2022 MLB Predictions
Updated after every game.
The Astros have a 100% chance of winning the World Series.
AL West standings
Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AstrosAstros106-56 | — | ✓ | ✓ | |||
MarinersMariners90-72 | 16.0 | ✓ | — | |||
AngelsAngels73-89 | 33.0 | — | — | |||
RangersRangers68-94 | 38.0 | — | — | |||
AthleticsAthletics60-102 | 46.0 | — | — |
Pitcher ratings
Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.
Team rating
Completed games
Date | Team | Starting pitcher | Team rating | Starting pitcher adj. | Travel, rest & home field adj. | Pregame team rating | Win prob.Chance of winning | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11/5Saturday, Nov. 58:03 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Wheeler | 1546 | +32 | –1 | =1577 | 42% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1589 | +5 | +23 | =1617 | 58% | 4 | |
11/3Thursday, Nov. 38:03 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1588 | +23 | +0 | =1611 | 60% | 3 |
PHIPhillies | Syndergaard | 1548 | –16 | +24 | =1556 | 40% | 2 | |
11/2Wednesday, Nov. 28:03 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1585 | +13 | +0 | =1598 | 50% | 5 |
PHIPhillies | Nola | 1551 | +21 | +24 | =1596 | 50% | 0 | |
11/1Tuesday, Nov. 18:03 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1590 | –3 | +2 | =1589 | 54% | 0 |
PHIPhillies | Suarez | 1546 | –7 | +26 | =1565 | 46% | 7 | |
10/29Saturday, Oct. 298:03 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Wheeler | 1549 | +38 | +0 | =1587 | 45% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1587 | +2 | +24 | =1613 | 55% | 5 | |
10/28Friday, Oct. 288:03 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Nola | 1547 | +26 | +4 | =1577 | 37% | 6 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1589 | +26 | +28 | =1643 | 63% | 5 | |
10/23Sunday, Oct. 238:30 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1588 | –1 | +0 | =1587 | 45% | 6 |
NYYYankees | Cortes | 1569 | +17 | +24 | =1610 | 55% | 5 | |
10/22Saturday, Oct. 225:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1584 | +9 | –1 | =1592 | 46% | 5 |
NYYYankees | Cole | 1573 | +16 | +23 | =1612 | 54% | 0 | |
10/20Thursday, Oct. 207:37 p.m. Eastern | NYYYankees | Severino | 1574 | +6 | +0 | =1580 | 45% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1583 | –1 | +24 | =1606 | 55% | 3 | |
10/19Wednesday, Oct. 197:37 p.m. Eastern | NYYYankees | Taillon | 1576 | –8 | –3 | =1565 | 37% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1581 | +26 | +27 | =1634 | 63% | 4 | |
10/15Saturday, Oct. 154:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1580 | –2 | –2 | =1576 | 55% | 1 |
SEAMariners | Kirby | 1525 | +4 | +22 | =1551 | 45% | 0 | |
10/13Thursday, Oct. 133:37 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Castillo | 1527 | +35 | +2 | =1564 | 42% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1578 | +0 | +26 | =1604 | 58% | 4 | |
10/11Tuesday, Oct. 113:37 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Gilbert | 1528 | +14 | +2 | =1544 | 32% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1577 | +35 | +31 | =1643 | 68% | 8 | |
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Falter | 1528 | –18 | +0 | =1510 | 38% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1577 | –6 | +24 | =1595 | 62% | 3 | |
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:10 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Suarez | 1530 | +0 | +0 | =1530 | 36% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1575 | +33 | +24 | =1632 | 64% | 10 | |
10/3Monday, Oct. 38:10 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Nola | 1528 | +25 | –3 | =1550 | 43% | 3 |
HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1576 | –2 | +24 | =1598 | 57% | 0 | |
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern | TBRays | Kluber | 1536 | –9 | +0 | =1527 | 42% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1575 | –17 | +24 | =1582 | 58% | 3 | |
