Updated May 22, 2022, at 3:09 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Brewers have an 8% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers26-14	—	91%	77%
Cardinals Cardinals23-18	3.5	54%	21%
Cubs Cubs15-24	10.5	5%	1%
Reds Reds11-28	14.5	3%	<1%
Pirates Pirates16-24	10.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Sanchez	1458	–11	+0	=1447	32%
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1547	+7	+24	=1578	68%
5/23Monday, May 239:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1547	–18	–4	=1525	41%
5/23Monday, May 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1541	+23	+22	=1586	59%
5/24Tuesday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1547	+32	+0	=1579	52%
5/24Tuesday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1541	+2	+24	=1567	48%
5/25Wednesday, May 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1547	–45	+0	=1502	41%
5/25Wednesday, May 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1541	–1	+24	=1564	59%
5/26Thursday, May 267:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1547	–4	–4	=1539	47%
5/26Thursday, May 267:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1511	+26	+26	=1563	53%
5/27Friday, May 278:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
5/27Friday, May 278:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1511	+0	+24	=1535	48%
5/28Saturday, May 282:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1547	+7	+0	=1554	54%
5/28Saturday, May 282:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1511	–10	+24	=1525	46%
5/29Sunday, May 292:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1547	–18	+0	=1529	47%
5/29Sunday, May 292:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1511	+17	+24	=1552	53%
5/30Monday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1547	+32	–2	=1577	59%
5/30Monday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1476	+17	+23	=1516	41%
5/30Monday, May 307:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1547	–45	+0	=1502	51%
5/30Monday, May 307:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1476	–7	+24	=1493	49%
5/31Tuesday, May 318:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1547	–4	+0	=1543	56%
5/31Tuesday, May 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1476	+0	+24	=1500	44%
6/1Wednesday, June 18:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1547	+1	+0	=1548	56%
6/1Wednesday, June 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Miley	1476	+3	+24	=1503	44%
6/2Thursday, June 27:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	–2	=1541	46%
6/2Thursday, June 27:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+23	=1571	54%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	+0	=1543	46%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	+0	=1543	46%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1541	+2	+0	=1543	46%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	–1	=1519	42%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+26	=1574	58%
6/8Wednesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	43%
6/8Wednesday, June 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	57%
6/9Thursday, June 92:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1520	+0	+0	=1520	43%
6/9Thursday, June 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	57%
6/10Friday, June 107:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–3	=1545	60%
6/10Friday, June 107:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+21	=1477	40%
6/11Saturday, June 114:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	60%
6/11Saturday, June 114:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	40%
6/12Sunday, June 121:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	60%
6/12Sunday, June 121:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1458	–2	+24	=1480	40%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	49%
6/14Tuesday, June 147:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+22	=1554	51%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	49%
6/15Wednesday, June 157:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	51%
6/16Thursday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	49%
6/16Thursday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+24	=1556	51%
6/17Friday, June 176:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–3	=1545	56%
6/17Friday, June 176:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+22	=1502	44%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	56%
6/18Saturday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	44%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	56%
6/19Sunday, June 191:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	44%
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–3	=1509	41%
6/20Monday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+22	=1570	59%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
6/21Tuesday, June 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
6/22Wednesday, June 228:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
6/22Wednesday, June 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
6/23Thursday, June 232:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
6/23Thursday, June 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+1	=1547	47%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	53%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	46%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1546	+0	+0	=1546	46%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	54%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–1	=1547	48%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+26	=1558	52%
6/29Wednesday, June 2912:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	49%
6/29Wednesday, June 2912:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+24	=1556	51%
6/30Thursday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–3	=1545	63%
6/30Thursday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+22	=1456	37%
7/1Friday, July 17:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	63%
7/1Friday, July 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
7/2Saturday, July 24:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	63%
7/2Saturday, July 24:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
7/3Sunday, July 31:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	63%
7/3Sunday, July 31:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–1	=1475	37%
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+22	=1570	63%
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	37%
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
7/6Wednesday, July 62:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	37%
7/6Wednesday, July 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	31%
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+26	=1574	69%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	31%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	69%
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	31%
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	69%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+23	=1547	50%
7/13Wednesday, July 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/13Wednesday, July 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+24	=1548	50%
7/14Thursday, July 149:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–4	=1544	50%
7/14Thursday, July 149:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	50%
7/15Friday, July 1510:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/15Friday, July 1510:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	50%
7/16Saturday, July 167:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/16Saturday, July 167:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	50%
7/17Sunday, July 174:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/17Sunday, July 174:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+24	=1547	50%
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+4	=1466	35%
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+27	=1575	65%
7/23Saturday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	35%
7/23Saturday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	35%
