Updated May 22, 2022, at 4:28 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Blue Jays have a 6% chance of winning the World Series.

AL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Yankees Yankees29-10	—	97%	75%
Blue Jays Blue Jays22-18	7.5	74%	13%
Rays Rays24-16	5.5	64%	10%
Red Sox Red Sox18-22	11.5	32%	2%
Orioles Orioles16-25	14.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1478	–7	+0	=1471	39%
5/22Sunday, May 221:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1546	–21	+24	=1549	61%
5/23Monday, May 237:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	+3	–3	=1546	50%
5/23Monday, May 237:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1511	+17	+21	=1549	50%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+18	+0	=1564	54%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	46%
5/26Thursday, May 269:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1546	–20	–2	=1524	42%
5/26Thursday, May 269:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1530	+26	+24	=1580	58%
5/27Friday, May 279:38 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+23	+0	=1569	51%
5/27Friday, May 279:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Lorenzen	1530	+6	+24	=1560	49%
5/28Saturday, May 2810:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1546	–21	+0	=1525	45%
5/28Saturday, May 2810:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1530	+3	+24	=1557	55%
5/29Sunday, May 294:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	+3	+0	=1549	49%
5/29Sunday, May 294:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Syndergaard	1530	–1	+24	=1553	51%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1527	+13	+0	=1540	43%
5/31Tuesday, May 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+18	+22	=1586	57%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1527	+18	+0	=1545	49%
6/1Wednesday, June 17:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1546	–20	+24	=1550	51%
6/2Thursday, June 23:07 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+0	=1527	44%
6/2Thursday, June 23:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	56%
6/3Friday, June 37:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	–2	=1522	43%
6/3Friday, June 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
6/4Saturday, June 43:07 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	43%
6/4Saturday, June 43:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
6/5Sunday, June 51:37 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	43%
6/5Sunday, June 51:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–3	=1543	59%
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	41%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	59%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	41%
6/8Wednesday, June 82:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	59%
6/8Wednesday, June 82:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	41%
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–1	=1545	59%
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+24	=1481	41%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	59%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+24	=1481	41%
6/12Sunday, June 121:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	59%
6/12Sunday, June 121:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+24	=1481	41%
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	31%
6/13Monday, June 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+22	=1568	69%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
6/16Thursday, June 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
6/17Friday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	–2	=1573	50%
6/17Friday, June 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	50%
6/18Saturday, June 183:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	51%
6/18Saturday, June 183:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	49%
6/19Sunday, June 191:37 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	51%
6/19Sunday, June 191:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	49%
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–2	=1544	49%
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+21	=1548	51%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	49%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	51%
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	49%
6/22Wednesday, June 222:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1527	+0	+24	=1551	51%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+1	=1547	47%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	53%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	46%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	46%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/27Monday, June 277:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	–2	=1522	43%
6/27Monday, June 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+22	=1568	57%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	43%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	43%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
6/30Thursday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	–3	=1529	44%
6/30Thursday, June 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	56%
7/1Friday, July 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
7/1Friday, July 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
7/2Saturday, July 212:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
7/2Saturday, July 212:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
7/2Saturday, July 26:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
7/2Saturday, July 26:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
7/3Sunday, July 31:37 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
7/3Sunday, July 31:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
7/4Monday, July 49:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–4	=1542	60%
7/4Monday, July 49:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+21	=1474	40%
7/5Tuesday, July 59:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	60%
7/5Tuesday, July 59:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	40%
7/6Wednesday, July 63:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	60%
7/6Wednesday, July 63:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	40%
7/7Thursday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–3	=1543	54%
7/7Thursday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+23	=1518	46%
7/8Friday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	54%
7/8Friday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	46%
7/9Saturday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	54%
7/9Saturday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	46%
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	54%
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	46%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–3	=1517	43%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+22	=1568	57%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	43%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
7/14Thursday, July 147:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	–3	=1455	34%
7/14Thursday, July 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/15Friday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	34%
7/15Friday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/16Saturday, July 163:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	34%
7/16Saturday, July 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/17Sunday, July 1712:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	34%
7/17Sunday, July 1712:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/22Friday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+5	=1551	50%
7/22Friday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+29	=1553	50%
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
7/23Saturday, July 234:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	58%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	58%
7/28Thursday, July 287:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	–2	=1455	34%
7/28Thursday, July 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/29Friday, July 297:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+0	=1457	34%
7/29Friday, July 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/30Saturday, July 303:07 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+0	=1457	34%
7/30Saturday, July 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
7/31Sunday, July 3112:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1457	+0	+0	=1457	34%
7/31Sunday, July 3112:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	66%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–1	=1545	48%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+26	=1558	52%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	49%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	51%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–3	=1543	49%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	51%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	50%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	50%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	50%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–3	=1543	62%
8/8Monday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	38%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	–2	=1496	39%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	61%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+0	=1498	40%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	60%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1498	+0	+0	=1498	40%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	60%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	31%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–2	=1544	42%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	58%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	43%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	57%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	43%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 201:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	57%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	43%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+24	=1599	57%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	–3	=1528	44%
8/26Friday, Aug. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+22	=1568	56%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	44%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 273:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	56%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:37 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	44%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 281:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	56%
