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It's a dead heat in Nevada's Senate election
The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.
How the Senate forecast has changed
See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Chances of winning the seat
Popular vote
Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.
Visit us every day — we’re always updating.
Which polls are influencing the forecast for Nevada?
These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.
Pollster | Leader | |
---|---|---|
Emerson College | Laxalt | +5 |
Data for Progress | Laxalt | +2 |
Cygnal | Laxalt | +3 |
Research Co. | Laxalt | +1 |
InsiderAdvantage | Laxalt | +6 |
KAConsulting | Cortez Masto | +1 |
Trafalgar Group | Laxalt | +4 |
Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Even | +0 |
Pollster | Leader | |
Emerson CollegeA- | Laxalt +5 | |
Data for ProgressB | Laxalt +2 | |
CygnalB+ | Laxalt +3 | |
Research Co.B- | Laxalt +1 | |
InsiderAdvantageB | Laxalt +6 | |
KAConsultingB/C | Cortez Masto +1 | |
Trafalgar GroupA- | Laxalt +4 | |
Siena College/The New York Times UpshotA+ | Even +0 |
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