Updated May 22, 2022, at 3:09 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Braves have a 5% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Mets Mets27-15	—	80%	53%
Braves Braves19-21	7.0	63%	32%
Phillies Phillies18-22	8.0	35%	12%
Marlins Marlins17-22	8.5	12%	4%
Nationals Nationals13-28	13.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1542	+1	+0	=1543	51%
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+22	+24	=1538	49%
5/23Monday, May 237:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1520	+28	–3	=1545	51%
5/23Monday, May 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1542	–27	+21	=1536	49%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Gibson	1520	–11	+0	=1509	39%
5/24Tuesday, May 247:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1542	+23	+24	=1589	61%
5/25Wednesday, May 257:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1520	–5	+0	=1515	42%
5/25Wednesday, May 257:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1542	+8	+24	=1574	58%
5/26Thursday, May 267:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1520	+7	+0	=1527	47%
5/26Thursday, May 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1542	–19	+24	=1547	53%
5/27Friday, May 277:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1492	–28	+0	=1464	36%
5/27Friday, May 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1542	+1	+24	=1567	64%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+22	+0	=1514	46%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1542	–27	+24	=1539	54%
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1492	+20	+0	=1512	39%
5/29Sunday, May 291:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1542	+23	+24	=1589	61%
5/30Monday, May 308:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1542	+8	–4	=1546	54%
5/30Monday, May 308:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1466	+32	+24	=1522	46%
5/31Tuesday, May 319:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1542	–19	+0	=1523	57%
5/31Tuesday, May 319:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Castellanos	1466	–14	+24	=1476	43%
6/1Wednesday, June 13:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1542	+1	+0	=1543	58%
6/1Wednesday, June 13:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Bumgarner	1466	+0	+24	=1490	42%
6/2Thursday, June 28:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	57%
6/2Thursday, June 28:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	43%
6/3Friday, June 38:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	58%
6/3Friday, June 38:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	42%
6/4Saturday, June 49:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	58%
6/4Saturday, June 49:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	42%
6/5Sunday, June 53:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	58%
6/5Sunday, June 53:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	42%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:20 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	–2	=1451	34%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+23	=1564	66%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:20 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+0	=1453	34%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	66%
6/9Thursday, June 97:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	32%
6/9Thursday, June 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	68%
6/10Friday, June 107:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	32%
6/10Friday, June 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	68%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	32%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	68%
6/12Sunday, June 121:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	32%
6/12Sunday, June 121:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	68%
6/13Monday, June 137:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	58%
6/13Monday, June 137:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	42%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
6/17Friday, June 172:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	56%
6/17Friday, June 172:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	44%
6/18Saturday, June 182:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	56%
6/18Saturday, June 182:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	44%
6/19Sunday, June 192:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	56%
6/19Sunday, June 192:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	44%
6/20Monday, June 207:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	–2	=1521	44%
6/20Monday, June 207:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+21	=1562	56%
6/21Tuesday, June 217:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	44%
6/21Tuesday, June 217:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	56%
6/22Wednesday, June 227:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	44%
6/22Wednesday, June 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	56%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	44%
6/23Thursday, June 2312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	56%
6/24Friday, June 247:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	–2	=1590	53%
6/24Friday, June 247:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	47%
6/25Saturday, June 257:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	54%
6/25Saturday, June 257:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	46%
6/26Sunday, June 261:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	54%
6/26Sunday, June 261:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	46%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	50%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+22	=1542	50%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
6/30Thursday, June 306:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
6/30Thursday, June 306:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
7/1Friday, July 16:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–2	=1539	55%
7/1Friday, July 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+22	=1502	45%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	55%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	45%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	55%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	45%
7/4Monday, July 47:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	42%
7/4Monday, July 47:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+22	=1563	58%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	58%
7/6Wednesday, July 67:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/6Wednesday, July 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	58%
7/7Thursday, July 77:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	42%
7/7Thursday, July 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	58%
7/8Friday, July 87:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	–3	=1453	35%
7/8Friday, July 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	65%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	35%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	65%
7/10Sunday, July 101:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	35%
7/10Sunday, July 101:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	65%
7/11Monday, July 117:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–3	=1529	45%
7/11Monday, July 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
7/13Wednesday, July 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
7/13Wednesday, July 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
7/14Thursday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	58%
7/14Thursday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	42%
7/15Friday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
7/15Friday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
7/16Saturday, July 164:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
7/16Saturday, July 164:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
7/17Sunday, July 171:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
7/17Sunday, July 171:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
