2021 NFL Predictions
For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.
More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?
elo with top qb elo rating | 1-week change | current qb adj. | team | division | make div. round | make conf. champ | make super bowl | win super bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1662 | +5 | Rams16-5 | NFC West | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |
| 1592 | Bengals13-8 | AFC North | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | ||
| 1701 | Chiefs14-6 | AFC West | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ||
| 1615 | 49ers12-8 | NFC West | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ||
| 1669 | Bills12-7 | AFC East | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1645 | Packers13-5 | NFC North | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1634 | Buccaneers14-5 | NFC South | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1564 | Titans12-6 | AFC South | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1600 | Cowboys12-6 | NFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1553 | Patriots10-8 | AFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1493 | Eagles9-9 | NFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1492 | Cardinals11-7 | NFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1481 | Steelers9-8-1 | AFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1467 | Raiders10-8 | AFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1548 | Dolphins9-8 | AFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1538 | Saints9-8 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1529 | Colts9-8 | AFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1527 | Seahawks7-10 | NFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1519 | Ravens8-9 | AFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1513 | Chargers9-8 | AFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1511 | Vikings8-9 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1461 | Browns8-9 | AFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1439 | Washington7-10 | NFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1418 | Broncos7-10 | AFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1407 | Bears6-11 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1391 | Giants4-13 | NFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1374 | Falcons7-10 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1348 | Texans4-13 | AFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1337 | Panthers5-12 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1324 | Lions3-13-1 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1280 | Jets4-13 | AFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1276 | Jaguars3-14 | AFC South | — | — | — | — |
Completed
Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 13
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -5.5 | 68% | 23 |
| Bengals | 32% | 20 |
Quality 95 How good are these two teams | Importance 100 How much will this game affect playoff odds | Overall 98 An overall rating for this game |
Conference championships
Sunday, Jan. 30
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 19% | 27 | |
| Chiefs | -10 | 81% | 24 |
Quality 98 | Importance 100 | Overall 99 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 36% | 17 | |
| Rams | -4 | 64% | 20 |
Quality 96 | Importance 100 | Overall 98 |
Divisional round
Saturday, Jan. 22
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 34% | 19 | |
| Titans | -4.5 | 66% | 16 |
Quality 85 | Importance 100 | Overall 93 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 25% | 13 | |
| Packers | -7.5 | 75% | 10 |
Quality 97 | Importance 100 | Overall 99 |
Sunday, Jan. 23
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 32% | 30 | |
| Buccaneers | -5.5 | 68% | 27 |
Quality 96 | Importance 100 | Overall 98 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 35% | 36 | |
| Chiefs | -4.5 | 65% | 42 |
Quality 100 | Importance 100 | Overall 100 |
Wild-card round
Saturday, Jan. 15
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 26% | 19 | |
| Bengals | -7.5 | 74% | 26 |
Quality 61 | Importance 100 | Overall 81 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 30% | 17 | |
| Bills | -6 | 70% | 47 |
Quality 90 | Importance 100 | Overall 95 |
Sunday, Jan. 16
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 19% | 15 | |
| Buccaneers | -10 | 81% | 31 |
Quality 83 | Importance 100 | Overall 92 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 31% | 23 | |
| Cowboys | -5.5 | 69% | 17 |
Quality 91 | Importance 100 | Overall 96 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 14% | 21 | |
| Chiefs | -12.5 | 86% | 42 |
Quality 85 | Importance 100 | Overall 93 |
Monday, Jan. 17
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 30% | 11 | |
| Rams | -6 | 70% | 34 |
Quality 76 | Importance 100 | Overall 88 |
Week 18
Saturday, Jan. 8
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -7.5 | 74% | 28 |
| Broncos | 26% | 24 |
Quality 72 | Importance 22 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -0.5 | 52% | 51 |
| Eagles | 48% | 26 |