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:20 p.m. Eastern | TBRays | McClanahan | 1537 | +18 | +0 | =1555 | 42% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1575 | +10 | +24 | =1609 | 58% | 2 | |
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern | TBRays | Rasmussen | 1534 | +14 | –3 | =1545 | 41% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1577 | +2 | +26 | =1605 | 59% | 3 | |
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. Eastern | ARIDiamondbacks | Gallen | 1481 | +50 | +0 | =1531 | 35% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1579 | +33 | +24 | =1636 | 65% | 2 | |
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 278:10 p.m. Eastern | ARIDiamondbacks | Davies | 1483 | –19 | –1 | =1463 | 34% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1578 | –20 | +23 | =1581 | 66% | 10 | |
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1576 | +5 | +0 | =1581 | 60% | 6 |
BALOrioles | Voth | 1488 | –3 | +24 | =1509 | 40% | 3 | |
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1576 | +11 | +0 | =1587 | 63% | 11 |
BALOrioles | Baumann | 1489 | –18 | +24 | =1495 | 37% | 10 | |
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1579 | –21 | +0 | =1558 | 57% | 0 |
BALOrioles | Kremer | 1486 | –3 | +24 | =1507 | 43% | 6 | |
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1580 | +34 | –3 | =1611 | 65% | 0 |
BALOrioles | Bradish | 1484 | –1 | +24 | =1507 | 35% | 2 | |
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1579 | –2 | +0 | =1577 | 54% | 5 |
TBRays | Kluber | 1537 | –9 | +24 | =1552 | 46% | 2 | |
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1576 | +3 | +0 | =1579 | 48% | 5 |
TBRays | McClanahan | 1539 | +30 | +24 | =1593 | 52% | 0 | |
9/19Monday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1574 | –21 | –3 | =1550 | 46% | 4 |
TBRays | Rasmussen | 1542 | +12 | +24 | =1578 | 54% | 0 | |
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Waldichuk | 1434 | –5 | +0 | =1429 | 26% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1573 | +11 | +24 | =1608 | 74% | 11 | |
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Irvin | 1432 | +15 | +0 | =1447 | 31% | 8 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1576 | –16 | +24 | =1584 | 69% | 5 | |
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Martinez | 1433 | –13 | +0 | =1420 | 23% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1575 | +32 | +24 | =1631 | 77% | 5 | |
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:20 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Kaprielian | 1433 | +1 | –2 | =1432 | 29% | 2 |
HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1574 | –3 | +21 | =1592 | 71% | 5 | |
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1573 | +0 | +0 | =1573 | 64% | 2 |
DETTigers | Wentz | 1446 | +2 | +24 | =1472 | 36% | 1 | |
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Brown | 1572 | –34 | +0 | =1538 | 62% | 6 |
DETTigers | Hutchison | 1447 | –15 | +24 | =1456 | 38% | 3 | |
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1571 | +8 | –3 | =1576 | 63% | 7 |
DETTigers | Rodriguez | 1449 | +11 | +21 | =1481 | 37% | 0 | |
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Davidson | 1496 | –34 | +0 | =1462 | 34% | 4 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1569 | –17 | +24 | =1576 | 66% | 12 | |
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Ohtani | 1493 | +35 | +0 | =1528 | 42% | 6 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1571 | –8 | +24 | =1587 | 58% | 1 | |
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Lorenzen | 1494 | –14 | –1 | =1479 | 34% | 3 |
HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1571 | –5 | +26 | =1592 | 66% | 4 | |
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Ragans | 1472 | –15 | +0 | =1457 | 31% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1570 | +0 | +24 | =1594 | 69% | 4 | |
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Otto | 1470 | –3 | +0 | =1467 | 31% | 4 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1572 | +7 | +24 | =1603 | 69% | 3 | |
