Updated Sep. 28, 2022, at 1:56 AM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Blue Jays have a 4% chance of winning the World Series.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Yankees Yankees95-59	—	✓	✓
Blue Jays Blue Jays87-68	8.5	>99%	—
Rays Rays85-69	10.0	>99%	—
Orioles Orioles80-74	15.0	<1%	—
Red Sox Red Sox73-81	22.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1576	+14	+0	=1590	57%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1546	–28	+24	=1542	43%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1503	+1	–2	=1502	35%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+36	+26	=1608	65%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 13:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1503	–4	+0	=1499	39%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1546	+8	+24	=1578	61%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1503	+15	+0	=1518	40%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+18	+24	=1588	60%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	–18	–2	=1526	52%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1488	+5	+22	=1515	48%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1546	–28	+0	=1518	53%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baumann	1488	–15	+24	=1497	47%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+36	+0	=1582	60%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1488	+3	+24	=1515	40%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1574	–6	+0	=1568	52%	5
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1547	–17	+24	=1554	48%	2
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1575	+3	–2	=1576	49%	2
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+17	+21	=1584	51%	3
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1544	+8	+0	=1552	45%	7
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1538	+24	+24	=1586	55%	1
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1542	+34	+0	=1576	50%	3
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1539	+12	+24	=1575	50%	1
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1544	–26	+0	=1518	43%	6
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1537	+7	+24	=1568	57%	10
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	–9	–3	=1534	45%	5
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chargois (open)	1535	+8	+24	=1567	55%	10
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1547	+14	+0	=1561	47%	3
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1528	+26	+24	=1578	53%	4
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1544	+12	+0	=1556	53%	18
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1530	–20	+23	=1533	47%	11
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1486	+0	+0	=1486	34%	5
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+32	+24	=1602	66%	4
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1488	+1	+0	=1489	40%	3
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1544	–9	+24	=1559	60%	6
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1489	–8	+0	=1481	37%	3
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Richards (open)	1543	+8	+24	=1575	63%	6
9/15Thursday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1536	+27	+0	=1563	47%	11
9/15Thursday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1547	+15	+24	=1586	53%	0
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1538	+16	+0	=1554	46%	1
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1545	+10	+24	=1579	54%	5
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1540	–7	+0	=1533	40%	2
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1544	+34	+24	=1602	60%	7
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 131:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1538	+5	+0	=1543	50%	4
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 131:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Merryweather	1545	–23	+24	=1546	50%	2
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Criswell	1539	–29	–2	=1508	43%	2
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1544	–11	+21	=1554	57%	3
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Richards (open)	1546	+6	+0	=1552	55%	1
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1469	+27	+24	=1520	45%	4
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1545	+19	+0	=1564	63%	11
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Arihara	1470	–23	+24	=1471	37%	7
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1544	+8	–1	=1551	57%	4
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1471	+4	+24	=1499	43%	3
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1543	+31	+0	=1574	57%	4
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1491	+9	+24	=1524	43%	1
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1544	–23	+0	=1521	52%	6
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1490	–4	+24	=1510	48%	9
9/5Monday, Sept. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1543	–9	+0	=1534	55%	8
9/5Monday, Sept. 55:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Baumann	1491	–18	+24	=1497	45%	4
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1541	+19	–2	=1558	56%	7
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1493	–3	+24	=1514	44%	3
9/4Sunday, Sept. 412:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1540	+8	+0	=1548	63%	4
9/4Sunday, Sept. 412:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1422	+8	+24	=1454	37%	3
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Richards	1539	–25	+0	=1514	58%	4
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1423	+10	+24	=1457	42%	1
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1538	+28	+0	=1566	68%	4
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1424	–13	+24	=1435	32%	0
