Welch is very likely to win Vermont's Senate election

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

VT-1 house

Balint is very likely to win

Vermont governor

Scott is very likely to win

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote

Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.

Visit us every day — we’re always updating.

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Vermont?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

Pollster	Rating		Malloy	Welch	Leader
Data for Progress	B	Oct. 21-26	32%	63%	Welch	+31
University of New Hampshire	B-	Sept. 29-Oct. 3	28%	62%	Welch	+34
Trafalgar Group	A-	Sept. 3-7	43%	50%	Welch	+7
Pollster	Leader
Data for ProgressB	Welch +31
University of New HampshireB-	Welch +34
Trafalgar GroupA-	Welch +7

See all Vermont Senate polls