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%
7/25Monday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+0	=1462	35%
7/25Monday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%
7/26Tuesday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	43%
7/26Tuesday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	57%
7/27Wednesday, July 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1523	+1	+0	=1524	43%
7/27Wednesday, July 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	57%
7/29Friday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–1	=1547	50%
7/29Friday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
7/30Saturday, July 304:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/30Saturday, July 304:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	50%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1526	–2	+24	=1548	50%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	62%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+26	=1460	38%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	63%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 412:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	63%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 412:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	37%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	–1	=1479	37%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+22	=1570	63%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	37%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	37%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	44%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+26	=1574	56%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1531	+1	+0	=1532	44%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	56%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+21	=1533	48%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	48%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	48%
8/15Monday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	–2	=1590	53%
8/15Monday, Aug. 158:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+22	=1570	47%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	53%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	47%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	53%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 178:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	47%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+0	=1592	53%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	47%
8/19Friday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–1	=1547	57%
8/19Friday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+23	=1499	43%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 202:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	57%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 202:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	43%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 212:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	57%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 212:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+24	=1500	43%
8/22Monday, Aug. 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–4	=1544	40%
8/22Monday, Aug. 2210:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	60%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 2310:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	40%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 2310:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	60%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 249 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	40%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 249 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1594	–2	+24	=1616	60%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	–1	=1475	37%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+22	=1570	63%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	37%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1476	+0	+0	=1476	37%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
8/29Monday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	–3	=1431	31%
8/29Monday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	69%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	31%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	69%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	31%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	69%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–4	=1544	58%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	42%
9/2Friday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	58%
9/2Friday, Sept. 29:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	42%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	58%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	42%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	58%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+24	=1490	42%
9/5Monday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–3	=1545	59%
9/5Monday, Sept. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+21	=1483	41%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	59%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	41%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 73:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	59%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 73:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1462	+0	+24	=1486	41%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 84:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	–4	=1519	43%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+21	=1569	57%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1523	+0	+0	=1523	43%
9/8Thursday, Sept. 87:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	57%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	–1	=1479	37%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	37%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+0	=1480	37%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	63%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+23	=1535	48%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:45 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	52%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+24	=1536	48%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	–1	=1574	50%
9/16Friday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	50%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	50%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	50%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1574	+1	+0	=1575	50%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	50%
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	–3	=1529	44%
9/19Monday, Sept. 197:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	56%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	44%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	56%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 212:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1534	–2	+0	=1532	44%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 212:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	56%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	–2	=1546	56%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	44%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	56%
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	44%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	56%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	44%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+0	=1548	56%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1478	+2	+24	=1504	44%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	–2	=1510	41%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1511	+1	+0	=1512	41%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	59%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	–3	=1489	38%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	62%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	39%