9/5Monday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Perez | 1471 | +22 | –4 | =1489 | 42% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Brown | 1571 | –44 | +21 | =1548 | 58% | 1 | |
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1569 | –12 | +0 | =1557 | 60% | 9 |
LAAAngels | Davidson | 1494 | –30 | +24 | =1488 | 40% | 1 | |
9/3Saturday, Sept. 39:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1570 | –20 | +0 | =1550 | 50% | 1 |
LAAAngels | Ohtani | 1493 | +33 | +24 | =1550 | 50% | 2 | |
9/2Friday, Sept. 29:38 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1569 | –2 | –1 | =1566 | 56% | 4 |
LAAAngels | Detmers | 1494 | +2 | +26 | =1522 | 44% | 2 | |
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 312:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1568 | +2 | +0 | =1570 | 56% | 5 |
TEXRangers | Perez | 1477 | +24 | +24 | =1525 | 44% | 3 | |
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1567 | +7 | +0 | =1574 | 59% | 4 |
TEXRangers | Dunning | 1478 | +9 | +26 | =1513 | 41% | 2 | |
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern | BALOrioles | Voth | 1490 | –1 | +0 | =1489 | 31% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1566 | +36 | +24 | =1626 | 69% | 3 | |
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern | BALOrioles | Kremer | 1488 | –6 | +0 | =1482 | 36% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1568 | –9 | +24 | =1583 | 64% | 1 | |
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern | BALOrioles | Bradish | 1486 | –17 | –3 | =1466 | 33% | 2 |
HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1570 | –3 | +24 | =1591 | 67% | 0 | |
8/25Thursday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins | Archer | 1507 | –2 | +0 | =1505 | 41% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1569 | –21 | +24 | =1572 | 59% | 6 | |
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins | Bundy | 1508 | –6 | +0 | =1502 | 37% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1568 | +3 | +24 | =1595 | 63% | 5 | |
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern | MINTwins | Sanchez | 1509 | –31 | –3 | =1475 | 30% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1567 | +32 | +23 | =1622 | 70% | 4 | |
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1566 | –8 | +0 | =1558 | 43% | 5 |
ATLBraves | Morton | 1572 | +13 | +24 | =1609 | 57% | 4 | |
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:15 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1567 | +2 | +0 | =1569 | 45% | 4 |
ATLBraves | Strider | 1571 | +10 | +24 | =1605 | 55% | 5 | |
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1568 | +2 | –3 | =1567 | 49% | 2 |
ATLBraves | Wright | 1570 | –15 | +24 | =1579 | 51% | 6 | |
8/18Thursday, Aug. 182:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1564 | –16 | +0 | =1548 | 51% | 21 |
CHWWhite Sox | Giolito | 1522 | –6 | +24 | =1540 | 49% | 5 | |
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1563 | +4 | +0 | =1567 | 52% | 3 |
CHWWhite Sox | Kopech | 1523 | +3 | +24 | =1550 | 48% | 2 | |
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1564 | +33 | +0 | =1597 | 53% | 3 |
CHWWhite Sox | Cease | 1522 | +32 | +24 | =1578 | 47% | 4 | |
8/15Monday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1566 | –12 | –3 | =1551 | 51% | 2 |
CHWWhite Sox | Cueto | 1520 | –2 | +24 | =1542 | 49% | 4 | |
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Irvin | 1437 | +21 | +0 | =1458 | 32% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1565 | –1 | +24 | =1588 | 68% | 6 | |
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Logue | 1439 | –16 | +0 | =1423 | 28% | 0 |
HOUAstros | McCullers Jr. | 1563 | +2 | +24 | =1589 | 72% | 8 | |
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Oller | 1439 | –37 | –2 | =1400 | 27% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1563 | –12 | +24 | =1575 | 73% | 7 | |
8/11Thursday, Aug. 112:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Ragans | 1476 | –11 | +0 | =1465 | 33% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1562 | +2 | +24 | =1588 | 67% | 7 | |
