Updated Oct. 2, 2022, at 10:36 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Team rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj.
rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake
Play-
offs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL West1619
-1
112-50+34336%
NL East1585
+7
102-60+19098%16%
AL West1576
-2
106-56+21415%
AL East1576
+1
99-63+24414%
NL East1549
-5
100-62+1542%5%
AL East1550
+4
92-70+904%
AL East1535
88-74+632%
AL Central1526
-1
92-70+622%
NL Central1530
+1
94-68+1402%
AL West1521
-3
89-73+671%
NL East1528
-2
87-75+6795%1%
NL West1524
-3
89-73+461%
NL Central1524
-4
86-76+385%<1%
AL East1487
83-79-8
NL West1509
+3
81-81+18
AL Central1505
-1
81-81-27
AL Central1498
+2
78-84+8
AL East1500
-4
76-86-63
AL West1500
+7
75-87-40
NL Central1480
+10
74-88-84
NL West1483
74-88-39
NL East1468
+5
68-94-100
AL West1462
-3
68-94-40
NL West1448
-2
67-95-184
AL Central1459
+5
67-95-156
AL Central1453
-3
65-97-168
NL Central1452
-10
62-100-157
NL Central1430
+4
61-101-231
AL West1436
58-104-207
NL East1436
-5
56-106-240
Forecast from

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.