Quality 76 | Importance 2 | Overall 39 |
Sunday, Jan. 9
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 32% | 17 | |
| Vikings | -5 | 68% | 31 |
Quality 26 | Importance 0 | Overall 13 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 28% | 16 | |
| Browns | -6.5 | 72% | 21 |
Quality 25 | Importance 2 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -2 | 57% | 30 |
| Lions | 43% | 37 |
Quality 38 | Importance 1 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -13 | 87% | 11 |
| Jaguars | 13% | 26 |
Quality 3 | Importance 61 | Overall 32 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | PK | 50% | 16 |
| Ravens | 50% | 13 |
Quality 20 | Importance 15 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -7 | 73% | 28 |
| Texans | 27% | 25 |
Quality 22 | Importance 100 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | -2 | 57% | 22 |
| Giants | 43% | 7 |
Quality 2 | Importance 0 | Overall 1 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11% | 17 | |
| Buccaneers | -14.5 | 89% | 41 |
Quality 34 | Importance 1 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -0.5 | 52% | 24 |
| Dolphins | 48% | 33 |
Quality 75 | Importance 6 | Overall 41 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -2.5 | 59% | 30 |
| Falcons | 41% | 20 |
Quality 25 | Importance 95 | Overall 60 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 9% | 10 | |
| Bills | -16 | 91% | 27 |
Quality 20 | Importance 18 | Overall 19 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 33% | 38 | |
| Cardinals | -5 | 67% | 30 |
Quality 61 | Importance 41 | Overall 51 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 34% | 27 | |
| Rams | -4.5 | 66% | 24 |
Quality 86 | Importance 100 | Overall 93 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -0.5 | 51% | 32 |
| Raiders | 49% | 35 |
Quality 49 | Importance 100 | Overall 75 |
Week 17
Sunday, Jan. 2
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 16% | 15 | |
| Bills | -11.5 | 84% | 29 |
Quality 55 | Importance 44 | Overall 50 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 8% | 10 | |
| Patriots | -17 | 92% | 50 |
Quality 3 | Importance 12 | Overall 8 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -3.5 | 63% | 31 |
| Bengals | 37% | 34 |
Quality 93 | Importance 99 | Overall 96 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -5.5 | 69% | 20 |
| Ravens | 31% | 19 |
Quality 50 | Importance 99 | Overall 75 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 45% | 3 | |
| Titans | -1.5 | 55% | 34 |
Quality 73 | Importance 100 | Overall 87 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 39% | 3 | |
| Bears | -3 | 61% | 29 |
Quality 6 | Importance 0 | Overall 3 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 20% | 23 | |
| Colts | -9.5 | 80% | 20 |
Quality 64 | Importance 62 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -1.5 | 55% | 20 |
| Washington | 45% | 16 |
Quality 35 | Importance 98 | Overall 67 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -11 | 83% | 28 |
| Jets | 17% | 24 |
Quality 21 | Importance 2 | Overall 12 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 34% | 13 | |
| Chargers | -4.5 | 66% | 34 |
Quality 39 | Importance 49 | Overall 44 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 21% | 7 | |
| 49ers | -9 | 79% | 23 |
Quality 18 | Importance 16 | Overall 17 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 31% | 25 | |
| Cowboys | -5.5 | 69% | 22 |
Quality 81 | Importance 42 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 24% | 10 | |
| Saints | -8 | 76% | 18 |
Quality 14 | Importance 31 | Overall 23 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 12% | 29 | |
| Seahawks | -14 | 88% | 51 |
Quality 0 | Importance 0 | Overall 0 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 11% | 10 | |
| Packers | -14.5 | 89% | 37 |
Quality 51 | Importance 19 | Overall 35 |
Monday, Jan. 3
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 47% | 14 | |
| Steelers | -1 | 53% | 26 |
Quality 34 | Importance 3 | Overall 19 |
Week 16
Thursday, Dec. 23, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 47% | 17 | |
| Titans | -1 | 53% | 20 |
Quality 71 | Importance 67 | Overall 69 |
Saturday, Dec. 25, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 22% | 22 | |
| Packers | -8.5 | 78% | 24 |
Quality 84 | Importance 78 | Overall 81 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 49% | 22 | |
| Cardinals | PK | 51% | 16 |
Quality 82 | Importance 17 | Overall 50 |
Sunday, Dec. 26, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 28% | 21 | |
| Bengals | -6.5 | 72% | 41 |
Quality 24 | Importance 99 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 38% | 33 | |
| Patriots | -3.5 | 62% | 21 |
Quality 91 | Importance 97 | Overall 94 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 17% | 16 | |
| Falcons | -11 | 83% | 20 |
Quality 0 | Importance 1 | Overall 1 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 35% | 21 | |
| Jets | -4.5 | 65% | 26 |
Quality 0 | Importance 0 | Overall 0 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -8 | 75% | 29 |
| Texans | 25% | 41 |
Quality 13 | Importance 34 | Overall 24 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -1 | 54% | 30 |
