UPDATED Dec. 3, 2021, at 3:44 PM

2021 NFL Predictions

For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.

More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?

elo with top qb
elo rating
1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivisionmake playoffswin division1st-round byewin super bowl
Week 13 matchup
Wk 13
Week 14 matchup
Wk 14
Week 15 matchup
Wk 15
Week 16 matchup
Wk 16
Week 17 matchup
Wk 17
Week 18 matchup
Wk 18
1653
Packers9-3NFC North>99%98%38%17%
CHI
@BAL
CLE
MIN
@DET
1623
Cardinals9-2NFC West>99%95%39%13%
@CHI
LAR
@DET
IND
@DAL
SEA
1639
Buccaneers8-3NFC South>99%98%18%13%
@ATL
BUF
NO
@CAR
@NYJ
CAR
1628
Patriots8-4AFC East91%46%22%10%
@BUF
@IND
BUF
JAX
@MIA
1630
Chiefs7-4AFC West85%64%9%9%
DEN
LV
@LAC
PIT
@CIN
@DEN
1589
Ravens8-3AFC North90%63%26%8%
@PIT
@CLE
GB
@CIN
LAR
PIT
1615
Bills7-4AFC East86%54%9%8%
NE
@TB
CAR
@NE
ATL
NYJ
1544
Titans8-4AFC South98%96%21%5%
JAX
@PIT
SF
MIA
@HOU
1563
+15
Cowboys8-4NFC East96%84%5%4%
@WSH
@NYG
WSH
ARI
@PHI
1535
Bengals7-4AFC North65%30%9%3%
LAC
SF
@DEN
BAL
KC
@CLE
1551
Rams7-4NFC West85%5%0.5%2%
JAX
@ARI
SEA
@MIN
@BAL
SF
1525
Chargers6-5AFC West50%21%2%2%
@CIN
NYG
KC
@HOU
DEN
@LV
1570
Colts6-6AFC South52%4%0.2%2%
@HOU
NE
@ARI
LV
@JAX
1561
49ers6-5NFC West75%0.6%<0.1%2%
@SEA
@CIN
ATL
@TEN
HOU
@LAR
1521
Vikings5-6NFC North52%2%<0.1%0.8%
@DET
PIT
@CHI
LAR
@GB
CHI
1494
Broncos6-5AFC West27%10%0.4%0.7%
@KC
DET
CIN
@LV
@LAC
KC
1503
Browns6-6AFC North19%5%<0.1%0.5%
BAL
LV
@GB
@PIT
CIN
1527
-53Washington5-6NFC East32%11%<0.1%0.4%
@LV
DAL
@PHI
@DAL
PHI
@NYG
1449
Raiders6-5AFC West20%5%0.3%0.3%
WSH
@KC
@CLE
DEN
@IND
LAC
1523
Dolphins5-7AFC East9%0.1%<0.1%0.3%
NYG
NYJ
@NO
@TEN
NE
1477
Eagles5-7NFC East26%4%<0.1%0.3%
@NYJ
WSH
NYG
@WSH
DAL
1455
Steelers5-5-1AFC North10%2%0.1%0.2%
BAL
@MIN
TEN
@KC
CLE
@BAL
1459
Panthers5-7NFC South6%0.8%<0.1%<0.1%
ATL
@BUF
TB
@NO
@TB
1509
-18
-75Saints5-7NFC South11%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
@NYJ
@TB
MIA
CAR
@ATL
1444
+5Giants4-7NFC East6%1%<0.1%<0.1%
@MIA
@LAC
DAL
@PHI
@CHI
WSH
1389
Falcons5-6NFC South9%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
TB
@CAR
@SF
DET
@BUF
NO
1399
Bears4-7NFC North3%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
ARI
@GB
MIN
@SEA
NYG
@MIN
1464
Seahawks3-8NFC West2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
SF
@HOU
@LAR
CHI
DET
@ARI
1309
Jets3-8AFC East<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
PHI
NO
@MIA
JAX
TB
@BUF
1304
Texans2-9AFC South<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
IND
SEA
@JAX
LAC
@SF
TEN
1277
Jaguars2-9AFC South<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
@LAR
@TEN
HOU
@NYJ
@NE
IND
1258
Lions0-10-1NFC North<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
MIN
@DEN
ARI
@ATL
@SEA
GB

