2022 MLB Predictions
Updated after every game.
The Cubs are done for the season.
NL Central standings
Games back | Chance to make playoffs | Make playoffs | Chance to win division | Win division | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CardinalsCardinals93-69 | — | ✓ | ✓ | |||
BrewersBrewers86-76 | 7.0 | — | — | |||
CubsCubs74-88 | 19.0 | — | — | |||
RedsReds62-100 | 31.0 | — | — | |||
PiratesPirates62-100 | 31.0 | — | — |
Pitcher ratings
Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.
Team rating
Completed games
Date | Team | Starting pitcher | Team rating | Starting pitcher adj. | Travel, rest & home field adj. | Pregame team rating | Win prob.Chance of winning | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1477 | –2 | +0 | =1475 | 51% | 15 |
CINReds | Ashcraft | 1455 | –10 | +24 | =1469 | 49% | 2 | |
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Assad | 1478 | –16 | +0 | =1462 | 49% | 2 |
CINReds | Cessa | 1454 | –11 | +24 | =1467 | 51% | 3 | |
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Wesneski | 1480 | –4 | –2 | =1474 | 48% | 1 |
CINReds | Greene | 1452 | +16 | +22 | =1490 | 52% | 3 | |
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:20 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Anderson | 1454 | –6 | +0 | =1448 | 40% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1478 | +19 | +24 | =1521 | 60% | 8 | |
10/1Saturday, Oct. 12:20 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Lodolo | 1455 | +24 | +0 | =1479 | 46% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1477 | +3 | +24 | =1504 | 54% | 2 | |
9/30Friday, Sept. 302:20 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Ashcraft | 1457 | –4 | +0 | =1453 | 44% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1475 | –3 | +24 | =1496 | 56% | 6 | |
9/29Thursday, Sept. 292:20 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Suarez | 1527 | +2 | +0 | =1529 | 57% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Assad | 1473 | –19 | +24 | =1478 | 43% | 2 | |
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 287:40 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Nola | 1529 | +28 | +0 | =1557 | 59% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Wesneski | 1471 | –4 | +24 | =1491 | 41% | 4 | |
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 277:40 p.m. Eastern | PHIPhillies | Wheeler | 1530 | +28 | –1 | =1557 | 57% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1470 | +16 | +24 | =1510 | 43% | 2 | |
9/25Sunday, Sept. 251:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1468 | –3 | +0 | =1465 | 51% | 8 |
PITPirates | Ortiz | 1428 | +6 | +24 | =1458 | 49% | 3 | |
9/24Saturday, Sept. 246:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Miley | 1471 | –7 | +0 | =1464 | 54% | 0 |
PITPirates | Oviedo | 1425 | –13 | +24 | =1436 | 46% | 6 | |
9/23Friday, Sept. 236:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Assad | 1470 | –12 | +0 | =1458 | 54% | 6 |
PITPirates | Wilson | 1426 | –21 | +24 | =1429 | 46% | 5 | |
9/22Thursday, Sept. 226:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Wesneski | 1469 | –5 | –3 | =1461 | 51% | 3 |
PITPirates | Keller | 1427 | +7 | +22 | =1456 | 49% | 2 | |
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1468 | +17 | +0 | =1485 | 51% | 4 |
MIAMarlins | Luzardo | 1464 | –8 | +24 | =1480 | 49% | 3 | |
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1467 | –5 | +0 | =1462 | 47% | 2 |
MIAMarlins | Lopez | 1465 | –6 | +24 | =1483 | 53% | 1 | |
9/19Monday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Miley | 1469 | +0 | –3 | =1466 | 48% | 3 |
MIAMarlins | Cabrera | 1462 | –1 | +21 | =1482 | 52% | 10 | |
9/18Sunday, Sept. 182:20 p.m. Eastern | COLRockies | Feltner | 1458 | –12 | +0 | =1446 | 44% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Assad | 1470 | –7 | +24 | =1487 | 56% | 3 | |