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Otto | 1473 | –11 | +0 | =1462 | 28% | 8 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1565 | +37 | +24 | =1626 | 72% | 4 | |
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Perez | 1474 | +22 | +0 | =1496 | 38% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1564 | –6 | +23 | =1581 | 62% | 7 | |
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1565 | –3 | +0 | =1562 | 53% | 0 |
CLEGuardians | McKenzie | 1502 | +18 | +24 | =1544 | 47% | 1 | |
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1567 | –12 | +0 | =1555 | 55% | 1 |
CLEGuardians | Quantrill | 1501 | –5 | +24 | =1520 | 45% | 4 | |
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1565 | +2 | +0 | =1567 | 59% | 9 |
CLEGuardians | Gaddis | 1502 | –23 | +24 | =1503 | 41% | 3 | |
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1563 | +33 | –3 | =1593 | 60% | 6 |
CLEGuardians | Plesac | 1504 | –8 | +24 | =1520 | 40% | 0 | |
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern | BOSRed Sox | Hill | 1521 | –2 | +0 | =1519 | 42% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1561 | –12 | +24 | =1573 | 58% | 6 | |
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern | BOSRed Sox | Crawford | 1520 | –4 | +0 | =1516 | 40% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1563 | –3 | +24 | =1584 | 60% | 1 | |
8/1Monday, Aug. 18 p.m. Eastern | BOSRed Sox | Eovaldi | 1518 | +7 | –4 | =1521 | 42% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1564 | –10 | +24 | =1578 | 58% | 2 | |
7/31Sunday, July 312:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Kirby | 1515 | –6 | +0 | =1509 | 42% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1563 | –22 | +24 | =1565 | 58% | 3 | |
7/30Saturday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Flexen | 1513 | –2 | +0 | =1511 | 39% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1564 | +4 | +24 | =1592 | 61% | 4 | |
7/29Friday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Ray | 1516 | +21 | +0 | =1537 | 38% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1562 | +35 | +24 | =1621 | 62% | 11 | |
7/28Thursday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Gilbert | 1517 | +14 | –4 | =1527 | 44% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1561 | –12 | +20 | =1569 | 56% | 4 | |
7/27Wednesday, July 273:37 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1563 | +3 | +0 | =1566 | 62% | 2 |
OAKAthletics | Irvin | 1440 | +17 | +24 | =1481 | 38% | 4 | |
7/26Tuesday, July 269:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1564 | –6 | +0 | =1558 | 59% | 3 |
OAKAthletics | Montas | 1438 | +31 | +24 | =1493 | 41% | 5 | |
7/25Monday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1566 | –17 | –3 | =1546 | 67% | 5 |
OAKAthletics | Oller | 1436 | –37 | +24 | =1423 | 33% | 7 | |
7/24Sunday, July 244:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1565 | +3 | +0 | =1568 | 50% | 8 |
SEAMariners | Ray | 1516 | +31 | +24 | =1571 | 50% | 5 | |
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1564 | +32 | +0 | =1596 | 56% | 3 |
SEAMariners | Gilbert | 1517 | +12 | +24 | =1553 | 44% | 1 | |
7/22Friday, July 2210:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1562 | –15 | –4 | =1543 | 50% | 5 |
SEAMariners | Gonzales | 1518 | –4 | +27 | =1541 | 50% | 2 | |
7/21Thursday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern | NYYYankees | German | 1590 | –20 | +0 | =1570 | 49% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1560 | –8 | +24 | =1576 | 51% | 7 | |
7/21Thursday, July 211:10 p.m. Eastern | NYYYankees | Montgomery | 1591 | –6 | +4 | =1589 | 49% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1559 | +2 | +31 | =1592 | 51% | 3 | |
7/17Sunday, July 172:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Oller | 1434 | –37 | +0 | =1397 | 27% | 4 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1561 | –16 | +24 | =1569 | 73% | 3 | |