Week 13

Thursday, Dec. 2

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-1.556%27
Saints44%17
Quality
47
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
83
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
65
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Dec. 5

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-7.575%
Bears25%
Quality
50
Importance
39
Overall
45
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-8.577%
Texans23%
Quality
15
Importance
35
Overall
25
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers40%
Bengals-360%
Quality
64
Importance
99
Overall
82
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-877%
Lions23%
Quality
4
Importance
31
Overall
18
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants32%
Dolphins-5.568%
Quality
40
Importance
19
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-4.566%
Jets34%
Quality
5
Importance
17
Overall
11
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-7.575%
Falcons25%
Quality
50
Importance
33
Overall
42
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars12%
Rams-13.588%
Quality
7
Importance
6
Overall
7
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington45%
Raiders-1.555%
Quality
29
Importance
72
Overall
51
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-361%
Steelers39%
Quality
58
Importance
68
Overall
63
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-1.556%
Seahawks44%
Quality
54
Importance
53
Overall
54
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos22%
Chiefs-8.578%
Quality
77
Importance
77
Overall
77

Monday, Dec. 6

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots44%
Bills-1.556%
Quality
94
Importance
93
Overall
94

Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 9

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers33%
Vikings-567%
Quality
42
Importance
61
Overall
52

Sunday, Dec. 12

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons30%
Panthers-670%
Quality
14
Importance
21
Overall
18
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
RavensPK51%
Browns49%
Quality
71
Importance
88
Overall
80
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-154%
Washington46%
Quality
57
Importance
63
Overall
60
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars12%
Titans-1488%
Quality
7
Importance
5
Overall
6
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-2.559%
Jets41%
Quality
2
Importance
9
Overall
6
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders20%
Chiefs-9.580%
Quality
66
Importance
59
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks-464%
Texans36%
Quality
4
Importance
2
Overall
3
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions15%
Broncos-1285%
Quality
2
Importance
7
Overall
5
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants30%
Chargers-670%
Quality
39
Importance
48
Overall
44
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills38%
Buccaneers-3.562%
Quality
95
Importance
50
Overall
73
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers45%
Bengals-1.555%
Quality
72
Importance
86
Overall
79
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears13%
Packers-13.587%
Quality
56
Importance
17
Overall
37

Monday, Dec. 13

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams32%
Cardinals-568%
Quality
86
Importance
73
Overall
80

Week 15

Thursday, Dec. 16

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-256%
Chargers44%
Quality
83
Importance
93
Overall
88

Saturday, Dec. 18

4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders34%
Browns-4.566%
Quality
35
Importance
72
Overall
54
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
PatriotsPK50%
Colts50%
Quality
89
Importance
98
Overall
94

Sunday, Dec. 19

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-1285%
Lions15%
Quality
12
Importance
12
Overall
12
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers23%
Bills-8.577%
Quality
66
Importance
31
Overall
49
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-2.558%
Giants42%
Quality
49
Importance
19
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans46%
Jaguars-154%
Quality
0
Importance
0
Overall
0
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets15%
Dolphins-1285%
Quality
9
Importance
3
Overall
6
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-1.555%
Steelers45%
Quality
48
Importance
65
Overall
57
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington38%
Eagles-3.562%
Quality
36
Importance
97
Overall
67
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons21%
49ers-9.579%
Quality
33
Importance
72
Overall
53
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals47%
Broncos-0.553%
Quality
56
Importance
96
Overall
76
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
PackersPK51%
Ravens49%
Quality
94
Importance
96
Overall
95
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks30%
Rams-670%
Quality
51
Importance
32
Overall
42
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints18%
Buccaneers-10.582%
Quality
64
Importance
32
Overall
48

Monday, Dec. 20

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-2.559%
Bears41%
Quality
27
Importance
69
Overall
48

