Updated May 22, 2022, at 3:09 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Astros have a 10% chance of winning the World Series.

AL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Astros Astros26-15	—	92%	72%
Angels Angels25-17	1.5	69%	25%
Mariners Mariners17-24	9.0	13%	2%
Rangers Rangers18-21	7.0	8%	1%
Athletics Athletics17-25	9.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Hearn	1474	–11	+0	=1463	36%
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1553	–14	+24	=1563	64%
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1498	–11	–3	=1484	37%
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1553	–5	+24	=1572	63%
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1498	+7	+0	=1505	40%
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1553	–5	+24	=1572	60%
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1498	–18	+0	=1480	37%
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1553	–2	+24	=1575	63%
5/27Friday, May 279:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1553	+47	–2	=1598	62%
5/27Friday, May 279:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1493	–6	+26	=1513	38%
5/28Saturday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1553	–14	+0	=1539	51%
5/28Saturday, May 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1493	+17	+24	=1534	49%
5/29Sunday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1553	–5	+0	=1548	54%
5/29Sunday, May 294:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1493	+3	+24	=1520	46%
5/30Monday, May 304:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1553	–5	–3	=1545	61%
5/30Monday, May 304:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1452	–5	+24	=1471	39%
5/31Tuesday, May 319:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1553	–2	+0	=1551	56%
5/31Tuesday, May 319:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1452	+33	+24	=1509	44%
6/1Wednesday, June 13:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1553	+47	+0	=1600	68%
6/1Wednesday, June 13:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1452	–8	+24	=1468	32%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–2	=1552	60%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+23	=1481	40%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	60%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	40%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	60%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	40%
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	–2	=1493	38%
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+21	=1575	62%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+0	=1495	38%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+0	=1495	38%
6/8Wednesday, June 86:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	37%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+26	=1580	63%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	38%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	38%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
6/13Monday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–2	=1552	58%
6/13Monday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+21	=1495	42%
6/14Tuesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	58%
6/14Tuesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	42%
6/15Wednesday, June 152:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	58%
6/15Wednesday, June 152:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	42%
6/17Friday, June 178:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	–1	=1526	43%
6/17Friday, June 178:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+0	=1527	43%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
6/19Sunday, June 192:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+0	=1527	43%
6/19Sunday, June 192:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–3	=1529	43%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+26	=1580	57%
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	43%
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
6/23Thursday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	44%
6/23Thursday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+21	=1596	56%
6/24Friday, June 247:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	44%
6/24Friday, June 247:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	56%
6/25Saturday, June 251:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	44%
6/25Saturday, June 251:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	56%
6/26Sunday, June 261:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	44%
6/26Sunday, June 261:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	56%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+1	=1555	50%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+23	=1555	50%
6/29Wednesday, June 291:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
6/29Wednesday, June 291:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	50%
6/30Thursday, June 306:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	–3	=1572	49%
6/30Thursday, June 306:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+21	=1575	51%
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	–1	=1530	43%
7/1Friday, July 18:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	43%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	43%
7/3Sunday, July 32:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	–3	=1455	33%
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	33%
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
7/6Wednesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	33%
7/6Wednesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	33%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
7/8Friday, July 89:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–4	=1550	60%
7/8Friday, July 89:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+26	=1479	40%
7/9Saturday, July 94:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	61%
7/9Saturday, July 94:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	39%
7/10Sunday, July 104:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	61%
7/10Sunday, July 104:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	39%
7/12Tuesday, July 129:38 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
7/12Tuesday, July 129:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+22	=1553	50%
7/13Wednesday, July 139:38 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
7/13Wednesday, July 139:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	50%
7/14Thursday, July 148:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
7/14Thursday, July 148:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	50%
7/15Friday, July 158:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
7/15Friday, July 158:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+21	=1575	67%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
7/17Sunday, July 172:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
7/17Sunday, July 172:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
7/21Thursday, July 211:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+4	=1579	49%
7/21Thursday, July 211:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+31	=1585	51%
7/21Thursday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	49%
7/21Thursday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	51%
7/22Friday, July 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–4	=1550	54%
7/22Friday, July 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+27	=1522	46%
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	55%
