Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in.

UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM

Stefanik is very likely to win New York’s 21st District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

Elise M. Stefanik wins >99 in 100 Matt Castelli wins <1 in 100

New York senate

Schumer is very likely to win

NY-19 house

Riley is slightly favored to win

New York governor

Hochul is clearly favored to win

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote

Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.

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Which polls are influencing the forecast for New York’s 21st District?