Week 16

Thursday, Dec. 23

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers43%
Titans-257%
Quality
74
Importance
81
Overall
78

Saturday, Dec. 25

4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns23%
Packers-877%
Quality
82
Importance
72
Overall
77
8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts34%
Cardinals-4.566%
Quality
88
Importance
93
Overall
91

Sunday, Dec. 26

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens50%
BengalsPK50%
Quality
78
Importance
97
Overall
88
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills40%
Patriots-360%
Quality
94
Importance
80
Overall
87
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions25%
Falcons-7.575%
Quality
0
Importance
4
Overall
2
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars37%
Jets-3.563%
Quality
0
Importance
1
Overall
1
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-6.572%
Texans28%
Quality
9
Importance
33
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams46%
Vikings-154%
Quality
67
Importance
97
Overall
82
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants37%
Eagles-3.563%
Quality
28
Importance
61
Overall
45
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-567%
Panthers33%
Quality
70
Importance
44
Overall
57
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears33%
Seahawks-567%
Quality
17
Importance
4
Overall
11
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos48%
Raiders-0.552%
Quality
33
Importance
92
Overall
63
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers21%
Chiefs-9.579%
Quality
68
Importance
39
Overall
54
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington30%
Cowboys-670%
Quality
57
Importance
62
Overall
60

Monday, Dec. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-154%
Saints46%
Quality
36
Importance
35
Overall
36

Week 17

Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
CardinalsPK50%
Cowboys50%
Quality
88
Importance
82
Overall
85
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons16%
Bills-11.584%
Quality
45
Importance
28
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers45%
Saints-1.555%
Quality
21
Importance
34
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars9%
Patriots-16.591%
Quality
17
Importance
5
Overall
11
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.555%
Bengals45%
Quality
85
Importance
86
Overall
86
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins39%
Titans-361%
Quality
66
Importance
70
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants48%
Bears-0.552%
Quality
13
Importance
12
Overall
13
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders26%
Colts-7.574%
Quality
52
Importance
94
Overall
73
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles43%
Washington-257%
Quality
36
Importance
98
Overall
67
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-1183%
Jets17%
Quality
26
Importance
6
Overall
16
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos37%
Chargers-3.563%
Quality
53
Importance
99
Overall
76
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%
49ers-12.586%
Quality
13
Importance
13
Overall
13
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions18%
Seahawks-10.582%
Quality
1
Importance
1
Overall
1
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams36%
Ravens-464%
Quality
81
Importance
58
Overall
70
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings25%
Packers-7.575%
Quality
85
Importance
85
Overall
85

Monday, Jan. 3, 2022

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns49%
Steelers-0.551%
Quality
37
Importance
62
Overall
50

Week 18

Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers20%
Buccaneers-9.580%
Quality
70
Importance
30
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears26%
Vikings-774%
Quality
27
Importance
58
Overall
43
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals47%
Browns-153%
Quality
58
Importance
97
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-154%
Eagles46%
Quality
58
Importance
56
Overall
57
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-13.588%
Lions12%
Quality
16
Importance
11
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-9.580%
Jaguars20%
Quality
10
Importance
31
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-257%
Dolphins43%
Quality
82
Importance
68
Overall
75
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints48%
Falcons-0.552%
Quality
10
Importance
44
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets11%
Bills-14.589%
Quality
21
Importance
10
Overall
16
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers25%
Ravens-7.575%
Quality
58
Importance
56
Overall
57
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-7.574%
Texans26%
Quality
11
Importance
17
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington46%
Giants-154%
Quality
28
Importance
65
Overall
47
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-361%
Broncos39%
Quality
77
Importance
91
Overall
84
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-153%
Raiders47%
Quality
41
Importance
96
Overall
69
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks22%
Cardinals-978%
Quality
68
Importance
33
Overall
51
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers43%
Rams-257%
Quality
75
Importance
89
Overall
82

