Updated Sep. 29, 2022, at 12:16 AM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. SimulationPostseason Chances
Team
Division
Team rating
1-Week Change
RecordProj.
rec.
Run Diff.
Make PlayoffsMake
Play-
offs
Win
Division
Win
Div.
Win World SeriesWin
W.S.
NL West1618
-7
112-50+34031%
AL West1577
-2
106-56+21716%
AL East1578
+8
100-62+24315%
NL East1581
100-62+18326%11%
NL East1553
-4
101-61+16074%10%
AL East1544
-3
90-72+71>99%4%
AL East1535
-2
88-74+60>99%3%
AL Central1526
+8
91-71+652%
NL Central1530
+3
94-68+1362%
AL West1522
-5
89-73+74>99%2%
NL West1528
+4
90-72+5198%1%
NL Central1528
+7
87-75+4648%1%
NL East1527
-1
87-75+6454%<1%
AL East1487
+5
83-79-7<1%<1%
NL West1507
+5
80-82+14<1%<1%
AL Central1500
-2
80-82+8
AL Central1502
-15
79-83-31
AL East1505
-4
77-85-45
NL West1483
+3
75-87-37
AL West1494
73-89-50
NL Central1473
+5
73-89-99
AL West1467
69-93-32
NL West1449
-7
67-95-181
NL East1464
67-95-107
AL Central1454
+4
66-96-165
AL Central1456
+7
65-97-162
NL Central1457
-7
63-99-145
NL Central1431
+2
61-101-227
AL West1435
59-103-212
NL East1439
-1
57-105-235
Forecast from

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.