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	45%
7/24Sunday, July 244:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	55%
7/24Sunday, July 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	45%
7/25Monday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	61%
7/25Monday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	39%
7/26Tuesday, July 269:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	61%
7/26Tuesday, July 269:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	39%
7/27Wednesday, July 273:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	61%
7/27Wednesday, July 273:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	39%
7/28Thursday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	–4	=1491	38%
7/28Thursday, July 288:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+20	=1574	62%
7/29Friday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+0	=1495	38%
7/29Friday, July 298:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
7/30Saturday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+0	=1495	38%
7/30Saturday, July 307:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
7/31Sunday, July 312:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+0	=1495	38%
7/31Sunday, July 312:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	62%
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	–4	=1520	42%
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	42%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	42%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	54%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	46%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	55%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	45%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	55%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	45%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	55%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+24	=1522	45%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	36%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+23	=1577	64%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	35%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	65%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	35%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	65%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	–2	=1451	33%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
8/15Monday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	50%
8/15Monday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	50%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	50%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	50%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	50%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	48%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	52%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:15 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	48%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	52%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	48%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	52%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	–3	=1521	42%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+23	=1577	58%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	42%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	42%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	30%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	70%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	30%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	70%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	30%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	70%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	58%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+26	=1500	42%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 312:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	58%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 312:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	42%
9/2Friday, Sept. 29:38 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–1	=1553	49%
9/2Friday, Sept. 29:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+26	=1557	51%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 39:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 39:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	50%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	50%
9/5Monday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	–4	=1470	35%
9/5Monday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+21	=1575	65%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	35%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	65%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+0	=1474	35%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	65%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	–1	=1530	43%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+26	=1580	57%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	43%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	43%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	60%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+21	=1478	40%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	60%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+24	=1481	40%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	60%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+24	=1481	40%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	–2	=1451	33%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+21	=1575	67%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	33%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	67%
9/19Monday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	49%
9/19Monday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	51%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	50%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	50%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	50%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	63%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	64%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	36%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	64%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	36%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	64%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	36%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 278:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	–1	=1465	34%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 278:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+23	=1577	66%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	34%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	66%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	–3	=1529	43%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+26	=1580	57%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	43%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	43%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	57%
10/3Monday, Oct. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–3	=1517	41%
10/3Monday, Oct. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	59%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	42%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	42%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+24	=1578	58%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1474	+8	+0	=1482	31%	1
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1553	+46	+24	=1623	69%	2