| Vikings | 46% | 23 |
Quality 76 | Importance 63 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 21% | 10 | |
| Eagles | -9 | 79% | 34 |
Quality 13 | Importance 31 | Overall 22 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -6 | 70% | 32 |
| Panthers | 30% | 6 |
Quality 51 | Importance 2 | Overall 27 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 32% | 25 | |
| Seahawks | -5 | 68% | 24 |
Quality 25 | Importance 1 | Overall 13 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 47% | 13 | |
| Raiders | -1 | 53% | 17 |
Quality 25 | Importance 34 | Overall 30 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 18% | 10 | |
| Chiefs | -10.5 | 82% | 36 |
Quality 80 | Importance 79 | Overall 80 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 25% | 14 | |
| Cowboys | -7.5 | 75% | 56 |
Quality 58 | Importance 37 | Overall 48 |
Monday, Dec. 27, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 49% | 20 | |
| Saints | PK | 51% | 3 |
Quality 54 | Importance 96 | Overall 75 |
Week 15
Thursday, Dec. 16, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -0.5 | 51% | 34 |
| Chargers | 49% | 28 |
Quality 93 | Importance 84 | Overall 89 |
Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 50% | 17 | |
| Colts | PK | 50% | 27 |
Quality 92 | Importance 99 | Overall 96 |
Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -11.5 | 84% | 12 |
| Lions | 16% | 30 |
Quality 13 | Importance 3 | Overall 8 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 22% | 14 | |
| Bills | -9 | 78% | 31 |
Quality 49 | Importance 33 | Overall 41 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -4 | 63% | 21 |
| Giants | 37% | 6 |
Quality 42 | Importance 6 | Overall 24 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 44% | 30 | |
| Jaguars | -1.5 | 56% | 16 |
Quality 0 | Importance 0 | Overall 0 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 12% | 24 | |
| Dolphins | -14 | 88% | 31 |
Quality 6 | Importance 3 | Overall 5 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -1.5 | 55% | 13 |
| Steelers | 45% | 19 |
Quality 48 | Importance 87 | Overall 68 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 24% | 13 | |
| 49ers | -8 | 76% | 31 |
Quality 38 | Importance 97 | Overall 68 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 41% | 15 | |
| Broncos | -2.5 | 59% | 10 |
Quality 43 | Importance 90 | Overall 67 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -8.5 | 77% | 31 |
| Ravens | 23% | 30 |
Quality 58 | Importance 89 | Overall 74 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 18% | 9 | |
| Buccaneers | -10.5 | 82% | 0 |
Quality 79 | Importance 55 | Overall 67 |
Monday, Dec. 20, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 28% | 16 | |
| Browns | -6.5 | 72% | 14 |
Quality 32 | Importance 51 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -2.5 | 59% | 17 |
| Bears | 41% | 9 |
Quality 22 | Importance 33 | Overall 28 |
Tuesday, Dec. 21, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 30% | 10 | |
| Rams | -6 | 70% | 20 |
Quality 74 | Importance 14 | Overall 44 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 26% | 17 | |
| Eagles | -7 | 74% | 27 |
Quality 20 | Importance 83 | Overall 52 |
Week 14
Thursday, Dec. 9, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 37% | 28 | |
| Vikings | -3.5 | 63% | 36 |
Quality 41 | Importance 74 | Overall 58 |
Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 28% | 29 | |
| Panthers | -6.5 | 72% | 21 |
Quality 12 | Importance 14 | Overall 13 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 49% | 22 | |
| Browns | -0.5 | 51% | 24 |
Quality 68 | Importance 89 | Overall 79 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -0.5 | 52% | 27 |
| Washington | 48% | 20 |
Quality 62 | Importance 65 | Overall 64 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 11% | 0 | |
| Titans | -14.5 | 89% | 20 |
Quality 6 | Importance 5 | Overall 6 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -3 | 61% | 30 |
| Jets | 39% | 9 |
Quality 2 | Importance 12 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18% | 9 | |
| Chiefs | -10.5 | 82% | 48 |
Quality 63 | Importance 32 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -6 | 71% | 33 |
| Texans | 29% | 13 |
Quality 3 | Importance 2 | Overall 3 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 18% | 10 | |
| Broncos | -10.5 | 82% | 38 |
Quality 3 | Importance 6 | Overall 5 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 23% | 21 | |
| Chargers | -8 | 77% | 37 |
Quality 44 | Importance 30 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 33% | 27 | |
| Buccaneers | -5 | 67% | 33 |
Quality 94 | Importance 69 | Overall 82 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 46% | 26 | |
| Bengals | -1 | 54% | 23 |
Quality 58 | Importance 96 | Overall 77 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 12% | 30 | |
| Packers | -13.5 | 88% | 45 |
Quality 53 | Importance 11 | Overall 32 |
Monday, Dec. 13, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 31% | 30 | |
| Cardinals | -5.5 | 69% | 23 |
Quality 90 | Importance 74 | Overall 82 |
Week 13
Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -1.5 | 56% | 27 |
| Saints | 44% | 17 |
Quality 47 | Importance 83 | Overall 65 |
Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -5.5 | 69% | 33 |
| Bears | 31% | 22 |
Quality 64 | Importance 50 | Overall 57 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -8.5 | 77% | 31 |
| Texans | 23% | 0 |
Quality 15 | Importance 35 | Overall 25 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 40% | 41 | |
| Bengals | -3 | 60% | 22 |
Quality 64 | Importance 99 | Overall 82 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -8 | 77% | 27 |
| Lions | 23% | 29 |
Quality 4 | Importance 30 | Overall 17 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 32% | 9 | |
| Dolphins | -5.5 | 68% | 20 |
Quality 40 | Importance 16 | Overall 28 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -4 | 64% | 33 |
| Jets | 36% | 18 |
Quality 4 | Importance 18 | Overall 11 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -7.5 | 75% | 30 |
| Falcons | 25% | 17 |
Quality 50 | Importance 33 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 12% | 7 | |
| Rams | -13.5 | 88% | 37 |
Quality 7 | Importance 5 | Overall 6 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 45% | 17 | |
| Raiders | -1.5 | 55% | 15 |
Quality 29 | Importance 74 | Overall 52 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3 | 61% | 19 |
| Steelers | 39% | 20 |
Quality 58 | Importance 69 | Overall 64 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -1.5 | 56% | 23 |
| Seahawks | 44% | 30 |
Quality 54 | Importance 49 | Overall 52 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 22% | 9 | |
| Chiefs | -8.5 | 78% | 22 |
Quality 77 | Importance 79 | Overall 78 |
Monday, Dec. 6, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 44% | 14 | |
| Bills | -1.5 | 56% | 10 |
Quality 94 | Importance 95 | Overall 95 |
Week 12
Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | -5 | 67% | 16 |
| Lions | 33% | 14 |
Quality 1 | Importance 1 | Overall 1 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 24% | 36 | |
| Cowboys | -8 | 76% | 33 |
Quality 44 | Importance 21 | Overall 33 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -0.5 | 51% | 31 |
| Saints | 49% | 6 |
Quality 71 | Importance 87 | Overall 79 |
Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -1 | 53% | 21 |
| Jaguars | 47% | 14 |
Quality 1 | Importance 3 | Overall 2 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 44% | 10 | |
| Dolphins | -2 | 56% | 33 |
Quality 48 | Importance 32 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 34% | 21 | |
| Texans | -4.5 | 66% | 14 |
Quality 0 | Importance 1 | Overall 1 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -1.5 | 55% | 7 |
| Giants | 45% | 13 |
Quality 30 | Importance 60 | Overall 45 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 40% | 10 | |
| Bengals | -3 | 60% | 41 |
Quality 47 | Importance 92 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 46% | 38 | |
| Colts | -1 | 54% | 31 |
Quality 91 | Importance 71 | Overall 81 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 38% | 13 | |
| Patriots | -3.5 | 62% | 36 |
Quality 85 | Importance 97 | Overall 91 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -0.5 | 52% | 13 |
| Broncos | 48% | 28 |
Quality 53 | Importance 87 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 35% | 28 | |
| Packers | -4 | 65% | 36 |
Quality 90 | Importance 60 | Overall 75 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 41% | 26 | |
| 49ers | -2.5 | 59% | 34 |
Quality 71 | Importance 99 | Overall 85 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 32% | 10 | |
| Ravens | -5 | 68% | 16 |
Quality 74 | Importance 92 | Overall 83 |
Monday, Nov. 29, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 42% | 15 | |
| Washington | -2 | 58% | 17 |
Quality 31 | Importance 63 | Overall 47 |
Week 11
Thursday, Nov. 18, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -5 | 67% | 25 |
| Falcons | 33% | 0 |
Quality 42 | Importance 50 | Overall 46 |
Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 29% | 16 | |
| Bears | -6 | 71% | 13 |
Quality 4 | Importance 27 | Overall 16 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 7% | 10 | |
| Browns | -17.5 | 93% | 13 |
Quality 0 | Importance 4 | Overall 2 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -2.5 | 59% | 31 |
| Vikings | 41% | 34 |
Quality 84 | Importance 96 | Overall 90 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 10% | 22 | |
| Titans | -15 | 90% | 13 |
Quality 17 | Importance 9 | Overall 13 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 29% | 41 | |
| Bills | -6 | 71% | 15 |
Quality 86 | Importance 72 | Overall 79 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -2 | 58% | 24 |
| Jets | 42% | 17 |
Quality 10 | Importance 3 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 48% | 29 | |
| Eagles | -0.5 | 52% | 40 |
Quality 52 | Importance 97 | Overall 75 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -6 | 71% | 30 |
| Jaguars | 29% | 10 |
Quality 11 | Importance 24 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 28% | 27 | |
| Panthers | -6.5 | 72% | 21 |