9/17Saturday, Sept. 172:20 p.m. Eastern | COLRockies | Urena | 1456 | –25 | +0 | =1431 | 43% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Wesneski | 1472 | –17 | +24 | =1479 | 57% | 1 | |
9/16Friday, Sept. 162:20 p.m. Eastern | COLRockies | Marquez | 1457 | +12 | +1 | =1470 | 45% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1471 | +14 | +23 | =1508 | 55% | 2 | |
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1469 | +3 | +0 | =1472 | 38% | 6 |
NYMMets | Peterson | 1553 | –18 | +24 | =1559 | 62% | 3 | |
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1466 | –9 | +0 | =1457 | 25% | 4 |
NYMMets | deGrom | 1556 | +64 | +24 | =1644 | 75% | 1 | |
9/12Monday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Assad | 1463 | –9 | –3 | =1451 | 31% | 5 |
NYMMets | Bassitt | 1558 | +8 | +21 | =1587 | 69% | 2 | |
9/11Sunday, Sept. 118 p.m. Eastern | SFGiants | Brebbia (open) | 1500 | +1 | +0 | =1501 | 52% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Miley | 1465 | +0 | +24 | =1489 | 48% | 2 | |
9/10Saturday, Sept. 102:20 p.m. Eastern | SFGiants | Webb | 1498 | +8 | +0 | =1506 | 50% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1466 | +19 | +24 | =1509 | 50% | 2 | |
9/9Friday, Sept. 94:05 p.m. Eastern | SFGiants | Rodon | 1500 | +27 | –1 | =1526 | 55% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1465 | –1 | +24 | =1488 | 45% | 4 | |
9/8Thursday, Sept. 82:20 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Cessa | 1472 | –14 | +0 | =1458 | 47% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1466 | –9 | +24 | =1481 | 53% | 3 | |
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 77:40 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Minor | 1469 | –11 | +0 | =1458 | 46% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Assad | 1469 | –6 | +24 | =1487 | 54% | 1 | |
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 67:40 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Dunn | 1472 | –5 | +0 | =1467 | 47% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Miley | 1466 | +1 | +24 | =1491 | 53% | 9 | |
9/4Sunday, Sept. 42:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1467 | +16 | +0 | =1483 | 38% | 0 |
STLCardinals | Mikolas | 1537 | +6 | +24 | =1567 | 62% | 2 | |
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1469 | +7 | +0 | =1476 | 35% | 4 |
STLCardinals | Wainwright | 1536 | +27 | +24 | =1587 | 65% | 8 | |
9/2Friday, Sept. 28:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1470 | –12 | –1 | =1457 | 33% | 0 |
STLCardinals | Montgomery | 1534 | +21 | +24 | =1579 | 67% | 8 | |
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 317:07 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Farrell | 1468 | –31 | +0 | =1437 | 35% | 7 |
TORBlue Jays | White | 1540 | –19 | +24 | =1545 | 65% | 5 | |
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 307:07 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1469 | +13 | +0 | =1482 | 36% | 3 |
TORBlue Jays | Gausman | 1539 | +19 | +24 | =1582 | 64% | 5 | |
8/29Monday, Aug. 297:07 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Assad | 1470 | –10 | –2 | =1458 | 36% | 4 |
TORBlue Jays | Berrios | 1538 | –7 | +24 | =1555 | 64% | 5 | |
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1471 | –12 | +0 | =1459 | 38% | 7 |
MILBrewers | Lauer | 1528 | –4 | +24 | =1548 | 62% | 9 | |
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1473 | +6 | +0 | =1479 | 38% | 0 |
MILBrewers | Woodruff | 1526 | +16 | +24 | =1566 | 62% | 7 | |
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1471 | +13 | –1 | =1483 | 39% | 4 |
MILBrewers | Peralta | 1527 | +11 | +22 | =1560 | 61% | 3 | |
8/25Thursday, Aug. 252:20 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Hudson | 1530 | –11 | +0 | =1519 | 50% | 8 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1474 | +19 | +24 | =1517 | 50% | 3 | |