9/30Friday, Sept. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	61%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	39%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	61%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1492	+0	+0	=1492	39%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	61%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	–4	=1462	35%
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	35%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1466	+0	+0	=1466	35%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	MILBrewers	—	1547	+1	+24	=1572	65%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1460	–9	+0	=1451	34%	1
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1546	–1	+24	=1569	66%	5
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Fedde	1461	–6	–1	=1454	35%	0
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1544	–8	+26	=1562	65%	7
5/18Wednesday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1540	+24	+0	=1564	44%	6
5/18Wednesday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1543	+37	+24	=1604	56%	7
5/17Tuesday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Davidson	1538	–32	+0	=1506	44%	3
5/17Tuesday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1545	–20	+24	=1549	56%	0
5/16Monday, May 167:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Anderson	1539	–1	–3	=1535	45%	0
5/16Monday, May 167:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1544	+3	+21	=1568	55%	1
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1542	+4	+0	=1546	58%	7
5/15Sunday, May 151:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hernandez	1493	–28	+24	=1489	42%	3
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1545	–3	+0	=1542	54%	3
5/14Saturday, May 146:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1491	+1	+24	=1516	46%	9
5/13Friday, May 136:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1544	+38	–1	=1581	57%	2
5/13Friday, May 136:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Lopez	1492	+20	+22	=1534	43%	1
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1546	–15	+0	=1531	57%	11
5/11Wednesday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1473	–17	+24	=1480	43%	14
5/10Tuesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1545	–1	+0	=1544	60%	5
5/10Tuesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1474	–22	+24	=1476	40%	4
5/9Monday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1548	+8	–2	=1554	53%	5
5/9Monday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1472	+36	+24	=1532	47%	10
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1550	–38	+0	=1512	42%	2
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1542	+5	+24	=1571	58%	9
5/7Saturday, May 77:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1551	+36	+0	=1587	49%	2
5/7Saturday, May 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1541	+27	+24	=1592	51%	3
5/6Friday, May 67:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1549	–8	–3	=1538	46%	6
5/6Friday, May 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Chavez (open)	1543	+0	+23	=1566	54%	3
5/5Thursday, May 51:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1472	–6	+0	=1466	37%	5
5/5Thursday, May 51:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1548	–15	+24	=1557	63%	10
5/4Wednesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gutierrez	1474	–13	+0	=1461	35%	4
5/4Wednesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1545	–4	+24	=1565	65%	18
5/3Tuesday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1475	+17	–1	=1491	38%	3
5/3Tuesday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1544	+6	+26	=1576	62%	6
5/1Sunday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1477	+14	+0	=1491	34%	2
5/1Sunday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1546	+35	+24	=1605	66%	0
4/30Saturday, April 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1479	–9	+0	=1470	38%	1
4/30Saturday, April 307:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1544	–12	+24	=1556	62%	9
4/29Friday, April 298:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1482	+2	–3	=1481	41%	1
4/29Friday, April 298:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1541	–17	+22	=1546	59%	11
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1540	–5	+0	=1535	60%	3
4/28Thursday, April 2812:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Quintana	1443	+1	+24	=1468	40%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 276:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1539	–42	+0	=1497	55%	3
4/27Wednesday, April 276:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Peters	1444	–2	+24	=1466	45%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 266:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1538	+13	–2	=1549	61%	12
4/26Tuesday, April 266:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1445	–2	+24	=1467	39%	8
4/25Monday, April 256:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Long	1531	–26	–3	=1502	37%	4
4/25Monday, April 256:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1540	+33	+21	=1594	63%	2
4/24Sunday, April 247 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1538	–14	+0	=1524	48%	1
4/24Sunday, April 247 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1514	+2	+24	=1540	52%	0
4/23Saturday, April 234:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1537	–15	+0	=1522	44%	5
4/23Saturday, April 234:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1516	+23	+24	=1563	56%	3
4/22Friday, April 227:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1538	–5	–1	=1532	49%	2
4/22Friday, April 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1515	+1	+22	=1538	51%	4
4/20Wednesday, April 201:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1447	–7	+0	=1440	32%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 201:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1537	+12	+24	=1573	68%	4
4/19Tuesday, April 197:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1447	+1	+0	=1448	30%	2
4/19Tuesday, April 197:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1537	+35	+24	=1596	70%	5
4/18Monday, April 187:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Thompson	1449	+18	–2	=1465	39%	1
4/18Monday, April 187:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1535	–14	+24	=1545	61%	6
4/17Sunday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1506	+0	+0	=1506	48%	5
4/17Sunday, April 172:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Ashby	1534	–38	+24	=1520	52%	6
4/16Saturday, April 167:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–8	+0	=1497	43%	2
4/16Saturday, April 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1535	–16	+24	=1543	57%	1
4/15Friday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1501	+4	+0	=1505	41%	10
4/15Friday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1539	+1	+24	=1564	59%	1
4/14Thursday, April 145:14 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1503	+32	+0	=1535	45%	1
4/14Thursday, April 145:14 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1537	+10	+21	=1568	55%	5
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1536	+31	+0	=1567	63%	4
4/13Wednesday, April 137:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Means	1428	+24	+24	=1476	37%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1536	–12	+0	=1524	64%	5
4/12Tuesday, April 127:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1429	–28	+24	=1425	36%	4
4/11Monday, April 113:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1538	–15	–3	=1520	61%	0
4/11Monday, April 113:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1427	–8	+21	=1440	39%	2
4/10Sunday, April 102:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1537	+4	+0	=1541	52%	5
4/10Sunday, April 102:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1484	+19	+24	=1527	48%	4
4/9Saturday, April 92:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1540	+16	+2	=1558	59%	0
4/9Saturday, April 92:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1480	–11	+26	=1495	41%	9
4/7Thursday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1542	+32	–1	=1573	60%	4
4/7Thursday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1479	–2	+24	=1501	40%	5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.