Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in.

UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM

Spanberger is favored to win Virginia’s 7th District

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

Yesli I. Vega wins 28 in 100 Abigail A. Spanberger wins 72 in 100

VA-2 house

It's a dead heat

How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote

Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.

Visit us every day — we’re always updating.

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Virginia’s 7th District?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

RRH ElectionsEven+0
RMG ResearchSpanberger+5
RRH ElectionsB/C
Even +0
RMG ResearchB-
Spanberger +5