No Electoral College majority, House decides election
* This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors.
We use numbers to express uncertainty. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible.
The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races.
Will it be a close race or, um, not? Hover or click through to see the share of votes we’re forecasting for each candidate.
How many House seats we expect each party to win
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.
Our forecast has three versions. We default to the Deluxe 🎩. Click on the 🔍 to see the other two.
2022 Election Coverage
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How the popular vote for the House translates into seats
How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast
Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur.
How the House forecast has changed
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
It’s a busy time for collecting polls. 😰 Check out our polling database for a fun time!
Who’s ahead in competitive districts
Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.