Completed

Week 12

Thursday, Nov. 25

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears-567%16
Lions33%14
Quality
1
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
1
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
1
An overall
rating for
this game
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders24%36
Cowboys-876%33
Quality
44
Importance
21
Overall
33
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-0.551%31
Saints49%6
Quality
71
Importance
87
Overall
79

Sunday, Nov. 28

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons-153%21
Jaguars47%14
Quality
1
Importance
3
Overall
2
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers44%10
Dolphins-256%33
Quality
48
Importance
32
Overall
40
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets34%21
Texans-4.566%14
Quality
0
Importance
1
Overall
1
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-1.555%7
Giants45%13
Quality
30
Importance
60
Overall
45
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers40%10
Bengals-360%41
Quality
47
Importance
92
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers46%38
Colts-154%31
Quality
91
Importance
71
Overall
81
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans38%13
Patriots-3.562%36
Quality
85
Importance
97
Overall
91
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-0.552%13
Broncos48%28
Quality
53
Importance
87
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams35%28
Packers-465%36
Quality
90
Importance
60
Overall
75
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings41%26
49ers-2.559%34
Quality
71
Importance
99
Overall
85
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns32%10
Ravens-568%16
Quality
74
Importance
92
Overall
83

Monday, Nov. 29

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks42%15
Washington-258%17
Quality
31
Importance
63
Overall
47

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 18

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-567%25
Falcons33%0
Quality
42
Importance
50
Overall
46

Sunday, Nov. 21

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens29%16
Bears-671%13
Quality
4
Importance
27
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions7%10
Browns-17.593%13
Quality
0
Importance
4
Overall
2
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-2.559%31
Vikings41%34
Quality
84
Importance
96
Overall
90
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans10%22
Titans-1590%13
Quality
17
Importance
9
Overall
13
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts29%41
Bills-671%15
Quality
86
Importance
72
Overall
79
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-258%24
Jets42%17
Quality
10
Importance
3
Overall
7
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints48%29
Eagles-0.552%40
Quality
52
Importance
97
Overall
75
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-671%30
Jaguars29%10
Quality
11
Importance
24
Overall
18
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington28%27
Panthers-6.572%21
Quality
34
Importance
61
Overall
48
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals47%32
Raiders-0.553%13
Quality
32
Importance
90
Overall
61
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals40%23
Seahawks-360%13
Quality
50
Importance
71
Overall
61
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys40%9
Chiefs-360%19
Quality
93
Importance
64
Overall
79
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers36%37
Chargers-464%41
Quality
56
Importance
94
Overall
75

Monday, Nov. 22

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants23%10
Buccaneers-8.577%30
Quality
59
Importance
17
Overall
38

Week 10

Thursday, Nov. 11

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-670%10
Dolphins30%22
Quality
47
Importance
20
Overall
34

Sunday, Nov. 14

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons23%3
Cowboys-8.577%43
Quality
52
Importance
31
Overall
42
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-1081%45
Jets19%17
Quality
28
Importance
11
Overall
20
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns44%7
Patriots-1.556%45
Quality
74
Importance
97
Overall
86
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions26%16
Steelers-7.574%16
Quality
0
Importance
18
Overall
9
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars17%17
Colts-1183%23
Quality
15
Importance
17
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints31%21
Titans-5.569%23
Quality
83
Importance
71
Overall
77
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-9.579%19
Washington21%29
Quality
50
Importance
18
Overall
34
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers15%34
Cardinals-1285%10
Quality
20
Importance
32
Overall
26
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings31%27
Chargers-5.569%20
Quality
64
Importance
62
Overall
63
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles32%30
Broncos-568%13
Quality
35
Importance
61
Overall
48
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks33%0
Packers-567%17
Quality
85
Importance
71
Overall
78
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-154%41
Raiders46%14
Quality
65
Importance
98
Overall
82

Monday, Nov. 15

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-360%10
49ers40%31
Quality
72
Importance
55
Overall
64

Week 9

Thursday, Nov. 4

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets19%30
Colts-1081%45
Quality
13
Importance
20
Overall
17