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Farrell	1468	–31	+0	=1437	35%	7
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1540	–19	+24	=1545	65%	5
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1469	+13	+0	=1482	36%	3
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1539	+19	+24	=1582	64%	5
8/29Monday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Assad	1470	–10	–2	=1458	36%	4
8/29Monday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1538	–7	+24	=1555	64%	5
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:37 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Davidson	1490	–32	+0	=1458	34%	8
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1541	+9	+24	=1574	66%	3
8/27Saturday, Aug. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1488	+27	+0	=1515	39%	2
8/27Saturday, Aug. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1543	+25	+24	=1592	61%	0
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1483	+0	–3	=1480	39%	12
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1548	–14	+22	=1556	61%	0
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1547	+19	+0	=1566	57%	6
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1508	–17	+24	=1515	43%	5
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	–10	+0	=1536	55%	3
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1509	–31	+24	=1502	45%	2
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1544	+7	+0	=1551	57%	9
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Winckowski	1511	–30	+24	=1505	43%	3
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:53 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1545	+22	+0	=1567	45%	2
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:53 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1566	+9	+24	=1599	55%	4
8/20Saturday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1543	–14	+0	=1529	38%	5
8/20Saturday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1568	+21	+24	=1613	62%	2
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1541	+17	+0	=1558	46%	4
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1571	–7	+24	=1588	54%	0
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1538	–11	–2	=1525	41%	9
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montas	1574	–7	+24	=1591	59%	2
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Voth	1485	–1	+0	=1484	39%	1
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1536	+5	+24	=1565	61%	6
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1483	–7	+0	=1476	34%	4
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1538	+29	+24	=1591	66%	2
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1481	–15	–3	=1463	39%	7
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1541	–28	+24	=1537	61%	3
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1509	+30	+0	=1539	43%	7
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1543	+22	+24	=1589	57%	2
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1510	+21	+0	=1531	47%	1
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1542	–15	+24	=1551	53%	2
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1506	–4	–2	=1500	41%	8
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	–5	+27	=1568	59%	0
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1547	+28	+0	=1575	63%	5
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1480	–17	+24	=1487	37%	6
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1549	–27	–3	=1519	52%	4
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1478	+4	+24	=1506	48%	7
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1548	+17	+0	=1565	54%	3
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1515	–3	+24	=1536	46%	2
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1550	–18	+0	=1532	51%	3
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bundy	1513	–9	+24	=1528	49%	7
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	–1	+0	=1550	49%	5
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Mahle	1512	+20	+24	=1556	51%	6
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+26	–3	=1572	52%	9
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1514	+20	+24	=1558	48%	3
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1550	–29	+0	=1521	46%	2
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Beeks (open)	1522	+2	+24	=1548	54%	3
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1548	+10	–1	=1557	51%	3
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1524	+3	+26	=1553	49%	1
7/31Sunday, July 3112:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hill	1456	–17	+0	=1439	32%	1
7/31Sunday, July 3112:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1547	–1	+24	=1570	68%	4
7/30Saturday, July 303:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hutchison	1457	–25	+0	=1432	31%	3
7/30Saturday, July 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1547	+2	+24	=1573	69%	5
7/29Friday, July 297:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Garcia	1455	–9	+0	=1446	29%	4
7/29Friday, July 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+32	+24	=1605	71%	2
7/28Thursday, July 287:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1456	–5	–2	=1449	37%	3
7/28Thursday, July 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1548	–30	+24	=1542	63%	5
7/27Wednesday, July 277:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1510	+21	+0	=1531	42%	6
7/27Wednesday, July 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1550	+13	+24	=1587	58%	1
7/26Tuesday, July 267:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Pallante	1512	–17	+0	=1495	39%	3
7/26Tuesday, July 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1549	–2	+24	=1571	61%	10