7/22Friday, July 227:20 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+3	=1534	45%
7/22Friday, July 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+28	=1569	55%
7/23Saturday, July 237:20 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	45%
7/23Saturday, July 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	45%
7/24Sunday, July 241:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
7/25Monday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	49%
7/25Monday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	51%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
7/27Wednesday, July 2712:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
7/27Wednesday, July 2712:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
7/29Friday, July 297:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	–2	=1464	36%
7/29Friday, July 297:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+23	=1564	64%
7/30Saturday, July 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	36%
7/30Saturday, July 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	64%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	36%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	64%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	43%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+26	=1567	57%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 312:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	44%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	56%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	48%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+22	=1554	52%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	48%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	52%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	48%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 61:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	52%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	48%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	52%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 71:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	48%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 71:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	52%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	49%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+23	=1547	51%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	49%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	51%
8/12Friday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	54%
8/12Friday, Aug. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	46%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–3	=1529	45%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+21	=1562	55%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	–3	=1551	48%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	52%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:15 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	48%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 207:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	52%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1553	+1	+0	=1554	48%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	52%
8/22Monday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–2	=1539	61%
8/22Monday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	39%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	62%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	38%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 2412:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	62%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 2412:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	38%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	51%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+22	=1534	49%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	51%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	49%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	51%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	49%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	–1	=1461	36%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	64%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	36%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	64%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 17:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	36%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 17:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	64%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–1	=1491	40%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	60%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	40%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	60%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	40%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	60%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 69:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–2	=1539	59%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 69:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+22	=1475	41%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 73:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 73:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1452	+1	+24	=1477	41%
9/9Friday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–1	=1540	53%
9/9Friday, Sept. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+26	=1521	47%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	53%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 109:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	47%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 114:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	53%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 114:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1493	+2	+24	=1519	47%
9/12Monday, Sept. 129:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	49%
9/12Monday, Sept. 129:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+20	=1543	51%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 139:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	49%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 139:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	51%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 143:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	49%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 143:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	51%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–3	=1517	43%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+22	=1563	57%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	44%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	56%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	44%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	56%
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	–3	=1453	35%
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	65%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	35%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	65%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 2112:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+0	=1456	35%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 2112:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	65%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	49%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	51%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
9/23Friday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 244:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 244:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	50%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+24	=1544	50%
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–2	=1539	59%