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:05 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Mikolas | 1533 | +10 | +0 | =1543 | 57% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Farrell (open) | 1471 | +2 | +24 | =1497 | 43% | 7 | |
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:05 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Woodford | 1530 | –18 | +0 | =1512 | 53% | 13 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1474 | –7 | +24 | =1491 | 47% | 3 | |
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 232:20 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Wainwright | 1532 | +25 | +0 | =1557 | 61% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Assad | 1472 | –14 | +24 | =1482 | 39% | 2 | |
8/22Monday, Aug. 228:05 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Montgomery | 1531 | +17 | –4 | =1544 | 57% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1473 | +1 | +24 | =1498 | 43% | 0 | |
8/21Sunday, Aug. 212:20 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Woodruff | 1527 | +17 | +0 | =1544 | 55% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1474 | +8 | +24 | =1506 | 45% | 2 | |
8/20Saturday, Aug. 202:20 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Peralta | 1528 | +10 | +0 | =1538 | 53% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1473 | +17 | +24 | =1514 | 47% | 6 | |
8/19Friday, Aug. 192:20 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Ashby | 1529 | –32 | –1 | =1496 | 52% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1472 | –11 | +21 | =1482 | 48% | 8 | |
8/18Thursday, Aug. 183:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1471 | –8 | –1 | =1462 | 45% | 3 |
BALOrioles | Watkins | 1483 | –11 | +22 | =1494 | 55% | 2 | |
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 171:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1470 | +1 | +0 | =1471 | 52% | 3 |
WSHNationals | Abbott | 1431 | +4 | +24 | =1459 | 48% | 2 | |
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1469 | +7 | +0 | =1476 | 55% | 7 |
WSHNationals | Corbin | 1432 | –19 | +24 | =1437 | 45% | 5 | |
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1470 | +20 | –2 | =1488 | 53% | 4 |
WSHNationals | Gray | 1431 | +12 | +24 | =1467 | 47% | 5 | |
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1471 | –6 | +0 | =1465 | 47% | 5 |
CINReds | Dunn | 1469 | –6 | +24 | =1487 | 53% | 8 | |
8/13Saturday, Aug. 136:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1469 | –8 | +2 | =1463 | 45% | 7 |
CINReds | Ashcraft | 1472 | +1 | +26 | =1499 | 55% | 2 | |
8/11Thursday, Aug. 117:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1468 | –3 | –2 | =1463 | 50% | 4 |
CINReds | Lodolo | 1473 | –7 | –3 | =1463 | 50% | 2 | |
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 102:20 p.m. Eastern | WSHNationals | Gray | 1434 | +11 | +0 | =1445 | 43% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1466 | +5 | +24 | =1495 | 57% | 4 | |
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:05 p.m. Eastern | WSHNationals | Espino | 1433 | +9 | +0 | =1442 | 40% | 6 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1468 | +22 | +24 | =1514 | 60% | 5 | |
8/8Monday, Aug. 88:05 p.m. Eastern | WSHNationals | Sanchez | 1435 | +12 | –3 | =1444 | 45% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1466 | –8 | +24 | =1482 | 55% | 6 | |
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:20 p.m. Eastern | MIAMarlins | Luzardo | 1479 | –19 | +0 | =1460 | 46% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1468 | –6 | +24 | =1486 | 54% | 0 | |
8/6Saturday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern | MIAMarlins | Lopez | 1481 | +4 | +0 | =1485 | 50% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1466 | –6 | +24 | =1484 | 50% | 4 | |