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1472	+8	+0	=1480	37%	3
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1555	–4	+24	=1575	63%	0
5/19Thursday, May 198:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Otto	1473	–19	–2	=1452	34%	1
5/19Thursday, May 198:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1554	–6	+20	=1568	66%	5
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1556	+0	+0	=1556	53%	1
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1519	–7	+24	=1536	47%	5
5/17Tuesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1553	–9	+0	=1544	48%	13
5/17Tuesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1522	+11	+24	=1557	52%	4
5/16Monday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1554	–15	–2	=1537	53%	3
5/16Monday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1521	–22	+20	=1519	47%	6
5/15Sunday, May 151:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1553	+46	+0	=1599	66%	8
5/15Sunday, May 151:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1465	–8	+24	=1481	34%	0
5/14Saturday, May 147:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1556	+1	+0	=1557	61%	6
5/14Saturday, May 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1462	–6	+24	=1480	39%	13
5/13Friday, May 137:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1554	–11	–3	=1540	57%	6
5/13Friday, May 137:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1463	+3	+24	=1490	43%	1
5/12Thursday, May 124 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1552	–3	+0	=1549	50%	5
5/12Thursday, May 124 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Winder	1518	+3	+24	=1545	50%	0
5/11Wednesday, May 117:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1549	–9	+0	=1540	50%	11
5/11Wednesday, May 117:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1521	–5	+24	=1540	50%	3
5/10Tuesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1547	+42	–1	=1588	53%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1523	+21	+26	=1570	47%	0
5/8Sunday, May 82:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Peralta	1463	–9	+0	=1454	36%	0
5/8Sunday, May 82:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1546	–16	+24	=1554	64%	5
5/7Saturday, May 74:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1463	+9	+0	=1472	38%	2
5/7Saturday, May 74:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1545	–9	+24	=1560	62%	3
5/6Friday, May 68:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Brieske	1464	–14	+0	=1450	34%	2
5/6Friday, May 68:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1545	–5	+24	=1564	66%	3
5/5Thursday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1465	+1	–3	=1463	36%	2
5/5Thursday, May 58:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1544	–8	+24	=1560	64%	3
5/4Wednesday, May 42:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Brash	1505	–25	+0	=1480	32%	2
5/4Wednesday, May 42:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1543	+45	+24	=1612	68%	7
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1507	+3	+0	=1510	42%	0
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1541	+4	+24	=1569	58%	4
5/2Monday, May 28:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1508	+3	–3	=1508	45%	0
5/2Monday, May 28:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1540	–18	+21	=1543	55%	3
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1540	–8	+0	=1532	41%	2
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1553	+19	+24	=1596	59%	3
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1541	–3	+0	=1538	43%	1
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1552	+13	+24	=1589	57%	2
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1539	–5	–3	=1531	47%	11
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–29	+24	=1550	53%	7
4/28Thursday, April 282:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1539	+44	+0	=1583	64%	3
4/28Thursday, April 282:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1465	–4	+24	=1485	36%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 278:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1538	+6	+0	=1544	58%	4
4/27Wednesday, April 278:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Otto	1466	–5	+24	=1485	42%	3
4/26Tuesday, April 268:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1536	–21	+0	=1515	55%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 268:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Hearn	1468	–11	+24	=1481	45%	1
4/25Monday, April 258:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1538	–9	–2	=1527	55%	2
4/25Monday, April 258:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1466	+10	+20	=1496	45%	6
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–24	+0	=1531	46%	7
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1537	+0	+24	=1561	54%	8
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1554	+21	+0	=1575	52%	3
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1538	–3	+24	=1559	48%	2
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1553	–15	–4	=1534	39%	4
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1540	+47	+26	=1613	61%	3
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1520	+22	+0	=1542	49%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1542	–15	+24	=1551	51%	0
4/19Tuesday, April 198:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1517	+3	+0	=1520	44%	7
4/19Tuesday, April 198:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1545	–6	+24	=1563	56%	2
4/18Monday, April 188:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Lorenzen	1519	+5	–2	=1522	45%	3
4/18Monday, April 188:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1543	–3	+20	=1560	55%	8
4/17Sunday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1545	+0	+0	=1545	54%	2
4/17Sunday, April 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Brash	1502	–9	+24	=1517	46%	7
4/16Saturday, April 169:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1544	+39	+0	=1583	58%	4
4/16Saturday, April 169:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1503	–2	+24	=1525	42%	0
4/15Friday, April 159:42 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1547	–13	–1	=1533	51%	1
4/15Friday, April 159:42 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1500	+5	+20	=1525	49%	11
4/13Wednesday, April 133:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1548	–5	+0	=1543	57%	2
4/13Wednesday, April 133:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1456	+12	+24	=1492	43%	3
4/12Tuesday, April 129:40 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1548	–5	+0	=1543	58%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 129:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1457	+3	+26	=1486	42%	1
4/10Sunday, April 104:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1546	–1	+0	=1545	54%	4
4/10Sunday, April 104:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1515	–22	+24	=1517	46%	1
4/9Saturday, April 99:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1548	+40	+0	=1588	56%	0
4/9Saturday, April 99:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Syndergaard	1514	+7	+24	=1545	44%	2
4/8Friday, April 89:38 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Odorizzi	1545	–12	+0	=1533	52%	13
4/8Friday, April 89:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1516	–23	+24	=1517	48%	6
4/7Thursday, April 79:38 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1544	–10	–3	=1531	45%	3
4/7Thursday, April 79:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1518	+26	+24	=1568	55%	1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.