Sunday, Nov. 7

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons25%27
Saints-875%25
Quality
34
Importance
49
Overall
42
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-12.586%6
Jaguars14%9
Quality
30
Importance
10
Overall
20
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns41%41
Bengals-2.559%16
Quality
61
Importance
95
Overall
78
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos20%30
Cowboys-9.580%16
Quality
71
Importance
29
Overall
50
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans30%9
Dolphins-670%17
Quality
1
Importance
2
Overall
2
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings26%31
Ravens-774%34
Quality
71
Importance
48
Overall
60
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-154%24
Panthers46%6
Quality
36
Importance
66
Overall
51
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders-2.559%16
Giants41%23
Quality
32
Importance
39
Overall
36
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-154%27
Eagles46%24
Quality
47
Importance
74
Overall
61
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals43%31
49ers-257%17
Quality
60
Importance
72
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers33%7
Chiefs-567%13
Quality
67
Importance
72
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans32%28
Rams-5.568%16
Quality
94
Importance
59
Overall
77

Monday, Nov. 8

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears31%27
Steelers-5.569%29
Quality
26
Importance
38
Overall
32

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 28

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers38%24
Cardinals-3.562%21
Quality
95
Importance
82
Overall
89

Sunday, Oct. 31

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers37%19
Falcons-3.563%13
Quality
15
Importance
31
Overall
23
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-876%31
Jets24%34
Quality
10
Importance
17
Overall
14
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-1488%38
Texans12%22
Quality
11
Importance
4
Overall
8
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins13%11
Bills-13.587%26
Quality
62
Importance
10
Overall
36
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-3.562%44
Lions38%6
Quality
1
Importance
10
Overall
6
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers36%15
Browns-464%10
Quality
55
Importance
88
Overall
72
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers49%33
Bears-0.551%22
Quality
26
Importance
51
Overall
39
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans46%34
Colts-154%31
Quality
75
Importance
89
Overall
82
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars27%7
Seahawks-773%31
Quality
4
Importance
9
Overall
7
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots28%27
Chargers-6.572%24
Quality
68
Importance
66
Overall
67
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-2.558%27
Saints42%36
Quality
95
Importance
83
Overall
89
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington33%10
Broncos-567%17
Quality
12
Importance
23
Overall
18
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys20%20
Vikings-9.580%16
Quality
18
Importance
34
Overall
26

Monday, Nov. 1

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants24%17
Chiefs-876%20
Quality
46
Importance
30
Overall
38

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 21

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos35%14
Browns-4.565%17
Quality
41
Importance
85
Overall
63

Sunday, Oct. 24

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons48%30
Dolphins-0.552%28
Quality
14
Importance
19
Overall
17
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers50%3
GiantsPK50%25
Quality
13
Importance
18
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals22%41
Ravens-978%17
Quality
80
Importance
59
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.555%3
Titans45%27
Quality
82
Importance
57
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets26%13
Patriots-7.574%54
Quality
7
Importance
18
Overall
13
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington16%10
Packers-11.584%24
Quality
41
Importance
16
Overall
29
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions8%19
Rams-16.592%28
Quality
21
Importance
2
Overall
12
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles34%22
Raiders-4.566%33
Quality
33
Importance
57
Overall
45
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears15%3
Buccaneers-1285%38
Quality
75
Importance
21
Overall
48
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans6%5
Cardinals-1994%31
Quality
10
Importance
3
Overall
7
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts34%30
49ers-4.566%18
Quality
56
Importance
66
Overall
61

Monday, Oct. 25

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-2.559%13
Seahawks41%10
Quality
54
Importance
93
Overall
74

Week 6

Thursday, Oct. 14

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-671%28
Eagles29%22
Quality
76
Importance
54
Overall
65