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Koenig | 1434 | –19 | +0 | =1415 | 24% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1560 | +31 | +24 | =1615 | 76% | 5 | |
7/15Friday, July 158:10 p.m. Eastern | OAKAthletics | Irvin | 1432 | +8 | +0 | =1440 | 32% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1563 | –17 | +21 | =1567 | 68% | 1 | |
7/14Thursday, July 148:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1562 | +5 | +0 | =1567 | 57% | 3 |
LAAAngels | Detmers | 1500 | –9 | +24 | =1515 | 43% | 2 | |
7/13Wednesday, July 139:38 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1565 | +4 | +0 | =1569 | 51% | 1 |
LAAAngels | Ohtani | 1497 | +38 | +24 | =1559 | 49% | 7 | |
7/12Tuesday, July 129:38 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1564 | –10 | +0 | =1554 | 55% | 6 |
LAAAngels | Syndergaard | 1498 | +2 | +22 | =1522 | 45% | 5 | |
7/10Sunday, July 104:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1563 | –21 | +0 | =1542 | 61% | 6 |
OAKAthletics | Irvin | 1432 | +5 | +24 | =1461 | 39% | 1 | |
7/9Saturday, July 94:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1564 | +4 | +0 | =1568 | 69% | 2 |
OAKAthletics | Logue | 1430 | –23 | +24 | =1431 | 31% | 3 | |
7/8Friday, July 89:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1563 | –14 | –4 | =1545 | 62% | 8 |
OAKAthletics | Blackburn | 1432 | +3 | +26 | =1461 | 38% | 3 | |
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals | Bubic | 1450 | –11 | +0 | =1439 | 26% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1562 | +34 | +24 | =1620 | 74% | 5 | |
7/6Wednesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals | Keller | 1447 | +6 | +0 | =1453 | 30% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1564 | +11 | +24 | =1599 | 70% | 4 | |
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals | Greinke | 1448 | +10 | +0 | =1458 | 33% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1564 | –7 | +24 | =1581 | 67% | 9 | |
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern | KCRoyals | Heasley | 1449 | –7 | –3 | =1439 | 32% | 6 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1563 | –18 | +24 | =1569 | 68% | 7 | |
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Suarez | 1504 | –26 | +0 | =1478 | 35% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1562 | +1 | +24 | =1587 | 65% | 4 | |
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Sandoval | 1506 | +6 | +0 | =1512 | 43% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1560 | –20 | +24 | =1564 | 57% | 9 | |
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Lorenzen | 1508 | –1 | –1 | =1506 | 39% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1558 | +4 | +24 | =1586 | 61% | 8 | |
6/30Thursday, June 306:10 p.m. Eastern | NYYYankees | Severino | 1589 | +2 | –3 | =1588 | 53% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1557 | –8 | +21 | =1570 | 47% | 2 | |
6/29Wednesday, June 291:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1556 | +29 | +0 | =1585 | 53% | 2 |
NYMMets | Walker | 1543 | –5 | +24 | =1562 | 47% | 0 | |
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1553 | +1 | +1 | =1555 | 50% | 9 |
NYMMets | Carrasco | 1546 | –15 | +23 | =1554 | 50% | 1 | |
6/26Sunday, June 261:35 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1554 | –20 | +0 | =1534 | 39% | 3 |
NYYYankees | Cortes | 1586 | –1 | +24 | =1609 | 61% | 6 | |
6/25Saturday, June 251:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1552 | +0 | +0 | =1552 | 40% | 3 |
NYYYankees | Cole | 1588 | +14 | +24 | =1626 | 60% | 0 | |
6/24Friday, June 247:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1550 | +32 | +0 | =1582 | 45% | 3 |
NYYYankees | Severino | 1589 | +3 | +24 | =1616 | 55% | 1 | |
6/23Thursday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1551 | +3 | –3 | =1551 | 41% | 6 |
NYYYankees | Taillon | 1589 | +1 | +21 | =1611 | 59% | 7 | |
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern | NYMMets | Carrasco | 1546 | –10 | +0 | =1536 | 45% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1550 | –3 | +24 | =1571 | 55% | 5 | |
