We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios our model considers possible.

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.

Visit us every day — we’re always updating.

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Pennsylvania?


Pick a model!


Click here to change which version of the model you see!