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1547	+1	+0	=1548	54%	8
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1523	–30	+24	=1517	46%	4
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1545	+31	+0	=1576	56%	4
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1525	–16	+24	=1533	44%	1
7/22Friday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1539	+14	+5	=1558	48%	28
7/22Friday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1531	+15	+29	=1575	52%	5
7/17Sunday, July 1712:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1452	–12	+0	=1440	33%	2
7/17Sunday, July 1712:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1539	–3	+24	=1560	67%	4
7/16Saturday, July 163:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1452	–3	+0	=1449	38%	5
7/16Saturday, July 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Castillo	1538	–25	+24	=1537	62%	6
7/15Friday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1454	+8	+0	=1462	33%	1
7/15Friday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1536	+28	+24	=1588	67%	8
7/14Thursday, July 147:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Zerpa	1452	+3	–3	=1452	33%	3
7/14Thursday, July 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1538	+16	+24	=1578	67%	1
7/13Wednesday, July 137:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1533	+33	+0	=1566	51%	2
7/13Wednesday, July 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1536	–2	+24	=1558	49%	8
7/12Tuesday, July 127:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Bellatti	1534	–37	–3	=1494	42%	3
7/12Tuesday, July 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1535	–4	+22	=1553	58%	4
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Castillo	1536	–23	+0	=1513	45%	5
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1510	+10	+24	=1544	55%	6
7/9Saturday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1537	+29	+0	=1566	51%	1
7/9Saturday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1509	+29	+24	=1562	49%	2
7/8Friday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1539	–1	+0	=1538	52%	2
7/8Friday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1507	–10	+24	=1521	48%	5
7/7Thursday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Banda	1541	–25	–3	=1513	48%	3
7/7Thursday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1505	–1	+23	=1527	52%	8
7/6Wednesday, July 63:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1540	–5	+0	=1535	62%	2
7/6Wednesday, July 63:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1433	–6	+24	=1451	38%	1
7/5Tuesday, July 59:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1542	–24	+0	=1518	61%	3
7/5Tuesday, July 59:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Martinez	1431	–14	+24	=1441	39%	5
7/4Monday, July 49:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1545	+33	–4	=1574	67%	1
7/4Monday, July 49:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1428	–1	+21	=1448	33%	5
7/3Sunday, July 31:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Baz	1527	–8	+0	=1519	43%	7
7/3Sunday, July 31:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1547	+0	+24	=1571	57%	3
7/2Saturday, July 26:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1524	+0	+0	=1524	46%	11
7/2Saturday, July 26:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Hatch	1550	–24	+24	=1550	54%	5
7/2Saturday, July 212:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1522	+33	+0	=1555	45%	6
7/2Saturday, July 212:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1552	+15	+24	=1591	55%	2
7/1Friday, July 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1524	+5	+0	=1529	45%	2
7/1Friday, July 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1550	–9	+24	=1565	55%	9
6/30Thursday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Wisler (open)	1526	+3	–3	=1526	48%	1
6/30Thursday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1548	–32	+24	=1540	52%	4
6/29Wednesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1543	+12	+0	=1555	43%	6
6/29Wednesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+30	+24	=1603	57%	5
6/28Tuesday, June 287:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1544	–3	+0	=1541	46%	5
6/28Tuesday, June 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1548	–2	+24	=1570	54%	6
6/27Monday, June 277:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Seabold	1546	–35	–2	=1509	40%	2
6/27Monday, June 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1547	+11	+22	=1580	60%	7
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1550	+1	+0	=1551	55%	3
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Gonzalez	1532	–40	+24	=1516	45%	10
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1551	–29	+0	=1522	39%	4
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1532	+42	+24	=1598	61%	5
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+29	+1	=1579	56%	9
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1534	–18	+24	=1540	44%	4
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1547	–7	+0	=1540	48%	9
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1527	+5	+24	=1556	52%	5
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1548	+8	+0	=1556	49%	6
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1526	+14	+24	=1564	51%	7
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1549	+8	–2	=1555	48%	7
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1525	+22	+21	=1568	52%	8
6/19Sunday, June 191:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1589	+3	+0	=1592	57%	9
6/19Sunday, June 191:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1547	–29	+24	=1542	43%	10
6/18Saturday, June 183:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1587	–4	+0	=1583	47%	4
