Updated Nov. 5, 2022, at 11:22 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

Completed games

DateTeamStarting pitcherTeam ratingStarting pitcher adj.Travel, rest & home field adj.Pregame team ratingWin prob.Chance of winningScore
11/5Saturday, Nov. 58:03 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1546+321=157742%1
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1589+5+23=161758%4
11/3Thursday, Nov. 38:03 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1588+23+0=161160%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
154816+24=155640%2
11/2Wednesday, Nov. 28:03 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
1585+13+0=159850%5
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1551+21+24=159650%0
11/1Tuesday, Nov. 18:03 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15903+2=158954%0
PHIPHIPhillies
Suarez, Ranger
Suarez
15467+26=156546%7
10/29Saturday, Oct. 298:03 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1549+38+0=158745%2
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1587+2+24=161355%5
10/28Friday, Oct. 288:03 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1547+26+4=157737%6
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1589+26+28=164363%5
10/23Sunday, Oct. 238:30 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15881+0=158745%6
NYYNYYYankees
Cortes, Nestor
Cortes
1569+17+24=161055%5
10/23Sunday, Oct. 232:37 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1534+28+0=156242%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1545+36+24=160558%4
10/22Saturday, Oct. 227:45 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
15378+0=152947%6
PHIPHIPhillies
Falter, Bailey
Falter
154321+24=154653%10
10/22Saturday, Oct. 225:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
Javier, Cristian
Javier
1584+91=159246%5
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1573+16+23=161254%0
10/21Friday, Oct. 217:37 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1539+162=155351%2
PHIPHIPhillies
Suarez, Ranger
Suarez
154012+22=155049%4
10/20Thursday, Oct. 207:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1574+6+0=158045%2
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15831+24=160655%3
10/19Wednesday, Oct. 197:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
157683=156537%2
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1581+26+27=163463%4
10/19Wednesday, Oct. 194:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1543+32+0=157550%5
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1537+16+24=157750%8
10/18Tuesday, Oct. 188:03 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1541+31+1=157346%2
SDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1539+26+29=159454%0
10/18Tuesday, Oct. 184:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEGuardians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
153010+0=152033%1
NYYNYYYankees
Cortes, Nestor
Cortes
1574+16+24=161467%5
10/16Sunday, Oct. 167:07 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1572+15+0=158756%4
CLECLEGuardians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
15322+24=155444%2
10/15Saturday, Oct. 159:37 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1610+3+0=161357%3
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1537+16+24=157743%5
10/15Saturday, Oct. 157:37 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1574+72=157950%5
CLECLEGuardians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
1530+28+22=158050%6
10/15Saturday, Oct. 154:07 p.m. EasternHOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
158022=157655%1
SEASEAMariners
Kirby, George
Kirby
1525+4+22=155145%0
10/15Saturday, Oct. 152:07 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Morton, Charlie
Morton
15751+0=157456%3
PHIPHIPhillies
Syndergaard, Noah
Syndergaard
153719+24=154244%8
10/14Friday, Oct. 148:37 p.m. EasternLADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1612+13+1=162660%1
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1534+16+25=157540%2
10/14Friday, Oct. 144:37 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Strider, Spencer
Strider
1580+251=160453%1
PHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1532+33+23=158847%9
10/14Friday, Oct. 141:07 p.m. EasternCLECLEGuardians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1528+32+5=156539%4
NYYNYYYankees
Cortes, Nestor
Cortes
1576+19+29=162461%2
10/13Thursday, Oct. 133:37 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1527+35+2=156442%2
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