Quality 34 | Importance 61 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 47% | 32 | |
| Raiders | -0.5 | 53% | 13 |
Quality 32 | Importance 90 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 40% | 23 | |
| Seahawks | -3 | 60% | 13 |
Quality 50 | Importance 71 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 40% | 9 | |
| Chiefs | -3 | 60% | 19 |
Quality 93 | Importance 64 | Overall 79 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 36% | 37 | |
| Chargers | -4 | 64% | 41 |
Quality 56 | Importance 94 | Overall 75 |
Monday, Nov. 22, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 23% | 10 | |
| Buccaneers | -8.5 | 77% | 30 |
Quality 59 | Importance 17 | Overall 38 |
Week 10
Thursday, Nov. 11, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -6 | 70% | 10 |
| Dolphins | 30% | 22 |
Quality 47 | Importance 20 | Overall 34 |
Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 23% | 3 | |
| Cowboys | -8.5 | 77% | 43 |
Quality 52 | Importance 31 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -10 | 81% | 45 |
| Jets | 19% | 17 |
Quality 28 | Importance 11 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 44% | 7 | |
| Patriots | -1.5 | 56% | 45 |
Quality 74 | Importance 97 | Overall 86 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 26% | 16 | |
| Steelers | -7.5 | 74% | 16 |
Quality 0 | Importance 18 | Overall 9 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 17% | 17 | |
| Colts | -11 | 83% | 23 |
Quality 15 | Importance 17 | Overall 16 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 31% | 21 | |
| Titans | -5.5 | 69% | 23 |
Quality 83 | Importance 71 | Overall 77 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -9.5 | 79% | 19 |
| Washington | 21% | 29 |
Quality 50 | Importance 18 | Overall 34 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 15% | 34 | |
| Cardinals | -12 | 85% | 10 |
Quality 20 | Importance 32 | Overall 26 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 31% | 27 | |
| Chargers | -5.5 | 69% | 20 |
Quality 64 | Importance 62 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 32% | 30 | |
| Broncos | -5 | 68% | 13 |
Quality 35 | Importance 61 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 33% | 0 | |
| Packers | -5 | 67% | 17 |
Quality 85 | Importance 71 | Overall 78 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -1 | 54% | 41 |
| Raiders | 46% | 14 |
Quality 65 | Importance 98 | Overall 82 |
Monday, Nov. 15, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -3 | 60% | 10 |
| 49ers | 40% | 31 |
Quality 72 | Importance 55 | Overall 64 |
Week 9
Thursday, Nov. 4, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 19% | 30 | |
| Colts | -10 | 81% | 45 |
Quality 13 | Importance 20 | Overall 17 |
Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 25% | 27 | |
| Saints | -8 | 75% | 25 |
Quality 34 | Importance 49 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -12.5 | 86% | 6 |
| Jaguars | 14% | 9 |
Quality 30 | Importance 10 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 41% | 41 | |
| Bengals | -2.5 | 59% | 16 |
Quality 61 | Importance 95 | Overall 78 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 20% | 30 | |
| Cowboys | -9.5 | 80% | 16 |
Quality 71 | Importance 29 | Overall 50 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 30% | 9 | |
| Dolphins | -6 | 70% | 17 |
Quality 1 | Importance 2 | Overall 2 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 26% | 31 | |
| Ravens | -7 | 74% | 34 |
Quality 71 | Importance 48 | Overall 60 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -1 | 54% | 24 |
| Panthers | 46% | 6 |
Quality 36 | Importance 66 | Overall 51 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | -2.5 | 59% | 16 |
| Giants | 41% | 23 |
Quality 32 | Importance 39 | Overall 36 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -1 | 54% | 27 |
| Eagles | 46% | 24 |
Quality 47 | Importance 74 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 43% | 31 | |
| 49ers | -2 | 57% | 17 |
Quality 60 | Importance 72 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 33% | 7 | |
| Chiefs | -5 | 67% | 13 |
Quality 67 | Importance 72 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 32% | 28 | |
| Rams | -5.5 | 68% | 16 |
Quality 94 | Importance 59 | Overall 77 |
Monday, Nov. 8, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 31% | 27 | |
| Steelers | -5.5 | 69% | 29 |
Quality 26 | Importance 38 | Overall 32 |
Week 8
Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 38% | 24 | |
| Cardinals | -3.5 | 62% | 21 |
Quality 95 | Importance 82 | Overall 89 |
Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 37% | 19 | |
| Falcons | -3.5 | 63% | 13 |
Quality 15 | Importance 31 | Overall 23 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -8 | 76% | 31 |
| Jets | 24% | 34 |
Quality 10 | Importance 17 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -14 | 88% | 38 |
| Texans | 12% | 22 |
Quality 11 | Importance 4 | Overall 8 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 13% | 11 | |
| Bills | -13.5 | 87% | 26 |
Quality 62 | Importance 10 | Overall 36 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -3.5 | 62% | 44 |
| Lions | 38% | 6 |
