UPDATED Sep. 24, 2022, at 12:33 PM

 

Republicans win
Democrats win

No Electoral College majority, House decides election

When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.

Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome according to our model.
Numbers need context! Read our election updates for more.

Forecasting each Senate seat

Icon Legend
Solid R
Solid
≥95% R
Likely R
Likely
≥75%
Lean R
Lean
≥60%
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean D
Lean
≥60%
Likely D
Likely
≥75%
Solid D
Solid
≥95% D
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Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races.
Hover over or click through a state to see a detailed view of the race.

How many Senate seats we expect each party to win

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.

Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
Each bar on the histogram represents a possible breakdown of seats in the Senate. Color signifies the party in control.

2022 Election Coverage

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How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win — not just whether it will win.

Who’s ahead in each state

Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.

Race LegendRace Legend
80% of outcomes fall in this range
Special Election Legend
Special election
Incumbent Legend
Incumbent candidate/controlling party
Margin of victory

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