Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in.

UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM

Welch is very likely to win Vermont's Senate election

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

Gerald Malloy wins <1 in 100 Peter Welch wins >99 in 100

VT-1 house

Balint is very likely to win

Vermont governor

Scott is very likely to win

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Chances of winning the seat

Popular vote

Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.

Visit us every day — we’re always updating.

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Vermont?

These polls have the biggest impact on the forecast for this race. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size and pollster rating.

Data for ProgressWelch+31
University of New HampshireWelch+34
Trafalgar GroupWelch+7
Data for ProgressB
Welch +31
University of New HampshireB-
Welch +34
Trafalgar GroupA-
Welch +7