Quality 1 | Importance 10 | Overall 6 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 36% | 15 | |
| Browns | -4 | 64% | 10 |
Quality 55 | Importance 88 | Overall 72 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 49% | 33 | |
| Bears | -0.5 | 51% | 22 |
Quality 26 | Importance 51 | Overall 39 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 46% | 34 | |
| Colts | -1 | 54% | 31 |
Quality 75 | Importance 89 | Overall 82 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 27% | 7 | |
| Seahawks | -7 | 73% | 31 |
Quality 4 | Importance 9 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 28% | 27 | |
| Chargers | -6.5 | 72% | 24 |
Quality 68 | Importance 66 | Overall 67 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -2.5 | 58% | 27 |
| Saints | 42% | 36 |
Quality 95 | Importance 83 | Overall 89 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 33% | 10 | |
| Broncos | -5 | 67% | 17 |
Quality 12 | Importance 23 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 20% | 20 | |
| Vikings | -9.5 | 80% | 16 |
Quality 18 | Importance 34 | Overall 26 |
Monday, Nov. 1, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 24% | 17 | |
| Chiefs | -8 | 76% | 20 |
Quality 46 | Importance 30 | Overall 38 |
Week 7
Thursday, Oct. 21, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 35% | 14 | |
| Browns | -4.5 | 65% | 17 |
Quality 41 | Importance 85 | Overall 63 |
Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 48% | 30 | |
| Dolphins | -0.5 | 52% | 28 |
Quality 14 | Importance 19 | Overall 17 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 50% | 3 | |
| Giants | PK | 50% | 25 |
Quality 13 | Importance 18 | Overall 16 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 22% | 41 | |
| Ravens | -9 | 78% | 17 |
Quality 80 | Importance 59 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -1.5 | 55% | 3 |
| Titans | 45% | 27 |
Quality 82 | Importance 57 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 26% | 13 | |
| Patriots | -7.5 | 74% | 54 |
Quality 7 | Importance 18 | Overall 13 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 16% | 10 | |
| Packers | -11.5 | 84% | 24 |
Quality 41 | Importance 16 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 8% | 19 | |
| Rams | -16.5 | 92% | 28 |
Quality 21 | Importance 2 | Overall 12 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 34% | 22 | |
| Raiders | -4.5 | 66% | 33 |
Quality 33 | Importance 57 | Overall 45 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 15% | 3 | |
| Buccaneers | -12 | 85% | 38 |
Quality 75 | Importance 21 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 6% | 5 | |
| Cardinals | -19 | 94% | 31 |
Quality 10 | Importance 3 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 34% | 30 | |
| 49ers | -4.5 | 66% | 18 |
Quality 56 | Importance 66 | Overall 61 |
Monday, Oct. 25, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -2.5 | 59% | 13 |
| Seahawks | 41% | 10 |
Quality 54 | Importance 93 | Overall 74 |
Week 6
Thursday, Oct. 14, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -6 | 71% | 28 |
| Eagles | 29% | 22 |
Quality 76 | Importance 54 | Overall 65 |
Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -5 | 68% | 20 |
| Jaguars | 32% | 23 |
Quality 1 | Importance 11 | Overall 6 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -4 | 64% | 34 |
| Lions | 36% | 11 |
Quality 5 | Importance 23 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -3 | 60% | 24 |
| Bears | 40% | 14 |
Quality 60 | Importance 80 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 14% | 3 | |
| Colts | -12.5 | 86% | 31 |
Quality 1 | Importance 16 | Overall 9 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -6 | 71% | 31 |
| Washington | 29% | 13 |
Quality 45 | Importance 49 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 36% | 6 | |
| Ravens | -4 | 64% | 34 |
Quality 94 | Importance 89 | Overall 92 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -5 | 68% | 38 |
| Giants | 32% | 11 |
Quality 57 | Importance 25 | Overall 41 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 45% | 34 | |
| Panthers | -1.5 | 55% | 28 |
Quality 42 | Importance 74 | Overall 58 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 46% | 37 | |
| Browns | -1 | 54% | 14 |
Quality 88 | Importance 68 | Overall 78 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -1 | 54% | 35 |
| Patriots | 46% | 29 |
Quality 68 | Importance 50 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 37% | 34 | |
| Broncos | -4 | 63% | 24 |
Quality 37 | Importance 89 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 42% | 20 | |
| Steelers | -2.5 | 58% | 23 |
Quality 32 | Importance 54 | Overall 43 |
Monday, Oct. 18, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -4.5 | 65% | 31 |
| Titans | 35% | 34 |
Quality 87 | Importance 73 | Overall 80 |
Week 5
Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 46% | 26 | |
| Seahawks | -1 | 54% | 17 |
Quality 84 | Importance 90 | Overall 87 |
Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 41% | 20 | |
| Falcons | -2.5 | 59% | 27 |
Quality 3 | Importance 11 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -1 | 53% | 19 |
| Steelers | 47% | 27 |