1578+0+26=160458%4
10/12Wednesday, Oct. 128:37 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1531+31+0=156233%5
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1615+17+24=165667%3
10/12Wednesday, Oct. 124:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1534+31+0=156544%0
ATLATLBraves
Wright, Kyle
Wright
15787+24=159556%3
10/11Tuesday, Oct. 119:37 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Clevinger, Mike
Clevinger
153242=152626%3
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
1614+15+31=166074%5
10/11Tuesday, Oct. 117:37 p.m. EasternCLECLEGuardians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1529+0+3=153234%1
NYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1575+13+28=161666%4
10/11Tuesday, Oct. 113:37 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Gilbert, Logan
Gilbert
1528+14+2=154432%7
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1577+35+31=164368%8
10/11Tuesday, Oct. 111:07 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Suarez, Ranger
Suarez
15329+3=152630%7
ATLATLBraves
Fried, Max
Fried
1581+27+28=163670%6
10/9Sunday, Oct. 97:07 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1528+10+0=153842%6
NYMNYMMets
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1550+6+24=158058%0
10/8Saturday, Oct. 88:37 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1530+31+0=156150%2
STLSTLCardinals
Mikolas, Miles
Mikolas
1525+12+24=156150%0
10/8Saturday, Oct. 87:37 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1530+19+0=154936%3
NYMNYMMets
deGrom, Jacob
deGrom
1548+53+24=162564%7
10/8Saturday, Oct. 84:07 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1526+11+0=153740%10
TORTORBlue Jays
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1548+16+24=158860%9
10/8Saturday, Oct. 812:07 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1528+21+0=154945%0
CLECLEGuardians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
1528+25+24=157755%1
10/7Friday, Oct. 78:07 p.m. EasternSDSDPadres
Darvish, Yu
Darvish
1525+302=155337%7
NYMNYMMets
Scherzer, Max
Scherzer
1553+41+26=162063%1
10/7Friday, Oct. 74:07 p.m. EasternSEASEAMariners
Castillo, Luis
Castillo
1522+312=155138%4
TORTORBlue Jays
Manoah, Alek
Manoah
1552+37+24=161362%0
10/7Friday, Oct. 72:07 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1527+301=155648%6
STLSTLCardinals
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1528+14+23=156552%3
10/7Friday, Oct. 712:07 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
McClanahan, Shane
McClanahan
1530+171=154643%1
CLECLEGuardians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1526+31+26=158357%2
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:20 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Gomber, Austin
Gomber
14543+0=145124%1
LADLADDodgers
Kershaw, Clayton
Kershaw
1613+17+24=165476%6
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Alexander, Tyler
Alexander
14589+0=144938%4
SEASEAMariners
Gonzales, Marco
Gonzales
152115+24=153062%5
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Brebbia, John
Brebbia (open)
1506+14+0=152048%8
SDSDPadres
Stammen, Craig
Stammen
152731+24=152052%1
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Fedde, Erick
Fedde
14341+0=143334%2
NYMNYMMets
Williams, Trevor
Williams
155128+24=154766%9
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Kelly, Merrill
Kelly
1480+12+0=149238%4
MILMILBrewers
Burnes, Corbin
Burnes
1526+27+24=157762%2
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Falter, Bailey
Falter
152818+0=151038%2
HOUHOUAstros
Valdez, Framber
Valdez
15776+24=159562%3
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Stephens, Jackson
Stephens
158337+0=154663%9
MIAMIAMarlins
Hernandez, Elieser
Hernandez
147039+24=145537%12
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Heasley, Jonathan
Heasley
145512+0=144337%2
CLECLEGuardians
Civale, Aaron
Civale
152510+24=153963%9
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Sampson, Adrian
Sampson
14772+0=147551%15
CINCINReds
Ashcraft, Graham
Ashcraft
145510+24=146949%2
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Varland, Louie
Varland
149516+0=147946%10
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Martin, Davis
Martin
150821+24=151154%1
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Fleming, Josh
Fleming
153146+0=148544%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Pivetta, Nick
Pivetta
15042+24=152656%6
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
German, Domingo
German
157712+0=156561%2