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern | NYMMets | Williams | 1548 | –29 | –3 | =1516 | 44% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1548 | –20 | +26 | =1554 | 56% | 8 | |
6/19Sunday, June 197 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | Kopech | 1526 | +21 | +0 | =1547 | 46% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1547 | +1 | +24 | =1572 | 54% | 4 | |
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | Cueto | 1522 | –7 | +0 | =1515 | 36% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1550 | +40 | +24 | =1614 | 64% | 0 | |
6/17Friday, June 178:10 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | Giolito | 1525 | +13 | –1 | =1537 | 45% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1548 | +3 | +24 | =1575 | 55% | 13 | |
6/15Wednesday, June 152:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1545 | –6 | +0 | =1539 | 58% | 9 |
TEXRangers | Miller | 1481 | –23 | +24 | =1482 | 42% | 2 | |
6/14Tuesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1544 | –22 | +0 | =1522 | 51% | 4 |
TEXRangers | Dunning | 1482 | +8 | +24 | =1514 | 49% | 3 | |
6/13Monday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1546 | –1 | –2 | =1543 | 58% | 3 |
TEXRangers | Hearn | 1480 | –14 | +21 | =1487 | 42% | 5 | |
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern | MIAMarlins | Cabrera | 1499 | –20 | +0 | =1479 | 32% | 4 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1545 | +42 | +24 | =1611 | 68% | 9 | |
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern | MIAMarlins | Garrett | 1496 | –40 | +0 | =1456 | 33% | 5 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1548 | +4 | +24 | =1576 | 67% | 1 | |
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern | MIAMarlins | Lopez | 1494 | +17 | –3 | =1508 | 41% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1550 | –1 | +26 | =1575 | 59% | 4 | |
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Gilbert | 1496 | +22 | +0 | =1518 | 44% | 6 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1552 | –18 | +24 | =1558 | 56% | 3 | |
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Flexen | 1497 | –5 | +0 | =1492 | 33% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1551 | +38 | +24 | =1613 | 67% | 4 | |
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Ray | 1495 | +20 | –2 | =1513 | 41% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1553 | +1 | +21 | =1575 | 59% | 4 | |
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1552 | +2 | +0 | =1554 | 62% | 7 |
KCRoyals | Heasley | 1451 | –5 | +24 | =1470 | 38% | 4 | |
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1555 | –4 | +0 | =1551 | 63% | 0 |
KCRoyals | Bubic | 1447 | –10 | +24 | =1461 | 37% | 6 | |
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1553 | –18 | –2 | =1533 | 56% | 10 |
KCRoyals | Singer | 1450 | +20 | +23 | =1493 | 44% | 3 | |
6/1Wednesday, June 13:37 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1552 | +38 | +0 | =1590 | 67% | 5 |
OAKAthletics | Irvin | 1447 | –5 | +24 | =1466 | 33% | 4 | |
5/31Tuesday, May 319:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1551 | +3 | +0 | =1554 | 56% | 3 |
OAKAthletics | Montas | 1448 | +39 | +24 | =1511 | 44% | 1 | |
5/30Monday, May 304:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1549 | –3 | –3 | =1543 | 60% | 5 |
OAKAthletics | Blackburn | 1449 | +1 | +24 | =1474 | 40% | 1 | |
5/29Sunday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1548 | –5 | +0 | =1543 | 54% | 2 |
SEAMariners | Gonzales | 1494 | –1 | +24 | =1517 | 46% | 1 | |
5/28Saturday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1551 | –11 | +0 | =1540 | 51% | 0 |
SEAMariners | Gilbert | 1492 | +17 | +24 | =1533 | 49% | 6 | |
5/27Friday, May 279:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1554 | +46 | –2 | =1598 | 62% | 1 |
SEAMariners | Flexen | 1489 | –5 | +26 | =1510 | 38% | 6 | |
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEGuardians | Quantrill | 1497 | +7 | +0 | =1504 | 40% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1553 | –2 | +24 | =1575 | 60% | 2 | |