8/5Friday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern | MIAMarlins | Cabrera | 1482 | –26 | –1 | =1455 | 45% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1465 | +3 | +22 | =1490 | 55% | 2 | |
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:45 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Newcomb | 1467 | –19 | +0 | =1448 | 37% | 2 |
STLCardinals | Quintana | 1518 | –3 | +24 | =1539 | 63% | 7 | |
8/4Thursday, Aug. 41:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1468 | +23 | +2 | =1493 | 40% | 3 |
STLCardinals | Mikolas | 1517 | +19 | +26 | =1562 | 60% | 4 | |
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:45 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1469 | –2 | –2 | =1465 | 37% | 0 |
STLCardinals | Wainwright | 1515 | +23 | +23 | =1561 | 63% | 6 | |
7/31Sunday, July 317 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1471 | –5 | +0 | =1466 | 37% | 0 |
SFGiants | Rodon | 1510 | +20 | +24 | =1554 | 63% | 4 | |
7/30Saturday, July 309:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1471 | –3 | +0 | =1468 | 43% | 4 |
SFGiants | Junis | 1509 | –15 | +24 | =1518 | 57% | 5 | |
7/29Friday, July 2910:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1470 | +20 | +0 | =1490 | 45% | 4 |
SFGiants | Cobb | 1511 | –12 | +24 | =1523 | 55% | 2 | |
7/28Thursday, July 289:45 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1471 | +2 | –2 | =1471 | 43% | 2 |
SFGiants | Wood | 1510 | –8 | +21 | =1523 | 57% | 4 | |
7/26Tuesday, July 262:20 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Wilson | 1435 | –20 | +0 | =1415 | 40% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1470 | –6 | +24 | =1488 | 60% | 4 | |
7/25Monday, July 258:05 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Brubaker | 1436 | +8 | –2 | =1442 | 44% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1469 | –8 | +21 | =1482 | 56% | 3 | |
7/24Sunday, July 2412:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1468 | –5 | +0 | =1463 | 43% | 4 |
PHIPhillies | Falter | 1529 | –42 | +24 | =1511 | 57% | 3 | |
7/23Saturday, July 236:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1465 | +20 | +0 | =1485 | 36% | 6 |
PHIPhillies | Wheeler | 1532 | +26 | +24 | =1582 | 64% | 2 | |
7/22Friday, July 227:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1460 | +4 | +4 | =1468 | 39% | 15 |
PHIPhillies | Gibson | 1537 | –16 | +28 | =1549 | 61% | 2 | |
7/17Sunday, July 172:20 p.m. Eastern | NYMMets | Peterson | 1550 | –20 | +0 | =1530 | 58% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1459 | –7 | +24 | =1476 | 42% | 3 | |
7/16Saturday, July 168:05 p.m. Eastern | NYMMets | Scherzer | 1550 | +42 | +0 | =1592 | 66% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1459 | –4 | +24 | =1479 | 34% | 3 | |
7/16Saturday, July 162:20 p.m. Eastern | NYMMets | Walker | 1549 | +1 | +2 | =1552 | 57% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1460 | +18 | +26 | =1504 | 43% | 1 | |
7/14Thursday, July 148:05 p.m. Eastern | NYMMets | Carrasco | 1546 | –21 | –3 | =1522 | 55% | 8 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1463 | +1 | +24 | =1488 | 45% | 0 | |
7/13Wednesday, July 138:05 p.m. Eastern | BALOrioles | Watkins | 1466 | –17 | +0 | =1449 | 43% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1466 | +5 | +24 | =1495 | 57% | 1 | |
7/12Tuesday, July 128:05 p.m. Eastern | BALOrioles | Lyles | 1464 | +5 | –1 | =1468 | 48% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1467 | –6 | +22 | =1483 | 52% | 2 | |
7/10Sunday, July 104:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1468 | –2 | +0 | =1466 | 29% | 9 |
LADDodgers | Urias | 1595 | +5 | +24 | =1624 | 71% | 11 | |
7/9Saturday, July 910:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1469 | +15 | +0 | =1484 | 31% | 2 |
LADDodgers | Kershaw | 1594 | +6 | +24 | =1624 | 69% | 4 | |
7/8Friday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1469 | –5 | +0 | =1464 | 31% | 3 |