Quality 36 | Importance 57 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 21% | 17 | |
| Vikings | -9 | 79% | 19 |
Quality 10 | Importance 12 | Overall 11 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -1.5 | 56% | 25 |
| Bengals | 44% | 22 |
Quality 63 | Importance 61 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 19% | 17 | |
| Buccaneers | -10 | 81% | 45 |
Quality 72 | Importance 22 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -8 | 76% | 25 |
| Texans | 24% | 22 |
Quality 1 | Importance 18 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -3 | 60% | 33 |
| Washington | 40% | 22 |
Quality 35 | Importance 81 | Overall 58 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 33% | 21 | |
| Panthers | -5 | 67% | 18 |
Quality 34 | Importance 65 | Overall 50 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -5.5 | 68% | 37 |
| Jaguars | 32% | 19 |
Quality 7 | Importance 37 | Overall 22 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 30% | 20 | |
| Raiders | -5.5 | 70% | 9 |
Quality 30 | Importance 47 | Overall 39 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 41% | 42 | |
| Chargers | -2.5 | 59% | 47 |
Quality 85 | Importance 69 | Overall 77 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 26% | 20 | |
| Cowboys | -7 | 74% | 44 |
Quality 53 | Importance 53 | Overall 53 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 30% | 10 | |
| Cardinals | -6 | 70% | 17 |
Quality 78 | Importance 70 | Overall 74 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 40% | 38 | |
| Chiefs | -2.5 | 60% | 20 |
Quality 97 | Importance 72 | Overall 85 |
Monday, Oct. 11, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 27% | 25 | |
| Ravens | -7 | 73% | 31 |
Quality 73 | Importance 56 | Overall 65 |
Week 4
Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 22% | 21 | |
| Bengals | -8.5 | 78% | 24 |
Quality 4 | Importance 17 | Overall 11 |
Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 37% | 28 | |
| Cowboys | -3.5 | 63% | 36 |
Quality 67 | Importance 71 | Overall 69 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 47% | 14 | |
| Vikings | -0.5 | 53% | 7 |
Quality 74 | Importance 71 | Overall 73 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 34% | 14 | |
| Bears | -4.5 | 66% | 24 |
Quality 3 | Importance 16 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 7% | 0 | |
| Bills | -18 | 93% | 40 |
Quality 10 | Importance 3 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 37% | 27 | |
| Dolphins | -3.5 | 63% | 17 |
Quality 34 | Importance 67 | Overall 51 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -4.5 | 66% | 42 |
| Eagles | 34% | 30 |
Quality 64 | Importance 58 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 21% | 27 | |
| Saints | -9 | 79% | 21 |
Quality 40 | Importance 25 | Overall 33 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -6 | 70% | 24 |
| Jets | 30% | 27 |
Quality 12 | Importance 16 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 35% | 34 | |
| Falcons | -4.5 | 65% | 30 |
Quality 7 | Importance 31 | Overall 19 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 32% | 37 | |
| Rams | -5 | 68% | 20 |
Quality 89 | Importance 70 | Overall 80 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 38% | 28 | |
| 49ers | -3.5 | 62% | 21 |
Quality 74 | Importance 89 | Overall 82 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 44% | 23 | |
| Broncos | -1.5 | 56% | 7 |
Quality 81 | Importance 84 | Overall 83 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 27% | 17 | |
| Packers | -7 | 73% | 27 |
Quality 53 | Importance 35 | Overall 44 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -4 | 64% | 19 |
| Patriots | 36% | 17 |
Quality 79 | Importance 50 | Overall 65 |
Monday, Oct. 4, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 38% | 14 | |
| Chargers | -3.5 | 62% | 28 |
Quality 72 | Importance 85 | Overall 79 |
Week 3
Thursday, Sept. 23, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | -8 | 76% | 24 |
| Texans | 24% | 9 |
Quality 2 | Importance 24 | Overall 13 |
Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -6.5 | 72% | 31 |
| Jaguars | 28% | 19 |
Quality 15 | Importance 28 | Overall 22 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 39% | 17 | |
| Giants | -3 | 61% | 14 |
Quality 11 | Importance 19 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -7 | 73% | 19 |
| Lions | 27% | 17 |
Quality 28 | Importance 25 | Overall 27 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 27% | 6 | |
| Browns | -7 | 73% | 26 |
Quality 49 | Importance 46 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 32% | 24 | |
| Steelers | -5.5 | 68% | 10 |
Quality 29 | Importance 57 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 38% | 16 | |
| Titans | -3.5 | 62% | 25 |
Quality 45 | Importance 97 | Overall 71 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 25% | 30 | |
| Chiefs | -8 | 75% | 24 |
Quality 86 | Importance 56 | Overall 71 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 44% | 28 | |
| Patriots | -1.5 | 56% | 13 |
Quality 66 | Importance 72 | Overall 69 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 15% | 21 | |
| Bills | -12 | 85% | 43 |