8/29Monday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–2	=1474	37%
8/29Monday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	63%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	37%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	63%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	37%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	63%
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/2Friday, Sept. 26:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 412:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 412:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–2	=1544	62%
9/5Monday, Sept. 51:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	38%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–1	=1545	57%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	43%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	57%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	43%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	57%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1474	+0	+24	=1498	43%
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	–2	=1530	45%
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+21	=1567	55%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 131:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 131:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	45%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 153:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	55%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 173:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	31%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	69%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+23	=1543	50%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:45 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	50%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–3	=1543	48%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	52%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	49%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	51%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	49%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	51%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	49%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	51%
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	–2	=1573	51%
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+21	=1567	49%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	51%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	49%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	51%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	49%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	–2	=1522	43%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+26	=1572	57%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 13:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	43%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 13:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:37 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+0	=1524	43%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+24	=1570	57%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	–2	=1544	63%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+22	=1454	37%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	63%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	37%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1479	–11	+0	=1468	33%	1
5/21Saturday, May 213:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1545	+22	+24	=1591	67%	3
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1479	+29	–2	=1506	44%	1
5/20Friday, May 207:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1545	–22	+26	=1549	56%	2
5/18Wednesday, May 187:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1495	+0	+0	=1495	36%	5
5/18Wednesday, May 187:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1547	+21	+24	=1592	64%	1
5/17Tuesday, May 177:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1496	+13	+0	=1509	41%	0
5/17Tuesday, May 177:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	+2	+24	=1572	59%	3
5/16Monday, May 167:07 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1498	+0	–2	=1496	43%	2
5/16Monday, May 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1544	–24	+21	=1541	57%	6
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1546	+24	+0	=1570	54%	0
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1528	–10	+24	=1542	46%	3
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1544	–22	+0	=1522	48%	5
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Yarbrough	1530	–17	+24	=1537	52%	1
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1546	+23	–1	=1568	50%	2
5/13Friday, May 137:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1528	+17	+22	=1567	50%	5
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1547	+5	+0	=1552	45%	3
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1566	–3	+24	=1587	55%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1548	–27	+0	=1521	40%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1565	–1	+24	=1588	60%	6
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+25	+0	=1574	61%	3
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1498	–26	+24	=1496	39%	4
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1552	–15	+0	=1537	52%	2
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1495	+5	+24	=1524	48%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1550	+21	+2	=1573	52%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1497	+32	+26	=1555	48%	3
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	+11	–2	=1560	59%	5
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1496	–20	+24	=1500	41%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 47:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1567	+1	+0	=1568	54%	1
5/4Wednesday, May 47:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1550	–32	+24	=1542	46%	2
5/3Tuesday, May 37:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1564	–5	+0	=1559	44%	9
5/3Tuesday, May 37:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1553	+23	+24	=1600	56%	1
5/2Monday, May 27:07 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1563	–4	–3	=1556	49%	3
5/2Monday, May 27:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1554	–14	+24	=1564	51%	2
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1540	–8	+0	=1532	41%	2
5/1Sunday, May 11:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1553	+19	+24	=1596	59%	3
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1541	–3	+0	=1538	43%	1
4/30Saturday, April 303:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1552	+13	+24	=1589	57%	2
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1539	–5	–3	=1531	47%	11
4/29Friday, April 297:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–29	+24	=1550	53%	7
4/28Thursday, April 283:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1527	–20	+0	=1507	37%	0
4/28Thursday, April 283:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1554	+19	+24	=1597	63%	1
4/27Wednesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Wacha	1525	–11	+0	=1514	43%	7
4/27Wednesday, April 277:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1557	–16	+24	=1565	57%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 267:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1525	–18	+0	=1507	37%	5
4/26Tuesday, April 267:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1556	+16	+24	=1596	63%	6
4/25Monday, April 257:07 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1527	+13	–3	=1537	43%	2
4/25Monday, April 257:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1554	+13	+21	=1588	57%	6
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1555	–24	+0	=1531	46%	7
4/24Sunday, April 242:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1537	+0	+24	=1561	54%	8
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1554	+21	+0	=1575	52%	3
4/23Saturday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1538	–3	+24	=1559	48%	2
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1553	–15	–4	=1534	39%	4
4/22Friday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1540	+47	+26	=1613	61%	3
4/21Thursday, April 211:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1552	+12	+0	=1564	50%	3
4/21Thursday, April 211:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1529	+11	+24	=1564	50%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1550	+12	+0	=1562	53%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 207:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1531	–13	+24	=1542	47%	1
4/19Tuesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1551	–25	+0	=1526	44%	1
4/19Tuesday, April 197:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1530	+13	+24	=1567	56%	2
4/17Sunday, April 171:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Oller	1465	–21	+0	=1444	29%	3
4/17Sunday, April 171:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1550	+22	+24	=1596	71%	4
4/16Saturday, April 163:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1463	–20	+0	=1443	33%	7
4/16Saturday, April 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1552	–14	+24	=1562	67%	5
4/15Friday, April 157:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Jefferies	1464	–11	–3	=1450	35%	1
4/15Friday, April 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1551	–16	+22	=1557	65%	4
4/14Thursday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1553	+11	+0	=1564	47%	0
4/14Thursday, April 147:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1553	+5	+24	=1582	53%	3
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	+16	+0	=1567	46%	6
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1555	+18	+24	=1597	54%	4
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1553	–23	+0	=1530	44%	0
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1553	–8	+24	=1569	56%	4
4/11Monday, April 117:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1551	+19	–2	=1568	48%	3
4/11Monday, April 117:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1555	–1	+24	=1578	52%	0
4/10Sunday, April 101:37 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Howard	1466	–13	+0	=1453	34%	12
4/10Sunday, April 101:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Ryu	1555	–9	+24	=1570	66%	6
4/9Saturday, April 93:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1466	+13	+0	=1479	35%	3
4/9Saturday, April 93:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1554	+11	+24	=1589	65%	4
4/8Friday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1467	+18	–3	=1482	34%	8
4/8Friday, April 87:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1553	+22	+24	=1599	66%	10

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.