LADDodgers | Anderson | 1594 | –15 | +24 | =1603 | 69% | 4 | |
7/7Thursday, July 710:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Leiter Jr. | 1470 | –22 | –4 | =1444 | 26% | 3 |
LADDodgers | Gonsolin | 1593 | +13 | +24 | =1630 | 74% | 5 | |
7/6Wednesday, July 62:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1468 | –9 | +0 | =1459 | 30% | 2 |
MILBrewers | Burnes | 1537 | +43 | +24 | =1604 | 70% | 1 | |
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1465 | +2 | +0 | =1467 | 40% | 8 |
MILBrewers | Alexander | 1540 | –28 | +24 | =1536 | 60% | 3 | |
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1467 | +1 | –1 | =1467 | 38% | 2 |
MILBrewers | Lauer | 1539 | –13 | +22 | =1548 | 62% | 5 | |
7/3Sunday, July 32:20 p.m. Eastern | BOSRed Sox | Seabold | 1542 | –41 | +0 | =1501 | 52% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1468 | –3 | +24 | =1489 | 48% | 2 | |
7/2Saturday, July 27:15 p.m. Eastern | BOSRed Sox | Winckowski | 1543 | –25 | +0 | =1518 | 56% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Mills | 1466 | –12 | +24 | =1478 | 44% | 3 | |
7/1Friday, July 12:20 p.m. Eastern | BOSRed Sox | Hill | 1544 | –11 | +0 | =1533 | 57% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Sampson | 1465 | –7 | +24 | =1482 | 43% | 6 | |
6/30Thursday, June 308:05 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Ashcraft | 1471 | +6 | +0 | =1477 | 48% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1462 | +1 | +24 | =1487 | 52% | 15 | |
6/29Wednesday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Greene | 1473 | –6 | +0 | =1467 | 48% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1460 | +0 | +24 | =1484 | 52% | 8 | |
6/28Tuesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern | CINReds | Castillo | 1472 | +28 | –2 | =1498 | 52% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1461 | –5 | +24 | =1480 | 48% | 3 | |
6/26Sunday, June 262:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Mills | 1460 | –6 | +0 | =1454 | 37% | 6 |
STLCardinals | Flaherty | 1516 | +9 | +24 | =1549 | 63% | 5 | |
6/25Saturday, June 252:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Sampson | 1461 | –9 | +0 | =1452 | 35% | 3 |
STLCardinals | Mikolas | 1515 | +22 | +24 | =1561 | 65% | 5 | |
6/24Friday, June 248:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1459 | –4 | –3 | =1452 | 38% | 3 |
STLCardinals | Pallante | 1517 | –6 | +22 | =1533 | 62% | 0 | |
6/23Thursday, June 2312:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1460 | +3 | +0 | =1463 | 49% | 7 |
PITPirates | Quintana | 1438 | +5 | +24 | =1467 | 51% | 8 | |
6/22Wednesday, June 227:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1457 | –9 | +0 | =1448 | 50% | 14 |
PITPirates | Eickhoff | 1441 | –16 | +24 | =1449 | 50% | 5 | |
6/21Tuesday, June 217:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Swarmer | 1459 | –14 | +0 | =1445 | 46% | 1 |
PITPirates | Contreras | 1439 | +7 | +24 | =1470 | 54% | 7 | |
6/20Monday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Kilian | 1462 | –10 | –2 | =1450 | 48% | 1 |
PITPirates | Brubaker | 1435 | +2 | +24 | =1461 | 52% | 12 | |
6/19Sunday, June 192:20 p.m. Eastern | ATLBraves | Anderson | 1552 | –9 | +0 | =1543 | 58% | 6 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1464 | –3 | +24 | =1485 | 42% | 0 | |
6/18Saturday, June 182:20 p.m. Eastern | ATLBraves | Wright | 1554 | –11 | +0 | =1543 | 58% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1462 | +1 | +24 | =1487 | 42% | 6 | |
6/17Friday, June 172:20 p.m. Eastern | ATLBraves | Morton | 1555 | +0 | –1 | =1554 | 63% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1461 | –23 | +24 | =1462 | 37% | 1 | |
6/16Thursday, June 162:20 p.m. Eastern | SDPadres | Musgrove | 1552 | +19 | +0 | =1571 | 63% | 6 |
CHCCubs | Swarmer | 1462 | –11 | +24 | =1475 | 37% | 4 | |
