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions20%17
Packers-9.580%35
Quality
21
Importance
33
Overall
27

Week 1

Thursday, Sept. 9

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys26%29
Buccaneers-774%31
Quality
85
Importance
48
Overall
67

Sunday, Sept. 12

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals34%38
Titans-4.566%13
Quality
56
Importance
59
Overall
58
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-2.559%21
Texans41%37
Quality
0
Importance
17
Overall
9
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers42%20
Washington-258%16
Quality
58
Importance
67
Overall
63
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-153%24
Bengals47%27
Quality
33
Importance
57
Overall
45
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets35%14
Panthers-4.565%19
Quality
12
Importance
36
Overall
24
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles36%32
Falcons-464%6
Quality
21
Importance
57
Overall
39
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers28%23
Bills-6.572%16
Quality
78
Importance
58
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks48%28
Colts-0.552%16
Quality
63
Importance
73
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-4.566%41
Lions34%33
Quality
23
Importance
45
Overall
34
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns32%29
Chiefs-5.568%33
Quality
90
Importance
60
Overall
75
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BroncosPK50%27
Giants50%13
Quality
34
Importance
60
Overall
47
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-2.559%3
Saints41%38
Quality
80
Importance
74
Overall
77
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins43%17
Patriots-257%16
Quality
54
Importance
90
Overall
72
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%14
Rams-773%34
Quality
54
Importance
54
Overall
54

Monday, Sept. 13

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-360%27
Raiders40%33
Quality
60
Importance
65
Overall
63

Quarterback ratings

The top quarterbacks for each team and their value in Elo points, which are used in our quarterback-adjusted model. Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running. Initial rookie ratings are based on draft position; undrafted rookies begin their careers with an Elo value of zero, while a first overall draft pick starts with an Elo value of 113.

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West