6/18Saturday, June 183:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+29	+24	=1602	53%	0
6/17Friday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1584	–5	–2	=1577	51%	12
6/17Friday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1553	–8	+24	=1569	49%	3
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1442	+24	+0	=1466	32%	10
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1557	+12	+24	=1593	68%	2
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1442	–11	+0	=1431	29%	6
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1556	+5	+24	=1585	71%	7
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%	6
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1558	–27	+24	=1555	66%	5
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1442	–8	–3	=1431	27%	1
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1556	+24	+22	=1602	73%	11
6/12Sunday, June 121:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1554	–14	+0	=1540	54%	6
6/12Sunday, June 121:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1464	+22	+24	=1510	46%	0
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1556	+14	+0	=1570	64%	1
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Brieske	1462	–18	+24	=1468	36%	3
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1554	+2	–1	=1555	64%	10
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1464	–32	+24	=1456	36%	1
6/8Wednesday, June 82:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1556	–21	+0	=1535	57%	4
6/8Wednesday, June 82:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1446	+15	+24	=1485	43%	8
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1555	+25	+0	=1580	64%	7
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1447	+8	+24	=1479	36%	0
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1552	–18	–3	=1531	59%	8
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1450	–2	+24	=1472	41%	0
6/5Sunday, June 51:37 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1517	+11	+0	=1528	40%	8
6/5Sunday, June 51:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1554	+20	+24	=1598	60%	6
6/4Saturday, June 43:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bundy	1520	–14	+0	=1506	40%	3
6/4Saturday, June 43:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1552	–3	+24	=1573	60%	12
6/3Friday, June 37:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gonzalez	1517	–28	–2	=1487	40%	9
6/3Friday, June 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–18	+24	=1561	60%	3
6/2Thursday, June 23:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cueto	1521	–12	+0	=1509	37%	3
6/2Thursday, June 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1553	+24	+24	=1601	63%	8
6/1Wednesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1523	+22	+0	=1545	48%	3
6/1Wednesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1551	–18	+24	=1557	52%	7
5/31Tuesday, May 317:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1524	+24	+0	=1548	43%	5
5/31Tuesday, May 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1550	+22	+22	=1594	57%	6
5/29Sunday, May 294:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1549	+3	+0	=1552	49%	11
5/29Sunday, May 294:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1525	+7	+24	=1556	51%	10
5/28Saturday, May 2810:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1548	–20	+0	=1528	46%	6
5/28Saturday, May 2810:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Lorenzen	1526	+5	+24	=1555	54%	5
5/27Friday, May 279:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1547	+23	+0	=1570	55%	4
5/27Friday, May 279:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Silseth	1527	–18	+24	=1533	45%	3
5/26Thursday, May 269:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1545	–21	–2	=1522	42%	6
5/26Thursday, May 269:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1529	+25	+24	=1578	58%	3
5/24Tuesday, May 247:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1543	+18	+0	=1561	55%	8
5/24Tuesday, May 247:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hicks	1513	–15	+24	=1522	45%	1
5/23Monday, May 237:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1545	+3	–3	=1545	49%	3
5/23Monday, May 237:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1511	+17	+21	=1549	51%	7
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1478	–7	+0	=1471	39%	3
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1546	–21	+24	=1549	61%	2
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1479	–11	+0	=1468	33%	1
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1545	+22	+24	=1591	67%	3
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1479	+29	–2	=1506	44%	1
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1545	–22	+26	=1549	56%	2
5/18Wednesday, May 187:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1495	+0	+0	=1495	36%	5
5/18Wednesday, May 187:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1547	+21	+24	=1592	64%	1
5/17Tuesday, May 177:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1496	+13	+0	=1509	41%	0
5/17Tuesday, May 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	+2	+24	=1572	59%	3
5/16Monday, May 167:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1498	+0	–2	=1496	43%	2
5/16Monday, May 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1544	–24	+21	=1541	57%	6
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+24	+0	=1570	54%	0
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1528	–10	+24	=1542	46%	3
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1544	–22	+0	=1522	48%	5
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1530	–17	+24	=1537	52%	1
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+23	–1	=1568	50%	2