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEGuardians | Plesac | 1499 | –12 | +0 | =1487 | 38% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1552 | –4 | +24 | =1572 | 62% | 7 | |
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern | CLEGuardians | McKenzie | 1496 | +7 | –3 | =1500 | 40% | 6 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1555 | –5 | +24 | =1574 | 60% | 1 | |
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Hearn | 1474 | –11 | +0 | =1463 | 36% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1553 | –14 | +24 | =1563 | 64% | 5 | |
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Gray | 1474 | +8 | +0 | =1482 | 31% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1553 | +46 | +24 | =1623 | 69% | 2 | |
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Perez | 1472 | +8 | +0 | =1480 | 37% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1555 | –4 | +24 | =1575 | 63% | 0 | |
5/19Thursday, May 198:10 p.m. Eastern | TEXRangers | Otto | 1473 | –19 | –2 | =1452 | 34% | 1 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1554 | –6 | +20 | =1568 | 66% | 5 | |
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1556 | +0 | +0 | =1556 | 53% | 1 |
BOSRed Sox | Pivetta | 1519 | –7 | +24 | =1536 | 47% | 5 | |
5/17Tuesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1553 | –9 | +0 | =1544 | 48% | 13 |
BOSRed Sox | Eovaldi | 1522 | +11 | +24 | =1557 | 52% | 4 | |
5/16Monday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1554 | –15 | –2 | =1537 | 53% | 3 |
BOSRed Sox | Whitlock | 1521 | –22 | +20 | =1519 | 47% | 6 | |
5/15Sunday, May 151:35 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1553 | +46 | +0 | =1599 | 66% | 8 |
WSHNationals | Corbin | 1465 | –8 | +24 | =1481 | 34% | 0 | |
5/14Saturday, May 147:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1556 | +1 | +0 | =1557 | 61% | 6 |
WSHNationals | Fedde | 1462 | –6 | +24 | =1480 | 39% | 13 | |
5/13Friday, May 137:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1554 | –11 | –3 | =1540 | 57% | 6 |
WSHNationals | Gray | 1463 | +3 | +24 | =1490 | 43% | 1 | |
5/12Thursday, May 124 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1552 | –3 | +0 | =1549 | 50% | 5 |
MINTwins | Winder | 1518 | +3 | +24 | =1545 | 50% | 0 | |
5/11Wednesday, May 117:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1549 | –9 | +0 | =1540 | 50% | 11 |
MINTwins | Archer | 1521 | –5 | +24 | =1540 | 50% | 3 | |
5/10Tuesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1547 | +42 | –1 | =1588 | 53% | 5 |
MINTwins | Ryan | 1523 | +21 | +26 | =1570 | 47% | 0 | |
5/8Sunday, May 82:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | Peralta | 1463 | –9 | +0 | =1454 | 36% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1546 | –16 | +24 | =1554 | 64% | 5 | |
5/7Saturday, May 74:05 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | Rodriguez | 1463 | +9 | +0 | =1472 | 38% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1545 | –9 | +24 | =1560 | 62% | 3 | |
5/6Friday, May 68:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | Brieske | 1464 | –14 | +0 | =1450 | 34% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1545 | –5 | +24 | =1564 | 66% | 3 | |
5/5Thursday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern | DETTigers | Skubal | 1465 | +1 | –3 | =1463 | 36% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1544 | –8 | +24 | =1560 | 64% | 3 | |
5/4Wednesday, May 42:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Brash | 1505 | –25 | +0 | =1480 | 32% | 2 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1543 | +45 | +24 | =1612 | 68% | 7 | |
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Flexen | 1507 | +3 | +0 | =1510 | 42% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Javier | 1541 | +4 | +24 | =1569 | 58% | 4 | |
5/2Monday, May 28:10 p.m. Eastern | SEAMariners | Gonzales | 1508 | +3 | –3 | =1508 | 45% | 0 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1540 | –18 | +21 | =1543 | 55% | 3 | |