6/15Wednesday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern | SDPadres | Weathers | 1548 | –65 | +0 | =1483 | 50% | 19 |
CHCCubs | Kilian | 1466 | –4 | +24 | =1486 | 50% | 5 | |
6/14Tuesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern | SDPadres | Manaea | 1546 | +0 | +0 | =1546 | 58% | 12 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1468 | –6 | +24 | =1486 | 42% | 5 | |
6/13Monday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern | SDPadres | Darvish | 1544 | +3 | –4 | =1543 | 58% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1469 | –3 | +21 | =1487 | 42% | 1 | |
6/12Sunday, June 121:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1471 | –17 | +0 | =1454 | 30% | 4 |
NYYYankees | Taillon | 1579 | –1 | +24 | =1602 | 70% | 18 | |
6/11Saturday, June 117:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Swarmer | 1473 | –2 | +0 | =1471 | 33% | 0 |
NYYYankees | Montgomery | 1577 | –8 | +24 | =1593 | 67% | 8 | |
6/10Friday, June 107:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Miley | 1474 | +4 | +3 | =1481 | 33% | 1 |
NYYYankees | Severino | 1577 | +4 | +21 | =1602 | 67% | 2 | |
6/7Tuesday, June 77:05 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1476 | –6 | –1 | =1469 | 52% | 3 |
BALOrioles | Bradish | 1440 | –10 | +26 | =1456 | 48% | 9 | |
6/5Sunday, June 57 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Wainwright | 1516 | +28 | +0 | =1544 | 57% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1477 | –8 | +24 | =1493 | 43% | 3 | |
6/4Saturday, June 47:15 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Pallante | 1515 | –16 | +0 | =1499 | 51% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Kilian | 1479 | –10 | +24 | =1493 | 49% | 4 | |
6/4Saturday, June 41:20 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Oviedo | 1517 | –28 | +0 | =1489 | 49% | 1 |
CHCCubs | Swarmer | 1477 | –9 | +24 | =1492 | 51% | 6 | |
6/3Friday, June 32:20 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Mikolas | 1514 | +13 | +0 | =1527 | 50% | 14 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1480 | +22 | +24 | =1526 | 50% | 5 | |
6/2Thursday, June 28:05 p.m. Eastern | STLCardinals | Liberatore | 1515 | –17 | –2 | =1496 | 50% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1479 | –7 | +24 | =1496 | 50% | 7 | |
6/1Wednesday, June 18:05 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Alexander | 1546 | –40 | +0 | =1506 | 52% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1478 | –10 | +24 | =1492 | 48% | 4 | |
5/31Tuesday, May 318:05 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Lauer | 1547 | –4 | +0 | =1543 | 58% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1476 | –9 | +24 | =1491 | 42% | 8 | |
5/30Monday, May 307:40 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Ashby | 1546 | –39 | +0 | =1507 | 52% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1478 | –6 | +24 | =1496 | 48% | 1 | |
5/30Monday, May 301:05 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Small | 1545 | –40 | –2 | =1503 | 52% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Swarmer | 1479 | –10 | +23 | =1492 | 48% | 6 | |
5/29Sunday, May 292:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1479 | +19 | +0 | =1498 | 42% | 4 |
CHWWhite Sox | Cease | 1523 | +10 | +24 | =1557 | 58% | 5 | |
5/28Saturday, May 287:15 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1477 | –9 | +0 | =1468 | 40% | 5 |
CHWWhite Sox | Cueto | 1525 | –12 | +26 | =1539 | 60% | 1 | |
5/26Thursday, May 2612:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1481 | +0 | +0 | =1481 | 48% | 5 |
CINReds | Greene | 1475 | –4 | +24 | =1495 | 52% | 20 | |
5/25Wednesday, May 256:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1482 | –7 | +0 | =1475 | 42% | 3 |
CINReds | Castillo | 1474 | +31 | +24 | =1529 | 58% | 4 | |