9/26Monday, Sept. 267:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+21	=1477	41%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	59%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	41%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–1	=1531	45%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+23	=1564	55%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	45%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+24	=1565	55%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	–3	=1538	54%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+21	=1513	46%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	ATLBraves	—	1542	–1	+0	=1541	54%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+24	=1516	46%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/21Saturday, May 216:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1541	–22	+0	=1519	55%	4
5/21Saturday, May 216:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1493	–31	+24	=1486	45%	3
5/20Friday, May 206:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1539	+11	–1	=1549	54%	5
5/20Friday, May 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1494	+2	+26	=1522	46%	3
5/18Wednesday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1540	+24	+0	=1564	44%	6
5/18Wednesday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1543	+37	+24	=1604	56%	7
5/17Tuesday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1538	–32	+0	=1506	44%	3
5/17Tuesday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1545	–20	+24	=1549	56%	0
5/16Monday, May 167:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1539	–1	–3	=1535	45%	0
5/16Monday, May 167:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1544	+3	+21	=1568	55%	1
5/15Sunday, May 1511:35 a.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1536	+12	+0	=1548	51%	7
5/15Sunday, May 1511:35 a.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1541	–25	+24	=1540	49%	3
5/14Saturday, May 144:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Manaea	1537	+2	+0	=1539	45%	5
5/14Saturday, May 144:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1540	+9	+24	=1573	55%	6
5/13Friday, May 137:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1534	–1	–2	=1531	40%	11
5/13Friday, May 137:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1543	+30	+26	=1599	60%	6
5/11Wednesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1519	+12	+0	=1531	45%	3
5/11Wednesday, May 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1542	+2	+24	=1568	55%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 107:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Whitlock	1517	–17	–1	=1499	43%	9
5/10Tuesday, May 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1544	–21	+26	=1549	57%	4
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1550	–38	+0	=1512	42%	2
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1542	+5	+24	=1571	58%	9
5/7Saturday, May 77:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1551	+36	+0	=1587	49%	2
5/7Saturday, May 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1541	+27	+24	=1592	51%	3
5/6Friday, May 67:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1549	–8	–3	=1538	46%	6
5/6Friday, May 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Chavez (open)	1543	+0	+23	=1566	54%	3
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1540	+3	+0	=1543	51%	9
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1535	–22	+24	=1537	49%	2
5/3Tuesday, May 36:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1542	–20	+0	=1522	48%	0
5/3Tuesday, May 36:45 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1533	–24	+24	=1533	52%	3
5/3Tuesday, May 33:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1543	+8	+0	=1551	54%	4
5/3Tuesday, May 33:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1532	–31	+24	=1525	46%	5
5/2Monday, May 27:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1542	+26	–3	=1565	50%	5
5/2Monday, May 27:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Bassitt	1534	+8	+24	=1566	50%	2
5/1Sunday, May 12:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Muller	1544	–18	+0	=1526	57%	3
5/1Sunday, May 12:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Hearn	1465	–13	+24	=1476	43%	7
4/30Saturday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1545	–32	+0	=1513	52%	1
4/30Saturday, April 307:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1463	+10	+24	=1497	48%	3
4/29Friday, April 298:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1544	–1	–3	=1540	57%	6
4/29Friday, April 298:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Richards (open)	1465	–1	+24	=1488	43%	3
4/28Thursday, April 287:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1483	–1	+0	=1482	42%	1
4/28Thursday, April 287:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1542	–26	+24	=1540	58%	5
4/27Wednesday, April 277:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Leiter Jr.	1481	–25	+0	=1456	33%	6
4/27Wednesday, April 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1545	+12	+24	=1581	67%	3
4/26Tuesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1482	+12	–1	=1493	36%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1544	+24	+26	=1594	64%	3
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1489	–26	+0	=1463	39%	5
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1545	–30	+24	=1539	61%	4
4/23Saturday, April 237:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1487	–21	+0	=1466	35%	9
4/23Saturday, April 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%	7
4/22Friday, April 227:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1489	+1	–3	=1487	43%	0
4/22Friday, April 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1546	–34	+22	=1534	57%	3
4/20Wednesday, April 203:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1547	+16	+0	=1563	45%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 203:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1587	–10	+24	=1601	55%	5
4/19Tuesday, April 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1546	+18	+0	=1564	42%	3
4/19Tuesday, April 1910:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1589	+10	+24	=1623	58%	1
4/18Monday, April 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1547	–17	–1	=1529	36%	4
4/18Monday, April 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1587	+15	+24	=1626	64%	7
4/17Sunday, April 177 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1548	–29	+0	=1519	46%	1
4/17Sunday, April 177 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1531	–9	+24	=1546	54%	2
4/16Saturday, April 164:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1546	+0	+0	=1546	55%	5
4/16Saturday, April 164:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1533	–44	+24	=1513	45%	2
4/15Friday, April 159:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1544	–38	+0	=1506	46%	5
4/15Friday, April 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1535	–28	+24	=1531	54%	2
4/14Thursday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1548	+22	–4	=1566	51%	1
4/14Thursday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1531	+5	+22	=1558	49%	12
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1467	–10	+0	=1457	32%	3
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1550	+17	+24	=1591	68%	1
4/12Tuesday, April 127:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1470	–10	+0	=1460	39%	4
4/12Tuesday, April 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1547	–30	+24	=1541	61%	16
4/11Monday, April 117:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Rogers	1465	–10	–3	=1452	35%	11
4/11Monday, April 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Ynoa	1552	–14	+24	=1562	65%	2
4/10Sunday, April 101:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1500	–12	+0	=1488	37%	6
4/10Sunday, April 101:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1554	+2	+24	=1580	63%	3
4/9Saturday, April 97:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1501	–14	+0	=1487	44%	1
4/9Saturday, April 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1553	–49	+24	=1528	56%	2
4/8Friday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Sanmartin	1501	–3	+0	=1498	36%	6
4/8Friday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1553	+20	+24	=1597	64%	7
4/7Thursday, April 78 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1499	+16	–2	=1513	38%	6
4/7Thursday, April 78 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1555	+19	+24	=1598	62%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.