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1540 | –8 | +0 | =1532 | 41% | 2 |
TORBlue Jays | Gausman | 1553 | +19 | +24 | =1596 | 59% | 3 | |
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1541 | –3 | +0 | =1538 | 43% | 1 |
TORBlue Jays | Berrios | 1552 | +13 | +24 | =1589 | 57% | 2 | |
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1539 | –5 | –3 | =1531 | 47% | 11 |
TORBlue Jays | Kikuchi | 1555 | –29 | +24 | =1550 | 53% | 7 | |
4/28Thursday, April 282:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1539 | +44 | +0 | =1583 | 64% | 3 |
TEXRangers | Perez | 1465 | –4 | +24 | =1485 | 36% | 2 | |
4/27Wednesday, April 278:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Javier | 1538 | +6 | +0 | =1544 | 58% | 4 |
TEXRangers | Otto | 1466 | –5 | +24 | =1485 | 42% | 3 | |
4/26Tuesday, April 268:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1536 | –21 | +0 | =1515 | 55% | 5 |
TEXRangers | Hearn | 1468 | –11 | +24 | =1481 | 45% | 1 | |
4/25Monday, April 258:05 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1538 | –9 | –2 | =1527 | 55% | 2 |
TEXRangers | Dunning | 1466 | +10 | +20 | =1496 | 45% | 6 | |
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern | TORBlue Jays | Kikuchi | 1555 | –24 | +0 | =1531 | 46% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1537 | +0 | +24 | =1561 | 54% | 8 | |
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern | TORBlue Jays | Manoah | 1554 | +21 | +0 | =1575 | 52% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1538 | –3 | +24 | =1559 | 48% | 2 | |
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern | TORBlue Jays | Stripling | 1553 | –15 | –4 | =1534 | 39% | 4 |
HOUAstros | Verlander | 1540 | +47 | +26 | =1613 | 61% | 3 | |
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Ohtani | 1520 | +22 | +0 | =1542 | 49% | 6 |
HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1542 | –15 | +24 | =1551 | 51% | 0 | |
4/19Tuesday, April 198:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Sandoval | 1517 | +3 | +0 | =1520 | 44% | 7 |
HOUAstros | Valdez | 1545 | –6 | +24 | =1563 | 56% | 2 | |
4/18Monday, April 188:10 p.m. Eastern | LAAAngels | Lorenzen | 1519 | +5 | –2 | =1522 | 45% | 3 |
HOUAstros | Garcia | 1543 | –3 | +20 | =1560 | 55% | 8 | |
4/17Sunday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1545 | +0 | +0 | =1545 | 54% | 2 |
SEAMariners | Brash | 1502 | –9 | +24 | =1517 | 46% | 7 | |
4/16Saturday, April 169:10 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1544 | +39 | +0 | =1583 | 58% | 4 |
SEAMariners | Flexen | 1503 | –2 | +24 | =1525 | 42% | 0 | |
4/15Friday, April 159:42 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1547 | –13 | –1 | =1533 | 51% | 1 |
SEAMariners | Gonzales | 1500 | +5 | +20 | =1525 | 49% | 11 | |
4/13Wednesday, April 133:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1548 | –5 | +0 | =1543 | 57% | 2 |
ARIDiamondbacks | Kelly | 1456 | +12 | +24 | =1492 | 43% | 3 | |
4/12Tuesday, April 129:40 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Garcia | 1548 | –5 | +0 | =1543 | 58% | 2 |
ARIDiamondbacks | Bumgarner | 1457 | +3 | +26 | =1486 | 42% | 1 | |
4/10Sunday, April 104:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Urquidy | 1546 | –1 | +0 | =1545 | 54% | 4 |
LAAAngels | Suarez | 1515 | –22 | +24 | =1517 | 46% | 1 | |
4/9Saturday, April 99:07 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Verlander | 1548 | +40 | +0 | =1588 | 56% | 0 |
LAAAngels | Syndergaard | 1514 | +7 | +24 | =1545 | 44% | 2 | |
4/8Friday, April 89:38 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Odorizzi | 1545 | –12 | +0 | =1533 | 52% | 13 |
LAAAngels | Detmers | 1516 | –23 | +24 | =1517 | 48% | 6 | |
4/7Thursday, April 79:38 p.m. Eastern | HOUAstros | Valdez | 1544 | –10 | –3 | =1531 | 45% | 3 |
LAAAngels | Ohtani | 1518 | +26 | +24 | =1568 | 55% | 1 |
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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