TEXTEXRangers
Otto, Glenn
Otto
14612+24=148339%4
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Liberatore, Matthew
Liberatore
153022+0=150858%3
PITPITPirates
Oviedo, Johan
Oviedo
14316+24=144942%5
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Phelps, David
Phelps
155016+0=153456%5
BALBALOrioles
Watkins, Spenser
Watkins
148717+24=149444%1
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Ohtani, Shohei
Ohtani
1498+40+0=153861%2
OAKOAKAthletics
Waldichuk, Ken
Waldichuk
14382+24=146039%3
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 512:35 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Richards, Trevor
Richards (open)
1551+12+2=156560%4
BALBALOrioles
Baumann, Mike
Baumann
148514+26=149740%5
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 410:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Vest, Will
Vest
145913+0=144641%6
SEASEAMariners
Sheffield, Justus
Sheffield
152037+24=150759%9
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 410:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Feltner, Ryan
Feltner
145111+0=144022%5
LADLADDodgers
Urias, Julio
Urias
1617+18+24=165978%2
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 49:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Cobb, Alex
Cobb
1508+0+0=150849%2
SDSDPadres
Manaea, Sean
Manaea
152532+24=151751%6
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 49:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Lorenzen, Michael
Lorenzen
149911+0=148853%1
OAKOAKAthletics
Irvin, Cole
Irvin
1437+3+24=146447%2
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Espino, Paolo
Espino
1436+11+0=144734%0
NYMNYMMets
Walker, Taijuan
Walker
155014+24=156066%8
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Suarez, Ranger
Suarez
1530+0+0=153036%0
HOUHOUAstros
Verlander, Justin
Verlander
1575+33+24=163264%10
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Winder, Josh
Winder
149710+0=148745%3
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Giolito, Lucas
Giolito
15069+24=152155%8
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 48:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Cole, Gerrit
Cole
1578+12+0=159063%2
TEXTEXRangers
Tinoco, Jesus
Tinoco (open)
1460+13+24=149737%3
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Gallen, Zac
Gallen
1482+51+0=153349%0
MILMILBrewers
Lauer, Eric
Lauer
152512+24=153751%3
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 47:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Springs, Jeffrey
Springs
1533+9+0=154251%0
BOSBOSRed Sox
Eovaldi, Nathan
Eovaldi
1501+13+24=153849%6
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Odorizzi, Jake
Odorizzi
158228+0=155461%2
MIAMIAMarlins
Garrett, Braxton
Garrett
147117+24=147839%1
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Assad, Javier
Assad
147816+0=146249%2
CINCINReds
Cessa, Luis
Cessa
145411+24=146751%3
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:35 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Hudson, Dakota
Hudson
15297+0=152260%8
PITPITPirates
Brubaker, JT
Brubaker
14324+24=145240%7
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Rodriguez, Eduardo
Rodriguez
1460+10+0=147041%6
SEASEAMariners
Flexen, Chris
Flexen
15198+24=153559%7
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Lynch, Daniel
Lynch
14568+0=144836%3
CLECLEGuardians
Quantrill, Cal
Quantrill
1524+0+24=154864%5
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 44:10 p.m. EasternWSHWSHNationals
Abbott, Cory
Abbott
1436+3+0=143934%2
NYMNYMMets
Carrasco, Carlos
Carrasco
154920+23=155266%4
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 42:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Taillon, Jameson
Taillon
15777+0=157060%5
TEXTEXRangers
Gray, Jon
Gray
1461+19+24=150440%4
10/3Monday, Oct. 310:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Urena, Jose
Urena
144819+0=142921%2
LADLADDodgers
Gonsolin, Tony
Gonsolin
1619+15+24=165879%1
10/3Monday, Oct. 39:40 p.m. EasternDETDETTigers
Garcia, Bryan
Garcia
145964=144936%4
SEASEAMariners
Kirby, George
Kirby
1521+7+24=155264%3
10/3Monday, Oct. 39:40 p.m. EasternSFSFGiants
Brebbia, John
Brebbia (open)
1509+32=151044%4
SDSDPadres
Musgrove, Joe
Musgrove
1524+6+24=155456%7
10/3Monday, Oct. 39:40 p.m. EasternLAALAAAngels
Sandoval, Patrick
Sandoval
1500+32=150159%4
OAKOAKAthletics
Martinez, Adrian
Martinez
143616+21=144141%5
10/3Monday, Oct. 38:10 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Nola, Aaron
Nola
1528+253=155043%3
HOUHOUAstros
McCullers Jr., Lance
McCullers Jr.
