Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in.
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UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM
No Electoral College majority, House decides election
When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.
* This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors.
Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome according to our model.