2022 Senate Election Forecast

Looking for the national forecast? Click me!

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios our model considers possible.

Republicans win

Democrats win

No Electoral College majority, House decides election

When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.

Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome according to our model.

Numbers need context! Read our election updates for more.

Forecasting each Senate seat

Solid R

Solid

≥95% R

Likely R

Likely

≥75%

Lean R

Lean

≥60%

Toss-up

<60% both

Lean D

Lean

≥60%

Likely D

Likely

≥75%

Solid D

Solid

≥95% D

Swipe to see more of the map →

Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races.

Hover over or click through a state to see a detailed view of the race.

How many Senate seats we expect each party to win

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.

Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.

Each bar on the histogram represents a possible breakdown of seats in the Senate. Color signifies the party in control.

2022 Election Coverage

Swipe to see more ▸

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win — not just whether it will win.

Who’s ahead in each state

Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.