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1528	+17	+22	=1567	50%	5
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1547	+5	+0	=1552	45%	3
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1566	–3	+24	=1587	55%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1548	–27	+0	=1521	40%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1565	–1	+24	=1588	60%	6
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+25	+0	=1574	61%	3
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1498	–26	+24	=1496	39%	4
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1552	–15	+0	=1537	52%	2
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1495	+5	+24	=1524	48%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1550	+21	+2	=1573	52%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1497	+32	+26	=1555	48%	3
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	+11	–2	=1560	59%	5
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1496	–20	+24	=1500	41%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 47:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1567	+1	+0	=1568	54%	1
5/4Wednesday, May 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1550	–32	+24	=1542	46%	2
5/3Tuesday, May 37:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1564	–5	+0	=1559	44%	9
5/3Tuesday, May 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1553	+23	+24	=1600	56%	1
5/2Monday, May 27:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1563	–4	–3	=1556	49%	3
5/2Monday, May 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1554	–14	+24	=1564	51%	2
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1540	–8	+0	=1532	41%	2
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1553	+19	+24	=1596	59%	3
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1541	–3	+0	=1538	43%	1
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1552	+13	+24	=1589	57%	2
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1539	–5	–3	=1531	47%	11
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–29	+24	=1550	53%	7
4/28Thursday, April 283:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1527	–20	+0	=1507	37%	0
4/28Thursday, April 283:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1554	+19	+24	=1597	63%	1
4/27Wednesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1525	–11	+0	=1514	43%	7
4/27Wednesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1557	–16	+24	=1565	57%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 267:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1525	–18	+0	=1507	37%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1556	+16	+24	=1596	63%	6
4/25Monday, April 257:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1527	+13	–3	=1537	43%	2
4/25Monday, April 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1554	+13	+21	=1588	57%	6
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–24	+0	=1531	46%	7
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1537	+0	+24	=1561	54%	8
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1554	+21	+0	=1575	52%	3
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1538	–3	+24	=1559	48%	2
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1553	–15	–4	=1534	39%	4
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1540	+47	+26	=1613	61%	3
4/21Thursday, April 211:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1552	+12	+0	=1564	50%	3
4/21Thursday, April 211:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1529	+11	+24	=1564	50%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1550	+12	+0	=1562	53%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1531	–13	+24	=1542	47%	1
4/19Tuesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1551	–25	+0	=1526	44%	1
4/19Tuesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1530	+13	+24	=1567	56%	2
4/17Sunday, April 171:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Oller	1465	–21	+0	=1444	29%	3
4/17Sunday, April 171:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1550	+22	+24	=1596	71%	4
4/16Saturday, April 163:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1463	–20	+0	=1443	33%	7
4/16Saturday, April 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1552	–14	+24	=1562	67%	5
4/15Friday, April 157:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Jefferies	1464	–11	–3	=1450	35%	1
4/15Friday, April 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1551	–16	+22	=1557	65%	4
4/14Thursday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1553	+11	+0	=1564	47%	0
4/14Thursday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1553	+5	+24	=1582	53%	3
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	+16	+0	=1567	46%	6
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1555	+18	+24	=1597	54%	4
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1553	–23	+0	=1530	44%	0
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1553	–8	+24	=1569	56%	4
4/11Monday, April 117:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1551	+19	–2	=1568	48%	3
4/11Monday, April 117:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1555	–1	+24	=1578	52%	0
4/10Sunday, April 101:37 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Howard	1466	–13	+0	=1453	34%	12
4/10Sunday, April 101:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1555	–9	+24	=1570	66%	6
4/9Saturday, April 93:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1466	+13	+0	=1479	35%	3
4/9Saturday, April 93:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1554	+11	+24	=1589	65%	4
4/8Friday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1467	+18	–3	=1482	34%	8
4/8Friday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1553	+22	+24	=1599	66%	10

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.