Sunday, Oct. 17

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-568%20
Jaguars32%23
Quality
1
Importance
11
Overall
6
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-464%34
Lions36%11
Quality
5
Importance
23
Overall
14
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-360%24
Bears40%14
Quality
60
Importance
80
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%3
Colts-12.586%31
Quality
1
Importance
16
Overall
9
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-671%31
Washington29%13
Quality
45
Importance
49
Overall
47
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers36%6
Ravens-464%34
Quality
94
Importance
89
Overall
92
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-568%38
Giants32%11
Quality
57
Importance
25
Overall
41
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings45%34
Panthers-1.555%28
Quality
42
Importance
74
Overall
58
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals46%37
Browns-154%14
Quality
88
Importance
68
Overall
78
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-154%35
Patriots46%29
Quality
68
Importance
50
Overall
59
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders37%34
Broncos-463%24
Quality
37
Importance
89
Overall
63
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks42%20
Steelers-2.558%23
Quality
32
Importance
54
Overall
43

Monday, Oct. 18

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-4.565%31
Titans35%34
Quality
87
Importance
73
Overall
80

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 7

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams46%26
Seahawks-154%17
Quality
84
Importance
90
Overall
87

Sunday, Oct. 10

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets41%20
Falcons-2.559%27
Quality
3
Importance
11
Overall
7
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-153%19
Steelers47%27
Quality
36
Importance
57
Overall
47
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions21%17
Vikings-979%19
Quality
10
Importance
12
Overall
11
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-1.556%25
Bengals44%22
Quality
63
Importance
61
Overall
62
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins19%17
Buccaneers-1081%45
Quality
72
Importance
22
Overall
47
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-876%25
Texans24%22
Quality
1
Importance
18
Overall
10
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-360%33
Washington40%22
Quality
35
Importance
81
Overall
58
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles33%21
Panthers-567%18
Quality
34
Importance
65
Overall
50
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-5.568%37
Jaguars32%19
Quality
7
Importance
37
Overall
22
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears30%20
Raiders-5.570%9
Quality
30
Importance
47
Overall
39
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns41%42
Chargers-2.559%47
Quality
85
Importance
69
Overall
77
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants26%20
Cowboys-774%44
Quality
53
Importance
53
Overall
53
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers30%10
Cardinals-670%17
Quality
78
Importance
70
Overall
74
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills40%38
Chiefs-2.560%20
Quality
97
Importance
72
Overall
85

Monday, Oct. 11

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts27%25
Ravens-773%31
Quality
73
Importance
56
Overall
65

Week 4

Thursday, Sept. 30

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars22%21
Bengals-8.578%24
Quality
4
Importance
17
Overall
11

Sunday, Oct. 3

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers37%28
Cowboys-3.563%36
Quality
67
Importance
71
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns47%14
Vikings-0.553%7
Quality
74
Importance
71
Overall
73
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions34%14
Bears-4.566%24
Quality
3
Importance
16
Overall
10
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans7%0
Bills-1893%40
Quality
10
Importance
3
Overall
7
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts37%27
Dolphins-3.563%17
Quality
34
Importance
67
Overall
51
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.566%42
Eagles34%30
Quality
64
Importance
58
Overall
61
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants21%27
Saints-979%21
Quality
40
Importance
25
Overall
33
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-670%24
Jets30%27
Quality
12
Importance
16
Overall
14
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington35%34
Falcons-4.565%30
Quality
7
Importance
31
Overall
19
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals32%37
Rams-568%20
Quality
89
Importance
70
Overall
80
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks38%28
49ers-3.562%21
Quality
74
Importance
89
Overall
82
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens44%23
Broncos-1.556%7
Quality
81
Importance
84
Overall
83
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers27%17
Packers-773%27
Quality
53
Importance
35
Overall
44
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-464%19
Patriots36%17
Quality
79
Importance
50
Overall
65

Monday, Oct. 4

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders38%14
Chargers-3.562%28
Quality
72
Importance
85
Overall
79

Week 3

Thursday, Sept. 23

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers-876%24
Texans24%9
Quality
2
Importance
24
Overall
13