Quality 38 | Importance 19 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 37% | 28 | |
| Raiders | -4 | 63% | 31 |
Quality 54 | Importance 88 | Overall 71 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 17% | 0 | |
| Broncos | -11 | 83% | 26 |
Quality 19 | Importance 17 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | PK | 50% | 17 |
| Vikings | 50% | 30 |
Quality 65 | Importance 74 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 49% | 24 | |
| Rams | PK | 51% | 34 |
Quality 96 | Importance 88 | Overall 92 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 37% | 30 | |
| 49ers | -4 | 63% | 28 |
Quality 80 | Importance 68 | Overall 74 |
Monday, Sept. 27, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 32% | 21 | |
| Cowboys | -5 | 68% | 41 |
Quality 49 | Importance 90 | Overall 70 |
Week 2
Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | -1 | 53% | 29 |
| Washington | 47% | 30 |
Quality 4 | Importance 48 | Overall 26 |
Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 50% | 35 | |
| Dolphins | PK | 50% | 0 |
Quality 74 | Importance 91 | Overall 83 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 43% | 17 | |
| Bears | -2 | 57% | 20 |
Quality 20 | Importance 49 | Overall 35 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -5.5 | 68% | 23 |
| Jaguars | 32% | 13 |
Quality 18 | Importance 45 | Overall 32 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 14% | 21 | |
| Browns | -12.5 | 86% | 31 |
Quality 13 | Importance 16 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | -2 | 56% | 27 |
| Colts | 44% | 24 |
Quality 68 | Importance 64 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -3 | 61% | 25 |
| Jets | 39% | 6 |
Quality 18 | Importance 52 | Overall 35 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -3 | 61% | 7 |
| Panthers | 39% | 26 |
Quality 60 | Importance 77 | Overall 69 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 34% | 26 | |
| Steelers | -4.5 | 66% | 17 |
Quality 53 | Importance 78 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -0.5 | 52% | 17 |
| Eagles | 48% | 11 |
Quality 59 | Importance 79 | Overall 69 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 15% | 25 | |
| Buccaneers | -12 | 85% | 48 |
Quality 60 | Importance 19 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 36% | 33 | |
| Cardinals | -4 | 64% | 34 |
Quality 58 | Importance 73 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 39% | 20 | |
| Chargers | -3 | 61% | 17 |
Quality 66 | Importance 66 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 29% | 33 | |
| Seahawks | -6.5 | 71% | 30 |
Quality 66 | Importance 52 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -1.5 | 55% | 35 |
| Ravens | 45% | 36 |
Quality 93 | Importance 81 | Overall 87 |
Monday, Sept. 20, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 20% | 17 | |
| Packers | -9.5 | 80% | 35 |
Quality 21 | Importance 33 | Overall 27 |
Week 1
Thursday, Sept. 9, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 26% | 29 | |
| Buccaneers | -7 | 74% | 31 |
Quality 85 | Importance 48 | Overall 67 |
Sunday, Sept. 12, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 34% | 38 | |
| Titans | -4.5 | 66% | 13 |
Quality 56 | Importance 59 | Overall 58 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | -2.5 | 59% | 21 |
| Texans | 41% | 37 |
Quality 0 | Importance 17 | Overall 9 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 42% | 20 | |
| Washington | -2 | 58% | 16 |
Quality 58 | Importance 67 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -1 | 53% | 24 |
| Bengals | 47% | 27 |
Quality 33 | Importance 57 | Overall 45 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 35% | 14 | |
| Panthers | -4.5 | 65% | 19 |
Quality 12 | Importance 36 | Overall 24 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 36% | 32 | |
| Falcons | -4 | 64% | 6 |
Quality 21 | Importance 57 | Overall 39 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 28% | 23 | |
| Bills | -6.5 | 72% | 16 |
Quality 78 | Importance 58 | Overall 68 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 48% | 28 | |
| Colts | -0.5 | 52% | 16 |
Quality 63 | Importance 73 | Overall 68 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -4.5 | 66% | 41 |
| Lions | 34% | 33 |
Quality 23 | Importance 45 | Overall 34 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 32% | 29 | |
| Chiefs | -5.5 | 68% | 33 |
Quality 90 | Importance 60 | Overall 75 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | PK | 50% | 27 |
| Giants | 50% | 13 |
Quality 34 | Importance 60 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -2.5 | 59% | 3 |
| Saints | 41% | 38 |
Quality 80 | Importance 74 | Overall 77 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 43% | 17 | |
| Patriots | -2 | 57% | 16 |
Quality 54 | Importance 90 | Overall 72 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 27% | 14 | |
| Rams | -7 | 73% | 34 |
Quality 54 | Importance 54 | Overall 54 |
Monday, Sept. 13, 2021
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3 | 60% | 27 |
| Raiders | 40% | 33 |
Quality 60 | Importance 65 | Overall 63 |
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