5/24Tuesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1479 | +17 | +0 | =1496 | 47% | 11 |
CINReds | Mahle | 1477 | +18 | +24 | =1519 | 53% | 4 | |
5/23Monday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1477 | –7 | –2 | =1468 | 49% | 7 |
CINReds | Gutierrez | 1479 | –23 | +22 | =1478 | 51% | 4 | |
5/22Sunday, May 222:20 p.m. Eastern | ARIDiamondbacks | Kelly | 1466 | +8 | +0 | =1474 | 46% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Miley | 1476 | +3 | +24 | =1503 | 54% | 5 | |
5/21Saturday, May 212:20 p.m. Eastern | ARIDiamondbacks | Bumgarner | 1465 | –1 | +0 | =1464 | 45% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1478 | –6 | +24 | =1496 | 55% | 6 | |
5/20Friday, May 202:20 p.m. Eastern | ARIDiamondbacks | Castellanos | 1462 | –14 | +0 | =1448 | 42% | 10 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1480 | +1 | +24 | =1505 | 58% | 6 | |
5/19Thursday, May 197:40 p.m. Eastern | ARIDiamondbacks | Gallen | 1461 | +31 | –4 | =1488 | 45% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1482 | +16 | +24 | =1522 | 55% | 1 | |
5/18Wednesday, May 187:40 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Crowe | 1437 | –11 | +0 | =1426 | 39% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1483 | –6 | +24 | =1501 | 61% | 2 | |
5/17Tuesday, May 177:40 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Brubaker | 1439 | +2 | +0 | =1441 | 44% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Thompson | 1481 | –18 | +24 | =1487 | 56% | 7 | |
5/16Monday, May 167:40 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Peters | 1442 | –1 | –2 | =1439 | 42% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Miley | 1478 | –4 | +20 | =1494 | 58% | 9 | |
5/15Sunday, May 154:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1477 | –10 | +0 | =1467 | 49% | 3 |
ARIDiamondbacks | Castellanos | 1465 | –18 | +24 | =1471 | 51% | 2 | |
5/14Saturday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1475 | +2 | +0 | =1477 | 45% | 4 |
ARIDiamondbacks | Gallen | 1467 | +25 | +24 | =1516 | 55% | 2 | |
5/13Friday, May 139:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1477 | –2 | +0 | =1475 | 51% | 3 |
ARIDiamondbacks | Davies | 1466 | –27 | +26 | =1465 | 49% | 4 | |
5/11Wednesday, May 114:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Thompson | 1475 | –14 | +0 | =1461 | 42% | 7 |
SDPadres | Martinez | 1536 | –42 | +24 | =1518 | 58% | 5 | |
5/10Tuesday, May 109:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Miley | 1475 | +0 | +0 | =1475 | 35% | 4 |
SDPadres | Clevinger | 1535 | +24 | +24 | =1583 | 65% | 5 | |
5/9Monday, May 99:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1472 | –6 | –4 | =1462 | 38% | 6 |
SDPadres | Gore | 1538 | –12 | +24 | =1550 | 62% | 0 | |
5/8Sunday, May 87 p.m. Eastern | LADDodgers | Buehler | 1594 | +10 | +0 | =1604 | 67% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1474 | –13 | +24 | =1485 | 33% | 1 | |
5/7Saturday, May 77:40 p.m. Eastern | LADDodgers | Anderson | 1593 | –30 | +0 | =1563 | 59% | 6 |
CHCCubs | Norris | 1475 | +3 | +24 | =1502 | 41% | 2 | |
5/7Saturday, May 71:05 p.m. Eastern | LADDodgers | Kershaw | 1591 | +10 | +1 | =1602 | 64% | 7 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1477 | +0 | +29 | =1506 | 36% | 0 | |
5/4Wednesday, May 47:40 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | Giolito | 1529 | +24 | +0 | =1553 | 58% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1478 | –4 | +24 | =1498 | 42% | 3 | |
5/3Tuesday, May 37:40 p.m. Eastern | CHWWhite Sox | Kopech | 1528 | +5 | –1 | =1532 | 55% | 3 |
CHCCubs | Effross | 1479 | –8 | +25 | =1496 | 45% | 1 | |
5/1Sunday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1477 | +14 | +0 | =1491 | 34% | 2 |
MILBrewers | Burnes | 1546 | +35 | +24 | =1605 | 66% | 0 | |
4/30Saturday, April 307:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1479 | –9 | +0 | =1470 | 38% | 1 |