Sunday, Sept. 26

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-6.572%31
Jaguars28%19
Quality
15
Importance
28
Overall
22
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons39%17
Giants-361%14
Quality
11
Importance
19
Overall
15
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-773%19
Lions27%17
Quality
28
Importance
25
Overall
27
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%6
Browns-773%26
Quality
49
Importance
46
Overall
48
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals32%24
Steelers-5.568%10
Quality
29
Importance
57
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts38%16
Titans-3.562%25
Quality
45
Importance
97
Overall
71
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers25%30
Chiefs-875%24
Quality
86
Importance
56
Overall
71
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints44%28
Patriots-1.556%13
Quality
66
Importance
72
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington15%21
Bills-1285%43
Quality
38
Importance
19
Overall
29
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins37%28
Raiders-463%31
Quality
54
Importance
88
Overall
71
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets17%0
Broncos-1183%26
Quality
19
Importance
17
Overall
18
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
SeahawksPK50%17
Vikings50%30
Quality
65
Importance
74
Overall
70
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers49%24
RamsPK51%34
Quality
96
Importance
88
Overall
92
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers37%30
49ers-463%28
Quality
80
Importance
68
Overall
74

Monday, Sept. 27

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles32%21
Cowboys-568%41
Quality
49
Importance
90
Overall
70

Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 16

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants-153%29
Washington47%30
Quality
4
Importance
48
Overall
26

Sunday, Sept. 19

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills50%35
DolphinsPK50%0
Quality
74
Importance
91
Overall
83
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals43%17
Bears-257%20
Quality
20
Importance
49
Overall
35
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-5.568%23
Jaguars32%13
Quality
18
Importance
45
Overall
32
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%21
Browns-12.586%31
Quality
13
Importance
16
Overall
15
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-256%27
Colts44%24
Quality
68
Importance
64
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-361%25
Jets39%6
Quality
18
Importance
52
Overall
35
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-361%7
Panthers39%26
Quality
60
Importance
77
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders34%26
Steelers-4.566%17
Quality
53
Importance
78
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-0.552%17
Eagles48%11
Quality
59
Importance
79
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons15%25
Buccaneers-1285%48
Quality
60
Importance
19
Overall
40
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%33
Cardinals-464%34
Quality
58
Importance
73
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys39%20
Chargers-361%17
Quality
66
Importance
66
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans29%33
Seahawks-6.571%30
Quality
66
Importance
52
Overall
59
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.555%35
Ravens45%36
Quality
93
Importance
81
Overall
87

Monday, Sept. 20

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions20%17
Packers-9.580%35
Quality
21
Importance
33
Overall
27

Week 1

Thursday, Sept. 9

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys26%29
Buccaneers-774%31
Quality
85
Importance
48
Overall
67

Sunday, Sept. 12

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals34%38
Titans-4.566%13
Quality
56
Importance
59
Overall
58
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-2.559%21
Texans41%37
Quality
0
Importance
17
Overall
9
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers42%20
Washington-258%16
Quality
58
Importance
67
Overall
63
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-153%24
Bengals47%27
Quality
33
Importance
57
Overall
45
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets35%14
Panthers-4.565%19
Quality
12
Importance
36
Overall
24
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles36%32
Falcons-464%6
Quality
21
Importance
57
Overall
39
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers28%23
Bills-6.572%16
Quality
78
Importance
58
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks48%28
Colts-0.552%16
Quality
63
Importance
73
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-4.566%41
Lions34%33
Quality
23
Importance
45
Overall
34
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns32%29
Chiefs-5.568%33
Quality
90
Importance
60
Overall
75
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BroncosPK50%27
Giants50%13
Quality
34
Importance
60
Overall
47
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-2.559%3
Saints41%38
Quality
80
Importance
74
Overall
77
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins43%17
Patriots-257%16
Quality
54
Importance
90
Overall
72
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%14
Rams-773%34
Quality
54
Importance
54
Overall
54

Monday, Sept. 13

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-360%27
Raiders40%33
Quality
60
Importance
65
Overall
63

Quarterback ratings

The top quarterbacks for each team and their value in Elo points, which are used in our quarterback-adjusted model. Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running. Initial rookie ratings are based on draft position; undrafted rookies begin their careers with an Elo value of zero, while a first overall draft pick starts with an Elo value of 113.

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West