15762+24=159857%0
10/3Monday, Oct. 38:10 p.m. EasternMINMINTwins
Ober, Bailey
Ober
1498+142=151048%2
CHWCHWWhite Sox
Cueto, Johnny
Cueto
15053+20=152252%3
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:40 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Henry, Tommy
Henry
1483354=144432%5
MILMILBrewers
Woodruff, Brandon
Woodruff
1524+28+24=157668%6
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Glasnow, Tyler
Glasnow
1535+204=155154%3
BOSBOSRed Sox
Hill, Rich
Hill
1500+4+22=152646%4
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. EasternNYYNYYYankees
Severino, Luis
Severino
1576+13=157459%3
TEXTEXRangers
Perez, Martin
Perez
1462+28+21=151141%1
10/3Monday, Oct. 37:05 p.m. EasternTORTORBlue Jays
Berrios, Jose
Berrios
1550192=152953%5
BALBALOrioles
Kremer, Dean
Kremer
1487+2+22=151147%1
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. EasternATLATLBraves
Elder, Bryce
Elder
158593=157363%0
MIAMIAMarlins
Luzardo, Jesus
Luzardo
14687+21=148237%4
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:40 p.m. EasternCHCCHCCubs
Wesneski, Hayden
Wesneski
148042=147448%1
CINCINReds
Greene, Hunter
Greene
1452+16+22=149052%3
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:35 p.m. EasternSTLSTLCardinals
Quintana, Jose
Quintana
1530+113=153861%2
PITPITPirates
Keller, Mitch
Keller
1430+8+21=145939%3
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Greinke, Zack
Greinke
1453+10+0=146334%5
CLECLEGuardians
McKenzie, Triston
McKenzie
1526+26+24=157666%2
10/2Sunday, Oct. 27 p.m. EasternNYMNYMMets
Bassitt, Chris
Bassitt
1550+8+0=155843%3
ATLATLBraves
Morton, Charlie
Morton
1584+0+24=160857%5
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:10 p.m. EasternOAKOAKAthletics
Kaprielian, James
Kaprielian
1432+12+0=144433%10
SEASEAMariners
Ray, Robbie
Ray
1525+16+24=156567%3
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:10 p.m. EasternCHWCHWWhite Sox
Lynn, Lance
Lynn
1504+11+0=151542%2
SDSDPadres
Snell, Blake
Snell
1525+19+24=156858%1
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:10 p.m. EasternCOLCOLRockies
Marquez, German
Marquez
1445+11+0=145625%4
LADLADDodgers
Anderson, Tyler
Anderson
1622+2+24=164875%1
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:07 p.m. EasternTEXTEXRangers
Miller, Tyson
Miller
146425+0=143943%3
LAALAAAngels
Davidson, Tucker
Davidson
149837+24=148557%8
10/2Sunday, Oct. 24:05 p.m. EasternARIARIDiamondbacks
Davies, Zach
Davies
148319+0=146440%3
SFSFGiants
Alexander, Scott
Alexander (open)
1509+3+24=153660%4
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:20 p.m. EasternCINCINReds
Anderson, Chase
Anderson
14546+0=144840%1
CHCCHCCubs
Stroman, Marcus
Stroman
1478+19+24=152160%8
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:15 p.m. EasternPITPITPirates
Contreras, Roansy
Contreras
1428+10+0=143833%7
STLSTLCardinals
Wainwright, Adam
Wainwright
1532+7+24=156367%5
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. EasternMIAMIAMarlins
Lopez, Pablo
Lopez
14676+0=146136%4
MILMILBrewers
Peralta, Freddy
Peralta
1525+12+24=156164%3
10/2Sunday, Oct. 22:10 p.m. EasternTBTBRays
Kluber, Corey
Kluber
15369+0=152742%1
HOUHOUAstros
Garcia, Luis
Garcia
157517+24=158258%3
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. EasternKCKCRoyals
Castillo, Max
Castillo
145410+0=144431%5
CLECLEGuardians
Bieber, Shane
Bieber
1525+34+24=158369%7
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:37 p.m. EasternBOSBOSRed Sox
Wacha, Michael
Wacha
1501+15+0=151640%3
TORTORBlue Jays
Gausman, Kevin
Gausman
1548+17+24=158960%6
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:35 p.m. EasternPHIPHIPhillies
Wheeler, Zack
Wheeler
1526+27+0=155364%8
WSHWSHNationals
Corbin, Patrick
Corbin
14386+24=145636%1

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.