MILBrewers | Lauer | 1544 | –12 | +24 | =1556 | 62% | 9 | |
4/29Friday, April 298:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1482 | +2 | –3 | =1481 | 41% | 1 |
MILBrewers | Houser | 1541 | –17 | +22 | =1546 | 59% | 11 | |
4/28Thursday, April 287:20 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1483 | –1 | +0 | =1482 | 42% | 1 |
ATLBraves | Wright | 1542 | –26 | +24 | =1540 | 58% | 5 | |
4/27Wednesday, April 277:20 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Leiter Jr. | 1481 | –25 | +0 | =1456 | 33% | 6 |
ATLBraves | Morton | 1545 | +12 | +24 | =1581 | 67% | 3 | |
4/26Tuesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1482 | +12 | –1 | =1493 | 36% | 1 |
ATLBraves | Fried | 1544 | +24 | +26 | =1594 | 64% | 3 | |
4/24Sunday, April 242:20 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Brubaker | 1444 | +3 | +0 | =1447 | 42% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1483 | –7 | +24 | =1500 | 58% | 3 | |
4/23Saturday, April 232:20 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Thompson | 1449 | +11 | +0 | =1460 | 44% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1478 | –3 | +24 | =1499 | 56% | 21 | |
4/22Friday, April 228:05 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Quintana | 1447 | –2 | +0 | =1445 | 41% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Smyly | 1480 | +2 | +24 | =1506 | 59% | 2 | |
4/21Thursday, April 217:40 p.m. Eastern | PITPirates | Wilson | 1446 | +0 | –1 | =1445 | 45% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Leiter Jr. | 1481 | –26 | +24 | =1479 | 55% | 3 | |
4/20Wednesday, April 206:30 p.m. Eastern | TBRays | Rasmussen | 1526 | +10 | +0 | =1536 | 52% | 8 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1483 | +18 | +24 | =1525 | 48% | 2 | |
4/19Tuesday, April 197:40 p.m. Eastern | TBRays | Wisler | 1525 | –11 | +0 | =1514 | 51% | 6 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1484 | –1 | +24 | =1507 | 49% | 5 | |
4/18Monday, April 187:40 p.m. Eastern | TBRays | McClanahan | 1527 | +16 | –1 | =1542 | 56% | 2 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1483 | –7 | +21 | =1497 | 44% | 4 | |
4/17Sunday, April 173:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1482 | –4 | +0 | =1478 | 48% | 6 |
COLRockies | Gomber | 1471 | –5 | +24 | =1490 | 52% | 4 | |
4/16Saturday, April 168:10 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Leiter Jr. | 1483 | –22 | +0 | =1461 | 44% | 6 |
COLRockies | Senzatela | 1470 | +6 | +24 | =1500 | 56% | 9 | |
4/15Friday, April 158:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Stroman | 1484 | +19 | +0 | =1503 | 49% | 5 |
COLRockies | Marquez | 1469 | +21 | +24 | =1514 | 51% | 6 | |
4/14Thursday, April 148:40 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Steele | 1482 | –5 | –3 | =1474 | 46% | 5 |
COLRockies | Freeland | 1470 | +6 | +23 | =1499 | 54% | 2 | |
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1484 | –2 | +0 | =1482 | 49% | 2 |
PITPirates | Thompson | 1445 | +19 | +24 | =1488 | 51% | 6 | |
4/12Tuesday, April 124:12 p.m. Eastern | CHCCubs | Smyly | 1483 | –9 | +0 | =1474 | 51% | 2 |
PITPirates | Quintana | 1446 | –4 | +23 | =1465 | 49% | 1 | |
4/10Sunday, April 102:20 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Peralta | 1537 | +4 | +0 | =1541 | 52% | 5 |
CHCCubs | Stroman | 1484 | +19 | +24 | =1527 | 48% | 4 | |
4/9Saturday, April 92:20 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Woodruff | 1540 | +16 | +2 | =1558 | 59% | 0 |
CHCCubs | Steele | 1480 | –11 | +26 | =1495 | 41% | 9 | |
4/7Thursday, April 72:20 p.m. Eastern | MILBrewers | Burnes | 1542 | +32 | –1 | =1573 | 60% | 4 |
CHCCubs | Hendricks | 1479 | –2 | +24 | =1501 | 40% | 5 |
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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